After 27 games you think you get to know a team. You see how the win (or lose) games, and recognize their strengths and weaknesses, the strategies they employ to maximize their chances. And for the Bears it’s been a pretty simple formula. Rebounding, defense, rebounding, interior scoring, rebounding. Rinse and repeat.

And then the Bears went on the road to play Oregon and Oregon State and over two games they went 15-28 from three and made 39 free throws. If I were asked what Cal’s biggest weaknesses are, I would probably have said either long range shooting or free throw shooting – and yet the Bears won in large part because they succeeded in a new way.

Granted, Cal made 39 free throws in part because they shot 57 total. Still, Cal entered the weekend shooting 53.4% from the line but shot 68.4% against the Ducks and Beavers. Cal beat Oregon State by seven. If the Bears had shot their usual free throw percentage they would have made six or seven fewer attempts. If they had shot below their usual percentage, they might have lost.

The question is if Cal’s sudden shooting prowess is the start of a trend or just random chance. Perhaps we shouldn’t be completely surprised by Cal’s three point shooting binge up north. We know that many teams will attempt to crowd the paint as much as possible to stop Cal’s post players from dominating inside. And we also know that Cal has punished a few other teams for completely disrespecting their outside shooting (Stanford and St. Mary’s come to mind). And we especially know that Oregon’s defense generally is not very good, and that they are prone to leaving shooters wide open.

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When: 2:00 pm PT
Audio Stream: Cal Bears All-Access
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It's (hypothetically speaking) the last game ever that Cal fans won't be able to watch in some capacity! Unfortunately, it should be game well worth watching, because the continually surprising Beavers are one of a handful of teams still in contention for 2nd place in the Pac-12 behind likely conference coach of the year Scott Rueck.

Simply put, if Cal wins they'll earn the 2 seed in the Pac-12 tournament. A two or three game lead with three to play and Cal's rivals all playing each other is a pretty safe scenario. But if OSU wins they'll be just a game back with Cal having Stanford left on the schedule. The good news is that Cal played one of their best games of the year in beating Oregon State in Berkeley. If the Bears can duplicate that performance they'll feel pretty good about themselves as they head into a three game homestand to finish the season.

But prior to losing to Stanford the Beavers had won six straight Pac-12 contests. For the 2nd year in a row Coach Rueck has his team playing better ball at the end of the season than at the beginning. For that reason and because Cal is playing in Corvallis, I would be delighted if the Bears won the game by anywhere near the margin they won in Berkeley. Go Bears!

When: 7:00 pm PT
Radio Stream: Cal All-Access
Video Stream: GoDucks.TV ($$$)
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After losing like that against USC, the Bears should be plenty motivated to start another win streak. And although they are on the road, I could think of few teams better suited for just that purpose than Oregon. The Bears should be heavy favorites today because the Ducks have struggled this season and because Cal has matched up very well against them since Paul Westhead took over.

Except . . . Oregon has been on something of a hot streak. It started with a rather shocking 21 point win over UCLA. The Ducks have since added three more wins over Utah, Colorado and Washington State and their two most recent losses were competitive games decided by single figures. It’s probably not a coincidence that most of this run came with Amanda Johnson’s return from injury.

So I’m not going to assume a win today, especially since the Bears didn’t look their sharpest at home last week. If Cal can run with the Ducks and hold down Johnson they’ll probably escape Matt Court with a comfortable win. But we all remember Cal’s trip to Tucson – the Bears aren’t so dominant that road victories can be assumed. They’ll have to play well to earn this one.

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With 1:50 left in overtime I started thinking about how to describe Cal's two home games against UCLA and USC, and settled on something along the lines of 'living the charmed life.' Cal beat UCLA despite 21 turnovers in part because the Bruins barely hit 50% of their free throws. Cal seemed poised to somehow beat USC because the Trojans missed seven free throws in the last seven minutes and the Bears hit a miracle three. It looked like the Bears were going to survive two games in which they only intermittently played up to their own abilities against two teams that have given them constant fits.

Then their luck and composure suddenly deserted them. It took just about every little thing going a certain way in the last minute for Cal to tie the game. It took everything going the exact opposite way for USC to somehow surmount a seven point deficit in under two minutes. It happened because a freshman point guard averaging 5 points, a 32% field goal percentage and a 24% three point percentage when absolutely unconscious.

It's a weird position to be in - I felt that Cal was profoundly lucky to be in overtime, but then became profoundly unlucky to lose. When you add up everything that happened in both games a split is probably what the Bears deserved, but it's hard not to look at the play-by-play against USC and wonder what might have been if Cal's two best perimeter defenders didn't foul out, or what might have happened if Talia Caldwell and Reshanda Gray don't have to play with four fouls, or what might have happened if the refs don't call a dubious offensive foul on Layshia Clarendon with 18 seconds left.

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When: 8:00 PT
TV: FSN/CSNBA
Audio Stream: Cal All-Access
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Cal’s critical three game stretch is two thirds over, and so far so good. In fact, Cal has been so good at taking care of business and USC has been on such a slump that this game no longer seems any more important than any other game left on the schedule. Heck, a road trip to Corvallis seems scarier!

Of course, this game still matters for a few reasons. Firstly, USC is still in the RPI top 50 and is likely to stay there, so it’s still a valuable resume win. Secondly, Cal needs to win every game they should win to maximize their tournament seed.

And perhaps most importantly, this is Cal’s chance to avenge their only blowout loss of the season. Only one team has beaten Cal by more than 5 points, and that was USC by 20. Taking it to the Trojans would send a powerful message about how much the Bears have improved. Since that loss to USC the Bears have won 9 games by an average margin of 12 points, with just one overtime loss to Stanford mixed in. I don’t know how much stock the selection committee puts into ‘finishing strong’ but Cal is in position to finish very strongly. Beating USC and showing improvement from the first half of the season has to be a part of that.

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When: 7:00 PT
Audio Stream: Cal All-Access
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I don’t get UCLA. After all of the roster carnage they have just seven healthy players left, and they didn’t look very good against a tough non-conference schedule. And yet here they are, sitting at 7-4 in conference with a viable shot at 2^nd place. How?! Well, some of it is being a bit lucky, as UCLA has won two overtime games and two other games that were one possession contests within the final minute.

But there’s no denying that the Bruins have improved as the season progressed, led by the contributions of senior Rebekah Gardner and junior Marcel Walker. The emergence of sophomore guard Thea Lemberger has been the other key to UCLA’s upswing in conference play.

Still, this just isn’t the same Nikki-Caldwell-led team that has beaten Cal seven straight times. It’s not Cori Close’s fault that the Bruins lost so many players to graduation or injury, but this is still a team that plays seven deep with four inexperienced underclassmen. They don’t defend like they did under Caldwell, and they aren’t as efficient on offense. Walker and Gardner are good enough to hide many weaknesses, but this is still a team Cal should have beaten in January, and should beat tonight. The UCLA losing streak ends now.

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It wasn’t easy, it wasn’t always fun, but when the dust settled the Bears finished the weekend 2-0, earning their single most important win of the season in the process. Phew.

The Arizona game should never have gone to overtime. Between the double digit second half lead and two golden opportunities to win in regulation, the Bears at least showed plenty of resolve to not let down in overtime and avoid a potentially crippling bad loss. But the Arizona State game was a joy – a well executed game between two solid teams, with Cal emerging with the road win.

The sweep sets up a weekend that is still hugely important, though the luster has been somewhat tarnished by USC’s surprising 1-4 record in their last five conference games. Here is a list of things Cal can earn with a home sweep:

-Potentially two more wins over top-50 RPI opponents, which would push Cal’s record against those types of teams to a respectable 4-6
-An absolute death grip on second place in the conference. If Stanford also sweeps as expected, that would give Cal at least two game lead over ASU and OSU, a three game lead over UCLA and a four game lead over USC. Even a loss to Stanford wouldn’t by itself move Cal out of second place.
-A likely top 25 ranking in one or more polls, which isn’t necessarily meaningful but sounds cool and builds excitement.

Put simply, a sweep would put Cal in an ideal spot with just five games left in the regular season. With four eminently winnable games against Oregon, Oregon St., Colorado and Utah, a 14-4 conference record would be conceivable. And if Cal finished with that record a tournament seed around 6 wouldn’t surprise me. Add in a win against Stanford at Haas or in the Pac-12 tournament and . . . wait, this has to stop. I’m getting waaaaaaay too far ahead of myself. For any of these things to happen Cal needs to beat two teams that they have already lost to this year. Time to take care of business.

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When: 1:00 pm PT
Video Stream: Fox Sports Arizona
Audio Stream: Cal Bears All-Access
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I was worried we wouldn't be able to watch one of the biggest games left in the season, but evidently Fox Sports Arizona is coming up huge for us! Only two more road games before the Pac-12 network!

Maybe catching last place Arizona in between huge games with Stanford and Arizona St. was a formula for a let-down, but the bottom line is that Cal survived, which preserves much of the excitement fans should have for today’s game against the 3^rd place, 15-6 (6-4) Sun Devils.

It’s tough to overstate how important this game is. For one thing, it’s arguably Cal’s toughest non-Stanford game left on the schedule. If Cal wins they move up to 8-3 in the Pac-12 with a favorable schedule left. This game is the first of just three more road games on the schedule, and a trip to Oregon isn’t especially intimidating. Win and 2^nd place in the conference looks likely. Lose and Cal falls back into the jumble with ASU, USC and UCLA. Gaining separation from the pack is a key to securing a solid NCAA seed

My main concern (for the first time this year!) is depth and energy. Cal played an exhausting game against Stanford on Saturday, then played an exhausting game against Arizona on Thursday, and they did it with Gennifer Brandon sick. Five players had to play 29 minutes or more and if Gennifer isn’t able to play her usual minutes we might have a very tired team on our hands.

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