thanks feva.

Actually this post started as “My Apology to Nate”... I was one of those dicks that railed him on the rivals and scout boards and I though I would apologize and make him a Highlight reel… since none has ever been made for him. Kinda like a mix tape but less… um… romantic.

But as I watched the games for clips I started recording some stats… next thing you know it turned into this monster!

Like in sports gambling where there is a handicapping element there should be some discounting factor for stats like PassEff that accounts for strength of defense. That’s why it pisses me off when the SEC schedules such ducks when they can play eachother.

BUT… any idea as to how I would accomplish this? I gave it some thought and determined that it would take mucho time and be problematic eg do I adjust for home vs away… or defense ranking at the time of the game or overall at the end of the year etc… yikes!

True it was pouring at the USC07 game but Nate still had 28 attempts.. his avg is 31 per game. Of course it’s more difficult to catch in the rain but hawk still made a spectacular diving catch in the 4th quarter.. i think his best ever.

I am guessing I know who voted Nate’s interceptions!

I was getting killed at work so that’s why I was gone for a while.

You’re right, of course, stats do not tell the whole story… that’s why I advocate re-watching the film, which I did to interpret the stats…eg Washington State07 was Nate’s worst game of his career but we won. We used to speculate that Nate is bad in the second half but I personally saw it over and over again with my own eyes and it confirmed the trends. It’s the one thing that was stamped into my head after my film work.

However, when it comes to INTs my analysis does prove that his 4th quarter INT tendency wasn’t there in 2006 (when we were ahead in most games early), but this is where the film fills in the gaps where he does play badly, in general, in the 2H… on film… you make a good point though Tedford would take less risks so that could be the cause.

Play Action and fakes: this is where I really do believe that Nate could really improve…alot. I know the difference between a soft fake during a screen and a zone run vs a down field pass…what I’m saying is he’s not executing the hard play action well.

Importance of deception – Compared to Dixon (i know this is a triple option) it’s like reading spanish vs japanese… watch the 1H of Wash/ORE game or the whole Mich game.. nobody had any idea where the ball was and it opened it up for Dixon’s passing game.

Good play action in pro-style – watch John David Booty and Rudy… they’ve got play actions that really work… Nate sometimes looks like he’s just going through the motions. Sometimes I wonder “why bother??”

Good point about the OL contributing to telegraphing the screens/reverses… i agree with you there…Now I blame the OL, TEs and WRs for that… and you have to admit that our screen game has gone to crap in 07… so have our reverses… the only thing we can do now is boot. Tenn, Colst, Latech were the last three games I can remember where a reverse actually worked well… maybe Zona, but that was due to Jahvid’s speed.

I hope I haven’t confused anyone with my Game Starting Recommendations bit. I preface it by saying it’s “impossible” and not “advisable”... I, like you, do not want a 2QB system for the sake of playing both… I just want less latitude for Nate… if he’s playing poorly and we’re behind, he’s proven he’ll play even worse in the 2H and he’s not the ‘Come-back Kid’ hero type. So play Riley in the 2H.

I personally believe Nate is an amazing QB… i’m certain he will get drafted even if he’s benched this season. If you see his HL tape he’s also very mobile in the pocket and quick on his feet…. BUT only when healthy… this is why I also advocate we don’t do the “he can play through the pain” experiment again.

Taking over the game: This is an aspect I see in Matt Ryan, Tebow and Locker… when you’re down and out… do you turn into the hero or do you give up… I gotta give that to Riley… in both the games he played (OrSt, AF) he exhibited this ‘never-say-die’ type attitude. He’s definitely got that spark and may one day be the best Cal QB ever…. or its biggest bust… with only two games.. we just don’t know.

The one thing I’m sure about is I want Kevin to start the Big Game… we scored 13 points against them in 07!... 13 points!! Not all Nate’s fault (hawk dropped passes), but I want new blood in the Big Game.

★ There’s a lot of plays that Nate can’t run or runs poorly.

Coming from someone who has seen Tedford and the coaches coach Longshore and the entire team in in-season practices, I can tell you that (1) Tedford isn’t going to call plays that the players cannot run; and (2) if a player cannot run a lot of plays or runs them poorly then that player will not play.

Riley redshirted in 2006, with Nate as the starter and Levy/Ayoob as the backups. Riley was a redshirt freshman in 2007, Reed a redshirt sophomore, so Tedford did not blow Riley’s redshirt year by playing him last year. Riley will be a redshirt sophomore in 2008.

“Mansion doesn’t look promising”. I’m not sure where you’re getting this, but I watched Mansion at a lot of practices this spring. He looked like a freshman qb who ran the scout team in the fall and was learning the full playbook for the first time – which is exactly what he is. He absolutely has all of the tools to be a very good qb for Cal, and I would be careful of confusing inexperience with a lack of talent or skill. After all, Mr. Kevin Riley wasn’t setting the world on fire last spring (nor this spring, for that matter), but we’ve seen what he can do.

I preface the Game Starter section by saying:

STARTER RECOMMENDATIONS BY GAME (if 2QB system were possible)
By the way, I know this is impossible and not advisable, but I’m just trying to make a point about what Nate’s history tells us.

Our offense is based on timing… so constantly changing QBs is bad for timing, which explains why after the half, Tedford does not change QBs… what I am saying is to give Nate less latitude if he’s playing badly.. and if we need a come-back, let Riley do it.

As for writing… I am too busy these days.. but there’s just a difference between writing for fun and because you kinda-have-to on a schedule. For some reason free-form blogging and posts like this that are just easier to write when there’s no obligation and no worries about grammar etc…. right?.

Btw Avi… this post looks like one of your posts right…? You were the inpiration… it’s what I like most about your writing… the more analytical side.

You take things too literally dude. The issue that many fans have is that Longshore’s mobility is never going to be his strong suit. He has the requisite skills to avoid the pass rush, but he’s never going to consistently scramble and create plays with his legs by running the ball, and he’s not going to throw many balls to receivers when forced out of the pocket.

Football fans suffer from amnesia. Actually all rabid fans of anything do

I’d like a Louisiana Hot Links with extra sauce, please.

Worrell Williams and DeSean Jackson provided the margin of victory on two plays. Really, this was a typical Longshore win. Get out of the way of the play makers and let them make plays. Were there any signature Longshore plays in the entire game? Hell, Eric Ainge was 32-of-47 for 270 yards and 3 touchdowns with a broken finger on his throwing hand, considerably better than the Mormon One’s 19-of-28 for 240 yards.

The second half of 2007 was a huge mistake, but that doesn’t mean that the QB we were excited for to start 2005, we were happy with in 2006 and thought would lead us to a BCS game in 2007 is terrible and doesn’t deserve a chance to show CAL fans how well he can perform again.

for whatever reason, i felt compelled to write this piece during the weeks between the Oregon and the Oregon State games last year. of course, i turned out to be completely wrong about everything, but i think it’s an interesting snapshot in time, and there wasn’t much in the way of dissenting comments left on that blog entry.

my conclusion, for posterity:

Simply put, better than anyone else in the conference, Longshore minimizes mistakes and lets his playmakers make plays. I’ll bet there are quite a few other Pac-10 teams that wish they had a quarterback like that.

I’m blaming you.

Oh boy. I seriously hope this was just talk.

At this point this approach isn’t exactly new with Tedford. He had planned on giving Riley playing time for the AF Bowl. He said as much afterward.

Looking backwards, even for the Oregon State game, Tedford only gave the nod to Riley 10 minutes before the game. That probably means that Riley wasn’t fully prepped with the first team during the week. Tedford is pretty much married to Longshore, and Riley as well as he’s playing will have to rip the ball out of Longshore’s hands. I think he’ll do exactly that when he gets on the field, but I still think Riley has earned the right to start.

Nailed it!

Yeah, I agree! Fuck you and all that hard work you do at analyzing games, Hydro!

Tedfordisgod,

It’s in the spreadsheet… go to the tab named “Testicle circumference.” I didn’t include it in the analysis because the correlation trends weren’t statistically significant.

Damn! “Those it”? What the hell was that?

Nate, is that you? (jk)...

Thanks man, it was mostly accidental. I was trying to make Nate a highlight tape as an apology to being so mean to him on the boards last year. While I was watching the games for highlight clips, I started to record things like interceptions vs ranked opponents etc… then one day I woke up and I was watching games with a spreadsheet next to me! It kinda got out of hand.

One thing I did learn while re-watching the games for Nate was that he’s pretty darn good when he’s healthy… I now have a new found respect for the dude.

I totally agree about Nate being hurt… even when he wasn’t limping around and seemed fine (WashSt, Stan) he was still lowering his release and side arming it and his touch passes were long or too short… when you look at his footwork, it just wasn’t there anymore. I have a new appreciation for the importance of QB mechanics.

It’s somewhat taboo, but I also assign some of the blame to Coach… however you have to remember his alternative… Riley who played well in the 4thQ of OrSt but bungled the last play… that was his alternative… We think if Riley as the hero of the AF but at the time he was still that guy.

Good point about the OLine… a good OLine will hide many of our weaknesses… given the freshness of our receivers, we need a lot of time in the pocket for our QB AND we need our run game to take over games like they did in 2005, when Ayoob was at the helm.

About the double QB system, it might be a bit early to let Brock Mansion come in late in blow outs to sub for Riley, but I think it’s a good idea. He’ll be holding for PATs and FGs anyways. Err on the side of caution and preparation.

Thanks swamp. I personally don’t subscribe to the 2QB system, but others here have made good points about other teams being successful with it. Coach’s comments during the media day almost imply a 2QB system…

We will pick a starter the first week of the season and it might take both of them. To clarify, they are both going to get game time."

When he says, “to clarify”... it appears to me that he wanted to make his point about both QBs playing more infactic.

Nonetheless, I hope the overarching rule is that if one is not playing well the other goes in. I know Coach has been a bit stubborn about this in the past, but I think he’s not going to give that kind of latitude this season. Think about it, if he was going to repeat his own mistakes, then how could he justify asking certain coaches to leave after 07?

TwistNHook would argue that we were big time the moment he conceived the idea of starting this blog.

Just wait until you see the statue!

but rest assured, we’ll find somewhere to permanently link to this epic FanBlog. don’t worry, we’ll make sure that great stuff like this doesn’t get lost in the archives.

I’m not advocating a 2QB system, but the game-by-game starter recos are there to show how Nate does versus certain teams and situations… eg He’s a lock in home openers, weak in non-conf road games and is kryptonite for both Oregon schools.

Strangely however, coach Tedford has confirmed that both will play, and not just when the other in injured… seems like he wants to utilize each QBs unique talents in unique circumstances. We’ll see.

I found that in general ratings decrease because teams usually schedule weaker non-conf teams at the beginning of this season. However, some QBs show consistent trends throughout their careers…

Nate, Rudy and Dixon all show negative sloping trendlines in each of their starting seasons. JohnDBooty seems to either improve (2005) or remain consistent (2007) through his two years. Alex Brink showed negative slopes as a sophomore, but became pretty consistent his Jr and Sr years. If they can do it, so can Nate.

It is true that I’m waiting to get my Merit Badge in Nate Bashing. Twisted says he’s sent in the paperwork.
That said, I completely agree with everything SOC says. And furthermore:

① I strongly prefer investing in Riley now early in the season so that he’ll be prepared and in sync with the new receiver corps when the heavy hitters on the schedule show up. Also, he’ll be starting the next two years, so an investment in him now will pay off this season and more so for the next two years.

② Since Tedford has gone on record saying that Riley will get snaps, I’m confident that he’ll rip the ball out of Tedford’s hand and take the decision away. He was only supposed to get a quarter or so in the AF Bowl but he just ripped the ball out of Tedford’s hands. It is evident that he wants the ball. Winners always do.

③ Riley has an upside. He’s going to get better, which is just a scary thought.

These are legitimate points… and points that Hydro has made in the past. In my review of the film, I noticed in 2006 that Nate was more of a leader, talking to Djax or Hawk when they missed routes and he also celebrated with them when scoring a TD…

The strange thing about 07 was Nate no longer seemed “friendly” with the receivers… they didn’t celebrate with him in the endzone… Nate would just ‘fist-bump-point-to-sky’ and walk to the sidelines. Something was missing there… This, of course, is MY SUBJECTIVE OPINION.

Riley, in his two games has shown that ‘x-factor’ or ‘hero-factor’... both the OrgSt and AF games were comebacks… and both times he showed that he can make a play when we reeeeallly needed it. That doesn’t mean he’s a manager or is the experienced player… but it does mean he has something worth exploring in 2008.

yeah, i think that made into the daily bear dump either yesterday or today…check there first for discussion of random news like that.