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ESPN just updated their Football Power Index (FPI) to predict the strength of teams in 2019. A team’s FPI score is a prediction of their margin of victory over the “average” team; a negative FPI means that team would lose to the “average” team by that many points.
I collected the Cal-relevant information in the following table; Cal-relevant includes the Pac-12 and our 2019 out-of-conference opponents. (Scores in the magnitude of ±300 function as effective “N/A”, but putting text like that in the table would mess up the sort function. So Ole Miss’s Pac-12 rank is 300 because they aren’t in the conference and Colorado’s opponent rank is 300 because we aren’t playing them next year.)
2019 FPI related to Cal
| Nat'l rk | P12 rk | Opp rk | Team | Proj. W | Proj. L | Prob. win out | Prob. win P12 | SOS | FPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nat'l rk | P12 rk | Opp rk | Team | Proj. W | Proj. L | Prob. win out | Prob. win P12 | SOS | FPI |
| 10 | 1 | 1 | Oregon | 9.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 35.2 | 44.0 | 16.7 |
| 17 | 2 | 2 | Washington | 9.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 19.9 | 29.0 | 13.5 |
| 20 | 3 | 3 | UC L.A. | 7.8 | 4.5 | 0.1 | 14.1 | 9.0 | 11.9 |
| 22 | 4 | 4 | Utah | 8.6 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 14.5 | 47.0 | 11.5 |
| 25 | 5 | 5 | USC | 6.7 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 |
| 30 | 6 | 6 | WSU | 7.4 | 4.7 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 50.0 | 8.4 |
| 33 | 7 | 7 | Stanfurd | 6.2 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 7.6 |
| 36 | 8 | 8 | ASU | 7.0 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 3.4 | 36.0 | 7.4 |
| 41 | 300 | 9 | Ole Miss | 5.8 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 6.1 |
| 51 | 9 | 300 | Arizona | 5.4 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 15.0 | 3.7 |
| 55 | 10 | 10 | California | 4.8 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 13.0 | 2.2 |
| 63 | 11 | 301 | Colorado | 4.0 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 0.3 |
| 84 | 12 | 11 | OSU | 3.1 | 8.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | -4.7 |
| 85 | 301 | 12 | North Texas | 7.8 | 4.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 125.0 | -4.8 |
The California Golden Bears earned an FPI of 2.2, meaning we wouldn’t even be able to beat the average team by one full field goal. This corresponds to a national rank of 55th (out of 130 teams); FPI projects we would finish 5th in the Pac-12 North and 10th in the Pac-12. Rounding to the nearest number, ESPN predicts we will finish 5–7 with a 0.1% chance of winning the conference. Compared to their last version (posted back in February), our national rank is the same, but our FPI dropped from 2.8. Yeesh.
As for the other teams, they predict a huge turnaround for the UC L.A. Bruins to double their wins from last year and go on to the bowl season. The USC Trojans will rely on their talent to right their ship after last year while the vile Stanfurd Cardinal will only reach 6 wins—their fewest since 2008.
Based on FPI, Cal has the 13th-toughest schedule in the nation; the crazy thing is that we have the 6th-toughest schedule in the Pac-12 alone. That speaks volumes about how cutthroat our conference is and how tough our scheduling practices are.
Zooming in closer to their predictions for Cal in 2019, ESPN has predicted Cal’s win-loss record as it grows over the course of the season.
FPI predicts Cal’s 2019 schedule
| Game no. | Opponent | Prob. Cal win | Opp FPI | Opp RPI rk | Proj. Cal W | Proj. Cal L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game no. | Opponent | Prob. Cal win | Opp FPI | Opp RPI rk | Proj. Cal W | Proj. Cal L |
| 1 | UC Davis | 92.0% | -300 | 300 | 0.92 | 0.08 |
| 2 | Washington | 14.7% | 13.5 | 17 | 1.07 | 0.93 |
| 3 | North Texas | 79.0% | -4.8 | 85 | 1.86 | 1.14 |
| 4 | Ole Miss | 27.0% | 6.1 | 41 | 2.13 | 1.87 |
| 5 | ASU | 43.8% | 7.4 | 36 | 2.57 | 2.44 |
| 6 | Oregon | 9.6% | 16.7 | 10 | 2.66 | 3.34 |
| 7 | OSU | 79.4% | -4.7 | 84 | 3.46 | 3.55 |
| 8 | Utah | 18.2% | 11.5 | 22 | 3.64 | 4.36 |
| 9 | WSU | 41.0% | 8.4 | 30 | 4.05 | 4.95 |
| 10 | USC | 35.2% | 10 | 25 | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| 11 | Stanfurd | 27.5% | 7.6 | 33 | 4.67 | 6.33 |
| 12 | UC L.A. | 17.9% | 11.9 | 20 | 4.85 | 7.15 |
Per FPI, we’re only favorites in three games—one against FCS opposition and the other two are approaching 80%. These bad odds are why we only have an expected 4.9 wins and a bowl-less year. I’m not even going to bother putting up a poll here asking for your thoughts because there’s no doubt in my mind that the readers will declare the FPI is underrating the Bears and that we’ll be cruising past 4.9 wins.