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Ranking College Football’s Top Quarterbacks from 2016

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We implement the QB Score to rank quarterbacks throughout FBS. How did your favorite signal-caller fare?

I promise we didn’t do this just to make Davis Webb look better.
Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images

It’s late April and NFL scouts are desperately looking for reasons to justify whether or not their teams should pick certain QBs in this week’s NFL Draft. Let’s give them yet another metric to agonize over while bumbling through the internet at 3 in the morning; let’s compare college football’s QBs with the QB Score. Before we delve into the QB Score, however, we first have to recognize what’s missing from the the most common QB metric, the collegiate passer efficiency rating (PER). Behold the PER, in all its glory (trigger warning: extremely basic math lies ahead).

The traditional NCAA Passer Efficiency Rating (PER)

The PER is a fine metric for passing, but it has some unusual traits. For example, QBs can improve their PER solely by completing passes. A QB may be able to increase his PER by completing several 0-yard passes in a row. That’s a rather odd metric to include given that the PER already rewards QBs for yards, which should naturally result from completed passes. I’d expect this kind of stat-padding from those coddled Lobsterbacks across the Bay, but we can do better. Of course, that’s only a minor quibble with the PER. One of the biggest complaints about the PER is that it only captures passing (I’ll give you a minute to process this profound insight).

By only recognizing passing, the PER overlooks a QB’s ability to manufacture yards on the ground. A statuesque QB might surrender 30 negative yards per game on sacks and a nimble QB might run for 150 yards per game; but if their passing stats are identical, the PER will give them identical ratings. Clearly one is much more productive than the other, so let’s find a way to incorporate rushing statistics into our measure of QB performance.

Sports economist David Berri developed a metric that accommodates both running and passing QBs, a metric he calls the QB Score. It's a pretty simple formula:

QB Score = Total Yards - (3 x Plays) - (50 x Turnovers)

While the QBs can improve their PER by accumulating yards, throwing TDs, completing passes, and avoiding interceptions, the strategy to improve one’s QB Score is more straightforward: accumulate yards, don’t take too many plays to accumulate those yards, and don’t turn the ball over.

I collected passing, running, and turnover stats for over 150 FBS quarterbacks and plugged the numbers into the QB Score. The QB Score works best with large sample sizes, so I've only included quarterbacks who threw more than 100 passes last season. While the focus in this piece is on the QB score, I've included the PER to provide a point of comparison. Let's take a look at the results, starting with the top ten quarterbacks from 2016.

In this and all following tables I provide the QB Score, the player's national ranking in QB Score, his PER, and his national rank in PER.

2016’s Top Ten Quarterbacks

Name Team QB Score (Rank) QB Efficiency (Rank)
1. Ryan Higgins Louisiana Tech 2742 (1) 168.6 (7)
2. Patrick Mahomes II Texas Tech 2671 (2) 157 (15)
3. Mike White Western Kentucky 2604 (3) 181.4 (3)
4. Quinton Flowers South Florida 2405 (4) 153.6 (20)
5. Lamar Jackson Louisville 2357 (5) 148.8 (33)
6. Baker Mayfield Oklahoma 2284 (6) 196.4 (1)
7. Logan Woodside Toledo 2274 (7) 183.3 (2)
8. Zach Terrell Western Michigan 2211 (8) 175.2 (5)
9. Deshaun Watson Clemson 2140 (9) 151.1 (25)
10. Mason Rudolph Oklahoma State 2109 (10) 158.9 (12)

There is clearly a healthy amount of agreement between the PER and QB Score, as half of the QB Score’s top ten also finished the year with a top-ten PER. While the QB Score incorporates rushing into its metrics, QBs can still achieve stellar performances without relying on rushing yards. The top QB of 2016, Ryan Higgins (who?) passed for nearly 4900 yards on a stellar 9.3 yards per passing attempt, with 43 TDs to only 8 interceptions. He also ran for a respectable 277 yards and 4 TDs. Second place goes to Patrick Mahomes, the primary reason our good friend Davis Webb transferred to Cal. While Mahomes’ 5,052 passing yards exceeded Higgins’ yardage, Mahomes needed nearly 100 more passes to achieve that number. Mahomes was productive on the ground (285 yards, 12 TDs), but Higgins was more efficient through the air.

In third place is Western Kentucky’s Mike White. White passed for “only” 4,289 yards (with -74 passing yards), but averaged a remarkable 10.5 yards per passing attempt. With only 7 interceptions, his combination of efficiency and ball security gave him a podium finish in our rankings.

If we Cal fans weren’t spoiled with having Jared Goff and Davis Webb back to back, I’d be supremely jealous that Louisiana Tech and Western Kentucky finished in the top-five in 2015 and 2016 with different QBs each year.

The next two QBs, Mike White of South Florida and Lamar Jackson of Louisville, benefited greatly from the QB Score’s inclusion of rushing yardage. Respectively they ranked 20th and 33rd in PER rankings, respectable but not elite. White passed for 2,812 yards (with 24 TDs and 7 interceptions) on 8.5 yards per attempt and Jackson passed for 3,542 yards (30 TDs and 9 interceptions) on 8.7 yards per attempt. Those are solid performances, but not particularly noteworthy. However, White and Jackson rushed for 1,530 and 1,571 yards, respectively. Even more impressive, they averaged 7.73 yards per carry and 6.04 yards per carry, respectively. Those are fantastic averages for anyone, let alone a quarterback. In fact, only one player in the nation, RB Aaron Jones of UTEP, had more carries than White and ran for more yards per carry; and Jones barely finished ahead of White with 7.74 yards per carry.

6th place in our QB Score rankings is Baker Mayfield, the top QB in the nation according to PER. He certainly was effective through the air with 3,965 yards on a spectacular 11.1 yards per passing attempt. His ground game was much less efficient, however. He tallied 177 rushing yards on a lousy 2.27 yards per carry; further, he was dinged for 3 lost fumbles. Under the QB Score the ground game giveth and the ground game taketh away.

9th place finisher DeShaun Watson is an interesting case study. He was one of three QBs in the nation to accumulate over 5,000 total yards. His efficiency didn’t quite match his productivity, however. He passed for 7.9 yards per attempt and ran for 3.81 yards per carry—decent, but not elite. Still, there’s something to be said for piling up over 5,000 yards.

We’ll cover the rest of the nation conference by conference, starting with those lovable scamps in the Pac-12.

Pac-12

For the second year in a row, the Mike Leach family tree reigns supreme. After Jared Goff finished atop our rankings in 2015, Luke Falk inherited the top spot in 2016.

Name Team QB Score (Rank) QB Efficiency (Rank)
1. Luke Falk Washington State 1753 (15) 145.6 (40)
2. Jake Browning Washington 1657 (18) 167.5 (8)
3. Davis Webb California 1626 (19) 135.6 (69)
4. Sam Darnold USC 1352 (28) 161.1 (11)
5. Troy Williams Utah 1089 (54) 121 (114)
6. Brandon Dawkins Arizona 1053 (57) 124 (101)
7. Justin Herbert Oregon 958 (63) 148.8 (34)
8. Sefo Liufau Colorado 908 (67) 132.6 (82)
9. Josh Rosen UCLA 834 (72) 138.9 (58)
10. Manny Wilkins Arizona State 808 (75) 133.2 (78)
11. Dakota Prukop Oregon 694 (86) 152.7 (23)
12. Marcus McMaryion Oregon State 514 (106) 136.5 (67)
13. Steven Montez Colorado 483 (113) 138 (62)
14. Keller Chryst Stanford 433 (118) 133.8 (75)
15. Mike Fafaul UCLA 191 (137) 110.9 (143)
16. Ryan Burns Stanford -16 (152) 121.2 (113)
17. Darell Garretson Oregon State -70 (155) 86.8 (157)

Interestingly, Falk regressed from last year. His QB Score dropped from 1,868 to 1,753 and his PER declined slightly from 145.9 to 145.6. His in-state rival Jake Browning improved tremendously, however. His QB Score jumped from 1,191 to 1,657 and his PER went from 139.7 to a conference-leading 167.5. Our own Davis Webb finished third to give Cal its third consecutive top-three performance in our rankings. I pray to Oski that we get a fourth consecutive top-three finish in the 2017 season, but I won’t hold my breath (in part because I’d be long dead if I held my breath for the next eight months).

Sam Darnold was the second-most efficient QB in the Pac-12 according to the PER, but he finished fourth in the QB Score rankings in part thanks to a run game that hurt his score. His 4.03 yards per carry wasn’t bad, but five lost fumbles put a big, 350-point dent in his QB Score. Without those fumbles, he would have finished second in the conference.

With only 1,348 passing yards (although his 7.4 yards per attempt was decent), Arizona’s Brandon Dawkins was a surprise at 6th in the conference. His score was buoyed by a fantastic 7.21 yards per rush.

Look at those Leland Stanford Junior University quarterbacks’ QB Scores. That David Shaw can routinely churn out 10+ win seasons with these putrid offenses is an affront to humanity.

Now let’s go through the rest of the nation, starting with the rest of the Power 5 conferences in alphabetical order.

ACC

With 5 QBs in the national top-20 (all of whom will likely be drafted this week), the ACC had arguably the best quarterbacking in the nation last season. Their top two QBs have a good chance of being the first two QBs drafted this week and four of their QBs could be off the board by the end of Day 2.

Name Team QB Score (Rank) QB Efficiency (Rank)
1. Lamar Jackson Louisville 2357 (5) 148.8 (33)
2, Deshaun Watson Clemson 2140 (9) 151.1 (25)
3. Mitch Trubisky North Carolina 1989 (11) 158.3 (14)
4. Jerod Evans Virginia Tech 1770 (14) 153.1 (21)
5. Brad Kaaya Miami 1672 (17) 150.3 (28)
6. Deondre Francois Florida State 1474 (24) 142.1 (46)
7. Nathan Peterman Pittsburgh 1457 (26) 163.4 (10)
8. Ryan Finley NC State 1321 (32) 135.1 (74)
9. Justin Thomas Georgia Tech 1208 (38) 157 (16)
10. Eric Dungey Syracuse 1182 (42) 138.2 (60)
11. Daniel Jones Duke 909 (66) 126.3 (94)
12. John Wolford Wake Forest 508 (107) 108.6 (145)
13. Kurt Benkert Virginia 310 (124) 120.6 (116)
14. Zack Mahoney Syracuse 253 (129) 133 (80)
15. Patrick Towles Boston College 210 (135) 113.2 (138)

Deshaun Watson regressed from 2,465 to 2,140, which allowed Lamar Jackson to claim first place (a big jump from his QB Score of 1,170 last season). Both QBs tallied over 5,000 total yards, but were hurt by turnovers. Jackson lost 6 fumbles while Watson threw 17 interceptions.

Fortunately for us Cal fans, UNC’s Mitch Trubisky will be drafted (likely the first QB off the board) this weekend and will take his excellent reliability (68.4% completions, 30 TDs to 6 interceptions) to the NFL. He’ll be replaced by LSU grad transfer Brandon Harris, who didn’t play enough to qualify for our rankings this year. Last year Harris posted a respectable 1,059.

Big 12

There was some great quarterbacking happening in the state of Oklahoma last season. The same cannot be said for Kansas, whose QBs have had a habit of finishing near the bottom of our QB Score rankings each year.

Name Team QB Score (Rank) QB Efficiency (Rank)
1. Patrick Mahomes II Texas Tech 2671 (2) 157 (15)
2. Baker Mayfield Oklahoma 2284 (6) 196.4 (1)
3. Mason Rudolph Oklahoma State 2109 (10) 158.9 (12)
4. Skyler Howard West Virginia 1503 (22) 146.6 (38)
5. Kenny Hill TCU 1472 (25) 129.2 (89)
6. Jesse Ertz Kansas State 1226 (37) 121.6 (110)
7. Seth Russell Baylor 1116 (50) 136.9 (64)
8. Shane Buechele Texas 1095 (52) 136 (68)
9. Jacob Park Iowa State 814 (74) 138.5 (59)
10. Joel Lanning Iowa State 788 (77) 136.7 (66)
11. Zach Smith Baylor 487 (111) 139.3 (55)
12. Carter Stanley Kansas 219 (133) 116.3 (134)
13. Montell Cozart Kansas 62 (146) 109.2 (144)
14. Ryan Willis Kansas -12 (151) 116.3 (135)

Those Kansas’ QBs stats aren’t as awful as I had initially expected. Stanley, Cozart, and Willis respectively completed 59.6%, 58.5%, and 61.5% of their passes on 6.1, 5.7, and 6.9 yards per attempt. Those are bad, but not turrible. What really hurt them is that all of those QBs tossed more interceptions than touchdowns. It’s a shame that Rob Likens and Zach Yenser weren’t been able to get much going with Kansas’ offense over the past couple seasons. They seemed like good hires at the time, but no one seems to know how to fix the wasteland that has been Kansas football over the past several years.

Big Ten

I technically live in the Big Ten footprint now that the conference has expanded to the mid-Atlantic, so I’m surprised that I don’t remember Penn State’s Trace McSorley. He must have been a pleasant surprise for Penn State after years of watching Christian Hackenburg underperform.

Name Team QB Score (Rank) QB Efficiency (Rank)
1. Trace McSorley Penn State 1780 (13) 156.9 (17)
2. J.T. Barrett Ohio State 1198 (39) 135.3 (72)
3. Tommy Armstrong Jr. Nebraska 1071 (56) 123.9 (104)
4. Wilton Speight Michigan 1030 (59) 139.8 (53)
5. Clayton Thorson Northwestern 805 (76) 125.9 (95)
6. Richard Lagow Indiana 737 (83) 128.8 (90)
7. Mitch Leidner Minnesota 681 (89) 116.5 (132)
8. Tyler O'Connor Michigan State 615 (97) 135.2 (73)
9. Bart Houston Wisconsin 588 (98) 149.7 (31)
10. David Blough Purdue 524 (104) 119.4 (121)
11. Wes Lunt Illinois 405 (121) 113.4 (137)
12. C.J. Beathard Iowa 264 (127) 122.3 (108)
13. Alex Hornibrook Wisconsin 219 (132) 125.8 (97)
14. Perry Hills Maryland 193 (136) 140.4 (50)
15. Chris Laviano Rutgers 30 (149) 100.2 (152)
16. Giovanni Rescigno Rutgers -20 (153) 102.6 (149)

McSorley only completed 57.9% of his passes, but he averaged a great 9.3 yards per attempt and tossed 29 TDs to only 8 interceptions. An Ohio State University’s J.T. Barrett made a substantial improvement over last year, as his QB Score rose from 688 to 1,198. Barrett’s passing was okay: 61.5% completions on 6.7 yards per attempt, although he took care of the ball with 24 TDs and 7 interceptions. He was productive on the ground with 845 yards (4.12 yards per carry).

Tommy Armstrong certainly is consistent. He had a 1,080 in 2014, 1,130 in 2015, and 1,071 in 2016.

CJ Beathard plummeted from 1,260 in 2015 to 264 in 2016. Although throwing the same number of TDs (17) in 2015 and 2016, he threw twice as many interceptions (10) in 2016 and threw one-third fewer yards (2,809 vs. 1929). Particularly damaging to his QB Score is that he ran 83 times for -17 yards this season, compared to 237 yards on 100 rushes in 2015. Beathard is not particularly mobile and had trouble avoiding sacks.

Does Rutgers only recruit Italian quarterbacks?

SEC

The SEC didn’t produce too many top QBs this season. It clearly must be a result of those vaunted SEC defenses.

Name Team QB Score (Rank) QB Efficiency (Rank)
1. Drew Lock Missouri 1564 (21) 133.3 (76)
2. Nick Fitzgerald Mississippi State 1480 (23) 124.3 (100)
3. Joshua Dobbs Tennessee 1456 (27) 150.6 (26)
4. Jalen Hurts Alabama 1315 (33) 139.1 (56)
5. Chad Kelly Ole Miss 1313 (34) 147.4 (36)
6. Austin Allen Arkansas 1156 (46) 146 (39)
7. Trevor Knight Texas A&M 1104 (51) 123.2 (106)
8. Sean White Auburn 903 (68) 143.1 (44)
9. Danny Etling LSU 839 (71) 135.5 (71)
10. Jacob Eason Georgia 776 (78) 120.3 (119)
11. Stephen Johnson Kentucky 678 (90) 130.9 (86)
12. Kyle Shurmur Vanderbilt 505 (108) 110.9 (142)
13. Jake Bentley South Carolina 485 (112) 140 (52)
14. Jake Hubenak Texas A&M 423 (120) 145.2 (42)
15. Shea Patterson Ole Miss 380 (122) 121 (115)
16. Austin Appleby Florida 302 (125) 128 (91)
17. Luke Del Rio Florida 264 (128) 118.6 (124)
18. Brandon McIlwain South Carolina 134 (144) 99.2 (153)

Chad Kelly suffered a surprising drop; he finished 7th in our overall rankings last year with a QB Score of 2,197. His total yardage, yards per passing attempt, rushing yardage, yards per carry, and TD-to-interception ratio all declined this past season, leading to a substantial decline in his QB Score.

And now to the Group of 5 conferences...

AAC

Oklahoma, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio—the AAC has a rough travel schedule.

Name Team QB Score (Rank) QB Efficiency (Rank) Conference
1. Quinton Flowers South Florida 2405 (4) 153.6 (20)
2. Riley Ferguson Memphis 1336 (30) 152.7 (22)
3. Greg Ward Jr. Houston 1227 (36) 141.7 (47)
4. Phillip Walker Temple 1165 (44) 140.1 (51)
5. Will Worth Navy 1152 (47) 179.3 (4)
6. Dane Evans Tulsa 1073 (55) 143 (45)
7. Philip Nelson East Carolina 1045 (58) 141.5 (48)
8. Bryant Shirreffs Connecticut 655 (93) 122.2 (109)
9. Hayden Moore Cincinnati 515 (105) 123.4 (105)
10. Gardner Minshew East Carolina 345 (123) 124 (103)
11. Gunner Kiel Cincinnati 298 (126) 117.6 (126)
12. McKenzie Milton UCF 233 (131) 113 (139)
13. Glen Cuiellette Tulane -96 (156) 96.2 (155)

Quinton Flowers boosted his QB Score by nearly 1,000 over last year, which was good enough to bump him into the top five of our rankings.

Memphis fared pretty well replacing Paxton Lynch, who finished 6th in our rankings last year.

Conference USA

Two of the top three this year. Two of the top four last year. And neither Louisiana Tech nor Western Kentucky returned last year’s QB. That must be agonizing for the rest of the Conference USA to watch.

Name Team QB Score (Rank) QB Efficiency (Rank)
1. Ryan Higgins Louisiana Tech 2742 (1) 168.6 (7)
2. Mike White Western Kentucky 2604 (3) 181.4 (3)
3. Brent Stockstill Middle Tennessee 1746 (16) 150.2 (29)
4. David Washington Old Dominion 1572 (20) 156.6 (18)
5. Nick Mullens Southern Mississippi 1158 (45) 149.8 (30)
6. Dalton Sturm UT San Antonio 956 (64) 135.5 (70)
7. Jason Driskel Florida Atlantic 886 (69) 125.6 (98)
8. Chase Litton Marshall 814 (73) 137.9 (63)
9. Tyler Stehling Rice 757 (81) 124 (102)
10. Hasaan Klugh Charlotte 693 (87) 116.5 (131)
11. Ben Hicks SMU 558 (101) 121.5 (111)
12. Ryan Metz UTEP 505 (109) 141.1 (49)
13. Alex McGough Florida Intl 465 (115) 121.2 (112)
14. Zack Greenlee UTEP 188 (138) 117.4 (127)
15. Mason Fine North Texas 175 (139) 113.7 (136)
16. Alec Morris North Texas 158 (141) 116.4 (133)
17. Kevin Olsen Charlotte 60 (147) 98 (154)
18. John Urzua Middle Tennessee -49 (154) 119.8 (120)

David Washington nearly tripled his QB Score from last year. His strong performance helped Old Dominion finish 10-3, a particularly impressive feat considering they’ve only been in FBS for three seasons.

Independents

Name Team QB Score (Rank) QB Efficiency (Rank)
1. DeShone Kizer Notre Dame 1327 (31) 145.6 (41)
2. Taysom Hill BYU 699 (85) 116.9 (129)
3. Andrew Ford Massachusetts 639 (95) 138 (61)

DeShone Kizer leads the independents for the second year in a row. BYU’s Taysom Hill had a fantastic season in 2014 before injuring his knee. Unfortunately he couldn’t replicate those great performances over the course of the season in 2016

MAC

I miss the days when Toledo, Northern Illinois, Ball State, and Ohio QBs were regularly putting up wild combinations of rushing and passing yards. The MAC is in danger of losing its MACtion moniker.

Name Team QB Score (Rank) QB Efficiency (Rank)
1. Logan Woodside Toledo 2274 (7) 183.3 (2)
2. Zach Terrell Western Michigan 2211 (8) 175.2 (5)
3. Brogan Roback Eastern Michigan 1262 (35) 131.9 (84)
4. Cooper Rush Central Michigan 1120 (49) 133.2 (77)
5. Thomas Woodson Akron 961 (62) 152.1 (24)
6. Riley Neal Ball State 918 (65) 120.4 (117)
7. Anthony Maddie Northern Illinois 750 (82) 127.6 (93)
8. Gus Ragland Miami (OH) 700 (84) 166.6 (9)
9. Nick Holley Kent State 615 (96) 104.2 (148)
10. Greg Windham Ohio 575 (100) 118 (125)
11. Quinton Maxwell Ohio 552 (103) 131.8 (85)
12. Tyree Jackson Buffalo 491 (110) 104.7 (147)
13. Todd Porter Eastern Michigan 238 (130) 127.8 (92)
14. Billy Bahl Miami (OH) 213 (134) 147.5 (35)
15. Tra'Von Chapman Akron 150 (142) 102 (151)
16. James Morgan Bowling Green 147 (143) 116.8 (130)
17. Ryan Graham Northern Illinois 54 (148) 112.2 (140)
18. James Knapke Bowling Green -252 (157) 87.7 (156)

Poor James Knapke. He has the distinction of being the worst QB in our rankings. He completed half his passes, threw twice as many interceptions as touchdowns, and somehow managed to celebrate his senior year with the worst stats of his career.

MWC

Name Team QB Score (Rank) QB Efficiency (Rank)
1. Brett Rypien Boise State 1804 (12) 155.7 (19)
2. Josh Allen Wyoming 1167 (43) 144.9 (43)
3. Nick Stevens Colorado State 1091 (53) 171.3 (6)
4. Kent Myers Utah State 1007 (61) 118.7 (123)
5. Dru Brown Hawai'i 875 (70) 139.3 (54)
6. Kenny Potter San Jose State 765 (79) 132.1 (83)
7. Nate Romine Air Force 676 (91) 158.6 (13)
8. Christian Chapman San Diego State 641 (94) 149.2 (32)
9. Collin Hill Colorado State 580 (99) 146.9 (37)
10. Ty Gangi Nevada 555 (102) 129.5 (88)
11. Chason Virgil Fresno State 446 (117) 111.4 (141)
12. Tyler Stewart Nevada 425 (119) 132.9 (81)
13. Johnny Stanton UNLV 166 (140) 107.1 (146)

Brett Rypien leads the Mountain West, as Boise State QBs often do. Colorado State is turning into a productive home for QBs, as another of their QBs finishes in the Mountain West’s top-three for the third consecutive year.

Hawaii finally found a quarterback! I had a good time mocking analyzing Hawaii’s passing game ahead of our matchup with them, so I’m particularly impressed to see that Nick Rolovich was able to field a respectable passing game last season.

Sun Belt

When someone mentions the “Sun Belt,” what is the first state that comes to mind?

I guarantee it is not Idaho.

Name Team QB Score (Rank) QB Efficiency (Rank)
1. Matt Linehan Idaho 1342 (29) 136.7 (65)
2. Justice Hansen Arkansas State 1193 (40) 138.9 (57)
3. Brandon Silvers Troy 1184 (41) 133 (79)
4. Taylor Lamb Appalachian State 1145 (48) 129.9 (87)
5. Dallas Davis South Alabama 1017 (60) 125.8 (96)
6. Tyler Rogers New Mexico State 758 (80) 117 (128)
7. Conner Manning Georgia State 681 (88) 123.1 (107)
8. Kevin Ellison Georgia Southern 664 (92) 150.5 (27)
9. Garrett Smith Louisiana Monroe 478 (114) 124.4 (99)
10. Anthony Jennings UL Lafayette 462 (116) 119.4 (122)
11. Caleb Evans Louisiana Monroe 112 (145) 102.3 (150)
12. Tyler Jones Texas State -8 (150) 120.4 (118)

More than 150 quarterbacks later, we’ve gone through all the FBS conferences. Given that our own Davis Webb finished 69th in PER but 19th in QB Score, I think it’s fairly obvious that the QB Score is the superior metric. If he’s drafted in the first round tonight, it will be abundantly clear that NFL scouts agree with me.