Two weeks ago I analyzed what data there was on the offense, which all boiled down to Coach Greatwood. In this edition we will look into the defense.

I will take a comprehensive view of the data available to me for Coach DeRuyter from his time at Fresno State. As well as the data from Coach Wilcox from Wisconsin, USC, Washington

First we will look at the current staff with DeRuyter:

• Defensive Like : Azzinaro
• OLB : Tuioti, or T-Squared
• DBs : Alexander

They all are part of what I want to call... DeRuyerterffense (Copyright Pending).

All of them haven’t done a lot of work in CFB during the S&P+ era. Therefore, like in the case of the offense out of all of the coaches only coaches DeRuyter and Wilcox have S&P+ data (I will not use Coach Azzinaro’s data from the NFL since it doesn’t translate as easily due to differences in talent).

S&P+ Data

In 2016 the DeRuyter lead Fresno State struggled in nearly all of the categories, attaining Cal like levels of suckage in Efficiency. One redeeming quality is the defense’s ability to prevent big plays from either the ground or the air. Next we will look into the more detailed info. We won’t delve into positional data since it is highly dependent on the positional coaches and none of them are on the current Cal staff.

On the other hand the Wisconsin defense under Wilcox is the type that would literally make Cal into a perennial 10 win team with the offense we have.

Literally.

With the 2015 or 2016 offenses, Cal jumps into the top 10 OVERALL S&P+ & THAT’S FLORIDA STATE/OHIO STATE/WASHINGTON level.

But alas we shouldn’t depend on becoming that type of defense anytime soon. However, improving the Cal defense into bear-able level we can become a team that hits 7-8 wins + a good bowl.

Rushing Defense S&P+

Here we can see the continued similarity between the Fresno State and Cal defense. When we think back at the 2016 Cal Rushing defense it could be contained within 2 characters “ :( “. The same can be said about the Fresno State rushing defense that, sans preventing the rushing big play defense. Which is better than Cal that ranked #115th.

This is the rushing defense of our dreams. Like in the case of the previous data on Wilcox’s defense there isn’t much to talk about since the numbers speak for their own fabulous selves.

Passing Defense S&P+

Passing defense was also pretty bad. In all but the success rate does the defense reach Cal levels of BAD.... That’s not good. The only statistic that bodes well is the above average success rate. Which means that passing plays do not get the necessary yards. But when they do they are big plays.

There is a lack of pressure and capacity to prevent big passing plays or produce sacks... relativel to other Wisconsin statistics. This is surprising considering that Wisconsin has a possible 1st round EDGE rusher in TJ Watt. This will be a worry for Cal and a big task for coach T-Squared. Both Wilcox and DeRuyter haven’t produced good pass rushes in the previous year and considering Cal shifting from a 4-3 to a 3-4/4-2-5 base this will continue to be an issue as we transition DEs into OLBs.

Situational

What we can see here is a literal tale of two programs. Fresno state has a highly volatile S&P+ depending on the quarter and on the downs. This is similar to Cal’s defense that couldn’t stay in one S&P+ ballpark. This is diametrically different to the S&P+ pattern for the Wisconsin defense that stayed remarkably stable at a high level in the situations.

Defensive Footprint

Differences are easy to spot and and easy to deduce once we look at the previous data. One thing that is both troubling and a common pattern is the poor production by the defensive lines by both teams. This can be reasoned that they were simply bad, or the scheme demanded gap-filling DLs who let the LBs do their job in garnering sacks, TFLs etc.

Conclusion

DeRuyter and Wilcox had diametrically different 2016 seasons with their respective defenses. The hope is that Wilcox’s influence on the team will be significant with the hire of DeRuyter being used to augment his personnel management/admin work rather than on the field. If Cal moves closer to the Wilcox defense and away from the Buh/Kaufman black hole of sucktitude then it will bode well to the Cal W-L ratio.

Overall, the biggest worry for Cal is DL/EDGE production since this has been a pattern for both of the new defensive masterminds for Cal. We know we have coach Azzinaro for DL so some of my concerns are assuaged. However, with Coach T-Squared on OLB duty I am worried about the young outside guys having to changing positions.