Economics is often thought of as a subject where only grand aggregate numbers such as GDP, GNI, and M3 money supply. Economics also focuses on how efficient these numbers are on a per person/industry basis. David Ricardo theorized Comparative Advantage in terms of maximizing each nation's efficiency in trade.
In this article I will try to translate the understanding of efficiency into college football (Prof. Olney would be proud... I think). I used data from both Sports-Reference and CFBStats to arrive at a measure of a per-possession efficiency in the Pac-12.
|School||Points Per Offensive Possession||Points Scored Against per Opponent’s Possession||Offense/Defense Ratio|
We can see here that there are three clusters:
- Stanford, California, Oregon, Southern California, and Arizona,
- UCLA, Utah, Washington State, Washington, and Arizona State,
- Colorado, and Oregon State
Future For Cal
Cal had a very efficient offense that was lead a veteran QB and WRs. I expect a drop-off in offensive efficiency as the new QB and WRs will have to get used to playing with each other in the Spavital Offense (Spaffense?). It would take a drop-off of nearly 1 point per possession (slightly lower than ASU's 2015 offense) to make the ratio 1:1. I doubt this would be the case due to the talent pool Cal operates with.
I expect the defense to step up and become mediocre in the Pac-12 pushing the points per possession to 2.35-2.4 levels, which does not seem to be a huge number, yet it can be a difference of 17.82 to 9.72 points per season for Cal (Cal's defense faced 162 opponent possessions).