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Perhaps more so than most years, parity and the paucity of road wins has made every home game a cliched "must-win." The visiting Beavers may be middle of the pack in standings, but they boast impressive wins over the Ducks and Utes. As with our own sturdy Golden Bears, Oregon State has proven much more formidable at home and have yet to notch a road win over anyone that matters. We found this out the hard way with a less than stellar visit to Corvallis earlier in the year.
Not much has changed personnel or scheme-wise since last we met. If you're expecting more Tinkle jokes, that well has run dry.
As before, the Beavers are not a particularly good shooting team, don't get themselves to the line much, and are downright poor on the glass. Surprisingly, they're not playing defense with the same effectiveness as least season despite having more talented personnel. It's still a mix of pressure man with zone looks and plenty of traps. But if you can take care of the ball, they'll give up good looks inside.
So how has Coach Tinkle managed to keep his team in the mix? They're the best in the league at stealing the ball and they have a transcendent star in Gary Payton Deux who has the ability to dominate a game.
Unfortunately, Cal remains one of the most turnover-prone teams in the league. Oregon State literally stole a win at home and are coming in confident with their ability to snag another.
Even so, Kenpom somehow predicts a decisive Cal victory with 76% certainty. I may not understand math, but I approve of this message.
Projected Starters:
F Oleg Schaftenaar(Sr.), 6'10, 235 lbs, 6.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 36% 3FG - Goofy beanpole doesn't do much, but can hit threes.
F Tres Tinkle(Fr), 6'8, 220 lbs, 11.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg - Has been consistent and productive since moving into the starting lineup.
F Drew Eubanks(Fr), 6'10, 240 lbs, 7.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg - Steady inside presence. Provides some paint scoring and shot-blocking
G Malcolm Duvivier(Jr), 6'2, 210 lbs, 6.2 ppg, 2.9 rpg - More of a defender. Heady vet does a little of everything.
G Gary Payton II(Sr), 6'3, 190 lbs, 16.5 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 5.5 apg - Has elevated his game in conference play. Capable of single-handedly willing his team to victory.
Bench:
G Steven Thompson Jr.(Fr), 6'4, 170 lbs, 10.1 ppg, 36.5% 3FG - Continues to emerge as a scorer to compliment Payton and Tinkle.
G Langston Morris-Walker(Sr), 6'5, 215 lbs, 5.6 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 38.5% 3FG - Has struggled a bit in conference play and was demoted to the bench.
F Jarmel Reid(Sr), 6'7, 235 lbs, 4.5 ppg, 2.2 rpg - Best known for tripping a ref. He's the hero we deserve.
When Oregon St.
has the ball
| Category | Oregon St. Offense | California Defense | D-I Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | 101.1 9 | 102.2 5 | 103.4 |
| Avg. Poss Length | 17.6 9 | 17.7 10 | 17.2 |
| Four Factors | |||
| Effective FG%: | 47.0 10 | 44.6 1 | 49.8 |
| Turnover %: | 15.2 2 | 14.3 11 | 18.4 |
| Off. Reb. %: | 27.7 11 | 29.2 4 | 29.9 |
| FTA/FGA: | 35.3 10 | 45.6 10 | 36.8 |
| Miscellaneous Components | |||
| 3P%: | 33.0 10 | 33.1 2 | 34.6 |
| 2P%: | 46.0 10 | 43.1 1 | 48.6 |
| FT%: | 63.3 12 | 72.5 9 | 69.7 |
| Block%: | 9.3 5 | 10.8 5 | 9.2 |
| Steal%: | 6.2 3 | 6.2 10 | 8.7 |
| Style Components | |||
| 3PA/FGA: | 29.8 8 | 23.0 1 | 35.3 |
| A/FGM: | 51.9 3 | 45.5 3 | 52.7 |
| Defensive Fingerprint: |
Mostly Man |
||
| Point Distribution (% of total points) | |||
| 3-Pointers: | 25.3 9 | 18.6 12 | 29.3 |
| 2-Pointers: | 55.5 3 | 54.3 3 | 50.2 |
| Free Throws: | 19.2 11 | 27.0 1 | 20.5 |
| Personnel | |||
| Bench Minutes: | 34.0% 156 | 31.0% 234 | 33.0% |
| Experience: | 1.65 yrs 202 | 1.53 yrs 237 | 1.70 |
| Effective Height: | +3.2 27 | +3.5 19 | 0.0 |
| Average Height: | 78.0" 42 | 78.8" 6 | 76.8" |
When California
has the ball
| Category | California Offense | Oregon St. Defense | D-I Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | 104.9 8 | 105.5 7 | 103.4 |
| Avg. Poss Length | 17.2 7 | 17.8 11 | 17.2 |
| Four Factors | |||
| Effective FG%: | 52.1 4 | 52.3 9 | 49.8 |
| Turnover %: | 19.8 11 | 22.2 1 | 18.4 |
| Off. Reb. %: | 29.5 7 | 34.6 11 | 29.9 |
| FTA/FGA: | 42.9 1 | 43.6 8 | 36.8 |
| Miscellaneous Components | |||
| 3P%: | 37.7 3 | 34.4 5 | 34.6 |
| 2P%: | 49.9 5 | 52.7 10 | 48.6 |
| FT%: | 67.5 11 | 72.0 7 | 69.7 |
| Block%: | 9.5 6 | 9.0 7 | 9.2 |
| Steal%: | 8.4 8 | 12.3 1 | 8.7 |
| Style Components | |||
| 3PA/FGA: | 32.9 5 | 38.0 11 | 35.3 |
| A/FGM: | 50.8 8 | 57.3 10 | 52.7 |
| Defensive Fingerprint: |
Some Zone |
||
| Point Distribution (% of total points) | |||
| 3-Pointers: | 28.0 3 | 28.9 3 | 29.3 |
| 2-Pointers: | 50.3 10 | 48.0 11 | 50.2 |
| Free Throws: | 21.8 6 | 23.1 4 | 20.5 |
| Personnel | |||
| Bench Minutes: | 31.0% 234 | 34.0% 156 | 33.0% |
| Experience: | 1.53 yrs 237 | 1.65 yrs 202 | 1.70 |
| Effective Height: | +3.5 19 | +3.2 27 | 0.0 |
| Average Height: | 78.8" 6 | 78.0" 42 | 76.8" |
Keys to the Game:
1) Keep our point guards out of foul trouble.
If we have to play Chauca against Payton for substantial minutes, it's going to be tough sledding. I'd cross-cover and platoon Bird/Mathews on Payton. The match-ups between Rabb/Brown and Tinkle/Schaftenaar are a little weird unless you consider Schaftenaar to be more of a perimeter player. Brown is strong enough to box out Schaftenaar and just needs to chase him off the three point line. It's similar to how we played Zona's duo of Anderson/Tollefsen.
2) Do I write "avoid turnovers" in every preview?
Of course not. That would suggest we have issues.
3) Impose our will inside.
If Kam Rooks can continue to flourish, it becomes harder to double Rabb without consequence. Even if the Beavers go zone and play the passing lanes, we can't give up on establishing the high post. From a toughness standpoint, this is absolutely a team that we can punish on the offensive glass.
4) Stick to our strengths.
Regardless of whether we stumble all over ourselves on offense, we can't let that affect our focus on defense. Perhaps the most disappointing aspect of our conference losses has been our inability to put forth the same effort defensively regardless of our opponent or where we're playing.
5) We're a different team when folks besides Brown and Rabb are hitting shots. I'd recommend we do this.
Go Bears!
Tip-off: Saturday, Feb 13, 3:30pm, Pac-12 Networks