Took me an hour and a half or so but hope everyone enjoys.
So here is the breakdown for Cal to make a bowl at 5-7 ladies and gentlemen. Currently there are 65 teams that are bowl eligible. Thus 15 spots are open for the 80 teams that will make a bowl. 10 of those spots are automatically filled whether the teams win or lose because they will either be 6-6 or 5-7 with a better APR than the Bears. They Are:
2. Boston College
6. Miami (OH)
7. NC State
8. North Texas
9. Texas or TCU (Unless they forego at 5-7 after firing Strong and TCU is in if they beat Texas which will give them win number 6)
10. Mississippi or Mississippi State (Ole Miss wins they are 6-6, MSU wins they are 5-7 with a higher APR than Cal but eliminates Ole Miss due to Cal's higher APR.
Thus we have 5 spots open for the Bears to slide in to a bowl. So these are the games that will decide our fate and who we need to win.
1. USC over Notre Dame (Will put Notre Dame at 4-8)
2. Pittsburgh over Syracuse (Will put Syracuse at 4-8)
3. Kent State over Northern Illinois (Will put NIU at 4-8)
4. Tulsa over Cincinnati (Will put Cinci at 4-8)
5. Ohio over Akron (Will put Akron at 5-7 but Cal has better APR),
6. Navy over SMU (Will put SMU at 5-7 but Call has better APR).
7. La Tech over Southern Miss (Will put Southern Miss at 5-7 but Cal has better APR).
8. Charlotte over UTSA (Will put UTSA at 5-7 but Cal has better APR).
9. Arizona over ASU (Will put ASU at 5-7 but Cal has better single year APR since ASU and Cal have same multiyear APR).
10. TCU needs to lose to Texas and Kansas State in the next two weeks.
11. South Alabama needs to lose to Idaho and New Mexico State.
12. Oregon State over Oregon (Will make Oregon 4-8).
Long story short, the Bears need 7 of 12 to fall their way to be able to get in.