Caleb Swanigan recruiting watch: Figuring out the Cal basketball scholarship math

If he commits, Caleb Swanigan could finish off one of the greatest recruiting coups in California Golden Bears history. But as we have to reaffirm at the moment: Purdue appears to be the favorite. Cal is in the mix, with probably a host of other schools like Kentucky, Duke and Arizona, but everyone is chasing the Boilermakers.

The big question: How do we make a spot for him?

Currently if we count all commits from the 2015 Cal recruiting class (including the still unsigned Davon Dillard, waiting for issues with the NCAA Clearinghouse to be resolved), the Bears are filled up. Here are our scholarship players

• Point guards: Tyrone Wallace, Sam Singer, Brandon Chauca
• Shooting guards: Jordan Mathews, Jabari Bird, Stephen Domingo, Tyson Jolly
• Small forwards: Jaylen Brown, Davon Dillard, Roger Moute a Bidias
  
• Power forwards: Ivan Rabb
• Centers: Kameron Rooks, Kingsley Okoroh

That's 13, which is all the spots that Cal can have for next season. So that means if Cal is to land the commitment of Swanigan, that means one of these players will have to either transfer (not something you'd like to do for a program on the rise) or play without a scholarship for a year (something you never ever want to happen at any school, much less Cal).  I can very much guess that Cuonzo Martin would like to avoid either situation, but would almost wholeheartedly prefer the former.

Presuming neither of those unenviable scenarios are part of the equation, it would seem like things would center around Davon Dillard. It sounds like Dillard is all set to play at Cal next season based on his Tweets.

Open gym this summer gone get real competitive with @YoungIvee and @FCHWPO

— Davon Dillard (@DDillard24) May 11, 2015

So the only way that there's an opening is if the NCAA does not resolve the issues with Dillard's school. If that happens, then Dillard might be forced to take the junior college route before paving his path to Cal. We can't know for sure until Dillard's letter of intent gets faxed in, but that is a scenario in play.

And maybe, just maybe, that's the reason Swanigan is waiting before he makes his final decision to recommit. He needs to know if there is a spot available for him at Cal (whether by transfer or other means) before deciding on Purdue or other options, and if so, he might strongly consider the journey to the West. Maybe.

Stay tuned.

What are your thoughts? Do you do what you can to make room for Swanigan, or do you ride and die with the squad you have?