(CGB will have more of an in-depth discussion later on the Pierre Ingram situation this week. Here are just some quick hitting thoughts.)
1. How likely is Pierre Ingram to keep his job?
The answer is probably zero. It's a public relations nightmare for the football program and it needs to be put to bed in the next few weeks. Ingram has placed on administrative leave, which is probably a precursor for termination.
Even if Ingram is eventually acquitted, there is no chance the university will bring him back. Bobby Petrino was fired for lesser transgressions of a similar nature, and this is UC Berkeley, not Arkansas. Ingram has caused the program a great deal of humiliation the past few weeks, and Sonny Dykes will have to spend a lot of extra time trying to lock down a new coach and figuring out who the next recruiting coordinator will be.
The bigger question for Ingram's departure is not if but when. I would say that termination might happen before April 30. Ingram would have to repay a $20,000 signing bonus if he's relieved of his duties before then.
2. How big of an impact recruiting-wise is Ingram's impending loss on the program?
It's a tough one. Ingram has already been established as one of Cal's biggest recruiters on the trail. Here's a list of recruits that Ingram has been partly responsible for recruiting to Cal: Vic Enwere, Devante Downs, Tre Watson, Austin Aaron, Jaylinn Hawkins, Lonny Powell, Semisi Uluave, Kanawai Noa, Carlos Strickland. While the sophomores and Powell are firmly Bears, it's going to be priority uno for the current staff to ensure the rest of the Bears get on campus
The big issue now will be to ensure all of the freshmen commits stay on target for coming on campus this summer. This is a legitimate top 25-caliber recruiting class if there's no more overhaul. Cal will need to find someone in the next few months who can maintain Ingram's recruiting acumen.
3. How big of an impact coaching-wise is Ingram's impending loss on the program?
This is a bit more nebulous. Ingram's impact as a position coach is still not quite clear. His tenure as running backs coach was mixed--the 2013 squad didn't do too great at running the football, but the 2014 team showed constant strides. Daniel Lasco turned into a pretty decent first-team running back, and Vic Enwere and Tre Watson are coming into their own.
On the other hand, Ingram ended up getting moved to wide receivers in favor of Tony Franklin. Franklin is now juggling three jobs but doesn't seem to have missed a beat, and the running backs seem to keep on getting better. If there's any position that coaches itself at this point, it's outside receivers. It's hard to imagine they need that much guidance at this point, and there are decent assistants who can fill in the ranks there (more on that in the next question).
So in terms of overall football strategy for the season, Ingram's loss might not be that huge, especially if Dykes finds a suitable replacement before the season. The long-term issue is recruiting with Ingram, since that seems to be where his primary cachet lies.
4. Who will replace Ingram?
Outside receivers coach has a few potential candidates. Jacob Peeler could get another promotion and move from inside to outside wide receivers. Burl Toler III could get promoted.
Recruiting coordinator though? That will be a toughie. Peeler is a potential candidate, but he's barely started his first actual position coaching job. It'd be a pretty steep promotion curve. It's likely Cal will try and find someone outside the program or split responsibilities this year until they figure out who the best person on staff is to lead the way in 2015.
Cal has started out strong on the recruiting trail this year. They cannot afford to lose the momentum they've built here.
5. How bad is the Ingram episode on the scales of Cal DOOOOOOM?
I wouldn't say it's huge. This is not Toshpocalypse, which detonated what could have been the greatest recruiting class in Cal history. This is the middle of April, three and a half months until the start of fall camp and over double that time until National Signing Day.
There is time to replace him. This is dead season between spring and fall, and Sonny Dykes and crew can figure out what their next step will be here without having to deal with huge consequences. They have time to mend relationships in recruiting and find the best possible replacement. It's gonna be a bumpy road.