Our Computer Overlords Predict
Keys to the Game
Keep UW off the line: Last time around, Washington went 24/30 from the free throw line. They have a bunch of players who know how to draw a foul, and punish you by making the freebies (76% as a team, 10th in the nation). Cal, of course, can be prone to over-aggression and silly fouls on defense. It's a dangerous combo.
One way to avoid fouls would be to play more zone. However, UW probably shoots too well to make the zone a consistent, viable strategy against the Huskies. It's going to be about discipline and energy, and hopefully refs who don't call much.
Get a better game from Reshanda Gray: UW typically struggles to defend Gray, which doesn't really make them unusual. But in Seattle, Gray uncharacteristically struggled to finish shots inside, and also had foul trouble that limited her to 28 minutes. If Gray finishes at her usual rate, and stays on the court, it's hard to see UW's defense holding Cal down.
3 point shooting randomness: Washington is a team that likes to shoot 3s, and Cal isn't. Yet when these teams last met, Cal attempted 26 three pointers as compared to Washington's 13. It didn't work out for the Bears, but Cal's not as far behind UW in 3 point shooting percentage as you might think. If either one of these teams experiences a particularly good day from behind the line, the other will struggle to keep up.