You know what's strange? After having watched this team extensively over the last year in every practice that was made available, and then twice more to open the season, I still have no idea what to think about the 2014 California Golden Bears.
I know that they are undefeated, of course -- the standings tell me so, no matter how many times I rub my eyes with disbelief. But beyond that unchanging, undeniable certainty, they remain relative unknowns, both in ceiling and floor, thanks to a pair of victories racked up against some substandard competition. (Northwestern, for all the talk of them being a solid program, has started 0-2 after falling to Northern Illinois last weekend.)
That makes this next game against Arizona -- 12 days off as it may be -- extremely, extremely important; it'll reveal quite a bit about these Bears and set the tone for they might be able to accomplish this season, the same way Washington State did a year ago.
For now, a bye week awaits, and it couldn't have come at a better time. The Blue and Gold will spend these next 12 days regrouping mentally, getting a little healthier with the few guys who are banged up, and of course, preparing for Rich Rodriguez's yardage eating spread-option attack.
It's a long wait til Tucson, and the inevitable lessons we'll learn from that game. At least in the immediate, let's enjoy what we do have...an honest to God winning streak. Not a win. Not a win. A winning streak.
Life is good in the Strawberry Canyon, in a way it hasn't been in quite some time.
Go Bears.
Announcements
All grades for this one have been weighted toward performances pre-blowout, with the tape review covering almost exclusively the first half, when the game was still...contested?
Next week, I'll have a column breaking down some Arizona and Washington State tape, since we don't have a game. I hope that'll be somewhat useful, or at least worth reading. Even on the bye weeks, your boy is grinding along.
Let's get into it.
Outstanding, Exceeds Expectations, Acceptable, Poor, Dreadful, Troll
I. In which we talk offense
"Yes, this is exactly how it's supposed to be." -- Sonny Dykes, to Jared Goff
Passing offense: Outstanding
Pass protection: Acceptable
Run blocking: Acceptable- (both OL grades have been docked about a minus each for penalties)
Rushing offense: Acceptable
- Live by the Commander, die by the Commander, friends. Yes, young Goff had his best performance to date in a Cal uniform, bar none, and while we've played FCS teams before and had QBs face off against FCS teams, none of them have ever looked this -- 17 of 22, 229 yards, 4 touchdowns and a 224.7 QB rating (95.7 raw QBR if you believe in that kind of thing) -- good.
- For proof...here's our last few QBs against FCS competition. Yes, I know Colorado State is not FCS, but they were the closest thing on the 08 schedule. If you don't like that I put them in here, ignore them from the sample size! CLICK TO ENLARGE
- AND HE HAD FOUR PASSES DROPPED PLUS ONE THROW AWAY. (Only three, I think SHOULD have been caught. There was a throw to Darius Powe up the seam that was kind of tough and a little more excusable.)
- That last note courtesy of the head man himself, by the way, who said so on Sunday evening.That means Jared played essentially perfectly -- touch throws, getting away from traffic, throwing accurately...everything clicked on Saturday, in a really terrifying way for the rest of the Pac-12.
- Even Goff's one throw away was a good move. There was nothing happening on the middle screen action we wanted to run (12:59, 1st quarter).
- As far as Luke Rubenzer goes, you can expect that he will continue to be a big part of the offense going forward, because he is perhaps our best short-yardage option right now, and they'll certainly continue to give him more and more different looks as the season continues. I'll be writing about some of the specific things they're doing now later on in this column -- fast forward to part III if you'd prefer to get right to that.
- He legitimately runs like a guy who's 250 pounds, though. Consistently falls forward...carrying folks...isn't just fast in the open field, either -- can spin and juke to create a little space too.
- If Cedric Dozier has been the most improved player on defense, his offensive counterpart has to be Maurice Harris, who is now living up to his billing as the more sure-handed wideout in the Allen clan. Hands aside, on his touchdown catch, Harris showed yet again that he is tremendously good at tracking the ball in the air and making a play on it...
- ...but not as good as Kenny Lawler, who, by now, has demonstrated a knack for making the ridiculous into the routine. I mean...wow. My friend Mike Rollins thinks Kenny has the best hands in all of CFB, and while I can't say for sure one way or the other, I'd be hard pressed to find wideout who is so consistently highlight reel worthy.
- They love Lawler on the fade route. They love Davis on backshoulder. They have such confidence in both that I wouldn't be surprised if they were ballsy enough to run both at Ifo Ekpre-Olomu next month. Tell me that's not a matchup you're looking forward to. Actually, don't. You'd be lying.
- It's too early to guess at which receivers might or might not leave for the NFL, but with no less than six legitimate targets already in rotation, this unit's going to be completely fine next year, too, regardless of what happens on that front. They won't all leave. *knocks on wood until knuckles bruise*
- I'm setting the over/under on receivers leaving at 1.5, by the way.
- The rushing yardage was an encouraging total to be sure. That's the good part -- we ran, and we ran successfully, almost up and down the field three times.
- That being said, I'm still relatively unsatisfied with how the run game went. There were two carries that broke into the open field by Enwere and of course, Lasco, but besides that, it was largely ho hum stuff, with very little of our guys beating defenders and very little getting to the second level generally. Consistently grabbing 7 or 8 yards is fine, because singles can be just as useful as homeruns, if consistently strung together. This is true. Then you take a look at most of our YPCs on Saturday -- against an FCS team -- and we're not even doing that.
- Even though he has a ton of trouble catching the ball out of the backfield these last two weeks, Daniel Lasco's 50 yard run for touchdown is exactly why I feel like he is the most talented back we have on the roster right now. Speed. Power. Balance. Shiftiness. Hope he keeps getting opportunities to do so, honestly. Watson and Enwere will head this rushing attack in the future as they both get faster and stronger. Their time isn't now just yet...
- Lasco's 50 yard run for touchdown was also mostly his own work. Chris Adcock's dude blows into the backfield and has this play dead right there, only to get shook by Lasco. The rest, you remember well, I'm sure.
- Jared Goff has now run three times in two games this year, which I think might equal, or at least rival his number of intentional runs in 2013. BEAR RAID GOT LEGS BRUHS
- Absolutely have to get cleaner up front, where we had one hold by Crosthwaite, one by Borrayo, and then one by Moore.
- Pass protection held up nicely -- combined with the fact that Goff is very smart and gets rid of the ball quick, there were only two official quarterback hits all game, among 29 total QB dropbacks. No sacks, and a largely, but not entirely pressure-free afternoon. This, too, is as it should be.
- Immediately noticeable: Crosthwaite had trouble getting to the second level a lot of the time -- or at least looked too slow to get there moving up on the first drive. They ran power twice with Borrayo pulling for Lasco to open the game and each time he was unable to get to the backer at the second level. No one was, on either play, actually...then I saw him get reverse pancaked late in the first quarter on a run for Muhammad, too. Even as someone who knows only a smidge of what happens in the trenches, that can't be good.
- I'm not particularly concerned with the rest of the penalties, some of which were just strange. How many times have you seen a receiver flagged for offensive pass interference, let alone two of them in the same game?
- On top of their mindboggling production, some really good stuff from the #OSM blocking wise. Saw Maurice Harris rip a dude's helmet off straight up on a block, then Chris Harper sprinting downfield to make Powe's TD possible. Coach Likens said they don't block a ton, but those were good ones.
II. In which we talk defense
Seven drives and six first half six and outs, on their way to a 45-7 lead. What do you think?
Unit grade: Exceeds Expectations+ | Outstanding
- Not so much to write on these guys since they played so little. (Saves me a little work too. Hahaha.)
- If Hardy Nickerson could return -- either in a more substantial, or complete capacity -- against Arizona, it would be a major boost and nudge our chances of victory further northward. The above would be true of Avery Sebastian too, but it's Nickerson who would probably have a bigger impact at this point. He did see a little more action on Saturday, playing a couple of passing downs, too.
- Part of why I don't feel comfortable making any solid statements about the team thus far? Neither quarterback we've faced has demonstrated an ability to consistently hit open receivers, and we probably won't get one of those until Game 5 against Washington State, actually. So far, Anu Solomon has looked iffy in the deeper-intermediate ranges, and I haven't been able to scout Sefo Liufau yet.
- Probably the biggest surprise through two weeks so far has been Griffin Piatt. I never figured that Art Kaufman would be so aggressive in his substitutions on defense, and as a result, most of our second stringers have seen a ton of field time already, Piatt being one of these guys. Piatt has read -- and subsequently broke -- on the ball extremely well for both his interceptions and been a consistent playmaker, which I'll write a little more about in section three.
- Even the third string rolled out there for a good chunk of Saturday's game, which is why the stats sheet looks slightly worse than it should.
- Todd Barr has really shown up so far with one sack in each game, and some consistent pressure -- saw him have a couple more on Saturday off the edge. So far, the defensive line has exceeded all projections, thanks in part to his and Jalil's play. I'm cautiously optimistic so far, and want to see what they do against Nick Wilson and Terris Jones-Grisby.
- No major catches allowed by the secondary, all of whom look remarkably more disciplined and athletic than a year ago. They're also in contention/contesting for more passes, too.
- Cam Walker gave up no catches though was called for a PI, and Cedric Dozier managed to keep things largely in front of him on the few times he did give something up. Once again, they threw mostly in 37's direction.
- Devante Downs. This is the second week in a row I'll remind you to remember that name for the future. There's no room for him yet...but when there is...he's already the most monstrously sized backer and arguably most athletic one on the roster as a true freshman.
- Although I haven't been looking at Tandy enough to get a full evaluation, I like his aggression, especially on special teams. Strong back to back plays from him late in the second quarter though, tracking a wheel route incomplete, then hitting the Sac State QB from behind.
III. In which we take a look at some tape
I am not a professional scout, and while my interpretations certainly can be (or even might be, whatever) wrong, you will always see me explain why I thought what I thought. Yes, I will keep writing this disclaimer.
SB Nation's embedded photos are reduced in size. The bigger photos are ridiculously sized, but I'll work out those glitches going forward. Also, ignore the fact that the arrows suck. I did them on computer with a touchpad.
Obviously, Luke Rubenzer has been one of the most interesting additions to the offense this season, but if you look closely, Tony Franklin is really setting him up well to succeed, in my opinion -- not only with the amount of running he's asked to do and how they deploy it, but also in the passing attack. This is his second play of the game -- the first was an option handoff to Tre Watson that was called back on penalty, forcing a 1st and 20.
Cal has lined up in below formation with 11 (1 back, 1 TE, 3 WR) personnel, or 10 (1 back, 0 TE, 4 WR) personnel, depending on how you want to classify Ray Hudson, who is lined up in tight toward the bottom of the screen. That's a whole other thing for defenses to figure out though. (Kenny Lawler is the bottom most wide receiver, but not essential to this play.)
What you'll want to pay attention to is the route progression here -- with the X (here, I think it's Davis, but I can't tell from the angle) running a deep clearout route, Rubenzer really has two easy horizontal reads to go through. If Treggs, the slot man running the out, is open, he'll throw it there, or to Hudson on the cross, afterwards. The idea is that one of those reads will come free, since that backside receiver I think will find space to work or settle into on the crossing route, or Treggs' out route will pull a guy out of position to create a window if he himself isn't open.
Notice that all the reads are also in the same direction, limiting the amount of field scanning Rubenzer is asked to do.
In any case, Sac State's safety -- who picks Treggs up because he pushed up-field and looked like he was going vertical -- respects our guy with a deep cushion, and it's an easy gain when Treggs breaks off to cut toward the sideline.
Let's fast forward eight minutes of gametime later, to 5:05 in the first, where we will see Luke Rubenzer heading up another drive that begins from the Cal 40.
The formation is trips right, in a 1 x 3 set up, with Harper, Powe, Treggs, and Lawler aligned from top to bottom, running routes at three levels -- Treggs running a clear-out/go, Lawler on the 10 yard dig, which form a dagger concept between the two of them, and then there's Powe running a cross to give...two receivers going horizontally toward the same side.
Does that sound familiar?
The safety is kind of flat-footed and of course isn't nearly fast enough to match Powe's athleticism, so our massive slot receiver comes free with room to maneuver in space. Had #23 blitzed, Lawler would have been in position to get open too -- he had inside leverage on the cornerback with no other defenders waiting in the middle of the field. As it stands, though, that linebacker drops back, and Powe ends up getting the ball...
He'll pick up a key block from Harper for the last few yards -- Treggs will sneak in there and kind of shield a defender without putting hands on anyone -- and all that's left is the sound of cannons.
They do similar things with Goff, too, of course. I just wanted to demonstrate some of the things I think Rubenzer's looking at as a passer, and how they're setting him up when he's in there.
Alright! Time to switch sides.
Before we begin talking about Griffin Piatt's interception, I suggest you take a look at Chris Brown's recent writeup on Grantland regarding quarters coverage. That dude is by far the best at explaining and normalizing football concepts, which is why you'll see me lean on and refer to his work quite often.
Anyway, back to Piatt, whose most recent quarterback robbery came in what looked to be a similar Cover-4/quarters coverage -- those terms are interchangeable -- the team is lined up four across and he first reads the slot receiver (offensive #2) in order to decide what he needs to do on the play. If that receiver goes vertical, then it's Piatt's job (#26) to pick him up, and if he goes flat, then Piatt will generally look to support the cornerback with the outer-most receiver (#1), or sit and rob.
As you can see, this time -- whether by play design or decision; quarters has variants/adjustments that dictate how the defense is intended to react -- Piatt sits to rob, and sees the tight end (#3) coming up the seam on kind of a short post/dig. Devante Downs, who I've circled here, is screengrabbed here dropping/backpedaling into a hook zone after he realizes its a pass underneath, giving the Bears a sort of bracket.
Downs can't quite make the play with the receiver sneaking behind him, but thanks to Piatt's fantastic break to undercut the route, it's all Cal ball.
I should note that the pass was thrown toward the receiver's outer shoulder, which was a big key to this whole thing. Made it just a little bit closer for Piatt to get to.
Welp. Our benefit!
Other schematic things I noticed/individual play notes
I'll try and keep this somewhat short.
- 12:33, 3rd and 10, 1st quarter -- Cal lines up with five wide (3x2), running back in the left slot. This is, as far as I can recall, the first time we've shown five wide all year, and then the two slots (Khalfani and Treggs) opposite crossing motions on a rub concept. This play results in a Goff scramble for 9 yards, though -- he took pressure off right tackle when Rigsbee picked up the blitzing linebacker late. Khalfani Muhammad would convert the 4th down run by blasting through two tacklers. They'd show the five wide look again on the last play of the first quarter, but time ran out.
- 10:38, 2nd and goal from the 4, 1st quarter -- The TD pass goes to Kenny Lawler on the fade, but what's really interesting here is they make sure he's matched up one on one first with plenty of room to operate. The ball's spotted at the left hash, and Lawler, lined up on the right, has the space to turn his route outward to the corner, but the DB can't just play him for that alone, since a slant is an equal possibility. Tough situation, defense. Tough situation.
- 1:52, 1st and 10 from the Cal 19, 1st quarter -- This is the play that put Kenny Lawler on ESPN...again. Everybody is blocking what I think is outside zone for Khalfani, but then when Sac State's safety rotates down to leave Lawler in single coverage with the corner, Goff decides to pull the ball to take advantage of the matchup. Remember, we'll go one on one with anybody...because of moments like that.
- 1:15, 3rd and 4 from the Sac State 31, 1st quarter -- 3-3-5 look. The game's out of hand at this point, so there's no telling other teams how they'll actually align the first string in 3-3-5, but who we have here with the mixed 1st-2nd string unit: Lopa, Mekari, Westerfield, Kearney, Tandy, Nickerson, Walker (slot), Allensworth, Dozier, Piatt, Sebastian.
- @TPap36 brought it to my attention on Twitter that we ran unbalanced line a few times, specifically at 13:27 in the 2nd quarter, where Rigsbee and Moore lined up next to each other in a Borrayo-Cochran (C), Crosthwaite, Rigsbee, Moore look, with Hudson flanking Borrayo on the left as the in-line TE. Rugbear/Scotty, if you're reading this and would like to speak more on the concept of unbalanced lines, please do.
- 10:31, 3rd and goal from the 2, 2nd quarter -- Simple outflanking on the QB sweep for this TD. Pull playside guard and center, cut some guys on the ground, and let Rubenzer get to the corner. KABAM! Maurice Harris gets enough of two defenders to make sure that happens.
- 9:47, 3rd and 16 from the Sac State 7, 2nd quarter - a 3-2-6 dime look, with Devante Downs and Jalen Jefferson. Todd Barr operated from strong side here, moving over from his usual RDE, with Caleb Coleman and Trey Cheek entering in as the extra DBs. It's worth noting that at this point, Coach Kaufman was likely just experimenting with things, since, again, this would not be the exact personnel grouping if the 1st string was still in the game.
- 0:50, 1st and goal from the Cal 3, 2nd quarter -- Worstell is directing traffic against Sac State motion, then doesn't get a chance to get set himself, so the tight end beats him back inside on a slant for the first Sac State score. Outleveraged. And there went the shutout.
IV. In which we look at some first half statistics
Link to the hard data is here. Only did first half because the game was out of hand in the second half and Connelly always tries to limit the effect of that kind of situation on his data, so I will too.
As always, self compiled and therefore, possibly not mistake free. These are not official, but I do them anyway because I still think they're somewhat useful generally.
FIRST HALF NUMBERS |
Cal |
Sac State |
|
Basics |
Possessions |
8 |
7 |
Yards/Play |
8.11 (398/49) |
2.56 (82/32) |
|
3rd Downs |
Conversions |
66% (6 of 9) |
28.5% (2 of 7) |
Avg. Yards to go |
5.77 yards |
10.42 yards |
|
Avg. 1st down gain |
7.81 yards |
5.076 yards |
|
Power success rate (% of runs with 2 or fewer yards to go that were successful) |
4 of 5 - 80% over whole game |
(Didn't bother recording. Could if you want me to.) | |
|
3 and outs |
0 |
4 (3 + 1 fumble) Also, 2 6 and outs (drives that lasted 6 plays or less) 1 TD drive |
Field Position |
Avg. Starting F.P. |
OWN 47 |
OWN 22.85 |
- When you force your opponent to six and out six of their first seven drives, it usually means they weren't moving the ball well in the first place...but 2.56 yards per play means they were absolutely locked. Down. (Their full game figure rose to 4.57, but that was also playing largely against the 2nd and 3rd teamers in the second half, and is part of why I limited this data set to first half only).
- Although Sacramento State managed some decent gains on first down, things tended to go awry in the middle downs -- you can tell because when faced with an average of 2nd and about 5, they on average lost five yards on second down, since their average yardage to convert on third down dropped all the way to 10.42. The play by play will back this up somewhat, because among Sac State's second down plays in the first half were these gems: a sack/fumble on one drive to lose yardage, a third down that was long due to penalty, and a loss on third down.
- Three of Cal's eight drives began in Sacramento State territory. Zero of seven Sacramento State drives began in Cal territory, thanks to several Langford touchbacks. Even a couple of the kicks that were returnable ended up nowhere. Strong coverage all afternoon.
- What's really terrific here is that Sac State averaged a first half field position of below their own 25, which is even worse than if they had just taken every kickoff for touchback. I love poking around with these numbers.
- Although the Bears averaged a strong -- and consistent -- 8.11 yards on first down, the rushing numbers behind that remain mediocre, as they managed only 3 yards on an average first down run. Throwing the ball was absolutely golden, though. An average pass on first down in the first half went for close to 12 yards. Yes. Throwing the ball on first down, on average, resulted in another first down.
- We were 4 of 5 in Power Success Run situations -- defined by Bill Connelly as runs on 3rd or 4th and 2 or less, goal to go included. Khalfani was 2 for 2 on Saturday, Tre Watson was 1 for 1 on Saturday, Luke Rubenzer was 1 for 1 on Saturday (and 2 for 2 on the year), while Austin Hinder failed to convert his only opportunity. That makes us 5 of 6 in this area, by my unofficial count.
- Notice, if you will, that padded battering ram Vic Enwere, who we would expect to be out there on 3rd or 4th and 2, has yet to actually try one.
V. In which there is some brief discussion on special teams
Unit grade: Acceptable
- Strong punt game from Cole Leininger, who was able to unleash his leg a bit more to the tune of a 46 yard average. Both punts were also downed inside the 20, with, once again, no returns. Promising so far, although the roof fell in on this group around this time last year, once we started having punts returned, so we'll have to see.
- I was actually hoping Cole would get the benefit of the bench the entire game. Alas.
- Trevor Davis had the one fumble, but overall, and it's worth repeating again, the punt return game is miles ahead of where it was last year. Davis ended up breaking nearly two special teams touchdowns by himself, muffed punt be damned. Harper was fantastic too -- both these guys averaged 10 yards per return. Love their two punt returner formation. Yes, I know I wrote that last week.
- Langford missed one from 42 and hit from 47 and 33, with 4 of 10 kickoffs landing in the end zone. No major returns given up. All in all, an uneventful afternoon from this group..just the way we like it.
VI. In which there is a section for other notes
- Thank you, Chris Harper, for making me look like a genius by snagging that final touchdown. I am now 2 of 3 on season predictions, with the only miss coming on Rubenzer -- and that was at least in part because I wrote the predictions before camp. So far so good.
- Wonder if Coach Dykes really wanted to #drop50 too, since he put the starters back out...
- AJ Greathouse also played, bringing our freshman count to nine. Eight were officially listed from last week, not including Greathouse.
- All of the top six Cal receivers have caught touchdowns. YOU GET A TOUCHDOWN! YOU GET A TOUCHDOWN! EVERYBODY GETS A TOUCHDOWN!
- Laughed really hard at the warning we received on the sideline. KP! YOU'RE THE GET BACK COACH, RIGHT ?! YOU HAVE LIKE, TWO JOBS!!!
- That comment is made in complete jest, by the way. Kevin Parker -- who many know better as Rope Coach -- does a ton for this program, and his efforts are appreciated greatly.
- These teams are projected to return their starting quarterbacks for the 2015 season: USC (Cody Kessler), Washington (Cyler Miles), Colorado (Sefo Liufau), Arizona (Anu Solomon)...and Cal (Jared Goff).
- That means that the following teams will have a new signal caller behind center next year: Arizona State, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Utah, UCLA, Washington State.
- Interpret the last two bulletpoints as you will.
- We leave you with the schedule matrix, after week 2:
Week One
Week Two
SHOULD: Colorado, Sacramento State
SHOULD: Colorado
COULD: Washington State, Arizona, Oregon State, BYU, Washington???
COULD: Washington State, Arizona, Oregon State, Washington, UCLA???
WHO KNOWS: BYU
PROBABLY WON'T: Stanford, UCLA, Oregon, USC,
WashingtonPROBABLY WON'T: Stanford, Oregon, USC
BEAT: Northwestern
BEAT: Northwestern, Sacramento State
VII. In which I cut another promo
A little bit non-wrestly, but you get the idea.
One by one, they fall -- the grains of sand in our ethereal hourglass, their descent continuing the passing of days.
This is not a countdown to go 3-0, not a countdown to improve our record or work toward bowl eligibility. Those things are up for grabs every week.
This is a countdown to Statement Day; the confines of Arizona Stadium serving as our stage, and our audience, every state and program on this coast. Oh yes, the eyes of the Pacific -- from as far north as Washington, and as far east as Utah -- will all be watching, waiting to pounce and declare that what we've shown these last two weeks is nothing more than a desert mirage.
But those who tune in looking for disaster and regression will find none -- hearing only the roars of our revival instead.
Those who watch expecting our failure will leave stunned -- knowing the Golden Bears are to be respected, feared again.
Those who listen for Arizona to run roughshod over its Blue and Gold visitors will be so hopelessly, utterly incorrect, finding only this undeniable conclusion at game's end: that this conference cannot keep us in the cellar any longer, for we are waking, and we are ready.
And it is on this stage that we leave..an example, friends -- the remains of a beaten and savaged Arizona defense; its running lanes and throwing windows left as wide as the Grand Canyon their state sports so proudly.
Take notice, and prepare accordingly, Wildcats.
Because we will. Every second from now until then, we will spend breathing, preparing, scripting, writing, drafting, planning, plotting for our invasion, our destruction of Tucson two weeks in the making.
We're coming. Expect us.