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Cal is back home for the final two games in a stretch of winnable contests between the LA road trip and the Stanford road trip . . . and it's Washington. BOO! For the record, I'm not booing because of the Tosh to-do. I'm booing because Washington beat Cal twice last year, two losses that greatly contributed to a season that spiraled of the rails.
When I wrote up my Pac-12 preview, I had this to say about Washington:
I could imagine Washington surprising a few people if Regina Rogers can solve her health, conditioning and fouling problems to the point that she can play more than half a game. But at this point, in her forth year in Seattle, I’m guessing she is what she is – an excellent post player playing 7th man minutes off the bench.
Well, she's proven me wrong to the tune of 27 minutes per game, and she's leading UW in scoring at 16.2/game. She and freshman guard Jazmine Davis are the players that make the Huskies go, and it's Cal's job to slow them down. Gen Brandon getting Rogers in foul trouble would be a good way to start.
Tempo Free Chart
Our computer overlords predict: Sagarin Predictor: Cal by 13 points
Chart concept borrowed from MGoBlog, all stats courtesy of wbbstate.com and are accurate as of 1/18. Stat glossary found here. One letter indicates 10 place advantage in national rankings, two letters indicate 100 place advantage, three indicates 200 place advantage, etc.
|Category||Cal Ranking||UW Ranking||Advantage|
|Cal eFG% vs. UW Def eFG%||127||8||WW|
|Cal Def eFG% vs. UW eFG%||110||161||C|
|Cal TO% vs. UW Def TO%||93||233||CC|
|Cal Def TO% vs. UW TO%||187||168||W|
|Cal Reb% vs. UW Reb%||2||36||C|
|Cal FTR vs. UW Def FTR||105||223||CC|
|Cal Def FTR vs. UW FTR||106||55||W|
|Cal O-PPP vs. UW D-PPP||45||45||-|
|Cal D-PPP vs. UW O-PPP||73||127||C|
It's another stat chart that looks deceptively even because Cal's opponent has played a much weaker schedule than Cal has. That's why the Sagarin Predictor has Cal as a heavy favorite despite what the stats say.
That said, there are two categories that kinda scare me - Washington's field goal defense and rebounding. Cal is at its most vulnerable when it can't make shots and can't get rebounds to compensate, and hypothetically Washington has the tools to take advantage.