Time: 5 PM PT/8 PM ET
TV: CSN Bay Area at 5:40 PM PT, CSN+ from 5-5:40 PM PT
Radio: KNEW 910 AM
Streams: Post links in comments
After the jump, some numbers to breakdown.
Here are the statistical comparisons courtesy of Pomeroy. First, the Furd offense vs. the Cal defense. National rank in parentheses
|Furd Offense||Cal Defense|
|Adj. Efficiency||102.8 (124)||89.2 (28)|
|Adj. Tempo||65.6 (275)||70.0 (78)|
|Effective FG%||49.2 (151)||44.9 (52)|
|Turnover %||21.2 (189)||19.2 (253)|
|Off. Reb. %||37.2 (43)||24.3 (5)|
|FTA/FGA||39.5 (152)||32.8 (83)|
As you can see, the Cardinal are a pretty average offensive team. They slow the pace down and seem to rely on one-and-done possessions, which means they'll probably be equipped to handle Cal's halfcourt defense pacewise. They'll know how to run a slow set and be effective as they can possibly be.
|Cal Offense||Furd Defense|
|Adj. Efficiency||100.8 (157)||95.0 (82)|
|Adj. Tempo||70.0 (78)||65.6 (275)|
|Effective FG%||47.7 (217)||46.3 (87)|
|Turnover %||22.0 (224)||23.6 (52)|
|Off. Reb. %||28.0 (297)||28.7 (44)|
|FTA/FGA||47.7 (22)||33.6 (101) |
This is a Cal team that isn't very good at anything offensively except drawing fouls; matching up with a decent Cardinal defense. We could have an ugly one on our hands.
Alpha Dog: Jeremy Green (6'4", 190 lb): 74.1% of minutes (496th), 27.0% of possessions (177th), 36.5% of shots taken (5th), 12.7 TORate (200th)
You can probably guess that the success of the Cardinal has been dependent on the shooting ability of Green. The numbers bear that out.
|2010-11-15||SD 48, STAN 64||20||2||1-7||14.3||0-0||0-2||0.0||2||1||3||0||1||0||3||2|
|2010-11-18||UVA 60, STAN 81||30||21||8-13||61.5||0-0||5-9||55.6||1||1||2||1||0||0||1||2|
|2010-11-21||UAPB 49, STAN 92||23||21||6-13||46.2||5-6||83.3||4-7||57.1||0||3||3||0||1||0||0||0|
|2010-11-25||MURRAY 55, STAN 52||29||9||3-10||30.0||0-0||3-8||37.5||0||0||0||1||0||0||1||4|
|2010-11-26||STAN 53, TUL 65||29||20||7-21||33.3||3-3||100.0||3-7||42.9||2||4||6||1||0||0||3||4|
|2010-11-28||DEP 74, STAN 81||39||19||8-16||50.0||2-4||50.0||1-4||25.0||1||1||2||2||0||1||2||1|
|2010-12-12||UCR 48, STAN 55||37||22||8-23||34.8||1-1||100.0||5-10||50.0||0||1||1||1||0||0||3||2|
|2010-12-15||NCAT 59, STAN 76||29||18||7-18||38.9||0-0||4-10||40.0||0||0||0||3||1||0||0||2|
|2010-12-18||STAN 50, BUTLER 83||30||16||5-15||33.3||4-4||100.0||2-8||25.0||2||1||3||0||0||0||1||3|
|2010-12-21||STAN 68, OSU 79||34||17||6-12||50.0||3-5||60.0||2-4||50.0||1||4||5||3||0||0||3||4|
|2010-12-28||YALE 44, STAN 60||34||15||6-12||50.0||0-0||3-4||75.0||1||3||4||1||1||0||1||2|
You can see that when Green is efficient with his shot-making (like he was against Virginia and DePaul), they're very tough to beat. But when he's struggling, like against Butler and Murray State, they are eminently beatable. The correlation isn't completely there, but you can tell a better-shooting Green makes for a better team. Jorge Gutierrez will be asked to lock him down.
Second banana: Josh Owens (6'8", 220 lb): 57.5 eFG% (209th), 59.5 TS% (253rd), 10.1 Offensive Rebound% (345th), 18.8 Defensive Rebound% (282nd), 4.6 Block % (244th)
Owens is the steady inside force, providing good scoring and strong rebounding to give the Cardinal both extra possessions and prevent opponents from doing the same. You can see from the graph above how consistent he is all season long. Markhuri Sanders-Frison will have his hands full with his activity.
Up-and-comer: Dwight Powell (6'10", 215 lb): 114.4 offensive rating (325th), 64.8 eFG% (35th), 69.3 TS% (17th), 3.5 block % (353rd), 86.4 FT rate (21st)
Of all the freshmen that Cal and Stanford picked up last season, Powell is undeniably the most talented, and the one that could be suiting up in the pros down the road. Of course, his youth prevents him from really dominating, so his brilliance has only been sporadic. Harper Kamp probably gets him first, but I'd throw Richard Solomon down on him for stretches, since his mobility matches up pretty well with Powell's. Neither of them are great post players (they'll take the ball off the dribble and drive more).
Jarrett Mann (6'3", 185 lb): 25.7 assist rate (224th)
Mann is pretty good at distributing, but not much good at anything else; he's shooting under 30% from the field and made only 36% of his free throws. Expect Cal to sag off Mann defensively and dare him to make him shots to focus on Green, Owens and Powell.
Jack Trotter (6'9", 220 lb): 116.0 offensive rating (270th), 10.3 offensive rebound % (330th) 22.1 defensive rebound % (115th), 11.4 turnover rate (120th)
The Cardinal have the advantage in terms of size, but their perimeter shooting is just as bad as Cal's, so it's like looking in the mirror. Flip the coin!