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Project Kevin Riley's 2010 Cal Football Season. Can He Surpass Kyle Boller?

This is your fun afternoon experiment. Let's make some predictions about this season!

To see how we made our projection, first let's go back in the hot tub time machine and check out Kyle Boller's stats.

PASSING GP Effic Att-Cmp-Int Pct Yds TD Lng Avg/G
Boller, 2000 11 104.49 349-163-13 46.7 2121 15 81 192.8
Boller, 2001 10 110.24 272-134-10 49.3 1741 12 48 174.1
Boller, 2002 12 126.81 421-225-10 53.4 2815 28 55 234.6

For all the hand-wring about Riley, his stats as a junior are better than Boller's senior numbers, and WAY better than his junior numbers. However, the base-line rate of expectation had been so low that Boller's numbers looked like brilliance. (Well, that and Lashaun Ward dropping a hundred of those passes.)

Stat-expert Berkelium decided these were probably bad numbers to use--Boller had a new coach. A much, much, MUCH better coach. So we looked at Aaron Rodgers's stat improvement from his junior to senior season.

Project Kevin Riley's 2010 season and leave it in the comments!

So we pull up the stats on #8.

PASSING GP Effic Att-Cmp-Int Pct Yds TD Lng Avg/G
Rodgers, 2003 13 146.58 349-215-5 61.6 2903 19 79 223.3
Rodgers, 2004 12 154.35 316-209-8 66.1 2566 24 80 213.8

The first thing you say is "Wow. Pretty." Rodgers's junior season is better than any season by any quarterback Tedford has coached (the closest is Longshore 2006). And Rodgers and Riley could have similar senior scenarios--returning offensive linemen and receivers, and an experienced tailback taking over the helm.

Now, here's Riley's past two seasons (numbers from cfbstats).

PASSING GP-GS Effic Cmp-Att-Int Pct Yds TD Lng Avg/G
Riley, 2008 11-13 117.85 112-221-6 50.7 1360 14 59 123.6
Riley, 2009 13-13 128.74 209-382-8 54.7 2850 18 61 219.2

Hmm. Not real impressive. Surprisingly Boller-type stats. There are even some similarities between Boller and Riley that go beyond the numbers (strong arm, inaccuracy problems, average offensive units).

Thanks to Berkelium extrapolating the data from Rodgers's evolution with Tedford from sophomore to junior season, this is the senior season we came up with for Riley.

2492yds (2700 if bowl game)
60.29% (~193/~320)
22TD (24 if bowl game)
12INT(13 if bowl game)

I'd imagine many of us would take this season. A year ago, Hydrotech forecasted that if Riley completes 60% of his passes, the Bears would win nine games....and if Riley completed the number of passes he end up completing in 2009, he should be fetching Beau Sweeney's water.

Now, Cal exceeded those expectations and won 8 games despite Riley's troubles. If Riley completed 60% of his passes, who knows how good they can be?

Would you be satisfied with this season from Riley? Should this projection to be higher or lower?