FanPost

The definitive Best vs. Quizz stats megapost

Given all of the discussion regarding offensive matchups in this week's game, as well as Danzig's suggestion that the two offenses are basically mirror images of each other, I thought it would be interesting to see how Best and Quizz stack up statistically.

Now, as we all know, Rishi is a strong proponent of Quizz over Best. However, Rishi is also a big fan of lemon drops, the show Friends, and bathing in Axe, all of which contribute to somewhat undermining his credibility.

Clearly the best way to resolve this debate is to look at lots of statistics. Because statistics never lie!

Note: Although I clearly have way too much free time on my hands, I didn't feel upto including all of their receiving data as well. So this is a comparison of Best and Quizz as rushers only.

The uber-basics:


Carries Yards Avg TD
J. Best 132 838 6.3 11
J. Rodgers 172 922 5.4 14

 

(What's with the Js? Is this part of a diabolical ATQ plot to win the Pac-10...?)

Ok, Quizz gets more carries, Best gets more yards per carry, nothing we didn't know. Let's look at their game-by-game records, after the jump...

Jahvid Best


Carries Yards Avg Long TD
Maryland 10 137 13.7 73 2
Eastern Washington 17 144 8.5 30 1
@Minnesota 26 131 5 33 5
@Oregon 16 55 3.4 11 0
USC 14 47 3.4 13 0
@UCLA 18 102 5.7 93 1
Washington State 13 159 12.2 61 2
@Arizona State 18 63 3.5 8 0

 

Jaquizz Rodgers


Carries Yards Avg Long TD
Portland State 16 103 6.4 43 3
@UNLV 26 166 6.4 47 1
Cincinnati 20 73 3.7 24 1
Arizona 16 85 5.3 19 2
@Arizona State 17 81 4.8 32 2
Stanford 33 189 5.7 61 4
@USC 20 113 5.7 32 1
UCLA 24 112 4.7 16 0

 

Obviously seeing more consistency from Quizz there, while Best is showing a lot more deviation. More statistics, courtesy of CFBstats.com:

Jahvid Best

Split G Att Yards Avg. TD Yards/G
All Games 8 132 838 6.35 11 104.75







at Home 4 54 487 9.02 5 121.75
on Road 4 78 351 4.5 6 87.75







vs. Conference 5 79 426 5.39 3 85.2
vs. Non-Conference 3 53 412 7.77 8 137.33







vs. Winning 3 56 233 4.16 5 77.67
vs. Non-Winning 5 76 605 7.96 6 121







in Wins 6 102 736 7.22 11 122.67
in Losses 2 30 102 3.4 0 51







vs. Ranked (AP) 2 30 102 3.4 0 51
vs. Unranked (AP) 6 102 736 7.22 11 122.67

Situation G Att Yards Avg. TD 1st
All Plays 8 132 838 6.35 11 28







1st Half 8 86 674 7.84 7 22
2nd Half/OT 8 46 164 3.57 4 6







1st Quarter 8 41 351 8.56 4 15
2nd Quarter 8 45 323 7.18 3 7
3rd Quarter 8 24 139 5.79 2 5
4th Quarter 4 22 25 1.14 2 1







1st Down 8 81 465 5.74 4 15
2nd Down 8 42 354 8.43 6 11
3rd Down 5 9 19 2.11 1 2
4th Down 0 0 0 - 0 0

Jaquizz Rodgers

Split G Att Yards Avg. TD Yards/G
All Games 8 172 922 5.36 14 115.25







at Home 5 109 562 5.16 10 112.4
on Road 3 63 360 5.71 4 120







vs. Conference 5 110 580 5.27 9 116
vs. Non-Conference 3 62 342 5.52 5 114







vs. Winning 4 89 460 5.17 8 115
vs. Non-Winning 4 83 462 5.57 6 115.5







in Wins 5 116 651 5.61 10 130.2
in Losses 3 56 271 4.84 4 90.33







vs. Ranked (AP) 3 56 271 4.84 4 90.33
vs. Unranked (AP) 5 116 651 5.61 10 130.2

Situation G Att Yards Avg. TD 1st
All Plays 8 172 922 5.36 14 35







1st Half 8 96 462 4.81 8 21
2nd Half/OT 8 76 460 6.05 6 14







1st Quarter 8 49 299 6.1 5 14
2nd Quarter 7 47 163 3.47 3 7
3rd Quarter 8 40 345 8.63 3 11
4th Quarter 7 36 115 3.19 3 3
Overtime 0 0 0 - 0 0







1st Down 8 114 587 5.15 8 15
2nd Down 8 45 301 6.69 5 15
3rd Down 6 13 34 2.62 1 5
4th Down 0 0 0 - 0 0

Note that Best has gotten a first down on 2/9 3rd down attempts, while Quizz has done so on 5/13.

To narrow things down a little more, there are two things we can do:

1. Look at common opponents
2. Adjust for opponent's average run defense

What the hell, let's do both.

Common opponents

Carries Yards Avg Long TD
Best vs. USC/UCLA/ASU 50 212 4.24 93 1
Quizz vs. USC/UCLA/ASU 61 306 5.02 32 3

 

Adjusted for Defensive Averages

Jahvid Best

Actual YPG Average Index Actual YPC Average Index
Maryland 137 141.13 0.97 13.7 3.78 3.62
Eastern Washington
@Minnesota 131 171.89 0.76 5 4.25 1.18
@Oregon 55 121.5 0.45 3.4 3.28 1.04
USC 47 118.75 0.40 3.4 3.41 1.00
@UCLA 102 157.5 0.65 5.7 4.09 1.39
Washington State 159 220.38 0.72 12.2 5.74 2.13
@Arizona State 63 80.13 0.79 3.5 2.56 1.37
AVERAGE 0.68
1.67

 

Jaquizz Rodgers

Actual YPG Average Index Actual YPC Average Index
Portland State
@UNLV 166 212.33 0.78 6.4 5.97 1.07
Cincinnati 73 115.88 0.63 3.7 3.11 1.19
Arizona 85 101.29 0.84 5.3 3.58 1.48
@Arizona State 81 80.13 1.01 4.8 2.56 1.88
Stanford 189 126.38 1.50 5.7 4.16 1.37
@USC 113 118.75 0.95 5.7 3.41 1.67
UCLA 112 157.5 0.71 4.7 4.09 1.15
AVERAGE 0.92 1.40

 

As you can see, Quizz does better in terms of YPG, although this is heavily weighted by the fact that he gets significantly more carries per game. The more important statistic is YPC - and interestingly enough, even in those horrific beat-downs against Oregon and USC, Best never got less than the average YPC against the respective defenses. His average YPC index is skewed somewhat by the Maryland and Wazzou games, but overall it's still pretty close to Quizz's.

This brings up an interesting question: who would marry TwistNHook? Seriously, who in their right mind would even consider doing that? What the fuck was she thinking?

Another interesting question: given that Best seems to do relatively poorly against tough defenses, while Quizz shows less deviation, is Best a "boom or bust" kind of back who is either going to break off a long run or get stuffed, but can't really be counted on to deliver a few yards when it counts? (Kind of the opposite of the NFL back who said "If you need one yard, I'll get you three. If you need five yards, I'll get you three.)

It's hard to answer that question because a large part of his problems against tougher opponents can be attributed to them stacking the box against us - but hey, this is CGB, not being able to answer a question correctly has never stopped anyone from trying!

 

Best Quizz
Yards 832 927
Attempts 131 172
  
Mean:  6.35 5.39
Median:  3.00 3
Stddev:  13.25 8.74
0/Neg: 30 32
% 0/Neg:  22.90% 18.60%
  
10+:  22 23
% 10+:  16.79% 13.37%
20+  12 7
% 20+:  9.16% 4.07%
Avg TD: 27.09 8.79

 

I found these numbers interesting on a number of levels:

  • Best has a higher YPC average, but also a much higher standard deviation, which suggests that his YPC might be at least partially a result of long runs.
  • This is reinforced by his relatively high % of carries that are either for negative yardage, no yardage, or for more than 10 yards. As a matter of fact: almost a third of his carries are either stopped at/behind the line of scrimmage or go for 20+ yards, which is a pretty ridiculous statistic.
  • His avg TD run is also interesting, as it suggests that most of his TDs come from the long runs that he breaks off (keep in mind that average is in spite of the several TDs he's punched in from the red zone).

One more thing to look at - success rate. I'm using the Football Outsiders formula, which considers a play successful if it obtains 40% of needed yardage on first down, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd or 4th down. This is possibly the best metric for evaluating running backs because it not only avoids being skewed by long plays, but also looks at each play in context: a 2 yard rush on 3rd and 1 is way more important than a 6 yard rush on 1st and 10. That being said...

Best is successful on 49.6% of plays this season.
Quizz is successful on 50.6% of plays this season.

Against common opponents (USC/UCLA/ASU):

Best is successful on 34.7% of plays.
Quizz is successful on 49.2 of plays.

So...I dunno. Looks like Best is more of a home-run threat, but Quizz is more reliable in terms of moving the chains and picking up yardage while retaining an element of home-run-threatness. In other words, I spend a bunch of time writing a fanpost that tells us absolutely nothing we don't already know.

Thoughts? Discuss! Berate! Mock TwistNHook!

Be nice. You can find the original CGB team at WriteForCalifornia.com.

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