We've run an Inside The Numbers post for the following teams:
Maryland, EWU, Minnesota, and UCLA.
We haven't done it for the following teams:
Oregon and USC
With that in mind, LET'S RUN THE NUMBERS ON WASHINGTON STATE! Leave nothing to chance. NOTHING! In that vein, Avinash and myself take a few moments to look over some WSU numbers and see what conclusions we can draw. Enjoy the stats and add your thoughts after the jump. GO BEARS!
TwistNHook: First, let's take a look at their passing stats:
| Situation | G | Att | Comp | Pct. | Yards | Int | TD | Rating | Long | 1st | 15+ | 25+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Plays | 6 | 201 | 104 | 51.7 | 1143 | 10 | 5 | 97.77 | 99 | 47 | 24 | 8 |
| 1st Half | 6 | 102 | 49 | 48.0 | 464 | 6 | 1 | 77.72 | 33 | 21 | 10 | 3 |
| 2nd Half/OT | 6 | 99 | 55 | 55.6 | 679 | 4 | 4 | 118.43 | 99 | 26 | 14 | 5 |
| 1st Quarter | 6 | 39 | 18 | 46.2 | 169 | 3 | 0 | 67.17 | 29 | 9 | 3 | 1 |
| 2nd Quarter | 6 | 63 | 31 | 49.2 | 295 | 3 | 1 | 84.27 | 33 | 12 | 7 | 2 |
| 3rd Quarter | 5 | 33 | 18 | 54.5 | 288 | 2 | 2 | 135.74 | 47 | 10 | 6 | 3 |
| 4th Quarter | 6 | 65 | 37 | 56.9 | 391 | 2 | 2 | 111.45 | 99 | 16 | 8 | 2 |
Uh, I don't want to beat a dead horse here, but this ain't good. I realize that you can't beat a dead horse when it's the first comment you make, but let's be honest here. I have yet to even look at the rest of the stats and I kinda know how this one is going to go. Just take a look at their ratings. 77 in the first half! 77! In the NFL that is not very good. In college, that's horrific. Their numbers actually improve in the second half. Not great, but actually mediocre. This might be due to being down by a lot and the opponents playing softer coverage. I'm not entirely sure. What I do know is that 6-1 Int to TD ratio in the first half favors Cal. If we can get a few picks early in this game, we could get into a solid position to not have to worry too much about the second half.
Avinash:
Winning By 15+ Pts
0
0
0
-
0
0
0
-
0
0
0
0
Winning By 8-14 Pts
0
0
0
-
0
0
0
-
0
0
0
0
Winning By 1-7 Pts
0
0
0
-
0
0
0
-
0
0
0
0
Tied
3
11
5
45.5
34
1
0
53.24
13
2
0
0
Losing By 1-7 Pts
5
37
18
48.6
189
2
1
89.67
29
9
5
1
Losing By 8-14 Pts
5
36
18
50.0
160
1
0
81.77
22
8
5
0
Losing By 15+ Pts
6
117
63
53.8
760
6
4
109.44
99
28
14
7
Looks like you're right. Although it appears that Wazzu's QBs are behind all the time, so it's hard to tell (their one win, they didn't lead until the game winning field goal). We need Losing by 25+, Losing by 35+, Losing by 45+ stats to understand the deeper meaning.
"Both of these players unfortunately suffered career ending injuries at the end of this leap" via seattletimes.nwsource.com
Jeff Tuel will get the start though, so let's focus on him (Lobbestael is the backup, and has some awful stats):
Own 1 To 20 Yd Ln
3
7
5
71.4
130
0
1
274.57
99
3
3
1
Own 21 To 39 Yd Ln
2
15
7
46.7
50
0
0
74.67
17
3
1
0
Own 40 To Opp 40 Yd Ln
2
8
7
87.5
50
0
0
140.00
18
3
1
0
Opp 39 To 21 Yd Ln
2
11
6
54.5
67
2
1
99.35
23
2
1
0
Opp 20 To 1 Yd Ln (RZ)
1
5
1
20.0
11
1
0
-1.52
11
1
0
0
You can only tell so much from this small a sample, but wow...I didn't even think a negative college passer rating was possible.
He seems very comfortable at getting his team out of bad territory (he threw a 99 yard touchdown pass) but struggles once he gets into opposing territory. He did throw a touchdown against USC's third stringers in super garbage time, but other than that, three picks, around a 40% completion rate. Still, it's better than Lobbastel, who seems to look horrible all over the field.
TwistNHook: Let's take a look at their rushing numbers.
I am saddened that James Montgomery got injured and will miss this game, because
a)it would have been great to see him play
b)he was their best back, I believe.
Now, we have Dwight "Don't Be" Tardy "To The Party." Yes, I know that not only is that Bermanism truly heinous, but the fact that I know what "Don't Be Tardy To The Party" is means I should just turn in my Y chromosome right now.
a)it would have been great to see him play
b)he was their best back, I believe.
Now, we have Dwight "Don't Be" Tardy "To The Party." Yes, I know that not only is that Bermanism truly heinous, but the fact that I know what "Don't Be Tardy To The Party" is means I should just turn in my Y chromosome right now.
| Situation | G | Att | Yards | Avg. | TD | Long | 1st | 10+ | 20+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Plays | 6 | 200 | 453 | 2.27 | 4 | 40 | 29 | 15 | 5 |
| 1st Half | 6 | 107 | 248 | 2.32 | 0 | 23 | 18 | 11 | 2 |
| 2nd Half/OT | 6 | 93 | 205 | 2.20 | 4 | 40 | 11 | 4 | 3 |
| 1st Quarter | 6 | 57 | 133 | 2.33 | 0 | 23 | 10 | 5 | 2 |
| 2nd Quarter | 6 | 50 | 115 | 2.30 | 0 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 0 |
| 3rd Quarter | 6 | 57 | 135 | 2.37 | 2 | 28 | 7 | 2 | 1 |
| 4th Quarter | 6 | 34 | 67 | 1.97 | 2 | 40 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
From the guys who brought you terrible passing stats, we now have terrible rushing stats. Wow, this is bad. 2.27 yards per carry. The 1.97 yards per carry in the 4th is bad, but if you see they have much fewer attempts in the 4th. Most likely due to the fact that they are behind and throwing frantically to catch up. There's not really a lot you have to analyze here. Considering that we've generally held opposing RBs in check, save for anybody in a green and gold jersey and Joe McKnight from time to time, I feel fairly good at keeping Dwight Tardy under control.
Avinash: To be fair, there are a lot of sacks there.
Tardy won't be the only guy; Logwone MItz and Carl Winston are going to see action too. They will probably all get savaged.
| 1st Down | 6 | 91 | 314 | 3.45 | 0 | 40 | 6 | 8 | 4 |
| 2nd Down | 6 | 68 | 118 | 1.74 | 2 | 20 | 11 | 5 | 1 |
| 3rd Down | 6 | 36 | -10 | -0.28 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| 3rd Down, 1-3 To Go | 6 | 11 | 27 | 2.45 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| 3rd Down, 4-6 To Go | 5 | 11 | -11 | -1.00 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3rd Down, 7-9 To Go | 2 | 3 | -6 | -2.00 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3rd Down, 10+ To Go | 4 | 11 | -20 | -1.82 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4th Down | 3 | 5 | 31 | 6.20 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Clearly the key to open up Wazzu's game is to get into...4th down situations???
TwistNHook: Dude's name is Logwone?
If their passing attack isn't very strong, what about their passing D? Can they stop the pass?
The answer is no. SURPRISE!
I like how they are giving up 67% of their passes with a rating of 149.54. That first quarter rating given up is absurd. 201! So, when the game is close (ostensibly) and their opponents are playing first string, they have a redick success rate. 201 is beyond insane. Hopefully, this will give Riley an opportunity to continue building confidence. He appears to be an emotional player. I say that not as an insult or even really a compliment, but what appears to be a statement of fact.
For example, after the interception against USC, he looked rattle for the rest of the game. But at UCLA, when he had some great success under his belt early, his confidence was sky high and his play never really dipped. Hopefully, Riley can take advantage of a weak opponent here and continue to build confidence from that UCLA game. I mean these numbers speak for themselves. 7 TDs allowed in the first quarter by the pass. That's just crazy.
The answer is no. SURPRISE!
| Situation | G | Att | Comp | Pct. | Yards | Int | TD | Rating | Long | 1st | 15+ | 25+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Plays | 6 | 200 | 134 | 67.0 | 1739 | 7 | 10 | 149.54 | 73 | 67 | 34 | 17 |
| 1st Half | 6 | 103 | 74 | 71.8 | 1020 | 1 | 9 | 181.94 | 73 | 34 | 20 | 12 |
| 2nd Half/OT | 6 | 97 | 60 | 61.9 | 719 | 6 | 1 | 115.15 | 61 | 33 | 14 | 5 |
| 1st Quarter | 6 | 52 | 40 | 76.9 | 520 | 1 | 7 | 201.49 | 57 | 19 | 10 | 6 |
| 2nd Quarter | 6 | 51 | 34 | 66.7 | 500 | 0 | 2 | 161.96 | 73 | 15 | 10 | 6 |
| 3rd Quarter | 6 | 53 | 32 | 60.4 | 382 | 3 | 1 | 115.84 | 40 | 19 | 8 | 2 |
| 4th Quarter | 6 | 43 | 28 | 65.1 | 337 | 2 | 0 | 121.65 | 61 | 14 | 6 | 3 |
I like how they are giving up 67% of their passes with a rating of 149.54. That first quarter rating given up is absurd. 201! So, when the game is close (ostensibly) and their opponents are playing first string, they have a redick success rate. 201 is beyond insane. Hopefully, this will give Riley an opportunity to continue building confidence. He appears to be an emotional player. I say that not as an insult or even really a compliment, but what appears to be a statement of fact.
For example, after the interception against USC, he looked rattle for the rest of the game. But at UCLA, when he had some great success under his belt early, his confidence was sky high and his play never really dipped. Hopefully, Riley can take advantage of a weak opponent here and continue to build confidence from that UCLA game. I mean these numbers speak for themselves. 7 TDs allowed in the first quarter by the pass. That's just crazy.
Avinash: These stats are even more absurd.
| 1st Down | 6 | 98 | 70 | 71.4 | 921 | 4 | 3 | 152.31 | 61 | 35 | 18 | 8 |
| 2nd Down | 6 | 55 | 37 | 67.3 | 515 | 0 | 5 | 175.93 | 73 | 17 | 10 | 6 |
| 3rd Down | 6 | 43 | 25 | 58.1 | 249 | 3 | 2 | 108.18 | 40 | 13 | 4 | 1 |
| 3rd Down, 1-3 To Go | 5 | 12 | 6 | 50.0 | 69 | 1 | 1 | 109.13 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| 3rd Down, 4-6 To Go | 3 | 5 | 5 | 100.0 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 162.16 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 3rd Down, 7-9 To Go | 6 | 11 | 6 | 54.5 | 47 | 1 | 1 | 102.26 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 3rd Down, 10+ To Go | 6 | 15 | 8 | 53.3 | 96 | 1 | 0 | 93.76 | 40 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 4th Down | 3 | 4 | 2 | 50.0 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 163.40 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
9 yards per pass attempt and 71% completion rate on 1st down...uhh...you're dearly screwed. Followed up by another 9 yards per pass attempt and 67% completion rate on 2nd down. Dear God. Those awful Beaver teams from the 60s/70s/80s are shuddering at those numbers.
Surprisingly Wazzu is pretty good in the red zone in terms of defending the pass...
| Own 20 To 1 Yd Ln (RZ) | 6 | 26 | 10 | 38.5 | 75 | 1 | 2 | 80.38 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
But that's probably because they're already in the end zone before they make the red zone.
| Opp 1 To 20 Yd Ln | 5 | 17 | 11 | 64.7 | 119 | 0 | 0 | 123.51 | 36 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Opp 21 To 39 Yd Ln | 6 | 46 | 41 | 89.1 | 650 | 1 | 2 | 217.82 | 73 | 23 | 12 | 7 |
| Opp 40 To Own 40 Yd Ln | 6 | 59 | 35 | 59.3 | 436 | 3 | 2 | 122.42 | 57 | 19 | 5 | 4 |
| Own 39 To 21 Yd Ln | 6 | 52 | 37 | 71.2 | 459 | 2 | 4 | 162.99 | 29 | 18 | 14 | 5 |
TwistNHook: Let's take a look at rush D here.
| Situation | G | Att | Yards | Avg. | TD | Long | 1st | 10+ | 20+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Plays | 6 | 220 | 1199 | 5.45 | 17 | 53 | 60 | 37 | 12 |
| 1st Half | 6 | 108 | 638 | 5.91 | 12 | 44 | 36 | 22 | 7 |
| 2nd Half/OT | 6 | 112 | 561 | 5.01 | 5 | 53 | 24 | 15 | 5 |
| 1st Quarter | 6 | 46 | 296 | 6.43 | 5 | 31 | 16 | 10 | 5 |
| 2nd Quarter | 6 | 62 | 342 | 5.52 | 7 | 44 | 20 | 12 | 2 |
| 3rd Quarter | 6 | 44 | 231 | 5.25 | 1 | 53 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| 4th Quarter | 6 | 68 | 330 | 4.85 | 4 | 39 | 15 | 11 | 3 |
Ya. I kind of feel sorry for these guys. I mean giving up 6.43 yards per carry in the 1st quarter? That's just rough. Their best numbers is 4.85 and that is in the 4th when ostensibly the opponent is running out the clock and the D can key in on the run. Even when everybody KNOWS the WSU opponent is going to just be running, they still can't stop them.
I mean think about that average. That means that if in the 4th quarter when the opponent is trying to run out the clock, if they were to run on every play, they would slowly, but surely march down the field and score a TD. They'd get roughly 9 yards on the first 2 plays and then covert on the 3rd and short. So, even when the opponents try to not succeed, THEY STILL SUCCEED.
Honestly, this is a team where we need to focus on 2 things:
1. Keeping all of our players healthy.
2. Ensuring proper execution in game time situations.
The first is, by far, the most important.
Avinash:
Oh my Lord.
| 1st Down | 6 | 108 | 558 | 5.17 | 10 | 53 | 15 | 17 | 4 |
| 2nd Down | 6 | 76 | 395 | 5.20 | 4 | 44 | 30 | 10 | 4 |
| 3rd Down | 6 | 29 | 178 | 6.14 | 1 | 31 | 10 | 8 | 2 |
| 3rd Down, 1-3 To Go | 5 | 15 | 94 | 6.27 | 0 | 30 | 8 | 5 | 1 |
| 3rd Down, 4-6 To Go | 4 | 5 | 10 | 2.00 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 3rd Down, 7-9 To Go | 4 | 5 | 56 | 11.20 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 3rd Down, 10+ To Go | 3 | 4 | 18 | 4.50 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 4th Down | 4 | 7 | 68 | 9.71 | 2 | 39 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
So basically you can run for 5 yards per attempt on 1st and 2nd down each and pick up the first down, or pass for 9 yards per attempt on 1st and 2nd down with about a 50% chance of completing both passes to get the first down, or do a little of both and still pick up the 1st down. And if you don't pick up the 1st down, you're still left with a lot of 2nd and short/3rd and really short situations. Wow. Poor Cougs.
Actually Washington State is pretty good in 3rd down conversion defense (35%, 36th in the country)!!! I think it's because everyone's so surprised the offense needed a 3rd down to get to first down that they don't know what to do! Of course it makes you wonder how horrible the converting the 1st down on 1st and 2nd down stats look like.
Cal should be up by double digits in the first quarter. If they don't, they clearly aren't taking this one too seriously. Wazzu's first string defense and offense, they just aren't good. If this is a two score game or less at halftime we should be seriously concerned about the future games coming up.