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Inside The Numbers: Miami

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Man, I stayed up late playing Super Smash Bros, quite possibly the greatest party game ever. We got in a HUGE argument over it, too. My strategy was to try to steer clear of as much of the fighting as possible until only 1 player remained and then, most likely, to lose to him or her.

I was often getting 2nd place with 0 kills. The existential question became what's more important, the place or the number of kills. My theory is that its all strategery and that the kills are ONLY important if two players tie. Other players vociferously felt that I was a [pansy] and needed to [perform physically impossible act with myself].

But, hey, 2nd place, looking pretty good, don't it? And that Luigi, pretty unstoppable in air. Jump and hold A. Jump and hold A.

So, let me bottom line you here. I'll bottom line you so hard you won't know what happened: I'm writing this all up after getting like only 7 hours of sleep. Bear with me if there are any mistakes. Damn, I just bottom lined the hell out of you!

And what do you think? Is Super Smash Bros about the journey or the end result? Place or kills?

Firstly, since many people haven't been following Miami all year long like we do our other opponents, here is their season schedule and results:

Game Results

Date Location Result
Nov 29, 2008 Raleigh, N.C. NC State 38, Miami (Fla.) 28 Box score
Nov 20, 2008 Atlanta, Ga. Georgia Tech 41, Miami (Fla.) 23
Nov 13, 2008 Miami Gardens, Fla. Miami (Fla.) 16, Virginia Tech 14 Box score
Nov 1, 2008 Charlottesville, Va. Miami (Fla.) 24, Virginia 17
Oct 25, 2008 Miami Gardens, Fla. Miami (Fla.) 16, Wake Forest 10 Box score
Oct 18, 2008 Durham, N.C. Miami (Fla.) 49, Duke 31 Box score
Oct 11, 2008 Miami Gardens, Fla. Miami (Fla.) 20, UCF 14 Box score
Oct 04, 2008 Miami Gardens, Fla. Florida State 41, Miami (Fla.) 39 Box score
Sep 27, 2008 Miami Gardens, Fla. North Carolina 28, Miami (Fla.) 24 Box score
Sep 20, 2008 College Station, TX Miami (Fla.) 41, Texas A&M 23 Box score
Sep 06, 2008 Gainesville, Fla. Florida 26, Miami (Fla.) 3 Box score
Aug 28, 2008 Miami Gardens, Fla. Miami (Fla.) 52, Charleston Southern 7 Box score

So, it looks like Miami started off a bit rocky with a huge winning streak in ACC play. But then they sort of faltered at the end there. They only gave up 26 to Florida (at Florida), which is sort of an achievement. Unfortunately, it does not appear that they faced Maryland, our only potential common opponent. Oh well. So, hopefully, we catch end of the season Miami and not middle of the season Miami.

Secondly, here are the stats. All stats are from here.

TEAM STATISTICS UM OPP
SCORING 335 290
Points Per Game 27.9 24.2
FIRST DOWNS 203 203
Rushing 84 100
Passing 108 80
Penalty 11 23
RUSHING YARDAGE 1561 1757
Yards gained rushing 1858 2209
Yards lost rushing 297 452
Rushing Attempts 394 463
Average Per Rush 4.0 3.8
Average Per Game 130.1 146.4
TDs Rushing 17 19
PASSING YARDAGE 2364 2032
Att-Comp-Int 370-212-19 315-162-4
Average Per Pass 6.4 6.5
Average Per Catch 11.2 12.5
Average Per Game 197.0 169.3
TDs Passing 20 14
TOTAL OFFENSE 3925 3789
Total Plays 764 778
Average Per Play 5.1 4.9
Average Per Game 327.1 315.8
KICK RETURNS: #-Yards 51-991 54-936
PUNT RETURNS: #-Yards 27-311 17-156
INT RETURNS: #-Yards 4-36 19-232
KICK RETURN AVERAGE 19.4 17.3
PUNT RETURN AVERAGE 11.5 9.2
INT RETURN AVERAGE 9.0 12.2
FUMBLES-LOST 10-4 29-10
PENALTIES-Yards 71-575 61-527
Average Per Game 47.9 43.9
PUNTS-Yards 63-2522 67-2554
Average Per Punt 40.0 38.1
Net punt average 36.9 31.4
TIME OF POSSESSION/Game 29:05 30:50
3RD-DOWN Conversions 57/170 64/171
3rd-Down Pct 34% 37%
4TH-DOWN Conversions 11/17 7/19
4th-Down Pct 65% 37%
SACKS BY-Yards 31-239 25-174
MISC YARDS 0 0
TOUCHDOWNS SCORED 40 36
FIELD GOALS-ATTEMPTS 17-19 12-18
ON-SIDE KICKS 1-3 0-2
RED-ZONE SCORES 41-44 93% 37-39 95%
RED-ZONE TOUCHDOWNS 27-44 61% 28-39 72%
PAT-ATTEMPTS 38-38 100% 34-34 100%
ATTENDANCE 277792 365981
Games/Avg Per Game 6/46299 6/60997
Neutral Site Games 0/0

Here, we have the team stats. Their offense does not seem to be wildly better than their defense. Only scoring 3 more points per game. Getting out rushed, but getting more passing yards. Albeit, only by about 30 passing yards more per game. They are only averaging .2 yards per play than they give up. So, while this is a very successful team, they are not dominantly so. Which would explain why they are in the Emerald Bowl.

Note: They actually average less per catch than their opponents.

RUSHING GP Att Gain Loss Net Avg TD Long Avg/G
Graig Cooper 12 159 824 46 778 4.9 4 51 64.8
Javarris James 8 62 289 6 283 4.6 4 13 35.4
Robert Marve 11 59 236 117 119 2.0 2 43 10.8
Derron Thomas 9 31 130 19 111 3.6 1 34 12.3
Jacory Harris 12 40 198 90 108 2.7 2 30 9.0

Graig (not Craig) Cooper is their main back with Javarris James spelling him. Both appear to be very solid backs. Both are listed at about 200+ lbs. Both average almost 5 yards a carry.

Note that the 3rd listed back is Robert Marve. He is actually one of their QBs. He appears to be a bit of a running threat, rushing 59 times for 236 yards. Albeit for only a 2 yard per play and 10 yard per game average. But he is suspended for this game. The other QB, Harris, doesn't appear to rush as much. So, that takes that threat away from the Miami team.

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Graig Cooper via grfx.cstv.com

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Javarris James via grfx.cstv.com

PASSING GP Effic Cmp-Att-Int Pct Yards TD Long Avg/G
Robert Marve 11 107.2 116-213-13 54.5 1293 9 69 117.5
Jacory Harris 12 129.5 93-153-6 60.8 1001 10 35 83.4

Well, here are the afore-mentioned QBs. Marve actually appears to have the worse stats, even though he has thrown more. Worse efficiency, worse percentage, fewer TDs in about 60 more attempts. So, we'll be facing only Harris this game. His efficiency is not great. His completion is not great. I predict we'll see a LOT of running. Especially if it rains during the game.

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Robert Marve via grfx.cstv.com

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Jacory Harris via grfx.cstv.com

RECEIVING GP No. Yards Avg TD Long Avg/G
Aldarius Johnson 11 30 321 10.7 3 29 29.2
Thearon Collier 11 25 318 12.7 1 43 28.9
Graig Cooper 12 24 102 4.2 1 11 8.5
Dedrick Epps 12 22 304 13.8 2 69 25.3
Kayne Farquharson 11 18 280 15.6 3 37 25.5
Laron Byrd 12 18 184 10.2 3 26 15.3
Travis Benjamin 11 16 276 17.2 3 51 25.1

They sure do spread the ball around. Nobody with over 30 receptions? Nobody with more than 30 yards a game? I bet even Cal has better stats than that and our WRs were sub-par this year. When you have a situation like this, it's near impossible to predict who will be the WR to focus on. Johnson has the most receptions here, but only 30. Farquharson has the highest average, but only on 18 receptions. Then again, the more passing oriented QB is the one who will be playing. So, maybe they will focus on passing more.

But these numbers speak to the perhaps run heavy focus of their offense. And their egalitarian method of choosing WR receptions.

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Thearon Collier via grfx.cstv.com

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Aldarius Johnson via grfx.cstv.com

Fudge, the D table screws it all up. So, I had to (attempt to) take it out. Oh well. It deleted all my writing too. Great. Ugh. Anyway, long story short, D doesnt look too fearsome. Not a lot of sacks or TFLs. Final Thoughts: They'll prolly run a lot, plays to our strengths. Hopefully, we can control the line of scrimmage and win this similar to the Oregon game.