30%
25%
35%
26%
56%
Those are the Stanford three point shooting percentages the last five games, and provide us with part of the explanation for why California left Maples Pavilion with a loss on Saturday afternoon. Here's another part of the explanation:
1-4
That's the number of ESPN Top 100 basketball recruits Cal and Stanford have secured, respectively, in the last three years. Breaking down recruiting is more complicated than just raw numbers, but in the second half this afternoon it told a big part of the tale. Freshmen Michael Humphrey and Reid Travis are raw. They've had up and down seasons. But they possess high end size, strength and ceilings -- and in the absence of Roscoe Allen they filled in nicely against a depleted and overmatched Cal lineup.
After shooting 36% in the first half and trailing by a dozen at the half, the Golden Bears put together a solid second stanza on the offensive end, but time and again Stanford's freshmen forwards, along with senior guard Chasson Randle, overwhelmed the Bears on the other end, and it was never really a contest down the stretch. Over and over again the Cardinal front line held off Bear runs with easy post-ups and (most frustratingly) physical offensive rebounds. Final score: Stanford 72 - Cal 61.
The game opened with Cal making a concerted effort to help and double in the paint. Stanford kicked the ball repeatedly to outside shooters, which going into the game one would have said was a win for Cal. Instead, it turned into a big problem. The Cardinal hit their first four from deep, one by Randle, one by Marcus Allen, and two by Anthony Brown. And thus began what would be 40 minutes of tough matchups for the Bears. Go small, stay at home, and close out shooters, or go big, help, and shut down the paint? If the opponent is executing and making shots, it's poison either way.
Thus, what began as an outside shooting display turned into an almost comical spectacle of Cal trying to guard the post. Dwight Tarwater (listed as 6-6, but that's an exaggeration) was overmatched the whole game, and at one point 6-4 Sam Singer was attempting to front 6-9 Humphreys in a lineup experiment that lasted all of two possessions.
Meanwhile, on the offensive end, David Kravish finally showed up big for the Bears, displaying an array of post moves, including a jump hook with both hands instead of the step back fade he has been favoring for most of the year. His 23 points were a career high, to go with 12 rebounds. Unfortunately, Cal could get little help from its backcourt. Tyrone Wallace's 4-14 day, with 0-3 from deep and 3-7 from the line was actually superior to Jabari Bird's 4-12, 0-3, 0-3. Jordan Mathews, clearly still not healthy, came off the bench for a tough 1-4 from the field and 7 points.
As Cal heads into the spring signing period, and we think about the future of this program, the need is readily apparent. This team will not be able to compete at a high level without immediate frontcourt help. David Kravish is graduating. Kingsley Okoroh has a high ceiling, but is probably a couple seasons away from being a complete offensive threat. Kameron Rooks is coming off a major injury, and may or may not have Pac-12 starter talent. Christian Behrens is overmatched. Already, even with Kravish still here, Cal gets attacked repeatedly in the post by superior bigs. If you care about the future of this program, and you aren't interested in the Ivan Rabb watch, you might want to think about getting interested. Without frontcourt talent and depth, the Bears will continue to be exploited by bigger, stronger, quicker, deeper front lines. However, add the best high school forward to the mix, and the whole complexion of the game would change. Raise your hand if you want to see Rabb stuff basketballs back into Michael Humphrey's face next year.
I have seen Ivan Rabb in person, and he makes the high school version of Leon Powe look slow and lethargic by comparison. Even one year with that kind of frontcourt impact would be a program changer. Are you listening, Ivan? The sturdy Golden Bear is watching from the sky, and he needs you. Come fulfill your destiny, and help build something special.
I think Cal students are excited at the prospect of Ivan Rabb.... pic.twitter.com/V4VnAHvKdj
— Glenn Borok (@GlennBorok) January 25, 2015