Here's this week's Top 25:
California Golden Blogs Top 25 - Week 4
Rank | Team | Delta |
---|---|---|
1 | Oregon Ducks | -- |
2 | Texas A&M Aggies | -- |
3 | Florida State Seminoles | 3 |
T-4 | LSU Tigers | 1 |
T-4 | Oklahoma Sooners | 5 |
6 | Baylor Bears | 4 |
7 | Auburn Tigers | 1 |
8 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 1 |
9 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 4 |
10 | Mississippi Rebels | 4 |
11 | BYU Cougars | 1 |
12 | Arizona State Sun Devils | 4 |
13 | Missouri Tigers | 10 |
14 | Georgia Bulldogs | 10 |
15 | UCLA Bruins | 3 |
T-16 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 4 |
T-16 | Duke Blue Devils | 7 |
18 | Michigan State Spartans | 1 |
19 | South Carolina Gamecocks | NEW |
20 | Stanford Cardinal | 1 |
21 | Wisconsin Badgers | 1 |
22 | Kansas State Wildcats | NEW |
23 | Cincinnati Bearcats | NEW |
24 | Washington Huskies | NEW |
25 | USC Trojans | 22 |
Teams dropped from last week's Top 25: Virginia Tech Hokies, Louisville Cardinals, North Carolina Tar Heels, Clemson Tigers Others receiving votes: Nebraska Cornhuskers, Arizona Wildcats, North Carolina Tar Heels, Northern Illinois Huskies, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Marshall Thundering Herd, California Golden Bears, Clemson Tigers, Pittsburgh Panthers, TCU Horned Frogs |
USC: LOLOLOL
Louisville: Virginia might just be improved, or the Cardinals might just be worse than we thought this year.
Virginia Tech: Remember how I made a point of not overrating their win against Ohio State? Now, East Carolina might well be a decent team, and Pirates OC Lincoln Riley is a rising star coach, but yeah. I think the Hokies are probably a fringe top-25 team at best.
Tennessee: Clearly not ready for primetime against Oklahoma. I still think I believe in their young talent, but they've got more to prove.
Nick Kranz: Considered: A ton of undefeated power 5 teams without a truly impressive win.
So. Georgia/South Carolina and USC/Boston College makes this week much more difficult, doesn't it? South Carolina looked pretty, pretty bad in week one, but all of a sudden they have two of the better wins in the nation. Where do you put a team like that?
I'm not sure what to do with Oklahoma State, Stanford, Wisconsin and Michigan State. I strongly suspect that all four teams are top 25 teams in terms of talent and future performance, and I don't want to unduly punish either team for having the courage to schedule tough non-conference teams (Or, in Stanford's case, playing USC early). On the other hand, they don't have a resume that should earn them a top 25 spot either. When the alternate is to hand a spot in the poll to teams that have beaten up on mid-major conferences and FCS teams, I'll err on the side of rewarding strong schedules.
Pitt enters the poll because they are undefeated with a win over a suddenly decent looking Boston College. Penn State, TCU, Washington and Duke all sneak in to the back end for convincing wins over power conference teams, weak though those power conference teams may be.
There's still more subjectivity in this poll than I'd prefer, but there's no way around that after three weeks. Hopefully things will look clearer by Week 6 or so.
Berkelium97: I was disappointed by several teams in my ballot from last week: BYU, USC, Cincy, Louisville. I reluctantly include a few of them in my ballot because I can't think of anyone else to round out the tail end. Needless to say, I do not have strong feelings about my ballot this week. Maybe next week...
Without Taylor Kelly for at least two weeks, ASU drops out of my ballot. Giving up 545 yards to Colorado further solidifies my decision.
I don't know how anyone who has watched UCLA play in over the past three weeks can rank them in the top-15. They turned in their third unimpressive performance in a row and barely beat a Texas game whose dominant first game is looking more and more like a fluke.
A couple perennial non-BCS powerhouses return to my ballot this week: Northern Illinois and Marshall. NIU's offense hasn't slowed down despite replacing QB Jordan Lynch while Marshall's running game continues to stampede everyone in its path. The latter's Thundering Herd name seems especially appropriate this year.
FiatLux: All I'm looking at is 3-0 teams right now, with one of those wins a good win go to the top. If they have road wins they go ahead of teams without road wins which is why I have ASU so high and in particular I am not going to penalize a team like ASU for beating Colorado by 2 TDs on the road. Nor will I judge teams based on injuries. I'm concerned about their record. I'm sticking with my resume approach. So that means if one team has three wins this year and another team has 2 wins, I'm going to rank the team with 3 wins higher (all the usual caveats of FBS > FCS, Power 5 conf > not, road win > home win etc.). So no, FSU is not in the top 5 for me. But the number of games played evens but obviously so don't stress about that. Like I said the list is very fluid first few weeks. Now to be honest, like others I had trouble once I got below the first dozen or so... they just sort of all morph together to me.
I can understand Atoms not ranking Penn State, but they've won their games, so that get that from me. I disagree with Berkelium not ranking ASU at all. They're 3-0 and have won 2 away games, for which I think they should get credit. I begrudgingly returned South Carolina to the Top 25 - honestly I'm not positive I should have - but I slammed Georgia. For what it's worth I also slammed USC for their loss to BC. I also went ahead and put Duke in because they do have 3 wins, but that is about as unimpressive a schedule as you could have and no way I'd have them where Atoms does. I think you guys are being way too hard on UCLA (and it pains me to say that). They've won two away games. Those are hard. And they're 3-0.
Nick, question - how does South Carolina have two of the better wins in the nation? They (A) beat Georgia, who we don't know if they are good or not since they're now 1-1 and (B) beat ECU - who beat VaTech, who is no longer ranked. To counter that I would say that South Carolina has the worst loss in the nation, getting blown out by Texas A&M at home to a QB making his first start. I think you're buying into the SEC bias there because if NO teams were ranked for the first couple of weeks then ... We'll see.
Atoms, Duke at 11? Above ASU who has played and won 2 road games? I'll have some of what you're having.
Berkelium, I just don't see how you cannot rank UCLA at all (let alone not highly). They have two road wins. Yes, against not great teams but still against Power 5 teams... road wins. And they're 3-0. If you don't have them top 10 OK, but to not have them ranked at all is just not fair, imho.
Nick Kranz: I think South Carolina has two of the better wins in the nation because they have beaten two teams who have themselves beaten major conference opponents, and that's something very few teams can say right now. Most teams in the country have, at best, one win over a major conference team. Victory chains are hardly infallible, but USC>Georgia>Clemson and USC>ECU>Virginia Tech>Ohio State are all pretty impressive compared to the most barren resumes of other teams.
And quite honestly, I DO buy into the SEC bias. The SEC, so far, has a collective non-conference performance markedly better than every other conference in the country, both in terms of winning percentage, margin of victory, and the eye test. It pains me to say it, but the SEC is the best conference in football.
Berkelium97: I'm more critical of teams I have watched repeatedly because I have more evidence on which to base my rankings. This has hurt certain teams (UCLA, ASU, Arizona) but helped others (Oregon, Georgia, South Carolina). I've watched several Pac-12 teams and been, obviously, disappointed by some of those teams.
I had really high expectations for UCLA this season and perhaps I'm overreacting to their struggles. I don't understand them as a top-15 team. We're all grasping at straws for the late teens and 20s and I can understand why they would fit in there, even though I choose not to include them. But I have several reasons to be very concerned about UCLA. Their offensive line looks like one of the worst in the conference: Hundley seems like he's under pressure on nearly every play and the team has surrendered an incredible 31 tackles for loss so far this season (on average, 1 every 7.71 plays). By comparison, Cal's much maligned (fairly or unfairly) O-line last season gave up 91 tackles for loss last year (1 every 11.49 plays). UCLA has also been the most penalized team in the nation since Mora took over. I cannot see how the Bruins will be successful if they move the offense backwards so consistently. Hundley is a good QB, but he cannot overcome these abysmal negative yardage numbers. The UCLA defense only seems to play well one quarter per game, so I don't expect that unit to bail out the offense. I'm sure UCLA can be a great team this year, but they certainly haven't looked like it.
atomsareenough: Re: South Carolina... Well, fiat, I'll say this. A week ago, we had Georgia as the #4 team in the country (you had them at #7, yourself), and now you're saying "Well they're 1-1 so we don't know if they're very good." Yes, it's early enough that a lot can change quickly - for example, I had USC at #7 last week and now they're not in my poll because they looked awful against a not-very-good BC team that ran totally roughshod over them, but Georgia didn't look bad against the Gamecocks, they just lost a tough, close game against a Power 5 conference rival on the road. If we thought they were good last week, there's still reason enough to continue to think they're pretty good. I presume that's why the Bulldogs are still on your ballot this week. So, I think at this point it's fair to give South Carolina credit for a good win. I think the East Carolina win also looks better this week given their win over Va Tech in Blacksburg, and there's reason to think the Pirates are pretty decent. Also, their one loss to the Aggies, as bad as it was, is against a team everyone has in their top 6 right now.
As for Duke and ASU, well... I'm not starting completely from scratch every week because I want some modicum of consistency. Each week is an additional data point though so I move teams up and down and look for new teams accordingly. I had Duke at #19 last week and ASU at #10. Some of the teams in the middle were on byes this week, so I tried not to move them around too much, and some other ranked teams underperformed and were moved down/out (USC, BYU, Georgia, Louisville). I think Kansas and Colorado are similarly awful Power 5 teams, and Duke dominated Kansas while ASU let Colorado score a bunch of points, so the Blue Devils got moved up and the Sun Devils dropped a little. I probably could have credited Duke less, but they were a beneficiary of me moving Stanford up and adding UCLA, and not wanting to move teams like K-State and North Carolina (who were on byes) around too much.
atomsareenough: Since this is a pretty slow week, it seems like a good time to talk playoffs. While obviously it's a long way off, and there's no way to reasonably narrow down the top undefeated teams to just 4 at this point, which teams do you guys generally think are the best contenders for the playoff, and which do you think have major obstacles?
For now, you can mark me down for: Texas A&M, Oregon, Florida State and Oklahoma. It will be interesting to see just how wrong that is in a few weeks.
Berkelium97: My current four playoff teams are (in order) Oregon, Florida State, Texas A&M, and Baylor. I keep the Big Ten out of the playoff because I currently expect Michigan State to win and MSU has already lost to Oregon, so there's no sense in having a potential rematch.
The SEC team is particularly tough to predict. My first thought was to include Auburn, but the Tigers' conference schedule is brutal and features 6 teams in the AP top-15. Texas A&M, Alabama, and LSU all have to play 4 top-10 teams in conference play; two at home and two on the road. Although Georgia and South Carolina have rather simple paths to the SEC Championship Game, I can't see the SEC East winning this year. Right now, I'd pick Texas A&M to win the SEC, but I would not be surprised if 'Bama, LSU, or even Auburn wins. Whoever survives the gauntlet will have earned a playoff spot.
I almost kept the Big 12 out of the playoff and included the SEC East runner-up. If Baylor and Oklahoma each lose, however, I'll replace them with the SEC East runner up. Florida State can ride the momentum of last year's title through a weak ACC and into the playoff. And, of course, Pac-12 favorite Oregon should be included.
FiatLux: I don't really want to try predicting who should play in the playoffs at the end of the year. It's just too early and a totally futile exercise, and I think in doing so it makes us create our own bias which will bias how we do our own rankings. There will be time enough for that in a few weeks, imho.
But ugh, since you asked, I'll do it just to do it (without caring a lick about it!):
Alabama
Oregon
Oklahoma
BYU
atomsareenough: I think it's funny that everyone responded with a list of 4 teams. I wasn't trying to ask for anyone to predict specifically which exact 4 teams are going to make it. That's a fool's errand at this point. Which is of course why you see that type of thing hyped on ESPN all the time. I was hoping to keep the conversation more broad. At this point, I think the Oregon is the best team in the country, and if they win out, which they likely will, they should be in the playoff. Now that USC and Stanford have lost, UCLA has looked mediocre, and ASU is without Taylor Kelly, I think the Ducks are the best hope for the Pac-12 to send a representative. I think the Big Ten will likely get shut out, because they've been awful and their best team has already lost to Oregon and their second best team has lost to LSU. I think whoever wins the Oklahoma-Baylor matchup, should they go undefeated, will merit a playoff spot out of the Big 12. Florida State will probably go undefeated and grab a spot for the ACC. The SEC has a few serious contenders, and they are Texas A&M, LSU, Alabama, and Auburn. The likeliest scenario to me seems that each of the four non-Big Ten conference champs will get into the playoff, but if one of those conference champs has 2+ losses, they could get supplanted by a second SEC team.
Other odds and ends from this week:
- Oregon was a unanimous #1, receiving 100 out of a possible 100 points from our voters
- Berkelium mentioned his skepticism of Arizona State and UCLA, and he's the only one who didn't rank either of them.
- I'm the only one who didn't rank Penn State. I don't think a needing to score 10 points in the 4th quarter to come from behind and beat Rutgers is all that impressive, and neither is the fact that they scored about half as many points against the Scarlet Knights as the Howard Bison did. Mizzou's beatdown of UCF also devalues that win a bit for me.
- FiatLux is the only one who didn't rank Michigan State.
- All the schools in the 22-25 range were only on 2 ballots each, so there's some pretty widespread disagreement about those teams, especially Washington, whom FiatLux put all the way up at #11.
- In retrospect, Georgia's loss to South Carolina probably should have knocked Clemson off my ballot, but I missed it because the Tigers were on a bye this week.