After two days of action, the Bears find themselves in 2nd place behind Michigan with a sizable gap (two extra A Finalists in an event).
Tom Shields did capture his 3rd career 100 Fly title. Does the Bears have more individual (or relay) NCAA Championships in them, if not the team title?
Live stats: Update
Live Video (Prelims and Day One Final): Indiana Sports Corp
Live Video (Day two and day three finals): ESPN3
Prelims start at 8 AM PT, Finals start at 4 PM PT
Day 1 + Preview can be found here
Day 2 can be found here
After 14 events at the end of Day 2
Day 3 Schedule of Events:
#15 Men 1650 Free
#16 Men 200 Back
#17 Men 100 Free
#18 Men 200 Breast
#19 Men 200 Fly
#20 Men Platform Diving
#21 Men 400 Free Relay
200 Fly might is going to be the last and best chance for the Bears to make a move, with both Shields and Will Hamilton (last year's winner) among the best in this category. Collegeswimming.com has the following to say about this:
200 Butterfly: Cal’s Will Hamilton (1:42.75) surprised his more heralded teammate Tom Shields (1:41.23) for the win a season ago. The two are both back and ranked among the top five. But it’s neither one of them that enters as the fastest seed. That honor goes to Michigan freshman Dylan Bosch (1:41.18). The biggest threats to these three come in the form of a trio of Florida Gators: last year’s bronze medalist Marcin Cieslak (1:42.17), Sebastien Rousseau (1:42.18) and Cameron Martin (1:43.04).
The Pick: Tom Shields, California. This is the one race that Shields hasn’t won of the three he usually contests. With this being the final individual race of his collegiate career, don’t think he isn’t mindful of that. (Last year’s pick: Tom Shields, California; Will Hamilton, California)
The thoughts of SwimSwam's main recap guy is apparently that
Cal do have advantage in 200 breast, 200 fly, 200 back, while Michigan have the advantage in 1650 free and 100 free, with Michigan's edge on 100 Free being quite small.
Michigan's edge on the mile (1650 free) is pretty significant, however. They can easily add another 20-30 points in that event which would mean a 50-60 point cushion that would be very hard to take down. Bears' best case scenario is probably about 15 points each in those 3 200 events.
This is all assuming that Cal will continue to outperform the psych sheet, which was the recipe to victory for the last couple of years.
Full list of Cal Entries in the 2013 NCAA Championship:
50 Freestyle: Shayne Fleming (19.56), Seth Stubblefield (19.64)
100 Freestyle: Seth Stubblefield (43.34), Trent Williams (44.11)
200 Freestyle: Trent Williams (1:34.60), Will Hamilton (1:35.61), Seth Stubblefield (1:37.04), Jeremy Bagshaw (1:37.35)
500 Freestyle: Adam Hinshaw(4:18.08), Jeremy Bagshaw(4:18.65),Will Hamilton (4:19.00),Trent Williams(4:20.95)
1650 Freestyle: Adam Hinshaw(15:05.96),Jeremy Bagshaw(15:15.49)
100 Butterfly: Tom Shields (44.92), Marcin Tarczynski (45.97), Austin Brown (46.94), Tony Cox (47.49)
200 Butterfly: Tom Shields (1:41.23),Will Hamilton (1:42.75),Austin Brown (1:44.74), Ben Hinshaw(1:45.27)
100 Backstroke: Tony Cox (46.06),Jacob Pebley (46.51)
200 Backstroke: Jacob Pebley (1:40.45), Marcin Tarczynski(1:43.22)
100 Breaststroke: Trevor Hoyt(52.65), Ryan Studebaker (53.21), Christian Higgins (53.38)
200 Breaststroke: Josh Prenot(1:53.63), Trevor Hoyt(1:53.76), Christian Higgins (1:55.14), Ryan Studebaker (1:55.56)
200 IM: Marcin Tarczynski(1:43.10),Josh Prenot (1:43.73),Ben Hinshaw (1:44.79)
400 IM: Josh Prenot(3:41.36), Adam Hinshaw(3:44.36),Ben Hinshaw(3:48.05)
Relays: 200 Free (1:17.76, Fleming, Fabio Gimondi, Nick Dillinger, Stubblefield), 400 Free (2:54.41,Gimondi, Stubblefield, Dillinger, Shields), 800 Free (6:20.20, Williams, Shields, TBD, Hamilton), 200 Medley (1:24.42, Cox, Hoyt, Shields, Fleming), 400 Medley (3:06.09, Pebley, Hoyt, Shields, Stubblefield)
This is the same as for the women's:
The team scoring breakdown are the following, for each individual events, a team score points by the final standing of the events. For most event, the finish in the morning's trial determines who makes it to the two finals of the evening. The A Final ("Championship Final") guarantee a swimmer at least a 8th place finish while the B Final ("Consolation Final") determines places 9th-16th. Even if a swimmer from the B Final has a faster time than a swimmer in the A Final, the best the B Finalist can do is still 9th place.
Here is the official statement from the rulebook (this link I found is from 2010):
All events will be scored. Scoring shall be for 16 places as follows: relays, 40-34-32-
30-28-26-24-22-18-14-12-10-8-6-4-2; individual events, 20-17-16-15-14-13-12-11-9-
7-6-5-4-3-2-1. Except in time final events, points for first through eighth place shall be
awarded solely on the basis of a championship final. Points for ninth through 16th place
shall be awarded solely on the basis of a consolation final
So the point breakdown is basically one point per place for the individual events, with the exception for the winner who gets two extra bonus point for winning an event (so 3 points more than the 2nd place). The winner of the consolation event gets one extra bonus point as well. Again, relays are basically events where the points are doubled.
By the time that the championship finalists are determined, you can pretty much see which events Cal would be picking up points on the opponents and which events where we would have to hold our breath.
Other Cal Swimming and Diving News:
Collegeswimming.com claims that the Bears are thinking about some facility upgrade (perhaps not a surprise although when this would happen is debatable).
Cal is one of only three NCAA institutions to provide participation opportunities in both men's and women's swimming & diving and men's and women's water polo. Together, they account for approximately 120 student-athletes annually. The four teams have combined for 20 national championships and 90 Olympic medals, and each program was well represented last summer in London when they amassed 13 of Cal's total of 17 medals at the 2012 Games. In history, the men's water polo team has won 13 NCAA team titles, women's swimming has captured three of the past five national crowns, and men's swimming will be aiming for its third consecutive NCAA championship this weekend.
Despite the overwhelming success of these programs, they are constrained by a lack of capacity for both training and competition, both in terms of times available for practice and competition and the amount of water space. In addition to serving as Cal's home training and competition pool for the past 30 years, current Spieker Aquatics Complex is used on a daily basis by hundreds of recreational, community and master's swimmers, physical education students and a number of postgraduate swimmers, such as Olympic medalists Natalie Coughlin and Nathan Adrian, who continue to train with their Cal coaches.
Some thoughts on Day 3
Some of the Bears' top seeds are scheduled for day 3 events: in 200 Fly (Shields and Hamilton), 200 Breast (Hoyt), 200 Back (Pebley). More than these guys doing better than their Michigan counterparts, the Bears need more swimmers making it to the A and B Finals and score some points. Senior Tom Shields valiantly swam in 4 final events on Friday (winning one and coming up a very close 2nd in an another), the Bears need that kind of performances from more swimmers to make this thing interesting. It is not going to be easy, but if anyone can pull this off, it would be two-time defending champion Bears.