Day 1 Recap:
Your team standings after Day 1:
1. Michigan 153
2. California 123.5
Bears did not win any NCAA Championship today but most of Cal star, Tom Shields's events are coming up.
No. 2 Cal Bears, fresh off breaking Stanfurd's 31 consecutive Pac-# Title, are back at it again, trying to win another NCAA Championship. Unlike last week when there was not video (as far as I know) available for all the non-ESPN televised events, there are links to the prelims and day one action.
Live stats: Update
Live Video (Prelims and Day One Final): Indiana Sports Corp
Live Video (Day two and day three finals): ESPN3
Prelims start at 8 AM PT, Finals start at 4 PM PT
The NCAA.com article sure has Cal as the favorite in the meet. Senior Tom Shields, swimmer of the meet last year, will sure lead the way. (Emphasis are mine)
Day One List of Events:
Full list of Cal Entries in the 2013 NCAA Championship:
50 Freestyle: Shayne Fleming (19.56), Seth Stubblefield (19.64)
100 Freestyle: Seth Stubblefield (43.34), Trent Williams (44.11)
200 Freestyle: Trent Williams (1:34.60), Will Hamilton (1:35.61), Seth Stubblefield (1:37.04), Jeremy Bagshaw (1:37.35)
500 Freestyle: Adam Hinshaw(4:18.08), Jeremy Bagshaw(4:18.65),Will Hamilton (4:19.00),Trent Williams(4:20.95)
1650 Freestyle: Adam Hinshaw(15:05.96),Jeremy Bagshaw(15:15.49)
100 Butterfly: Tom Shields (44.92), Marcin Tarczynski (45.97), Austin Brown (46.94), Tony Cox (47.49)
200 Butterfly: Tom Shields (1:41.23),Will Hamilton (1:42.75),Austin Brown (1:44.74), Ben Hinshaw(1:45.27)
100 Backstroke: Tony Cox (46.06),Jacob Pebley (46.51)
200 Backstroke: Jacob Pebley (1:40.45), Marcin Tarczynski(1:43.22)
100 Breaststroke: Trevor Hoyt(52.65), Ryan Studebaker (53.21), Christian Higgins (53.38)
200 Breaststroke: Josh Prenot(1:53.63), Trevor Hoyt(1:53.76), Christian Higgins (1:55.14), Ryan Studebaker (1:55.56)
200 IM: Marcin Tarczynski(1:43.10),Josh Prenot (1:43.73),Ben Hinshaw (1:44.79)
400 IM: Josh Prenot(3:41.36), Adam Hinshaw(3:44.36),Ben Hinshaw(3:48.05)
Relays: 200 Free (1:17.76, Fleming, Fabio Gimondi, Nick Dillinger, Stubblefield), 400 Free (2:54.41,Gimondi, Stubblefield, Dillinger, Shields), 800 Free (6:20.20, Williams, Shields, TBD, Hamilton), 200 Medley (1:24.42, Cox, Hoyt, Shields, Fleming), 400 Medley (3:06.09, Pebley, Hoyt, Shields, Stubblefield)
This is the same as for the women's:
Cal Full Press Release:
Break that down into more comprehensible numbers, though. If Michigan finishes exactly on seed, Cal has to make up approximately 11.7 points per event according to seed. Another way to look at it is Cal has to be 70 points closer, per day, than seeded to Michigan.
So Cal would need to defy the odds again to win the team title. Maybe the Bears have been hibernating until now (in terms of their best possible time).
Here are their preview for the top 3 teams:
1. Michigan Wolverines (Seeded Points: 510) - The Wolverine relays need to show up; they're not fighting just Cal, they're fighting some stiff challenges from the teams that will finish in the 4-8 range as a team. Dylan Bosch needs to score somewhere high; maybe not even as high as his crazy-good seeds. Just somewhere high. The Wolverines are on the high-end of a few ranges that see only a few tenths to slide many spots in either direction. The pressure is on them: they have a lot further to go down than they do to go up.
2. Cal Golden Bears (Seeded Points: 290) - For Cal to make up the ground and take the points, they need the guys who didn't score at NCAA's last year to do damage: Josh Prenot needs to score in three events, for example. They need to pick Michigan off in key events, like the 200 breaststroke where Josh Prenot and Trevor Hoyt are seeded just behind Michigan's Richard Funk. Even that might not be enough. A lot of the difference between "seeded points" and "needed points" for Cal will have to be in the relays, and without Tyler Messerschmidt they're down four vital swims out of the 20 they need to shift and shimy around to make the relays work.
3. Stanford Cardinal (Seeded Points: 183) - Stanford is the only team of these top five who will have any diving points coming at NCAA's. That's because they have qualified more divers (4) than any other team in the country for the meet except Indiana (who also has 4).
Now, nobody is pretending that four qualifiers will turn into 12 scores. Kristian Ipsen should be good for 50 points himself (remember that last year, when he was 10th on the platform, he dove conservatively to avoid injury prior to the Olympic Trials). If the other three guys combined can muster up another 20 combined the Cardinal will be happy. Beyond that, Stanford didn't look nearly as rested at Pac-12′s as they have in the past. Aaron Wayne missed the A-Final at that meet in the 50 free, and he should be in the top 8 at NCAA's. This Stanford roster continues to be one that has more depth than you realize until you start counting scorers. Their relays average seeds between 7th and 8th - that will be a key for the upward mobility of Stanford.
More Day 1 Previews:
Top 8 Picks for each race, plus seed times:
1. Marcin Tarczynski, Cal, 1:43.10
2. David Nolan, Stanford, 1:42.41
3. Cody Miller, Indiana, 1:41.85
4. Marcin Cieslak, Florida, 1:44.01
5. Kyle Whitaker, Michigan, 1:42.61
6. Austin Surhoff, Texas, 1:43.59
7. Chase Kalisz, Georgia, 1:43.04
8. Kyle Owens, Auburn, 1:43.45
Darkhorse: Nejc Zupan, Dartmouth, 1:43.94 – Zupan was a star at the Ivy League Championship meet, and crushed conference records in both IM races. Here, he’s dropped the 400 IM in favor of the 100 breaststroke, but will still be swimming this 200. He, like Fink, Kalisz, and Miller, is an outstanding breaststroker.
1. Michael Weiss, Wisconsin, 3:39.17
2. Kyle Whitaker, Michigan, 3:40.94
3. Chase Kalisz, Georgia, 3:39.82
4. Sebastien Rousseau, Florida, 3:41.69
5. Adam Hinshaw, Cal, 3:44.74
6. Eduardo Solaeche-Gomez, Florida, 3:45.68
7. Josh Prenot, Cal, 3:41.36
8. Sam Trahin, Indiana, 3:42.75
Darkhorse: Couldn’t find one that I really liked that I thought would qualify as a true "darkhorse," so I punted on this one.