Are the Bears in? Are they out? Where will they end up if they're in? Projections please!

LEastCoastBears: I would like to believe that the Bears are in for sure, but they are getting awfully close to the play-in game in Dayton again. If my theory that the Bears only play well as the underdog is true, we probably don't want to play in Dayton just because we will likely be the favored team there. Lunardi dropped us to the next 4 in spot after the Utah loss (with 6 teams between us and the cutoff).

Norcalnick: I'm nervous. Very nervous. When your team finishes 20-11, you essentially have to be.

This is where I'd like to talk about how weird Cal has been this year, now that I have a chance to look at it. UCLA, Oregon, Arizona and Colorado will all likely be dancing. The Bears went a combined 5-2 against those teams despite playing them more frequently on the road than at home. Against the rest of the Pac-12? Just 7-5. Weird.

The Utah loss is more damaging than a garden-variety loss would be for some teams, becase it immediately ranks as Cal's worst loss of the year. It saps Cal's argument that the Bears are a completely different team than the squad that struggled so much in January.

When I look at the various projections and the resumes of other bubble teams I'm inclined to believe that Cal will have their name called on Sunday. Let's hope that when it happens, another trip to Dayton isn't the result.

Kodiak: No idea.

Ohio Bear: >After the loss on Thursday, the doomsayer in me assumed we were on the bubble. Thoughts of "last four in" (ewww, Dayton) and "first four out" danced in my head. But as of Saturday, we were still in Joe Lunardi's bracketology field as an 11 seed and in Jerry Palm's projection as a 10 seed. I respect the accuracy of these two guys -- so could it be that we're actually safe? I'm still on edge, but somewhat relieved that we seem to be not as much on the bubble as I feared we were after the Utah loss.