FanPost

Pac-12 Men's BB Championship Race

Arizona has to be considered the favorite to win the conference regular season from here, but Cal, Oregon and UCLA still have a shot at the title.

10-4 Arizona

10-4 Oregon

9-4 UCLA

9-5 Cal

9-5 Arizona St.

8-6 Colorado

7-6 USC

7-7 Furd

Sagarin's Predictor is his most accurate measure of team strength for predicting the outcome of games. He adds 3.5 points for home court advantage to compute a spread based on Predictor numbers.

After Thursday's games, the predictor ratings were:

87.15 Arizona

83.12 UCLA

83.10 Colorado

82.70 Oregon

82.65 Furd

81.98 Cal

79.09 Arizona State

78.75 Washington

78.60 USC

76.55 Oregon State

76.35 Washington State

74.33 Utah

One could argue that Cal is playing better than an 81.98 team right now, perhaps as good as an 85.0 team, that Oregon is playing more like a 80.0 team, and that USC is more like an 81.0 these days. For simplicity I'll just use the current predictor ratings, though, in computing spreads for each team's remaining Pac-12 games:

10-4 Arizona

-14.3 vs. WSU

-5.05 @ USC

-0.53 @ UCLA

-11.56 vs. ASU

Probably will finish 14-4 or 13-5.

10-4 Oregon

-3.55 vs. Furd

-9.65 vs. OSU

+3.90 @ Colorado

-4.87 @ Utah

Projected finish of 13-5, but any outcome is possible in those 4 games.

9-4 UCLA

-1.02 @ USC

-7.53 vs. ASU

+0.53 vs. Arizona

-4.27 @ WSU

-0.87 @ Washington

Estimating 13-5 or 12-6

9-5 Cal

-1.93 @ OSU

-11.14 vs. Utah

-2.38 vs. Colorado

-2.83 vs. Stanford

Projecting 12-6 even though we're favored in all, because 3 are very tough games, but 13-5 is certainly possible, as is 11-7.

9-5 Arizona St.

-3.82 vs. Washington

+7.53 @ UCLA

+3.03 @ USC

+11.56 @ Arizona

Projecting 10-8.

8-6 Colorado

+3.05 @ Furd

+2.38 @ Cal

-3.00 vs. Oregon

-10.05 vs. OSU

Projecting 10-8, 11-7 more likely than 9-9.

7-6 USC

+1.02 vs. UCLA

+5.05 vs. Arizona

-3.03 vs. ASU

+3.65 @ Was

+0.25 @ WSU

Projects to 9-9, but they could be a major spoiler for UCLA, Arizona and ASU. If Cal wins in Corvalis, USC victories become our main hope for a conference title.

7-7 Furd

-2.60 @ OSU

-3.05 vs. Colorado

-11.82 vs. Utah

+2.83 @ Cal

Likely 10-8 or 9-9. Need to go 11-7 and do well in conference tourney to climb back on the bubble.

After a long series of improbable and/or difficult wins, Cal now finds itself in great position for claiming 4th place and a 1st round bye in the conference tourney. If Cal can win out the tie breakers are favorable for us and one loss by Arizona would make the #1 seed seem likely (assuming UCLA and Oregon also lose somewhere).

If Cal loses one or two hopefully it won't involve a loss to Colorado because they could become our biggest competition for he #4 spot. ASU is theoretically a challenger, but.the odds suggest we'll probably finish comfortably ahead of them with their tough schedule down the stretch.

The opinions expressed in a FanPost are, in every way, reflective of the opinions of every California Golden Blogs Marshawnthusiast. Moreover, they are reflective of every employee of SBNation, including Tyler "Blez" Bleszinski.

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