Selection and seeding depends mostly on some combination of a team's RPI and their "quality wins" against other teams with high RPIs. Currently the Pac-12 looks like it has 5 teams in:
Cal has three big wins against teams above us and a shot at two more, so we're in if we hold this level. We could still drop down onto the bubble and then fall off of it. A few tough losses, injuries to or too much wear and tear on key players could drop us back toward 60 and out of the tourney. If we somehow stayed hot enough and managed to win out we'd end up in the mid-30s RPI.
Stanford and ASU really need to finish strong to get back up into the low 50s and get a shot at an at large bid. I think they're both likely headed for the NIT at this point because neither is playing well enough. The math especially works against ASU since it's harder to move up when you already have a high won/lost record and a soft strength of schedule.
71 Arizona State
Washington and USC are probably mathematically out of NCAA contention by now and would need a Pac-12 tournament win to get the automatic bid.
After losing to Washington, Cal was at #84, Washington was at #60 and ASU was at #50. We were in about the same spot after the Stanford loss, but have clawed our way up since then. Losses at ASU and Colorado had no significant effect on our RPI since they had very good records and those were road games for us.