Berkelium97 said: "Do you plan to do this with Cal against each of our opponents? It would make for a great fanpost…"
The Swamphunter says: "Sure! Why the hell not?"
In this, I simulate NCAA Football 2013 to show predictions of how our Golden Bears will do this upcoming season.
Note: Cal's stats in the game are B Overall, B+ Offense and C+ Defense. Defense is unfairly low, so expect some blowout scores.
The results of the first simulation are as follows:
Yeeeeeah... no bueno. No bueno at all. Things looked like they turned around after we upset Ohio State, but everything fell apart after $C hung 56 points on us. We managed to beat the Pirate Cougars, yet we still lost to a Furd squad that just managed a .500 record. And somehow, OSU got even worse than they were last year. Oh, and the Fuskies are now #1 in the Nation. GOD DAMN YOU TOSH.
Our Achilles heel was going onto National TV where we only won one game, the tOSU one. Every other game was a flop when the nation watched us play, and then we only managed a 3-3 record on the new Pac-12 network, too.
Of course, only one season is not enough to work on, so I have decided to do this for a total of five times so I can work up a good average to base this report on.
Well... we got one more win... but at a price. Maynard was lost mid season to a partially torn ACL. This time, it looks like we had something kinda going even after we lost to the Buckeyes in a close game, but then we were forced to walk the plank when Wazzu hung 59 points on us. Also, the 6-6 Furd squad killed us instead of a close game. We managed to beat the Devils and the Baby Bears, though!
Our overall attendance dropped by ~2,000, and National TV was somewhat nicer to us this time, but still the key to our downfall. Pac-12 Network continues to be indifferent.
Another 5-7 season. This time we at least won all of our non-conference games, including kicking the tar out of the Buckeyes. The rest of the season was mostly close games for the most part... until Big Game and then we got the tar kicked out of us for the rest of the season, pretty much. Utah and Washington are Top Ten teams, and OSU continues to be awful. Again, a 6-6 Furd team blows us out in what is becoming a recurring trend (that we lose to a mediocre Furd team that is not as good as last year at all).
The Pac-12 Network is our saving grace this year, where we have a winning record on games shown locally. Nationally, though, continues to be our calling card for fail. Interestingly enough, our attendance is the highest it's been so far.
This isn't looking too good, guys. Of course, most of this is chalked up to our awfully rated defense, but it is rather depressing nonetheless.We ended the year on a five game skid that started with, you guessed it, losing to a 6-6 Furd team. Most of our games were relatively close, save for UCLA and Washington curb stomping us.
National TV was our death card. No wins at all. The Pac-12 Network was at least kind to us. Bonus factoid: attendance was second most in the simulations so far, despite another losing record.
This is the worst. Possible. Thing.
6-6 Furd beats us. Again.
We lost to a Top Ten Oregon team in OT by three points.
Pretty much the rest of our losses were curb stompings by our opponents.
We somehow lost both Sofele and Maynard to injury in the middle of the season only for them to return at the end of a horrific 3-9 campaign.
We lost to Southern freaking Utah.
Okay... some final numbers to look at:
FINAL W-L RATIO: 21-39
By each team:
vs Nevada: 3-2
vs Southern Utah (FCS W): 4-1
@ Ohio State: 2-3
@ U$C: 0-5
vs ASU: 2-3
vs UCLA: 1-4
@ WSU: 4-1
vs Furd: 0-5
@ Utah: 0-5
vs Wash: 1-4
vs Ore: 0-5
@ OSU: 4-1
We had the best record against our FCS team, Wazzu and the Beavers. Nevada was a toss-up for the most part. We did surprisingly well against the Buckeyes. The Fuskies, Devils and Bruins gave us a hard time most of the time. The Ducks, Furd, $C and Utah kicked our asses all day every day.
Our best seasons were two 5-7 seasons. Followed by two 4-8 seasons and a final 3-8 season.
Most of our high-profile game losses were by blowouts, once again due to the poorly rated defense not performing well against the highly-scored offenses.
FINAL NOTE: The game has the Cal Bears as the constant 8th or 9th place Pac-12 team, usually coming in somewhere between 4th or 6th in the Pac-12 North. U$C and Oregon are constantly in the top 25, usually in the Top Ten.
Furd is the only team that maintained the same record for all five simulated seasons at 6-6 (Nevada was second with four 8-4 seasons and one 9-3 one).
What can we take away from this: Well, according to the game our defense is shit, even though the majority of our squad as well as our DC are returning from an impressive year last year. The only (and most likely) way these simulations come true is if our defense is really as bad as the game portrays it as, as well as high-profile players on offense being taken out due to injury as shown in the 3-8 season and Maynard for the latter half of the first 5-7 season.
And I personally don't see that happening, knock on wood.