Cal Women's Basketball vs. UCLA Preview + Gamethread
by norcalnick on Feb 9, 2012 6:02 PM PST
in California Golden Bears Women's Basketball
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PrintWhen: 7:00 PT
Audio Stream: Cal All-Access
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I don’t get UCLA. After all of the roster carnage they have just seven healthy players left, and they didn’t look very good against a tough non-conference schedule. And yet here they are, sitting at 7-4 in conference with a viable shot at 2nd place. How?! Well, some of it is being a bit lucky, as UCLA has won two overtime games and two other games that were one possession contests within the final minute.
But there’s no denying that the Bruins have improved as the season progressed, led by the contributions of senior Rebekah Gardner and junior Marcel Walker. The emergence of sophomore guard Thea Lemberger has been the other key to UCLA’s upswing in conference play.
Still, this just isn’t the same Nikki-Caldwell-led team that has beaten Cal seven straight times. It’s not Cori Close’s fault that the Bruins lost so many players to graduation or injury, but this is still a team that plays seven deep with four inexperienced underclassmen. They don’t defend like they did under Caldwell, and they aren’t as efficient on offense. Walker and Gardner are good enough to hide many weaknesses, but this is still a team Cal should have beaten in January, and should beat tonight. The UCLA losing streak ends now.
Our computer overlords (Sagarin) predict: Cal by 9.75
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Category
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Cal Ranking
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UCLA Ranking
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Advantage
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Cal eFG% v. UCLA Def eFG%
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127
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199
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C
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Cal Def eFG% v. UCLA eFG%
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96
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194
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C
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Cal TO% v. UCLA Def TO%
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99
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179
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C
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Cal Def TO% v. UCLA TO%
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228
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87
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UU
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Cal Reb% v. UCLA Reb%
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2
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165
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CC
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Cal FTR v. UCLA Opp FTR
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162
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72
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U
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Cal Opp FTR v. UCLA FTR
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118
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242
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CC
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Cal O-PPP v. UCLA D-PPP
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44
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205
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CC
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Cal D-PPP v. UCLA O-PPP
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60
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132
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C
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When you look at UCLA’s healthy roster it’s really, really hard to understand how UCLA is competitive, let alone in 3rd place in the conference. When you look at their stats it’s even harder. Cal easily outpaces the Bruins in three of the four factors, though it’s worth noting that UCLA’s early season schedule was brutal and perhaps has an outsized impact on their season total stats.
UCLA’s only advantages is that they are unlikely to turn the ball over or foul much. Everything else is in Cal’s favor. I’m going to be bold and suggest that as long as Cal doesn’t shoot an eFG% of 31% they will be in pretty great shape. I really really don’t see Gen Brandon, Layshia Clarendon, Brittany Boyd and Reshanda Gray combining to go 14-47 from the field. Boyd in particular had a rough game against UCLA but has clearly been playing her best basketball over the last few weeks which could be the key difference tonight.
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Note: Cal All-Access doesn’t have a video stream link as of right now, and the schedule links to UCLA All-Access, which also doesn’t have a video stream link. Hopefully something pops up between now and gametime, but as of now I’m not sure if there will be a video stream.
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It looks like no video. The Cal website has a link to streaming video, but it takes you to the Ucla website. And there is no such video on the Ucla website — obviously because the game is being played in Berkeley. I will never understand why this whole system is so screwed up. How much can it possibly cost to stream on-line the feed that already appears on the replay screen? And why would it not be done for every home game? Ugh!
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Coach Swag sez:
Key to the game is keeping UCLA off the offensive glass. Also wants Cal to be decisive on offense.
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Interesting
Reshanda still starting over Gen Brandon. I hope Gen still isn’t sick.
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The way Dave Lewis is talking
sounds like the refs are letting things go tonight. Probably better for UCLA since they’re thinner.
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1-7 from the field to start the game
Luckily UCLA hasn’t really taken advantage if our slow start.
The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS
Brandon is now. She can’t be too sick, since she hasn’t stopped playing. But it seems like Gottlieb is trying to limit her minutes. Or maybe she just isn’t being as effective as usual.
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Well, we’re shooting 27% but it’s still tied. Hopefully we rediscover the offense while continuing the solid defense.
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TALIA!
17-16 Bears, and I get the sense that this one is going to play out like the ASU game in terms of tenseness.
The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS
I’m all for the refs letting the players play, but if Dave Lewis is accurate, Cal is really getting hammered, with no foul calls, which is costing us big. And Dave doesn’t seem like a whiner about the lack of foul calls in general, so I tend to believe what he is saying here.
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19-16 Bears!
Sounds like we’re starting to assert more on the glass.
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Nice, 3 fouls on any UCLA starter is huge
but especially a big.
The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS
Afure having a solid game so far
Hopefully she’s feeling fully recovered.
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Feels like we've missed an inordinate amount of layups today
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I think that was a block by Boyd, but Dave Lewis got so excited I couldn’t quite hear what he was saying!
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Our shooting has improved to 36%, but we still seem to be missing a lot of shots.
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Well, it never felt like we were playing very well
And we’re winning. So there’s that.
The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS
Nice halftime interview with Eliza Pierre. She attributes her improved shooting this year in part to getting contact lenses! She says her coaches and teammates have been urging her to do this, and even though they are helping, she says she still finds them uncomfortable. She also said she worked on her form at lot over the summer. And she wants to be a firefighter after she finishes playing basketball. She sounds like a lovely young girl.
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I just love the idea of Eliza running
up and down ladders. I’d trust her to rescue my grandtots.
Big enough for the Ucla coach to need a time out. The Bears have really come out at the half on fire!
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Whoa, Utah beat ASU
That means that if we sweep this weekend we’ll have a 3 game lead on every other team in the conference not named Stanford.
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51-41 Bears
The 2nd half has been much more offensive – Cal’s shooting like 35% higher in this half.
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Layshia picks up her fourth foul. That’s most unfortunate, with 8 minutes left.
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On free throws the man behind me keeps shouting at the women “Put it in the hole. Yeah, put it in the hole.”
by paleodan on Feb 9, 2012 8:32 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Now Gray with 4 fouls
This is probably the first game of the year with serious foul trouble. Glad we have a lead, though it might be tough to hold on.
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And the Bears turn it over again. Their 21 turnover! This is getting scary. A 7 point lead with 4 minutes to go.
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Nice - UCLA has a 25 second possession that ends in an airball
Defense!
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I can’t believe we’ve run the “escape the press and throw it ou of bounds” play three times!!!
by paleodan on Feb 9, 2012 8:51 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Hmm, I seem to have caught this game in the fouling stretch of a game’s end.
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--Thoroughbred
“Lemberger’s 3 may have been the last gasp…”
I HOPE SO!
Man crush on Aaron Rodgers, since 2003.
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That's ugly
Except there’s no such thing as an ugly win!
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PALMS OF VICTORY
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67-58 final score -- but it was much closer than that.
And the Bears break a freaking SEVEN game losing streak to the baby bears.
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17 points and 14 boards for Reshanda
Wow, easily player of the game.
The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS
Wow. I haven't seen a boxscore yet.
Good work, Reshanda! You are a goddess.
I had a vision—have ’em all the time—this evening of dying at a Cal game, just as some raw-but-gifted rookie is making clutch free throws. Preferably in my late ’90s.
Thank you, CalBear81.
It never seems like a true win until you post “PALMS OF VICTORY!”
OMFG.
I just looked at Boyd’s stat line. I’ll try not to think too hard about it; she did more good than harm. I think.
Tara Vanderveer is saying really nice things about Cal:
“Cal is clearly a top-25 team,” she said. “You say they went into overtime against Arizona (before winning 78-74). Well, Arizona is really talented.” She might be stretching the point about the last-place Wildcats (2-9, 13-10), but she’s on firmer ground in defending second-place Cal (8-3, 17-6). The Bears have had narrow losses at Stanford, in overtime, at Rutgers (now No. 17) and to Ohio State (No. 10). “People on TV are raving about Duke point guard Chelsea Gray,” VanDerveer said. “I think (Cal freshman) Brittany Boyd might be better than her.”
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/02/08/SP5G1N4TC6.DTL#ixzz1lxei93AH
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