Cal Women's Basketball At Oregon Preview + Gamethread

Matt Court: More exciting to play on than to look at.

When: 7:00 pm PT
Radio Stream: Cal All-Access
Video Stream: GoDucks.TV ($$$)
Gametracker

After losing like that against USC, the Bears should be plenty motivated to start another win streak. And although they are on the road, I could think of few teams better suited for just that purpose than Oregon. The Bears should be heavy favorites today because the Ducks have struggled this season and because Cal has matched up very well against them since Paul Westhead took over.

Except . . . Oregon has been on something of a hot streak. It started with a rather shocking 21 point win over UCLA. The Ducks have since added three more wins over Utah, Colorado and Washington State and their two most recent losses were competitive games decided by single figures. It’s probably not a coincidence that most of this run came with Amanda Johnson’s return from injury.

So I’m not going to assume a win today, especially since the Bears didn’t look their sharpest at home last week. If Cal can run with the Ducks and hold down Johnson they’ll probably escape Matt Court with a comfortable win. But we all remember Cal’s trip to Tucson – the Bears aren’t so dominant that road victories can be assumed. They’ll have to play well to earn this one.

Our computer overlords (Sagarin) predict: Cal by 10.37

Category

Cal Ranking

Ore Ranking

Advantage

Cal eFG% v. Ore Def eFG%

123

201

C

Cal Def eFG% v. Ore eFG%

114

135

C

Cal TO% v. Ore Def TO%

110

267

CC

Cal Def TO% v. Ore TO%

225

57

OO

Cal Reb% v. Ore Reb%

2

230

CCC

Cal FTR v. Ore Opp FTR

159

27

OO

Cal Opp FTR v. Ore FTR

138

129

-

Cal O-PPP v. Ore D-PPP

42

294

CCC

Cal D-PPP v. Ore O-PPP

79

90

C

Oregon hasn’t been able to beat Cal recently for two main reasons: they can’t buy a rebound, and the Bears are fast enough to run right with the Ducks, neutralizing their offense in the process. In the previous game at Haas, Cal won the rebounding battle 61-22. Cal had more offensive rebounds than Oregon had total rebounds!

Amanda Johnson is a great player and a good rebounder, and without her Oregon stood no chance. With her back there is always the possibility that the Ducks will be able to hold their own on the glass. But it’s hard to imagine one player making up a 40 rebound differential by herself.

Really, the main way Cal can hurt themselves is if they don’t shoot well. Oregon won’t put up a ton of defensive resistance, and Cal hasn’t had trouble scoring against them in the past. Oregon won’t win this game with rebounding, turnovers or free throws, so they’re going to have to shoot way better than the Bears. I don’t think that’s likely, but stranger things have happened.

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