This Week In The Pac-12: Sizing Up The Final Stretch
by norcalnick on Feb 13, 2012 10:30 AM PST
in California Golden Bears Men's Basketball
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PrintWith 12 games on tap including a few games between teams in contention for the conference title, this seemed like a potentially exciting weekend for Pac-12 basketball. But then they played the games and nothing particularly exciting happened. The average margin of victory last week was a hair over 12, and only two games finished with a smaller margin than 9. One of those games was the marginally exciting but exceedingly ugly contest between Washington and Oregon State. So yeah, not a good week for compelling basketball.
On the bright side, Oregon's win over Washington and Arizona's win over Colorado tightened up the standings atop the conference, and everything is finely poised for a thrilling finish to a jumbled race. The Bears and Huskies stand at 10-3 with the Buffs, Ducks and Wildcats just a game back at 9-4. Each team has just five games left to somehow separate themselves from the rest of the pack. To see who has the strongest chance let's rank each team's remaining schedule from hardest to easiest.
Oregon
Home: Colorado, Utah
Road: Cal, Stanford, Oregon St.
Oregon is one of the two teams nobody expected to have a shot at the title, and if they pull it off they'll have earned it. The Bay Area road trip is probably the toughest in the conference, the Beavers are a dangerously flawed team, and Colorado probably won't be a pushover, road struggles aside. It's hard to see a 4-1 finish, which is almost certainly the minimum necessary to have a chance. There's no way a 12-6 record is good enough, even this year. RIGHT?
Colorado
Home: Cal, Stanford
Road: Utah, Oregon, Oregon St.
Colorado's schedule is almost identical to Oregon's schedule, but the Buffs get their toughest games at home at altitude, which gives them a solid chance if they can stay undefeated in Boulder. If you assume that Colorado stays unbeaten at home (admittedly, a big leap) and gets past a bad Utah team on the road, then they only need a split on the road in Oregon to finish the season 13-5. Would that be enough to get a piece of the title?
California
Home: Oregon, Oregon St.
Road: Utah, Colorado, Stanford
Cal's remaining schedule seems neither especially easy or difficult. There's only one gimme (Utah) but only one game seems more likely to end in a loss (Colorado). Of course, this assumes that Cal manages to defend their home court on senior week against a team with four conference road wins and another than already beat the Bears. Yes, I'm already getting nervous. If Cal takes care of business it seems likely that they will enter the final week of the regular season needing one win in Palo Alto for at least a share of the title. Sound familiar?
Arizona
Home: USC, UCLA
Road: Washington St., Washington, Arizona St.
ASU, USC and Utah are three teams that should pose absolutely no threat to the best teams of the conference. Arizona and Washington are at the bottom of this list because they have two games remaining against those teams, rather than just one like Cal, Colorado and Oregon. I'm really glad that Arizona managed to lose three games by a combined five points, and that the Bears don't have to visit Tucson. They're playing the best basketball in the conference right now, but losing the close ones means they're still playing from behind.
Washington
Home: Arizona St., Arizona
Road: Washington St., USC, UCLA
Arizona and Washington play the same four teams (and each other). Washington's schedule is listed as the easiest because they get the Wildcats at home, a potentially huge advantage to have. Still, it's hard to see UW winning out with two tough road games and the red-hot Wildcats left on the schedule.
Next Week
Wednesday
USC at UCLA, 7:30, FCS
Thursday
Arizona at Washington St., 6:00
Oregon St. at Stanford, 7:00
Oregon at California, 7:30, CSNCA
Arizona St. at Washington, 8:00
Saturday
UCLA at St. John's, 10:00, CBS
Arizona at Washington, 12:00, FSN
Colorado at Utah, 2:00
Arizona St. at Washington St., 5:00
Oregon St. at California, 8:00, CSNCA
Sunday
Oregon at Stanford, 4:30, FSN
First of all - CBS can choose a certain number of Pac-12 games to air nationally. One of the games they picked is UCLA vs. St. John's, because a a 10-15 Big East team is apparently a better TV draw than pretty much any other Pac-12 program. Sigh.
But this week includes two of the four most important games left in the conference season. Oregon's Thursday night visit to Haas Pavilion is close to a must-win for both teams - the Ducks want the only high RPI win available and Cal can't lose at home if they want the title.
But Arizona's visit to Washington is probably the most important single game left. The Wildcats have the best chance of the three teams one game back in the standings to climb upwards, but they'll need to win in Seattle to do it. If Cal and Washington both sweep this week it's all but a two team race, but if Oregon and Arizona win we might enter the last two weeks with a five way tie in the loss column!
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Lunardi has us up to a 9 seed, with our RPI climbing to 38. He’s got Zona as the only other P12 in the field as an 11, and UW among the first four out.
Any loss will shake this up considerably. So. Win, then win, then win again.
Ugh. Not another 8 or 9 seed. 7, 10, or 11 please. 6 is in reach if we win out and win conf tourney
Cal
by Thoroughbred on Feb 13, 2012 11:22 AM PST up reply actions
Oh, I think we can do better than a 6 seed
if we win the next 5 games and then win the conference tournament. If that were to happen, we’d be 28-6 with both league titles and and an 11 game win streak. Unfortunately, I don’t think we have a good chance of that happening, especially in the back to back to back nights at Staples. Just not built for it, depth. Maybe there can be upsets on the other side of the bracket.
At this point, the WSU and OSU losses hurt the most on our “record”, while getting blown out by Mizzou and UNLV did lots of damage to our rep. Certainly would have been nice to win at SDSU. The loss to Arizona is the one that is least frustrating.
We aren’t doing any better than a 5 without a top-50 RPI win, and that’s if everything in our schedule and throughout the country goes absolutely perfectly. Teams currently in the 5 neighborhood include St. Marys (3 top-50 wins, 29 RPI), SDSU (4, 22), Florida (4, 25).
If we win eight in a row I think 6 is the likeliest outcome.
I have an unproven hypothesis that the committee actually seeds better teams at the 10 line than at the 8 line
i.e. teams ranked #25-28 will, ceteris paribus, be seeded #10, not #8; teams ranked 33-36 will be the 9 seeds.
I think this helps explain what are otherwise some curious anomalies in tournament performance (such as the fact that 10 seeds regularly make the Sweet 16 whereas it’s vanishingly rare for a 9 seed to do so).
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Interesting Notion
And I love the “ceteris paribus”!
I think the easier game first is better for Cal. They can use more players and rest the starters for the Colorado game. Also they will have longer to acclimate to altitude, especially since the game is on Sunday.
by VermontBear on Feb 13, 2012 12:52 PM PST up reply actions
IMO four days rest + game plan preparation > two days. Yes, the Utah game is unlikely to be overly taxing to our starters, but it can’t be better than actual rest. Also, I believe there to be a cumulative fatigue effect from being away from home. And I don’t think you can get used to altitude in a couple days. If there is a positive it’s that they have a much tougher first game matchup than we do, but I consider that dwarfed by all the negatives.
The worst days for most people are generally days 2-5.
Day one feels OK, and after a week you start to feel better.
DRINK LOTS OF WATER!
http://www.exercisephysiologymd.com/altitude/how-long-does-it-typically-take-to-adjust-to-altitude/
There’s some conflating of immediate altitude sickness versus the ability to perform high-intensity cardio-vascular activities with aerobic efficiency…both in the article (inadvertently, I’m sure the author understands the difference) and in this thread.
I continue to believe whatever benefit might be derived from a couple extra days of acclimation is dwarfed by the five day effect of being on the road (on a new two game swing that none of these players has experienced), having to play a game on Thursday (with some minimal risk that Utah gives us a tougher game than expected), having less time to prepare.
I don’t think it’s more than a few points difference, and depending on how the next week in the conference goes, I think the sense of urgency will tend to reduce the chances we come out flat. So it’s may not be a game changer. But chances are this will be a close game, and I’d prefer any advantage.
I understand what you’re saying and partially agree. Just acclimating to the higher altitude and being able to run up and down a court for 30 minutes are two very different things. But these guys are athletes and if they keep themselves extremely hydrated, they should be fine.
I had an extremely bad case of altitude sickness the first time I went to Denver because I started off with 2 9% beers before I had any water, but I got through it the first night and was fine for the rest of the week. This was in the middle of the winter when it was freezing, snowing, and I had to walk a ton to get around the city. I’m guessing that if these freaks of nature don’t get drunk first thing off the plane and keep themselves very well hydrated up till the start of the game, it shouldn’t be too much of an issue.
Obviously, the altitude will be an advantage for Colorado, but it’s something I really don’t like bringing up because in the end, it’s nothing but an excuse. Good teams win wherever they play. I think we’re the better team, so we should be able to play through it and win.
HAH
I just had a great idea, possibly. It’s one road trip, right? They don’t fly to Salt Lake, come back to Berkeley, and then fly out to Boulder, right?
So what they should do is play the game against Utah on Thursday, then drive to Colorado on I-70. On the way, they can spend Friday and Saturday in Vail, CO (Elevation: 8,000 ft), and then go down to Boulder for Sunday’s game. 5,400 ft will feel a lot better after a couple of days at 8,000 ft. :)
"i, for one, welcome our new atomic overlords" - GoldBlooded
by atomsareenough on Feb 13, 2012 3:04 PM PST up reply actions
Having the extra day with the game being on Sunday AND having the team played at Colorado last year (NIT 2nd round where our season ended) can hopefully prepare us better for that game.
by LEastCoastBears on Feb 13, 2012 1:58 PM PST up reply actions
I don't know why...
….I recorded the Furd-USC game. My eyes still hurt.
Couldn’t have been worse than the UW-OSU game.
"i, for one, welcome our new atomic overlords" - GoldBlooded
by atomsareenough on Feb 13, 2012 12:18 PM PST up reply actions
the fail in those games were particular one-sided.
The UW-OSU game was horrible on both ends.
no bear, no care
by EchoOfSilence on Feb 13, 2012 12:32 PM PST up reply actions
Sure, but your game yesterday was one of the worst I’ve seen, period.
"i, for one, welcome our new atomic overlords" - GoldBlooded
by atomsareenough on Feb 13, 2012 12:33 PM PST up reply actions
You didn't enjoy watching Pac-12 refs attempt to clean up Dip-N-Dots for 10 minutes?
This might seem ridiculous, but what exactly made it so bad to you? There were a few sloppy possesions, and it wasn’t the cleanest game (which happens every time we play against a zone), but it didn’t seem like it was terrible basketball to me. At the very least it was entertaining.
by UW11Bowdown on Feb 13, 2012 12:40 PM PST up reply actions
you’ve already stated you’ve become immune to watching sloppy basketball and enjoy the excitement. lol.
it wasn’t clean at all
no bear, no care
by EchoOfSilence on Feb 13, 2012 12:42 PM PST up reply actions
The game had no flow whatsoever. Even the announcers were complaining about it. So many stupid turnovers, passes to nowhere, fouls, very few actual plays run. It almost looked like a rec league game or something, except for the zone defenses.
"i, for one, welcome our new atomic overlords" - GoldBlooded
by atomsareenough on Feb 13, 2012 12:46 PM PST up reply actions
I saw both.
It was. Far worse. The only thing worse than a crappy game is a crappy game with no audience to speak of. At least there was effort in the OSU-UW game amongst the players.
More specifically....
…….the OSU-UW game was fairly well defended on both sides, which did make the offenses ugly. However, there were some exciting plays and some athleticism on display. I’ll invite any of you to point to me at what point in the USC-Furd game either of those things happened.
Question for Cal fans
Let’s say you lose one game, at colorado for instance, and UW wins out and wins the conference outright. Then, in the Pac-12 tournament Cal wins 2 games. How good would you feel about your NCAA chances if you:
A. Lost to UW in the final, giving UW the autobid and making Cal the definite 2nd choice for a Pac-12 bid.
B. Lost to a top 5 team other than UW in the final. This would mean that the auto bid went to Colo, UO, or AZ. UW would only have won 1 game in the conference tourney but would still be the regular season champs. Who gets in first, UW or Cal? Do they both get in?
Just figured I’d see what you thought on a slow monday at work.
If we lose just one more game in the conference schedule, we’d still get in IMO
A. Pretty sure we’d still get in
B. Unsure how much weight selection committee puts on “Regular Season Champ”
Cal
by Thoroughbred on Feb 13, 2012 11:21 AM PST up reply actions
Me too.
Everyone seems to think that the outright regular season championship is essentially an autobid. I’m certianly hoping that is the case, but I have no idea how the commitee considers things like that.
by UW11Bowdown on Feb 13, 2012 11:37 AM PST up reply actions
Two years ago
we got a slightly higher seed (but that deadly 8 or 9) than expected by some due to our regular season champ title. Back then, of course, it has more meaning without this unbalanced schedule stuff.
by LEastCoastBears on Feb 13, 2012 12:05 PM PST up reply actions
If I’m remembering right, we had an RPI in the high 20s or low 30s, which did not jibe with our mediocre subjective resume (sound familiar?), but served to mitigate it somewhat. My belief is it’s tough (but possible) for people in that room to leave out a “power conference” regular season champ, but that same regular season title has very little effect on seeding.
None, essentially
Their metrics are built to compare teams across conferences, not to compare conferences as a whole.
As long as Cal’s RPI stays on the good side of 40, I think the Bears are fine. Get below that and it’s dicey.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Until UW---
defends interior passing better, I don’t see UW winning that game. Arizona defends Cal much better than UW does, and so I fear them more. Thus scenario B is far more likely. Which would be bad. I think in retrospect Cal makes it anyway, though. I think Cal at 26-8 gets in.
You wouldn't be worried about playing UW on a neuteral court for your third game in three days?
Remember that when you played us the first time we didn’t have CJ Wilcox, our third leading scorer. UW is a much better team now than when we played Cal the first time, I’d feel very good about our chances against Cal in the tourney final. A part of that may be that we’ve won the last 2 tournaments though, it feels like we can’t lose them right now.
by UW11Bowdown on Feb 13, 2012 11:48 AM PST up reply actions
We’re a double digit dog in that scenario. The only reason I don’t make it 20 is your half court offensive execution is so godawful.
It could certainly be better.
I saw some of the comments here about the game yesterday, it was interesting to see some outsider views on things (essentially that it was a disgusting game).
I’m so used to this sort of offense that I don’t even see the offense itself as being the problem any more. Every game comes down to whether certian players will step up and carry us to victory despite our faults. If we lose it is the player’s fault (Ross, Wroten, Gaddy, or Wilcox) for not carrying us to victory instead of the teams fault. Ridiculous, I know.
by UW11Bowdown on Feb 13, 2012 12:09 PM PST up reply actions
I’ve lived through enough eras of Cal basketball to remember rooting for teams like that, and I much prefer rooting for Monty style teams. That said, it would be nice if Monty had a deep, athletic team at some point in his tenure.
Not going to lie.
Romar has been succesful enough that I believe we can succeed with the offense we run, but besides that, I find our style of play to be much more entertaining and I fear I’d be bored with a team which ran a bunch more set plays. I know that others find the offense we run to be extremely frustrating, I think it is really fun watching our players grow together over the course of a season and learn how to fit into the offense.
I can only imagine how good we might be if everyone were to come back for next year.
by UW11Bowdown on Feb 13, 2012 12:33 PM PST up reply actions
It’s not the style, it’s the execution. Romar’s team’s of the past several years have been very good at exploiting mismatches and finding good shots, both in the half and full court. Or at least doing it a high enough percentage of the time to take advantage of their personnel strengths.
In my observation the current team is lost in the half court the majority of the time, and settles for a lot of shots the opposition would like them to take. I think a lot of this is attributable to Wroten, who makes up for much of the dumb with raw talent, but would be a monster if he knew what he was doing. Or maybe it’s not dumb, maybe it’s youth. Either way, right now a lot of the obvious talent on the floor is being wasted.
Wroten's pretty terrible, actually
Having him declare for the NBA would be addition by subtraction.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I completely disagree
Everything he is bad at can easily be improved upon if he comes back next year.
by UW11Bowdown on Feb 14, 2012 11:00 AM PST up reply actions
it feels like we can’t lose them right now.
lol seriously, man?
no bear, no care
by EchoOfSilence on Feb 13, 2012 12:03 PM PST up reply actions
We are 6-0 in our last 6 tournament games.
With three wins by 4 or fewer points, two of which came in the tournament final. It has been a long time since we’ve been knocked out of the Pac-10 tournament.
Obviously not a really rational reason to think we’d do well in any specific game, but Romar has consistently done well in the tournament, so I’m not going to fully discount it.
by UW11Bowdown on Feb 13, 2012 12:12 PM PST up reply actions
Sure. We can only see.
no bear, no care
by EchoOfSilence on Feb 13, 2012 12:22 PM PST up reply actions
You don’t have Isaiah this time though. This team is much much dumber.
Arizona is probably the favorite to win the tournament (good coach + good athletes), with Colorado, UW, Oregon and Cal somewhere in the mix.
by Avinash Kunnath on Feb 13, 2012 1:09 PM PST up reply actions
I don't know if dumber is the right way to say it, more inexperienced, yes.
And sure, we don’t have I.T. this year, but we didn’t have Quincy Pondexter last year and we did fine. Terrence Ross made the all tournament team last year and CJ Wilcox hit the 3 pointer to send it to over time. Our most important players, outside of Wroten, have experience playing well in the tournament.
I’d almost rather we play Arizona in the second round and Cal in the final, if we can avoid zone defenses we should be alright.
Less time to prepare increases the chances you will run people out of the gym, which makes you dangerous as always at Staples. That said, I agree with Avi that as it stands now, I’d take Zona to win the tournament.
Nothing too outlandish about thinking Zona is the favorite at this point.
We’ll know a lot more a week from now about how Cal-Oregon and UW-AZ stand in comparison to each other.
I wish I have your optimism about your team.
by LEastCoastBears on Feb 13, 2012 12:07 PM PST up reply actions
You guys need one of these.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEGP6nBiub8
Amazing how optimistic ridiculous comebacks in previous years by players who are no longer with the team can make you feel.
by UW11Bowdown on Feb 13, 2012 12:14 PM PST up reply actions
Sadly, I think Washington has an easier schedule. UW’s tougher games are Zona @ UW, and @ UCLA…
We have to beat Oregon at home, @ Colorado, and @ Furd.
no bear, no care
by EchoOfSilence on Feb 13, 2012 11:32 AM PST up reply actions
I agree that we have the better schedule.
I’m hoping that by the time we play at UCLA they will have completely given up on the season and folded.
by UW11Bowdown on Feb 13, 2012 11:35 AM PST up reply actions
I don't think it is that out of the realm of possibility.
That game won’t mean anything to them.
Josh Smith seems to realize that this season has been a total waste for him. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/huskybasketball/2017494069_plaschke13.html?syndication=rss
by UW11Bowdown on Feb 13, 2012 11:40 AM PST up reply actions
Sure, anything’s possible if that’s the argument. But I just don’t believe that D1 athletes will give up if they feel they have nothing to play for. They’ll fight.
no bear, no care
by EchoOfSilence on Feb 13, 2012 11:42 AM PST up reply actions
I probably overstated things a bit.
I don’t mean that they just wouldn’t try at all or anything like that. All I meant was that if you have a UW team playing for the conference championship against a UCLA team with nothing to play for then it seems like UW might be a bit more motivated to do well. We’ve certianly all seen teams “give up” when down 10 with nothing to really play for right? That’s the sort of scenario I’m kind of envisioning. If UW jumped out to an early lead than UCLA would just fold with nothing to play for.
by UW11Bowdown on Feb 13, 2012 11:51 AM PST up reply actions
Thats not true at all. Staying in college another year means close proximity to Diddy Reise!
In the Game of Trolls, you either troll or you die.
CaliforniaGoldenBlogs: Read It | Follow It | Like It | Wear It
That’s much better than far proximity.
"i, for one, welcome our new atomic overlords" - GoldBlooded
by atomsareenough on Feb 13, 2012 12:25 PM PST up reply actions
I don’t think the voters really look at “regular season conference champion”, unfortunately. I think they’d look at overall record. If Cal lost one game between now and the Pac-12 tourney, but then won 2 games in the tourney, and UW didn’t lose until the first game of the conference tourney, I think Cal should probably be picked before UW for the NCAA tourney in that scenario, but they’d both be close and very bubblicious.
"i, for one, welcome our new atomic overlords" - GoldBlooded
by atomsareenough on Feb 13, 2012 12:22 PM PST up reply actions
Exactly :)
"i, for one, welcome our new atomic overlords" - GoldBlooded
by atomsareenough on Feb 13, 2012 12:25 PM PST up reply actions
They’ll insist that is the case until the cows come home, but I continue to believe it’s got to be a big huge elephant in the room when discussing the possibility of leaving a regular season power conference outright champ completely out. That champ is helped by the fact it’s such an exceedingly rare occurrence to even have such a team on the bubble, that the committee won’t be at all desensitized to cutting such a team, and doing so would seem monumental.
I don’t think it’s automatic, but I think in any bubble discussions, a power conference champ is getting a lot of benefit of the doubt.
Are there any Pac-12 members on the comitee this year?
I know they have to recuse themselves during these talks, but I figure they might have at least some input as to why the conference championship does mean something.
by UW11Bowdown on Feb 13, 2012 12:35 PM PST up reply actions
Nope. Don’t think advocacy would matter much anyway, I think it’s the implicit assumption that winning a power conference title has meaning and the underlying reluctance to deal with the media fallout / precedent.
There's essentially no reason to consider the Pac-12 a power conference this season
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Objectively, yes. The considerations I’m positing aren’t rational.
I know what they claim the criteria are. But if it were completely objective they’d just use a computer. When they start debating close calls, I gotta believe subconscious stuff creeps in there. I have no evidence for this. That’s just the way I think humans are.
I don't think it's completely objective
I do think that the combination of east coast bias, the RPI-coated numbers breakdown that the committee members look at when they examine a team’s profile, and the “eye test” are all unobjective in a manner which decidedly does not favor the Pac-12.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I'll be optimistically holding my breath for the next few weeks.
Every game makes me at least a little nervous. As we’ve seen plenty of times, any team can win any game. You never know if the favored team is “not gonna show up” and the underdog plays/shoots out of their minds. Utah almost beat Arizona Saturday. Sure, the Utes were shooting lights out (.750 3PT for most of the game, ended at .500) and Arizona looked like they were sleepwalking, but these things can happen. One of the title contenders almost lost to one of the worst teams in the nation because the underdog was fired up and the favorite was complacent. All that on Arizona’s home court as well.
Point is, as much as you want to predict matchups, team strengths/weaknesses, and home court, nothing is certain. I’m confident that we’ll end up in the tourney one way or another, and I believe that we deserve a berth. I’m optimistic that we’ll finisht the season at least tied for the title and put in a good conference tourney run. But it’s going to be a tense stretch, that’s for sure.
by SturdyGoldenBear on Feb 13, 2012 12:00 PM PST reply actions
Ill agree with that logic
In the Game of Trolls, you either troll or you die.
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To be fair, UCLA vs. St. John’s has Lavin coaching against UCLA, so there’s some story telling going on there.
Well, it had Steve Lavin coaching against UCLA when they drew the schedule up in October...
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
why is UCLA playing an OOC game right in the middle of Pac-12 play again?
"Let me tell you a story. I was a political prisoner for two years. The instant I was released I ran to McDonald's. I had a Big Mac and a Coke.
It was fantastic."
-Toyama Koichi, US Presidential candidate from Japan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGZqOkeYbB0
we need to win out...
…to win the championship outright.
….if we lose one game, then I guess we want AZ to beat UW, as I don’t see either of those two teams losing another game considering their easy schedule (although UW might lose to UCLA on the road)
Arizona-Washington is clearly the most important remaining game on the schedule
It’s key for the title race, but I think it’s also effectively a play-out game for the NCAAs (i.e., the winner might get in, but the loser probably won’t). I guess the loser could make up for it by winning the other four games and doing some serious damage in the conference tourney, but it’s a tough road to hoe.
Cal had better not lose to Oregon at home after winning by 17 on the road. The OSU game scares me more. Oregon doesn’t seem like it matches up well with Cal.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
At this point I wonder if the whole ‘leaving-Cal-get-replaced-by-Jorge’ thing is in Sim’s head.
The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS
I doubt it
He’s the least of Oregon’s problems. He has an eFG north of 60 percent.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
13-5 is a long shot
I don’t think we can beat both Cal and Stanford, even at home. A split is tolerable. Beating Oregon on the road would mean more to the team. The Buffs, although competitive and much improved, won’t get any respect without a quality road win.
Honestly, I (along with most CU fans), have enjoyed our little “break out” this year and hope to use it as springboard to bigger and better years to come.
Cal is too deep to not win the regular season title IMO. The tournament is another issue. Anything can happen. Any one of 4 or 5 teams could take it.
We’re not very deep, really. Washington is deep and talented, and they’ve managed to find a way to win lately, so I can see them winning out, while I can definitely see us dropping a game somewhere along the line.
"i, for one, welcome our new atomic overlords" - GoldBlooded
by atomsareenough on Feb 14, 2012 5:40 PM PST up reply actions
Again, where did this "Washington is deep" thing come from?
They are NOT deep. Not even close. They have seven relevant players (sorry, ringer from the football team, you don’t count), and the best of them is clearly playing at less than 100% capacity.
Cal and Washington are comparably shallow teams, the difference ultimately being, IMO, that Cal’s starters are better.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Well, let’s see… even without counting Sefarian-Jenkins, you’ve got Wilcox, Wroten, Gant, N’Diaye, Ross, Gaddy, Simmons, and Kemp. That’s 8. Maybe you don’t want to count Kemp, but I’d say Kemp+Sefarian-Jenkins essentially adds up to an 8th guy.
I guess that’s not 9-10, but that’s a solid 8. We’ve really just got 7 (Gut, Crabbe, Kamp, Cobbs, Kravish, Thurman, Smith) who can give you 10+ minutes a game, and two of those guys are pretty fringe contributors.
"i, for one, welcome our new atomic overlords" - GoldBlooded
by atomsareenough on Feb 16, 2012 1:57 PM PST up reply actions
Kemp and Sefarian-Jenkins are big guys who are just there to be big and have basically no skills
Every team has those. Cal has Bak Bak. Not equivalent to “depth.”
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Between the two they provide 10+ minutes a game. Minutes that the starters don’t have to play. Bak has averaged just over 4 minutes/game in conference play.
"i, for one, welcome our new atomic overlords" - GoldBlooded
by atomsareenough on Feb 18, 2012 11:24 AM PST up reply actions
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