Cal At UCLA Preview: Southern California Sweep?!?
by norcalnick on Feb 11, 2012 3:00 AM PST
in California Golden Bears Men's Basketball
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PrintIt's hard for me to approach this column rationally - I already have a history of over-the-top feelings towards UCLA basketball. And now the Bears are playing UCLA in a game they desperately need to win if they want a conference title. It's potentially the stuff of dreams, but mostly the stuff of nightmares.
You'd think that last year's Jorge explosion and this year's 2nd half rout would calm my fear/excitement/apprehension about the Bruins. You'd think that UCLA's thoroughly mediocre record over the last few years would weaken the hate. But no - the thought of a loss to UCLA still curdles the blood perhaps more than any other team in the Pac-12 (Note: We send our thanks to Johnny Dawkins for making Stanford so incredibly boring that beating them no longer seems special).
It has been pointed out that Cal has not gone 4-0 against UCLA and USC since the Pete Newell days in the 50s, which isn't surprising to me in the least. Obviously just sweeping UCLA has been a rarity - even Monty hasn't managed it in Berkeley yet. It would be a shame to miss out on the chance, but it's a secondary concern considering what's on the line for Cal.
This is the first of three scary road games left on the schedule, and Cal will need to take (at least) two of three if they want a share of the conference title. Win this one and It'll ease some of the pressure from a trip to the Rockies. Lose and we add another 100+ RPI loss to the resume (Thanks for losing to Loyola Marymount, Bruins) and the door reopens for Washington, Arizona, and company. And we'll all have to live with the knowledge that it was UCLA, the most entitled program on the west coast, that ruined things. I'm not OK with that.
Rotation
Josh Smith, 6'10'' center
Lazeric Jones, 6'0'' point guard
Travis Wear, 6'10'' forward
Jerime Anderson, 6'2'' guard
Tyler Lamb, 6'5'' guard
David Wear, 6'10'' forward
Norman Powell, 6'3'' guard
Smith and the Wear twins will get nearly every available minute at the four and five, though Brendan Lane and Anthony Stover will occasionally get a few minutes. They are collectively probably UCLA's three best offensive players, depending on your opinion of Lazeric Jones.
Jones is the best guard and gets the most minutes and shots on the team. He wasn't much of a factor in the first game this year, and hopefully either Cobbs or Gutierrez can take him out of the game again. It was Tyler Lamb who did the vast majority of the damage against Cal last time. His 26 points is double his highest scoring total since playing the Bears, so I'm not sure how much we should worry about him. Just don't give him open threes?
Tempo-Free Preview
Kenpom sez: Cal 67, UCLA 66, 53% confidence
|
Category |
Cal Rank |
UCLA Rank |
Advantage |
|
Cal eFG% vs. UCLA Def eFG% |
45 |
210 |
CC |
|
Cal Def eFG% vs. UCLA eFG% |
46 |
81 |
C |
|
Cal TO% vs. UCLA Def TO% |
42 |
134 |
C |
|
Cal Def TO% vs. UCLA TO% |
183 |
31 |
UU |
|
Cal OReb% vs. UCLA DReb% |
141 |
70 |
U |
|
Cal DReb% vs. UCLA OReb% |
16 |
133 |
CC |
|
Cal FTR vs. UCLA Opp FTR |
265 |
97 |
UU |
|
Cal Opp FTR vs. UCLA FTR |
19 |
217 |
CC |
|
Cal AdjO vs. UCLA AdjD |
43 |
84 |
C |
|
Cal AdjD vs. UCLA AdjO |
17 |
40 |
C |
Keys to the game
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Comments
As far as I’m concerned, give the guards all the shots they want. Lamb’s performance the first time was a fluke; he’s extremely unlikely to duplicate it. Anything that distracts them from pounding the ball inside is a good thing.
As you note, this is a critical game. Our resume right now is crap. It just is. It’s barely tournament worthy, and the only reason it probably remains so is — no matter what they say — I believe they’re going to have a hard time denying the P12 at least one at large. Lose this one and I think they’d have no choice, and we’d be left with a Herculean task the rest of the way.
On paper, we’re supposed to win. I don’t think they’re good at doing what they need to do to exploit their one clear advantage while I think we’re pretty good at exploiting ours. However, I just took a hard look at our body of work away from Haas. As you note, sometimes we just straight up play awful D on the road. There’s not enough of a sample size to call it a pattern, but it’s certainly a possibility.
So. We’re better than a coinflip but not at all a lock. Those feel really good if you win, but crush your soul if you lose. My instinct says that this is a less travel intensive week than the NW, and there’s too much at stake for our guys. They’ll come out focused and execute well. If we do so, we win.
But damn. This one makes me nervous.
Go Bears.
by Reef on Feb 11, 2012 3:36 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Cal, Ucla, and Stanfurd have something in common
We were all stupid about Jeremy Lin!
Lin sent his resume and a DVD of highlights to all the Ivy League schools, Cal, Stanford, and his dream school, UCLA.67 The Pac-10 schools wanted him to walk-on. Harvard and Brown were the only teams that guaranteed him a spot on their basketball teams, but Ivy League schools do not offer athletic scholarships.8 Lin chose to attend Harvard. Joe Lacob, incoming Warriors’ owner and Stanford booster, said Stanford’s failure to recruit Lin “was really stupid. The kid was right across the street. [If] you can’t recognize that, you’ve got a problem.”9 Kerry Keating, the UCLA assistant who offered Lin the opportunity to walk-on, would say in hindsight that Lin would probably have ended up starting at point guard for UCLA.10
Man crush on Aaron Rodgers, since 2003.
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I don’t know if he would have developed the same way had he came to Cal or another Pac-10 school where he would have gotten less play time than at Harvard.
Also, based on how Jerome Randle matched up with him in the summer leagues, etc. I would like to think that Randle can excel in the NBA if given the opportunity.
Lin is a great story, however. I really enjoyed watching the Lakers-Knicks game last night.
by LEastCoastBears on Feb 11, 2012 7:32 AM PST up reply actions
If he came to Cal under Braun, he probably wouldn’t be where he is today.
Further, a lot of players are fired up and motivated by disrespect. I think that part of his drive stems from being disrespected so much.
In the Game of Trolls, you either troll or you die.
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I have a bad history of Cal-UCLA games in LA.
2005 and 2007 football…
Third time’s the charm?
TROLL ON YOU BEARS. - atoms
even if it does snow, we’ve got plenty of laker championship banners to keep us warm! - raptorapocalypse
there are also some bad recent Cal-UCLA basketball games in LA
that illegal Josh Shipp shot comes to mind (and that’s right after UCLA got away with mugging Ryan Anderson)
by LEastCoastBears on Feb 11, 2012 7:33 AM PST up reply actions
Who's Going?
J.Lee, you are right? cldpc, you are? Echo are you going? I don’t think SantaCruz can… Come one, this is UCLA… the chance to sweep the LA schools in hoops for the first time in over 50 years… First place in the PAC 10… all that stuff!!!
Post here is you are going to go and let’s sit together. I’m guessing there won’t be more than 6K people in the cavernous Sports Arena so we should all be able to sit together.
GO BEARS!!!
Probably not, but its still a possibility, plans have changed a bit for the day. What time is the game?
"Remember the Maine! TO HELL WITH STANFORD!"
by CruzinBears on Feb 11, 2012 10:23 AM PST up reply actions
game is at 1
If u need a ride after the game ill be heading to the west side so can give u one.
by fiatlux on Feb 11, 2012 12:03 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I'm a definite yes.
I’d recommend a place to meet, but with my luck, it would be closed down or something of that sort
no bear, no care
by EchoOfSilence on Feb 11, 2012 10:41 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
somewhere near the arena? let me know so I can figure out a way down there
TROLL ON YOU BEARS. - atoms
even if it does snow, we’ve got plenty of laker championship banners to keep us warm! - raptorapocalypse
by cldpc on Feb 11, 2012 11:03 AM PST via Android app up reply actions
I’m meeting up with fiat at around 12:15-30. Not sure where we’re going to go, but if you want to meet up, hit him up.
TROLL ON YOU BEARS. - atoms
even if it does snow, we’ve got plenty of laker championship banners to keep us warm! - raptorapocalypse
Sounds good
no bear, no care
by EchoOfSilence on Feb 11, 2012 11:46 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
vegas says..
we’re 3 or 3.5 pt underdog. but we’ll prove ’em wrong. go bears!
It has been pointed out that Cal has not gone 4-0 against UCLA and USC since the Pete Newell days in the 50s, which isn’t surprising to me in the least.
Anyone know what year? Does CalBears.com have the year-by-year breakdown? I know wikipedia does not.
I find the three major administrative problems on a campus are sex for the students, athletics for the alumni, and parking for the faculty. -- Clark Kerr
went to the Calbears.com PDF...
Cal went 4-0 against UCLA/USC in 1958-59 (60-58@UCLA, 64-51vsUCLA/82-55@USC, 70-62vsUSC) in a true home-and-home series.
Source: http://www.calbears.com/sports/m-baskbl/archive/sect-5.pdf
I find the three major administrative problems on a campus are sex for the students, athletics for the alumni, and parking for the faculty. -- Clark Kerr
by CalBear2007 on Feb 11, 2012 12:24 PM PST up reply actions
Here's the full season
From page 141 in the media guide: http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/cal/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/1011cal_rb_mbb.pdf
by minesweeper on Feb 11, 2012 12:31 PM PST up reply actions
Wow…after the teams I assume the (x/x) is the ranking of each team. Beat St Mary’s twice. Both times, they were ranked 14/15. We were unranked, then 11. Also the national championships were 11th ranked vs 10th ranked.
I wonder who was #1 and how teams in the tourney got knocked out. Oh…I think this was during the only the regular season winner made it and there weren’t any at-large bids.
Jorge Gutierrez is "The guy with the hair plays with the flair"
by HeyAlumniGo on Feb 11, 2012 12:54 PM PST up reply actions
It’s been a few years since Uclol was really relevant in hoops, and the last few they’ve really been nothing more than a middling conference team, prone to playing like crap.
That said, I never get tired of beating them. Never.
I don’t hat Uclol, mind you. It’s their fans. And wow, there is just so much there to hat.
Being an Old Blue means embracing the "meh".
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