Wisdom of Crowds: Oregon to Face Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game
by Berkelium97 on Aug 31, 2011 3:00 AM PDT
in California Golden Bears Football
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PrintWe at CGB love numbers. We like asking how well Cal will perform against its opponents each season, we like recomputing quarterback efficiency ratings, we just like numbers. Last week we embarked on our most ambitious project yet by asking fans throughout the Pac-10 to pick winners and losers for all 54 Pac-12 games this season. You obviously were up to the task: we received over 1000 responses. Many thanks to all of you who participated, now let us enjoy the fruits of your labor: a comprehensive prediction for how the Pac-12 season will unfold.
First off, let's take a look at the predicted final standings. The Pac-12 North standings are almost exactly as the media predicted at Pac-12 Media Day. The South features a somewhat surprising tie for 1st between Utah and Arizona State. Utah, however, breaks that tie and heads to the Pac-12 Championship game. By looking only at the final standings, we get an interesting overall prediction of how things will unfold, but not much deep insight. When we take a look at the game-by-game predictions, however, then we can begin to appreciate the wisdom of the crowdsourced predictions.
| Pac-12 North | Pac-12 South |
| 1. Oregon (9-0) | 1. Utah (7-2) |
| 2. Stanford (8-1) | 1. Arizona State (7-2) |
| 3. Washington (4-5) | 3. USC* (6-3) |
| 3. Oregon State (4-5) | 4. Arizona (3-6) |
| 5. Cal (3-6) | 5. UCLA (2-7) |
| 6. Washington St (0-9) | 6. Colorado (1-8) |
*Banned from the Pac-12 Championship Game
Uncommon wisdom from the Pac-12 South: Utah has--by far--the easiest road to the Pac-12 championship game. They received a tremendous welcoming gift by the Pac-12 scheduling committee: they do not have to play Oregon or Stanford. Utah's challengers for the Pac-12 South crown were not so lucky. USC has to play both schools. Although they avoid Stanford, ASU must travel to Autzen to take on the Ducks. Basically, Utah starts the season with a one-game advantage over ASU and a two-game advantage over USC. Even better news for the Utes, their matchup against ASU is in Utah. Although Utah will probably start Pac-12 play off with a loss to USC, they should start making plans to fly up to Eugene in December.
How do things unfold for the conference's other 11 teams? Join us after the jump as we walk through Pac-12 schedule, week-by-week.
Week 2
Utah (0-0) at USC (0-0): USC (70.21 %) def. Utah (29.79%)
Week 2 observations: Sure, Utah will probably start off the Pac-12 schedule 0-1, but this may be their last Pac-12 matchup as underdogs.
Week 3
Stanford (0-0) at Arizona (0-0): Stanford (89.18%) def. Arizona (10.82%)
Week 3 observations: Arizona loses 9 times out of 10? I'll bet against that any day of the week. Look for this to be a huge test for Stanford's revamped defense.
Week 4
Cal (0-0) at Washington (0-0): Washington (69.81%) def. Cal (30.19%)
Oregon (0-0) at Arizona (0-1): Oregon (96.17%) def. Arizona (3.83%)
UCLA (0-0) at Oregon State (0-0): Oregon State (86.20%) def. UCLA (13.77%)
USC (1-0) at Arizona State (0-0): Arizona State (54.08%) def. USC (45.92%)
Week 4 observations: If Arizona State loses this matchup, they will already be at a severe disadvantage in their quest for the South title. Being nearly out of the race before the end of September will not help Dennis Erickson, who may be one more disappointing season away from unemployment.
Week 5
Arizona (0-2) at USC (1-1): USC (85.25%) def. Arizona (14.75%)
Oregon State (1-0) at Arizona State (1-0): Arizona State (86.04%) def. Oregon State (13.96%)
UCLA (0-1) at Stanford (1-0): Stanford (96.85%) def. UCLA (3.15%)
Washington (1-0) at Utah (0-1): Utah (85.44% def. Washington (14.55%)
Washington State (0-0) at Colorado (0-0): Colorado (67.26%) def. Washington State (32.74%)
Week 5 observations: Unlike its new regional rival, Colorado opens Pac-12 play with a win! Unfortunately, this may be their only conference win of the year.
Week 6
Cal (0-1) at Oregon (1-0): Oregon (95.28%) def. Cal (4.72%)
Arizona (0-3) at Oregon State (1-1): Oregon State (50.34%) def. Arizona (49.66%)
Arizona State (2-0) at Utah (1-1): Utah (66.37%) def. Arizona State (33.63%)
Colorado (1-0) at Stanford (2-0): Stanford (97.25%) def. Colorado (2.75%)
Washington State (0-1) at UCLA (0-2): UCLA (69.03%) def. Washington State (30.97%)
Week 6 observations: Stick a pitchfork in them, the Sun Devils' Pac-12 title hopes will be done on October 8th.
Week 7
USC (2-1) at Cal (0-2): USC (65.39%) def. Cal (34.61%)
Arizona State (2-1) at Oregon (2-0): Oregon (94.69%) def. Arizona State (5.31%)
Colorado (1-1) at Washington (1-1): Washington (84.17%) def. Colorado (15.8%)
Stanford (3-0) at Washington State (0-2): Stanford (95.97%) def. Washington State (4.03%)
Week 7 observations: A three-game losing streak is the last thing Jeff Tedford and the Bears need at this point in the season.
Week 8
UCLA (1-2) at Arizona (0-4): Arizona (87.61%) def. UCLA (12.39%)
Oregon (3-0) at Colorado (1-2): Oregon (95.77%) def. Colorado (4.23%)
Oregon State (2-1) at Washington State (0-3): Oregon State (64.80%) def. Washington State (35.20%)
Utah (2-1) at Cal (0-3): Utah (56.05%) def. Cal (43.95%)
Washington (2-1) at Stanford (4-0): Stanford (93.02%) def. Washington (6.98%)
Week 8 observations: Scratch that last observation, a four-game losing streak is the last thing the Bears need. If the Utes did not have a bye week the week before, this would scream trap game.
Week 9
Arizona (1-4) at Washington (2-2): Washington (58.31%) def. Arizona (41.69%)
Cal (0-4) at UCLA (1-3): Cal (66.27%) def. UCLA (33.73%)
Colorado (1-3) at Arizona State (2-2): Arizona State (90.17%) def. Colorado (9.83%)
Oregon State (3-1) at Utah (3-1): Utah (86.92%) def. Oregon State (13.08%)
Stanford (5-0) at USC (3-1): Stanford (63.52%) def. USC (36.48%)
Washington State (0-4) at Oregon (4-0): Oregon (97.64%) def. Washington State (2.36%)
Week 9 observations: Cal finally earns its first Pac-12 win! If Stanford's defense is shaky at this point in the season, they will be lit up by Barkley and the Trojans.
Week 10
USC (3-2) at Colorado (1-4): USC (85.84%) def. Colorado (14.16)
Arizona State (3-2) at UCLA (1-4): Arizona State (79.45%) def. UCLA (20.55%)
Oregon (5-0) at Washington (3-2): Oregon (86.92%) def. Washington (13.08%)
Stanford (6-0) at Oregon State (3-2): Stanford (85.15%) def. Oregon State (14.84%)
Utah (4-1) at Arizona (1-5): Arizona (51.13%) def. Utah (48.87%)
Washington State (0-5) at Cal (1-4): Cal (88.10%) def. Washington State (11.90%)
Week 10 observations: Another trap game for Utah, but will the Utes really lose this one? Not if they head into the game at 4-1 in conference play.
Week 11
Arizona (2-5) at Colorado (1-5): Arizona (66.08%) def. Colorado (33.92%)
Arizona State (4-2) at Washington State (0-6): Arizona State (83.78%) def. Washington State (16.22%)
Oregon (6-0) at Stanford (7-0): Oregon (57.03%) def. Stanford (42.97%)
Oregon State (3-3) at Cal (2-4): Cal (71.19%) def. Oregon State (28.81%)
UCLA (1-5) at Utah (4-2): Utah (90.46%) def. UCLA (9.54%)
Washington (3-3) at USC (4-2): USC (82.01%) def. Washington (17.99%)
Week 11 observations: Jeff Tedford finally gets the beaver off his back. The conference's biggest game of the year ends with Oregon defeating Stanford. Will Stanford be undefeated heading into that game? Don't bet on it.
Week 12
Arizona (3-5) at Arizona State (5-2): Arizona State (78.86%) def. Arizona (21.14%)
Cal (3-4) at Stanford (7-1): Stanford (81.12%) def. Cal (18.88%)
Colorado (1-6) at UCLA (1-6): UCLA (65.68%) def. Colorado (34.32%)
USC (5-2) at Oregon (7-0): Oregon (91.74%) def. USC (8.26%)
Utah (5-2) at Washington State (0-7): Utah (82.60%) def. Washington State (17.40%)
Washington (3-4) at Oregon State (3-4): Oregon State (55.16%) def. Washington (44.84%)
Week 12 observations: I'll call it now: Colorado's four-year losing streak on the road will come to an end when they visit UCLA.
Week 13
Cal (3-5) at Arizona State (6-2): Arizona State (78.76%) def. Cal (21.24)%
Colorado (1-7) at Utah (6-2): Utah (90.46%) def. Colorado (9.54%)
Oregon State (4-4) at Oregon: (7-0): Oregon (94.79%) def. Oregon State (5.21%)
UCLA (2-6) at USC (5-3): USC (90.76%) def. UCLA (9.24%)
Washington State (0-8) at Washington (3-5): Washington (82.89%) def. Washington State (17.11%)
Week 13 observations: Want to watch the world's most meaningless game? Check out the Cal-ASU matchup. Both playing only six days after their rivalry games, these teams will have little motivation if their seasons have not met expectations. Someone is going to sleepwalk through this game and end the season on a sour note.
Final Standings
| Pac-12 North | Pac-12 South |
| 1. Oregon (9-0) | 1. Utah (7-2) |
| 2. Stanford (8-1) | 1. Arizona State (7-2) |
| 3. Washington (4-5) | 3. USC (6-3) |
| 3. Oregon State (4-5) | 4. Arizona (3-6) |
| 5. Cal (3-6) | 5. UCLA (2-7) |
| 6. Washington St (0-9) | 6. Colorado (1-8) |
*Banned from the Pac-12 Championship Game
And there we have it, the surprisingly straightforward path to an Oregon-Utah championship game. Of course, if we add up the percentages and use that as a proxy for number of wins, we get a slightly different story...
Predicted Wins
| Pac-12 North | Pac-12 South |
| 1. Oregon (8.10) | 1. Utah (6.37) |
| 2. Stanford (7.45) | 2. Arizona State (5.90) |
| 3. Washington (3.92) | 3. USC (5.70) |
| 4. Cal (3.79) | 4. Arizona (3.47) |
| 5. Oregon State (3.32) | 5. UCLA (2.37) |
| 6. Washington St (1.68) | 6. Colorado (1.92) |
Other than Cal swapping places with Oregon State, things stay the same in the North. In the South Utah becomes the undisputed leader of the division, followed by Arizona State, then USC. How is it that ASU is expected to win 7 games using one metric and 5.9 games in another? That leads us to our next category...
For the following three teams, their predicted final records are a bit exaggerated. Consider an illustrative example: if a team has a 51% chance to win each of the nine conference games, it would finish 9-0...even though it is expected to win 4.59 games. This team's final record would overrate how good this team is. With Arizona State as the league's most overrated team, Utah's path to the Pac-12 South title becomes a little easier.
Biggest Overachiever/Most Overrated
- Arizona State
- Oregon
- Oregon State
The next set of teams are much better than their final records indicate. As a complement to our first example, consider a team who has a 49% chance to win each game. Its final record would be 0-9 even though it is expected to win 4.41 games. Do not be surprised if one of the following three teams upsets an opponent or two. Based on the win probabilities, there is only a 14.25% chance that the Cougs lose all nine games this season.
Biggest Underachiever/Most Underrated
- Washington State
- Colorado
- California
Now we move onto a bit of a comical category. These are the five most lopsided predictions of the entire schedule. Of course, I would never bet that Oregon and Stanford beat Arizona and Washington State, respectively, 24 out of 25 times on the road.
World's Most One-Sided Fights
- Washington State (2.4%) at Oregon (97.6%)
- Colorado (2.8%) at Stanford (97.2%)
- UCLA (3.1%) at Stanford (96.9%)
- Oregon (96.2%) at Arizona (3.8%)
- Stanford (96.0%) at Washington State (4.0%)
- Arizona (49.7%) at Oregon State (50.3%)
- Utah (48.9%) at Arizona (51.1%)
- USC (45.9%) at Arizona State (54.1%)
- Washington (44.8%) at Oregon State (55.2%)
- Utah (56.0%) at Cal (44.0%)
- Oregon (57.0%) at Stanford (43.0%)
- As mentioned before, Utah has the largest margin of error in the conference. By playing ASU at home and avoiding both Stanford and Oregon, they have the smoothest path to the Pac-12 Title Game. Can they turn in solid performances each week outside the MWC? If so, the Pac-12 South division title is theirs for the taking.
- Two coaches will be fired at the end of the season. The conference's biggest disappointments will be Arizona, who will finish 5-7 (3-6), UCLA, who will finish 3-9 (2-7), and Washington State, who will finish either 2-10 or 1-11. While Oregon State and Cal will both finish 6-6, neither team will fire its coach because it's hard to envision anyone doing what Mike Riley and Jeff Tedford have done in Corvallis and Berkeley, respectively. If ASU folds down the stretch, it could be curtains for Dennis Erickson. To be fired, however, he would probably have to endure 6 losses.
- The conference's new coaches will receive rough introductions to the conference. While Shaw and Stanford are expected to win 8 games, that is pretty optimistic for a team that lost its head coach, defensive coordinator, and offensive line coach, all of whom were instrumental in leading Stanford to an improbable surge back into the national spotlight. While Andrew Luck, the nation's best quarterback, still resides in Palo Alto, Stanford has too many administrative holes to fill to win 8 conference games. Jon Embree, meanwhile, is in the unenviable position of trying to return the Buffaloes to respectability. It's tough to imagine Colorado winning more than three conference games this season.
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Another Heartbreaking Work of Staggering Genius
…well played gentlemen…nice way to start a Wednesday that is only 82 effing hours from kick off…but who’s counting.
Go Bears, #3 Biggest Underachiever/Most Underrated team in the Pac 12…(should this make me happy??)
GO BEARS ANYWAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"It's on the ROOF, oh yeah, one hundred PROOF, oh yeah....."
by TKE Prytanis 79 on Aug 31, 2011 6:14 AM PDT reply actions
Is it just me, or is there no asterisk next to USC in the table?
no bear, no care
by EchoOfSilence on Aug 31, 2011 6:52 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Now it’s just you…I had to correct something and forgot to put that asterisk back in there. My USC fandom cannot be contained!
"Some people watch adult videos on their computer - I go to YouTube and watch Jahvid Best highlight clips. That’s what gets me going."- Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions head coach
I have low expectations for this season.
My only hope is that it ends the same way that it did the last time Furd had a strong armed, golden child, Heisman candidate QB.
by JoeCarr on Aug 31, 2011 7:07 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
You mean last year?
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recd for being related to David Carr.
"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark
You know who’s related to David Carr? Fresno State’s QB. You should not be reccing that right now!
by Missing Barry on Aug 31, 2011 8:25 AM PDT up reply actions
but he hella wanted to go to Cal. Like Kaeppernick
"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark
:-/ I don’t like the sound of that.
California Golden Bears: 2nd place is nothing to sneeze at!
by atomsareenough on Aug 31, 2011 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah…a huge major drawback of the 12-Pac is this divided scheduling with the CA teams all playing each other every year despite being in different divisions. Yes, I like the Cal-UCLA and Cal-USC matchups. But I really hate Utah’s schedule right now. It feels Big10 / old Pac10 style where you can get extremely lucky conference scheduling matchups while others have a harder path.
Also, I wouldn’t have mind seeing divisional games only counting in divisional standings. It would make a Washington-Stanfurd game, for example, much bigger than an Arizona-Stanfeit game. TV-wise it could even lead to a better slot for this hypothetical Washington-Stanfraid game. And we all know cash rules everything around us.
Within 5 years I’d love to see a 16-Pac conference with Surf n Turf divisions and only divisional games counting in divisional standings. Critics will say any league game should count in divisional standings, similar to what many other sports do. However, college football’s different: as my good friend and your favorite TnH says: All that matters is “and 0.” A loss, whether it be in OOC, cross-divisional, or a divisional opponent, will still be quite painful.
"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark
Looking at these conference numbers, it means we really need to sweep our non-conference schedule more than anything. If we would be lucky to win 4 conference games, picking up those 3 OOC wins (even if Colorado is technically in conference, but not really) is huge.
But man, that Presbyterian juggernaut!
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Those 3 wins and the expected victory over Wazzu will be huge for bowl-eligibility. I do think making a decent minor bowl game should be the goal for your California Golden Bears at Berkeley but playing in San Fran. That would give those younger folks the much needed practice time and recruits the opportunity to see the football team doing their thing during those key early December official visits. I think it would also turn down the gas on whatever setting one has for Coach Tedford’s seat.
"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark
I think making a bowl game is the goal for this season. So, thats 6-7 wins. Which is actually higher than last year. When I had more hope for the team. So, I dont know what Im saying!
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I think making a bowl game is the goal for this season
Reasonable indeed, but sad just the same.
So, thats 6-7 wins. Which is actually higher than last year
I’m not sure anyone else had such modest expectations last year, but it speaks to your grounding in reality Twist, a noble quality everywhere in life … except this blog that paints Cal with the utmost optimism.
And if this 6-7 wins is the mark for these past two seasons, shouldn’t we fire Tedford … like tomorrow?
And if this 6-7 wins is the mark for these past two seasons, shouldn’t we fire Tedford … like tomorrow?
Nah. Tedford can’t be fired until after at least a couple seasons with the new facilities. As instrumental as he’s been in making them happen, and given the promises he was given to have facilities years ago, he’s earned it. Plus, there’s a lot to like about all the young talent in the program right now, and if another good recruiting class comes in, well, things will be looking up.
by Missing Barry on Sep 1, 2011 8:47 AM PDT up reply actions
And they have to pay him through 2014. If he takes cal to a bcs or close with these recruiting classes in, say, 2013, which would justify another contract extension, I see him bolting for another gig.
Eh, I dunno, do you have any reason to speculate on that? He had opportunities to bolt before, and stuck with Cal, which is why I think Cal owes him a couple more years to fulfill on the promises they made him. If, his contract expires and we’re still looking at middle of the pack seasons, then I think it’s definitely time to move on.
by Missing Barry on Sep 1, 2011 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions
This is a great post, Berkelium97. Thanks for all your work and thanks to the over 1,000 people who came to vote in the polling! I was extraordinarily interested in this whole process, although I must say that if we have a 4 game losing streak, Ima gonna cry. :(! I think Cal can win at least 4 conference games.
But it looks like the outside world has lowered views on Cal this year. Looking at some of these numbers, they give opposing teams far higher %s than I would have. But hey, that’s fine. Let them underestimate Cal. Cal always seems to do better when nobody believes in them. As compared to being #1 ranked overall in October!
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carp used a header
thanks to Otis, any chance of a 4-game losing streak is impossible, I say.
Thankfully Crumpy’s column made no mention of the man I’ve already forgotten about.
"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark
Thats a really funny photo.
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diggin mccains chops
he looks real classy haha
Don't Tread on Me.
by THESeymoreBear on Aug 31, 2011 7:58 AM PDT up reply actions
I don’t think it’s a fault of Berkelium’s analysis or anything, but I don’t think I really buy into the methodology. Just picking expected winners or losers is going to skew the results. It would have been more accurate if we’d assigned percentages like we did with the Cal games.
California Golden Bears: 2nd place is nothing to sneeze at!
by atomsareenough on Aug 31, 2011 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions
If I could guarantee high levels of participation from all Pac-12 fanbases I would have gone down that route. But the win-loss system is much more user friendly, even though it does sacrifice some precision.
"Some people watch adult videos on their computer - I go to YouTube and watch Jahvid Best highlight clips. That’s what gets me going."- Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions head coach
by Berkelium97 on Aug 31, 2011 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, I understand the tension. Having more participation is fun it increases the sample size, but then how meaningful is the data? It’s a trade-off. Anyway, with the limitations you had, you did great work! Thanks for doing these analyses.
California Golden Bears: 2nd place is nothing to sneeze at!
by atomsareenough on Aug 31, 2011 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Not sure I understand how Cal has a 30% chance of winning at Washington, while Arizona has a 42% chance. Picking UDub to win 7 out of 10 times in early October up there seems overly slanted. Looking back on the recent history, I guess I understand why the masses voted how they did.
"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark
This Post is Just Like the Pick'em League
And if you go with the crowd favorite for every pick, you’ll probably correctly pick the winner 50% to 60% of the time (based on my memory from last year’s pick’em league on yahoo). So while these standings and win totals are what “should” happen, it doesn’t mean it will and in this case that actually might help the Golden Bears.
Go Bears!
Adjusting for school affiliation...
Although I participated in the survey, I can’t recall if you asked for each participant to select their school affiliation? I’m wondering what the response level was from each school and if that could be a reason for biasing some schools to have more success/failure than others.
After some deliberation, I decided not to ask
While fans of each team may be susceptible to homerism, they are also much more knowledgeable about their specific team. They likely have more accurate expectations for how the team will perform throughout the season. With this in mind, I took the bet that reasonable, knowledgeable fans would outweigh the homers.
Cal was the only school I was worried about since we had the largest share of submissions. Since we ended up finishing 3-6, it looks like any bias was squashed by a mountain of low expectations.
"Some people watch adult videos on their computer - I go to YouTube and watch Jahvid Best highlight clips. That’s what gets me going."- Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions head coach
You should have asked! It would have been interesting to play with the numbers with a variable like that.
by Missing Barry on Aug 31, 2011 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions
No worries....
It was an interesting exercise regardless. I guess you know that once you crack open a research project like this among CAL fans you immediately will get questions for more info or clarification on process etc. Thanks for the insights.
by CALiforniALUM on Aug 31, 2011 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Cal was squashed
by a mountain of low reasonable expectations.
Andy Wooldridge, andy_wooldridge@yahoo.com
BuildingTheDam.Com
Go Beavs!
Mobile Rec
Unfortunately you can’t Rec on Mobile but super cool job guys! Fascinating. I didn’t realize how bad we’re gonna be, or rather expected to be, this year. I guess despite some rather bad seasons recently I still have tremendous faith in a Tedford-coached team. It’s like Holmoe never happened.
Question: I’ve been reading up on the other P12 sites and their comments and I read things like “we match up well with Cal.” I feel like we have such a different team this year. How do people know what Cal’s identity is?
Fire Starkey. You... complete me.
by since1997 on Aug 31, 2011 9:05 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
If it makes you feel any better
Based on the win likelihoods, there is only a 24.38% chance that we lose all four.
"Some people watch adult videos on their computer - I go to YouTube and watch Jahvid Best highlight clips. That’s what gets me going."- Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions head coach
Great work!
One quick point of clarification though. In a poll with only one vote for two possible outcomes, it’s not entirely accurate to use the results to suggest that those polled believe that one team will win X% of the time.
(For instance, if you are in a game show, and given two choices, where everyone knows that ChoiceA has a 60% chance of winning, and ChoiceB has a 40% chance…100% of rationale people will pick the first choice as their expected winner, even though they understand that it will lose 40% of the time.)
I don't mean to impose...
by TheOcean on Aug 31, 2011 9:50 AM PDT reply actions 3 recs
This is a good point
For that very reason I tried to avoid relying too heavily on the percentages as proxies for outcome likelihoods. I toyed with the idea of having respondents give us win likelihoods instead of choosing winners (as we do for our predictions of Cal’s season), but I ultimately scrapped it in favor of something simpler to fill out. The results would have been quite interesting, but we probably would not have received as many responses.
"Some people watch adult videos on their computer - I go to YouTube and watch Jahvid Best highlight clips. That’s what gets me going."- Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions head coach
by Berkelium97 on Aug 31, 2011 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Yea, you made the right call, and what you did come up with is wonderful.
I have had discussions with friends about the easy schedule for Utah in the South, but after seeing the above, I don’t even think I had grasped the implications. Frankly, I think ASU needs to win at Utah or they have very little hope of passing the Utes (although the Utes could lose to USC, ASU, Arizona, Cal, and Washington if those teams show up with their A games….so who knows).
I don't mean to impose...
note to self...
…drag out your 35 year old Stat textbook and see if you can follow these guys…..sheesh
"It's on the ROOF, oh yeah, one hundred PROOF, oh yeah....."
by TKE Prytanis 79 on Aug 31, 2011 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Exactly, that’s what I was trying to get at as well. Thanks.
California Golden Bears: 2nd place is nothing to sneeze at!
by atomsareenough on Aug 31, 2011 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions
My thoughts exactly
"Ignorance is the parent of fear." ~Melville
by johnnycougar on Aug 31, 2011 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions
1 Conference win?
Hmmm, I hope all the players and coaches take CU that lightly. That would be a big boost.
Which isn’t to say we are going to light up the standings, but one conference win is not going to happen.
I don’t think people are expecting only one conference win; it’s more like you guys are only going to be favored in one conference game. You’re probably going to win at least one game that you’re not favored in though.
California Golden Bears: 2nd place is nothing to sneeze at!
by atomsareenough on Aug 31, 2011 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm sorry
I don’t buy into the “wisdom” on display here. The Ducks aren’t going to go undefeated again. Stanfurd isn’t as good as they were last year. Arizona has WAYYYYY more than a 3.83% chance of beating Oregon, Wazzu isn’t going to go winless in conference.
I think the “Predicted Wins” version is a little bit better, but still, I think it underrates the bottom of the conference and overrates the top of the conference. This seems pretty flawed to me just on a gut level.
California Golden Bears: 2nd place is nothing to sneeze at!
by atomsareenough on Aug 31, 2011 11:02 AM PDT reply actions
Do we revote just before conference play begins and we’ve gotten a look at our teams? Or is that too much work.
Too soon
We would have to vote after this weekend, since the first conference game is a week from Saturday. Since I knew we could not vote again, I tried to wait until most teams’ fall practice began to wrap up. That way we would have some vague idea of how things are progressing for some teams (or falling apart, in the case of ASU).
"Some people watch adult videos on their computer - I go to YouTube and watch Jahvid Best highlight clips. That’s what gets me going."- Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions head coach
This will have to do for now
"Some people watch adult videos on their computer - I go to YouTube and watch Jahvid Best highlight clips. That’s what gets me going."- Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions head coach
Wow
WSU will probably win 2-4 confrence games this year, I love how WSU has a 4% chance to beat Stanford when they only lost to them by 10 last year. Their team will be much improved from last year. Much improved from the very competetive ending to last year when they lost to Cal by one score, beat Oregon State and then lost to UW by one score.
If this winless confrence season is really the thinking of Pac 12 fans there are going to be some shocked people around the league.
by bliznair64@gmail.com on Sep 1, 2011 2:27 AM PDT reply actions
Read through the discussion in the comments. The method of polling is going to produce more extreme results than fans really think will happen.
by Missing Barry on Sep 1, 2011 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions
This
It’s not so much that WSU has a 4% chance to win, but that only 4% of fans believe they will win.
"Some people watch adult videos on their computer - I go to YouTube and watch Jahvid Best highlight clips. That’s what gets me going."- Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions head coach
Yeah, really all it means is that they’re not going to be favored to win in any of their games this season. It doesn’t mean they won’t win a few anyway.
California Golden Bears: 2nd place is nothing to sneeze at!
by atomsareenough on Sep 1, 2011 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions
An invitation to do more work
It seems like many of us would be curious to see a similar season forecast based on win probabilities rather than the simpler pick-the-favorite method used here. Without repolling everyone, perhaps you could get closer to the win-probability method by a simple mathematical conversion.
Historically, what proportion of games does the Favorite actually win? That number could then be plugged in as the assumed probability win percentage for each respondent’s pick. Or, to make it a little more sophisticated, perhaps you use one assumed probability constant—something like 90%—for games that the crowd widely agrees upon and another probability constant—say, 60%—for games that the crowd deems more of a toss-up. In other words, if someone said they think Oregon will beat Washington State, assume they meant that they think Oregon has a 90% chance of beating WSU, and if they said Oregon would beat Stanford, assume they think Oregon has a 60% chance of defeating the Cardinal. Or something like that.
I’m not enough of a mathematician to know if this would significantly impact the results, and I have no idea how much work this would take, but it at least would not require repolling everyone.
Go Bears!
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Golden Bears Football Schedule
| Fresno St. | Sat 09/03 | W 36 - 21 |
@
Colorado
|
Sat 09/10 | W 36 - 33 |
| Presbyterian | Sat 09/17 | W 63 - 12 |
|
@
Washington
|
Sat 09/24 | L 23 - 31 |
|
@
Oregon
|
Thu 10/06 | L 15 - 43 |
|
USC
|
Thu 10/13 | L 9 - 30 |
|
Utah
|
Sat 10/22 | W 34 - 10 |
|
@
UCLA
|
Sat 10/29 | L 14 - 31 |
|
Washington St.
|
Sat 11/05 | W 30 - 7 |
|
Oregon St.
|
Sat 11/12 | W 23 - 6 |
|
@
Stanford
|
Sat 11/19 | L 28 - 31 |
|
@
Arizona St.
|
Fri 11/25 | W 47 - 38 |
|
@
Texas
|
Wed 12/28 | L 10 - 21 |
