Help CBKWit gamble

by CBKWit on Mar 14, 2011 10:33 PM PDT

So every year I fill out a bracket, and every year RemorsefulBruinBabe makes picks based on colors and mascots and ends up crushing my bracket. This year, I'm going to try something different; I'll still fill out a half assed bracket Thursday at 8:45AM, ("I wish Jorge played hockey" on our yahoo pickem), but I'm also going to put some money down. Specifically, I'm going to bet $5 on all 36 first round games. My problem is that I've only watched about a dozen games this year, 95% of them featuring Jorge. This is where you come in: I need to know which teams to bet on. So if you know more about this year's NCAA field than I do, I would love your input on the games listed below. Bonus points if you have strong feelings for a particular over/under, moneyline, or even a PARLAY. I'll do a post detailing how much money I lost after the dust settles. Thanks for the help!

Tuesday, March 15, 2011 3:30p NCAA TOURNAMENT - OPENING ROUND - UD Arena - Dayton, OH

539

UNC Asheville

-4 (-105)

-175

129

(-115)o
(-105)u

540

Arkansas Little Rock

+4 (-115)

+155

6:00p NCAA TOURNAMENT - OPENING ROUND - UD Arena - Dayton, OH

541

UAB

+4½

+175

121

(-115)o
(-105)u

542

Clemson

-4½

-210

Wednesday, March 16, 2011 (Times shown in Pacific Daylight Time) Time Rot. Competitor Point Spread Moneyline Total Score 3:30p NCAA TOURNAMENT - OPENING ROUND - UD Arena - Dayton, OH

623

Alabama State

624

Texas San Antonio

-4

6:00p NCAA TOURNAMENT - OPENING ROUND - UD Arena - Dayton, OH

625

Va Commonwealth

+4½

626

USC

-4½

Thursday, March 17, 2011

9:40a

NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - Verizon Center - Washington, DC

721

Old Dominion

-2 (-115)

722

Butler

+2 (-105)

NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - Pepsi Center - Denver, CO

725

Morehead St.

+10 (-115)

726

Louisville

-10 (-105)

11:10a NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - McKale Center - Tucson, AZ

733

Penn State

734

Temple

11:55a NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - St Pete Times Forum - Tampa, FL (Bodog Live Betting Available)

709

Princeton

+13

710

Kentucky

-13

1:10p NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - Pepsi Center - Denver, CO (Bodog Live Betting Available)

723

Richmond

724

Vanderbilt

-2

1:40p NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - McKale Center - Tucson, AZ (Bodog Live Betting Available)

731

Northern Colorado

+15½

732

San Diego State

-15½

3:50p NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - St Pete Times Forum - Tampa, FL

711

Cal Santa Barbara

+12½

712

Florida

-12½

4:15p NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - Pepsi Center - Denver, CO

727

Wofford

+8 (-105)

728

BYU

-8 (-115)

4:20p NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - Verizon Center - Washington, DC (Bodog Live Betting Available)

715

Bucknell

+10 (-105)

716

Connecticut

-10 (-115)

4:25p NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - McKale Center - Tucson, AZ

737

Belmont

+4½ (-105)

738

Wisconsin

-4½ (-115)

6:20p NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - St Pete Times Forum - Tampa, FL (Bodog Live Betting Available)

713

Michigan State

-1½

714

UCLA

+1½

6:45p NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - Pepsi Center - Denver, CO

729

Gonzaga

+1½ (-105)

730

St John's

-1½ (-115)

6:50p NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - Verizon Center - Washington, DC

717

Missouri

-1 (-105)

718

Cincinnati

+1 (-115)

6:55p NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - McKale Center - Tucson, AZ

735

Utah State

736

Kansas State

-2

Friday, March 18, 2011 (Times shown in Pacific Daylight Time) Time Rot. Competitor Point Spread Moneyline Total Score 9:15a NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - BOK Center - Tulsa, OK (Bodog Live Betting Available)

851

Oakland

+9½

852

Texas

-9½

9:40a NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - Time Warner Cable Arena - Charlotte, NC

831

Tennessee

-1½

832

Michigan

+1½

10:40a NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - United Center - Chicago, IL

841

Akron

+13½

842

Notre Dame

-13½

11:10a NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - Quicken Loans Arena - Cleveland, OH (Bodog Live Betting Available)

835

Villanova

+1½ (-115)

836

George Mason

-1½ (-105)

11:45a NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - BOK Center - Tulsa, OK

849

Memphis

850

Arizona

-6

Game can be seen on CBS 12:10p NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - Time Warner Cable Arena - Charlotte, NC

829

Hampton

+22½

830

Duke

-22½

1:10p NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - United Center - Chicago, IL (Bodog Live Betting Available)

843

Florida State

Pick

844

Texas A&M

Pick

3:50p NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - BOK Center - Tulsa, OK

853

Boston U.

+22½

854

Kansas

-22½

4:15p NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - Time Warner Cable Arena - Charlotte, NC (Bodog Live Betting Available)

825

Long Island

+17½

826

North Carolina

-17½

4:20p NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - United Center - Chicago, IL

845

St Peter's

+14

846

Purdue

-14

4:25p NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - Quicken Loans Arena -Cleveland, OH

839

Marquette

+2 (-105)

840

Xavier

-2 (-115)

6:20p NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - McKale Center - Tucson, AZ

855

Illinois

856

UNLV

-2

6:45p NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - Time Warner Cable Arena - Charlotte, NC (Bodog Live Betting Available)

827

Georgia

+5½

828

Washington

-5½

6:55p NCAA TOURNAMENT - FIRST ROUND - Quicken Loans Arena -Cleveland, OH

837

Indiana State

+11½

838

Syracuse

-11½

The opinions expressed in a FanPost are, in every way, reflective of the opinions of every California Golden Blogs Marshawnthusiast. Moreover, they are reflective of every employee of SBNation, including Tyler "Blez" Bleszinski.

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Comments

Huh

We usually have a strong list of degenerates on this site. Where’d they all go?

Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash Kunnath on Mar 15, 2011 4:04 PM PDT reply actions

I’m not going to help CBKWit get his other hand broken by a bookie.

by paleodan on Mar 15, 2011 9:04 PM PDT up reply actions

I would think the easiest thing to make money on would be over/under. For example, in that opening round game they have 129 as the over/under, but kenpom projects a total score of 133. I’m guessing that there are a few other games that are bigger outliers when you compare vegas to the tempo free projections. Find those and you’ll probably win 60-70% of your bets.

The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS

by norcalnick on Mar 15, 2011 4:11 PM PDT reply actions

Find those and you’ll probably win 60-70% of your bets.

Good Lord. 60-70%? You could probably retire in a year or two if you had a constant success rate like that.

Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash Kunnath on Mar 15, 2011 10:51 PM PDT up reply actions

Keeping in mind that I know zilch about gambling, so take anything I say with a gigantic grain of salt.

The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS

by norcalnick on Mar 16, 2011 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions

I was thinking about Ken Pom – it seems like the first round of the ncaa tournament might cause problems for his algorithm because it’s matching up a bunch of teams that haven’t played each other and haven’t played many similar opponents. I would really trust his models for the last half of conference play, but it seems they would be less reliable for this weekend’s games. Or am I not interpreting his work correctly?

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by CBKWit on Mar 15, 2011 11:12 PM PDT up reply actions

That’s probably fair. I think the pace data should stay similar (maybe teams play slower in big games? Dunno) but predicting the effectiveness of offenses might be iffier.

The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS

by norcalnick on Mar 16, 2011 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions

You don’t want my gambling advice, trust me.

Today's the day the California Golden Bears have their picnic.

by zoonews on Mar 15, 2011 9:30 PM PDT reply actions

Anybody have any opinions for tomorrow's games?

3:30p
NCAA TOURNAMENT – OPENING ROUND – UD Arena – Dayton, OH

Alabama State

+3½ (-115)

+145

Texas San Antonio

-3½ (-105)

-165

(-110)o
(-110)u

6:00p
NCAA TOURNAMENT – OPENING ROUND – UD Arena – Dayton, OH

Va Commonwealth

+4½

+170

USC

-4½

-200

(-115)o
(-105)u

Forgot to bet on today’s games. $10 I didn’t lose! Norcalnick was right, should have taken the over.

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by CBKWit on Mar 15, 2011 11:23 PM PDT reply actions

I put

$5 SC -4, $5 TxSA -3. In Ken Pom we trust.

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by CBKWit on Mar 16, 2011 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions

Too bad USC’s seven man rotation wasn’t up to the challenge tonight.

Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash Kunnath on Mar 17, 2011 1:59 AM PDT up reply actions

yeah

the beauty of betting on sc, though, is that you’re happy either way. If they win, great, you win your bet. If they lose, great, usc losing is always to be celebrated. I’m just glad that they didn’t win by 3, that would have been extremely irritating.

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by CBKWit on Mar 17, 2011 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions

We don’t bet on U$C. We don’t want any part of their victories.

WE ARE ZOONEWS

by zoonews on Mar 17, 2011 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions

Results thus far:

Tuesday: forgot to bet

Wednesday: 1-1 (lost 24 cents)

Thursday: 13-8-2 (Win-Loss-Push) (made $26.48)

High and low for today were from the same game – I took BYU to cover, and Wofford hit a meaningless three with one second left to cut the BYU lead to 8. The line was 8.5. Fortunately, I bought half a point to make the line -8 because I wasn’t completely trusting of BYU without their sex crazed center, so the Wofford three took me from win to push, not win to loss.

I bet every game, 5 over/unders, and two parlays. I took the over in every point spread (Ken Pom thinks all of these games will be higher scoring than the house does) and went 3-1-1 for those. The parlays were bets I also made individually; they were the lines most divergent from Ken Pom’s predictions. I parlayed the over for MSU/UCLA & for Cinci/Mizzou, which hit, and Butler +2.5 & Utah State +2.5, which missed. Ironically, Utah State also shot a last second three which would have cut the lead from 5 to 2, but it missed. That one shot would have more than doubled my day’s winnings. Two last second three pointers involving schools located in Utah, two different results, both resulting in gambling pain: maybe there’s something to that LDS church.

Total thus far: up $26.24

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by CBKWit on Mar 17, 2011 11:04 PM PDT reply actions

tomorrow: I experiment with round robins

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by CBKWit on Mar 17, 2011 11:05 PM PDT up reply actions

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