This Week In The Pac-12: How Bad Is The State Of Basketball?
by norcalnick on Dec 12, 2011 10:30 AM PST
in California Golden Bears Men's Basketball
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PrintThings are bad for Pac-12 Basketball right now - we've been talking about it for a few weeks now. But exactly how bad is it? Well, what do the ratings systems say? Jeff Sagarin says that the Pac-12 is the 8th best conference in the nation, behind the other 5 BCS conferences, the Mountain West and the Atlantic 10. Ken Pomeroy ($) still has the Pac-12 6th, but his ratings still include some input from pre-season projections that probably didn't have the conference struggling to badly. Real Time RPI has the Pac-12 9th, behind with the Missouri Valley ahead and the West Coast Conference creeping up behind!
The ratings systems agree - the Pac-12 is generally on par with the best mid-major conferences in the country. The types of conferences that typically get 2, maybe 3 bids per year. Boy do I feel stupid for predicting that five Pac-12 teams would go dancing in March!
What happened?!? Well, to start with, it seems nearly every team has had massive personnel issues caused by injuries, suspensions and transfers. But I'm getting ahead of myself. Let's take a team-by-team look at why exactly nearly every team in the conference has failed to impress, starting with the worst team in the conference and working back up.
Utah
Various Rankings: RPI - 307 ; Kenpom - 311 ; Sagarin - 332
Worst loss: Montana St. is probably the worst team the Utes lost too, but at least that game was close. In this case, a 30 point home defeat to Cal State Fullerton takes the cake
Best win: N/A
What went wrong? Gee, where do you start? Ken Pomeroy wrote an article about the Utes threatening to fail to win a single D1 game this season:
In the spring, Krystko lost the services of Will Clyburn (Iowa State), Shawn Glover (Oral Roberts), and J.J. O’Brien (San Diego State), who all decided to transfer after the coaching change. In addition, shot-blocker extraordinaire David Foster broke his foot in the Utes’ exhibition loss to Adams State and may miss the season. The transfers left Krystkowiak to fill his rosters with unheralded freshmen and junior college recruits after he arrived. That, combined with Foster’s injury, has been a disastrous formula.
Yikes.
UCLA
Various Rankings: RPI - 177 ; Kenpom - 121 ; Sagarin - 223
Worst loss: An 11 point home loss to Loyola Marymount
Best win: A four point win over Pennsylvania at home. You read that right.
What went wrong? Where should we start? The pre-season hope was for adequate guard play, but that hasn't remotely been the case. Reeves Nelson was suspended, reinstated, missed a flight, suspended, then kicked off the team. Josh Smith had every reason to work hard but came into the season in worse shape than last year. And the Wear twins aren't a magic panacea.
Somebody needs to write a book explaining how a coach that rebuilt a broken team and took it to three straight Final Fours could then so utterly mismanage a program with every natural advantage you could hope for. I can't begin to explain it.
Will it get better? Only if you think getting rid of Nelson is an 'addition by subtraction type of situation, which wouldn't totally shock me at this point.
USC
Various Rankings: RPI - 178 ; Kenpom - 119 ; Sagarin - 151
Worst loss: Cal Poly
Best win: South Carolina
What went wrong? Kevin O'Neill's bizarre roster construction leaves little room for any of the random events that typical strike teams, so Jio Fontan's injury turned USC from 'potentially frisky' to 'dead in the water.' Their offense is even more of an affront to basketball than usual. Poor Maurice Jones is 4th in the country in minutes, and will stay around that high until his legs fall off.
Will it get better? Not until O'Neill is either fired or can recruit a team with more depth than a kiddie pool.
Arizona St.
Various Rankings: RPI - 140 ; Kenpom - 118 ; Sagarin - 159
Worst loss: 6 point home loss to Pepperdine
Best win: 3 point road win over Tulsa
What went wrong? Well, losing hyped recruit Jahii Carson to academics hurts pretty badly. Without him Arizona St.'s offense has been dysfunctional, with an assist-to-turnover ratio of .628, 324th in the nation. If I were a Sun Devil fan, I might be wondering if Herb Sendek is capable of putting together a halfway decent offense without a player like James Harden around to make him look good.
Will it get better? Sendek has recruited well enough, and was respected enough as a coach, that I really thought ASU would be better than what they are right now. Without Carson, I don't think things get much better until next year.
Colorado
Various Rankings: RPI - 119 ; Kenpom - 138 ; Sagarin - 134
Worst loss: 11 point home loss to Wyoming
Best win: 2 point home win over Georgia
What went wrong? Actually, nothing really so far. Colorado lost a ton of talent and they are doing about as well as anybody expected they might do. Some freshmen have shown solid abilities and Andre Roberson has been a rebounding machine. In a rebuilding year Tad Boyle has found pieces to rebuild with.
Will it get better? Absolutely. I'm 100% sure Boyle can recruit, and I'm 95% sure he can coach.
Oregon
Various Rankings: RPI - 61 ; Kenpom - 86 ; Sagarin - 78
Worst loss: Vanderbilt doesn't count as a bad loss, but it goes here anyway, I suppose.
Best win: 7 point road win over Nebraska.
What went wrong? There haven't been any problems on the court, really - the Ducks have won and lost all of the games you'd expect them to win or lose. But two players recruited by Dana Altman have elected to leave the team, putting a serious damper on what seemed to be a promising team in Eugene. It's unclear exactly how badly losing Jabari Brown and Bruce Barron will impact Oregon this year. Barron wasn't likely to see much time on the court but Brown might have ended up the Pac-12 freshman of the year.
Will it get better? Well, transfer Devoe Joesph scored 18 in his debut after becoming eligible in Oregon's last game, and the Ducks have avoided stubbing their toe like most other conference teams. But there are suddenly serious doubts about Altman's roster management. He's quickly re-energized Oregon basketball with some extremely aggressive talent acquisition, but if the players don't stay it won't do him much good.
Washington St.
Various Rankings: RPI - 176 ; Kenpom - 67 ; Sagarin - 88
Worst loss: 1 point neutral court loss to UC Riverside
Best win: 2 point road win over Idaho
What went wrong? Nothing unexpected - nobody expects miracles when you lose a player like Klay Thompson. Actually, WSU has perhaps outperformed expectations, with only one 'bad' loss and a number of solid performances against better teams.
Will it get better? Early returns are positive. Perhaps Ken Bone will succeed after playing with mostly Bennett-ball players for the last few years?
Oregon St.
Various Rankings: RPI - 133 ; Kenpom - 89 ; Sagarin - 98
Worst loss: 14 point home loss to Idaho
Best win: 5 point overtime win over Texas, which still might be the single best win in the conference.
What went wrong? Prior to the loss to Idaho, nothing. The slow down, 1-3-1 zone days appear to be over and Craig Robinson was finally avoiding some of the horrible non-con losses that seemed to occur each year in Corvallis. The loss to Idaho isn't nearly as bad as some of the losses the Beavers have suffered in the past, but the margin at home does temper the idea that Oregon St. has finally rounded the corner.
Will it get better? This is a golden opportunity for the Beavers. The conference is clearly down, and one great player like Jared Cunningham (a potential conference player-of-the-candidate) could push OSU up the standings.
Washington
Various Rankings: RPI - 78 ; Kenpom - 42 ; Sagarin - 76
Worst loss: 3 point overtime road loss to Nevada
Best win: Georgia State. Seriously.
What went wrong? Washington is the perfect example of why the Pac-12 has such a weak national profile. They play three legit teams (St. Louis, Duke, Marquette), play them mostly close, but lose all three. Add in one close loss to Nevada and you have a team that has a ton of talent but with zero impressive wins. Kenpom appreciates that they blow out the bad teams and play the good teams close, but that doesn't mean much in the RPI. Guess which ratings system the selection committee uses more? Ugh.
Will it get better? Probably, but the damage has been done. Right now Tony Wroten is shooting waaaay to much. Awesome players like Terrance Ross and C.J. Wilcox should be taking control of the ball, but Wroten is 3rd in the country in usage percentage. He's talented enough that controlling the ball might not be a bad thing in the future, but for now he's still a freshman with more talented and/or experienced teammates.
Arizona
Various Rankings: RPI - 37 ; Kenpom - 40 ; Sagarin - 59
Worst loss: 4 point home loss to San Diego St.
Best win: 16 point home win over Clemson
What went wrong? Like so many other conference teams, Arizona has been bit by the suspension/transfer bug. Freshman center Sidiki Johnson has elected to leave the program and transfer (what is it with Wildcats from New York?!), and freshman point guard Josiah Turner was recently suspended for Arizona's game vs. Florida. Turner came back and played well in Arizona's win over Clemson, so it's probably not a big deal, right?
Will it get better? A win over Gonzaga would go a long way, but Arizona should feel pretty great about their long term prospects. Integrating a bunch of mega-recruits can be a challenge, but Sean Miller is too good coach to not get it right eventually. Just like Ben How . . . oh, that's right. This is kinda awkward.
California
Various Rankings: RPI - 65 ; Kenpom - 20 ; Sagarin - 35
Worst loss: 39 point loss to Missouri
Best win: 21 point home win over Denver
What went wrong? A match-up disaster with Missouri was one thing, but getting your best rebounder and interior defender suspended just prior to an important resume building road game was worse. With Solomon in the lineup Cal probably beats San Diego St., but the Bears didn't have him and they didn't win. Now a win over UNLV is hugely important to establish a best win before conference play begins.
Will it get better? Ask after that game in Las Vegas.
Stanford
Various Rankings: RPI - 36 ; Kenpom - 15 ; Sagarin - 17
Worst loss: n/a
Best win: An easy 15 point win over Oklahoma St.
What went wrong? So far, nothing, unless blowing a lead against a really good Syracuse team counts. Stupid Stanford.
Will it get better? God I hope not.
So there you have it. Five teams with consensus rankings above 100, just one team with a consensus top 50 ranking, six teams that lost a player temporarily or permanently because of grades, rules violations or other disputes, and eight or nine teams with a 'best win' that would make a Missouri Valley team blush.
The Pac-12 has just over two weeks until conference play begins, which means very few chances to meaningfully change resumes and perceptions. I'm not optimistic.
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we're not a one bid league
but we’re likely a two bid league, with three as our ceiling. Just not enough good wins and too many bad losses.
--Dave
Addicted to Quack, your friendly, neighborhood Oregon Ducks blog
by David Piper on Dec 12, 2011 10:32 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
I believe only Cal, Furd, Arizona and UW have a realistic shot at earning bids at this point. But they’ll have to piledrive the rest of the Pac-12.
by Avinash Kunnath on Dec 13, 2011 2:14 AM PST up reply actions
Oregon looks credible
Virginia would be a good chip, and their non-conf RPI will likely be in the 50s if they win out. Frankly, their resume (pending that game) looks a lot better than Washington’s does right now— Washington will have no road/neutral nonconference wins.
I suppose there’s the ever-debated “eye test” in Washington’s favor, but I don’t know how many times you can go to the “looked good in a loss” well. At some point you have to actually, you know, beat a good team.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I’m thinking teams that can also win the conference championship. UW is probably good enough to win three games in three nights again.
by Avinash Kunnath on Dec 13, 2011 9:18 PM PST up reply actions
The Cougs blew out the same Santa Clara squad that took them to overtime last season
I’d say a 93-55 win at home is more impressive then a 2-point buzzer beater on the road
Attractive, Intelligent, Smart A**
by Neil Vincent Roberts on Dec 12, 2011 11:11 AM PST reply actions
Yeah, that's true
I tried to remember to pay attention to margin of victory, but I missed on Wazzu and just picked the win over the highest rated team in the various computer standings
The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS
by norcalnick on Dec 12, 2011 12:04 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
It's all good
at least the Idaho game was exciting. Sounds like the Santa Clara game was a snoozer.
Good article by the way (can’t believe I forgot to post that in my original comment, my bad)
Attractive, Intelligent, Smart A**
by Neil Vincent Roberts on Dec 12, 2011 12:12 PM PST up reply actions
The only good thing to come out of the Pac's general suckiness?
Watching the spontaneous combustion and heads exploding over at BN
by FromCtoShining(Blue)C on Dec 12, 2011 2:43 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Those RPI numbers are painful
Eye-popping, really. 5 teams in the top 100? Seriously? I thought it was bad, but I didn’t realize just how bad it was. OSU’s numbers, in particular, are disappointing (though they accurately reflect the team’s pathetic scheduling).
So many teams have such poor records (influencing opponents’ winning percentages) and scheduled so horribly (influencing opponents’ opponents’ winning percentages) that even getting into conference play isn’t likely to bring RPIs up. It might actually drag them down for the few teams that have good marks to date. Not to beat a didactic dead horse, but Utah and Colorado are not helping.
Right now I’m not sure ANY team has a viable at-large resume. Stanford is close, as long as there are no toe stubs against the remaining non-con opponents (USD, Bethune-Cookman, Butler, all at home). Arizona is credible if they beat Gonzaga in a quasi-road game, but how many of us are expecting that to happen? Ditto with Cal (need to win out, not likely to do so). Oregon might have a case if it beats Virginia and the other trash on the schedule. USC’s hopes died with the loss to New Mexico. Washington, can’t see it. Craig Robinson scheduled a potential Oregon State tournament team right out of contention. UCLA could theoretically end up 8-5 in nonconference with wins over Richmond and St. John’s, which isn’t THAT bad, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
So, a lot of “maybe we’ll talk if they win out,” and little else.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Colorado seems middle-of-the-PAC this year. It’s Utah that’s really an embarrassment this year.
"i, for one, welcome our new atomic overlords" - GoldBlooded
by atomsareenough on Dec 13, 2011 11:16 AM PST up reply actions
The problem is that the Pac-12 is so bad that a team like Colorado actually is ‘middle-of-the-PAC.’ If they conference were any good they’d be near or at the bottom in a clear rebuilding year.
The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS
Right, it's not like beating Colorado is going to carry any water for anyone who does it
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Sure, but it’s the traditional powers sucking that is holding the conference back, not CU, that’s all I’m saying.
"i, for one, welcome our new atomic overlords" - GoldBlooded
by atomsareenough on Dec 13, 2011 4:21 PM PST up reply actions
I'm not sure what you mean by "it's the traditional powers sucking that is holding the conference back"
The committee doesn’t really care whether a team is a “traditional power” or not. They don’t have time to.
And as far as the computer numbers go, Colorado sucking has just as much of an impact as UCLA sucking does.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
As far as the people go they don’t.
"i, for one, welcome our new atomic overlords" - GoldBlooded
by atomsareenough on Dec 13, 2011 6:59 PM PST up reply actions
What "people"?
The selection committee? Like I said— they don’t have time for that kind of crap. The polls? Absolutely, but thankfully, in basketball, they don’t mean jack diddly.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Two other things:
First, as to ASU: I think their good stretch had something to do with Harden, but I think it had a lot more to do with Derek Glasser. You note the terrible A/TO ratio; Glasser was an extremely reliable point guard and left a gaping hole at the position when he graduated. While not flashy, he was extremely efficient— sort of a lower-middle-class man’s Jordan Taylor.
Second, as to WSU: I remain very skeptical of Bone. 40% of his minutes are still being used by the supposedly “out of system” Bennett players (Marcus Capers, Charlie Enquist, Brock Motum, and depending on whether you want to count him, Patrick Simon) and that list also happens to read like “a list of the WSU players who are actually efficient with the basketball.” Bone’s “own guys” are ballhogs like Faisal Aden and Reggie Moore. Seems to me like his poor coaching and recruiting is actually still being propped up, to some degree, by the legacy guys from Bennett’s tenure.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Aden has been out for the last four games (all wins) with concussion like symptoms.
as for Reggie Moore, he seems to be passing quite a bit this season. That being said some of his passes are boneheaded and lead to turnovers (the latest ailment to afflict Cougar basketball). As for Bone’s recruiting, you have Lacy, Ladd and Shelton (two freshmen and a first year JC transfer) who (at times) have lit up the scoreboard and have looked absolutely brilliant. While at other times, they look like they are playing their first season of D1 basketball (which they are).
Attractive, Intelligent, Smart A**
by Neil Vincent Roberts on Dec 13, 2011 11:02 AM PST up reply actions
The guys you mention would be riding the bench at strong programs
None were given any play by national scouts coming in. Bone has yet to land a four-star recruit per Scout.com or ESPN. Rivals (which tends to be a bit more star-happy) thinks he finally got one in Demarquise Johnson, but he’s not going to show up until next year.
It’s one thing to try to win with guys who are not NBA lottery picks (which is eminently possible, as proved time and again by guys like Bo Ryan and, yes, Tony Bennett). It’s something else to try to win with mid-major type talent, which is what Bone is getting. And don’t tell me that WSU just can’t ever recruit good prospects— he’s being severely outrecruited by teams like Baylor (also middle of nowhere) and Stanford (onerous academic requirements). On top of that, he’s done little, if anything, to develop players or coach them up.
The authors at CougCenter are very articulate and smart, and usually good analysts, but their view of WSU’s prospects/recruiting is severely tainted by homerism and is by far the weakest part of that site. You have to take it with more than a pinch of salt.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I do feel obligated to point out that Klay Thompson was a two-star coming out of high school
And the whole recruiting thing of “finding hidden gems” has been part of the Cougar ethos for a long, long time. At least as long as I have been a live.
Oh and about that mid-major talent, I’d like to introduce you to Que Johnson
Attractive, Intelligent, Smart A**
by Neil Vincent Roberts on Dec 13, 2011 3:44 PM PST up reply actions
I have no idea where you're getting this from, but it's patently false
Thompson was a four-star prospect at Scout and Rivals, and while ESPN was not doing stars at the time, he got a “95” on their numeric scale, which is not only in four-star territory, it blows away the best grade any of Bone’s guys have gotten (a 91). He was ranked #53 nationally by ESPN, which given that 50 or so American guys a year get drafted, means he was viewed entering college as already a fringe NBA-type talent.
Your last line sounds combative, so let’s just get one thing out of the way: this is not some “our players are better than your players” bullshit. I’ve been critical, at times harshly so, of Montgomery’s recruiting as well. This year’s class was thoroughly disappointing— Cal whiffed almost completely on one of the best Bay Area classes in years, ended up with an unfilled scholarship, and that’s after spending one very early on a totally speculative prospect with about an 80% chance of never doing anything and a nearly 100% chance of redshirting next year— though in fairness to Montgomery, his mind was probably elsewhere for much of the summer.
I want the conference to achieve a higher national profile. It’s not going to do that if poorly-led teams like WSU drag it down with mediocre programs and mediocre results. That, not some chest-thumping nonsense, is my dog in this hunt.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Combative is not the tone I was looking for.
My apologies that it came off of that way.
And that sucks about the situation Montgomery was in, that truly and honestly sucks. It doesn’t help recruiting for anybody when the entire conference is down.
As for Ken Bone’s coaching ability, I respectfully disagree. I think he is a pretty good coach and needs to cycle more of his high school recruits through the system.
Attractive, Intelligent, Smart A**
by Neil Vincent Roberts on Dec 13, 2011 6:42 PM PST up reply actions
Montgomery's fine now, or seems to be, thank heavens
Probably just as well that we didn’t hear about it until after the fact, as it saved us a heck of a lot of worrying.
There’s nothing wrong with being combative if someone is arguing in bad faith. My point is just that, well, I’m not. I want WSU to do well almost as much as the CougCenter guys do. The brief spell of awesome under Tony Bennett did huge things for the depth of the league— it’s not a coincidence that those years were the first time in Pac-10 history that the conference had ever gotten six NCAA tournament bids.
As to Bone? It’s largely subjective. I’ve presented what facts I can (which isn’t much), so if you’re still unconvinced, yeah, it’s “agree to disagree” time.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I am curious
how do you guys think Cal will far in the inaugural season of the Pac-12?
Attractive, Intelligent, Smart A**
by Neil Vincent Roberts on Dec 13, 2011 11:03 AM PST reply actions
We think we can win!
"i, for one, welcome our new atomic overlords" - GoldBlooded
by atomsareenough on Dec 13, 2011 11:15 AM PST up reply actions
Even though I risk falling in...
I don’t doubt you that Cal can win it
Attractive, Intelligent, Smart A**
by Neil Vincent Roberts on Dec 13, 2011 12:43 PM PST up reply actions
Far
fare same diff
Attractive, Intelligent, Smart A**
by Neil Vincent Roberts on Dec 13, 2011 12:43 PM PST up reply actions
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