Golden Nuggets: Cal at Oregon Score Predictions

by Berkelium97 on Oct 5, 2011 10:45 AM PDT in Golden Nuggets

Since we're playing our first ranked team of the year, everyone and their uncles have score predictions this week (of course, they're all in favor of Oregon).

ESPN's Accuscore simulation has Oregon winning, on average, 41-21. The Bears won 12.6% of the simulated games. The Duck defense forces 2 turnovers and notches 3.4 sacks while the Bears' D forces 2 turnovers and registers 4.2 sacks. LaMichael James averages 102 yards and a score while Darron Thomas passes for 221 yards and 2 TDs. Zach Maynard passes for 178 yards with 1TD and 1 interception, while Isi Sofele and C.J. Anderson combine for 99yards and a score. There is one bright spot, though: Yarnway miraculously returns from his season-ending surgery and picks up 10 yards.
WhatIfSports' simulations have the Ducks winning 35-18. The Bears notched the upset in only 5% of the simulated games. While the Cal defense holds the running game to only 136 yards, Thomas goes Masoli '09 on us and passes for 308 yards. The Cal offense generates 110 rushing yards while Maynard passes for 222.
CBS's experts unanimously pick Oregon to win (in fact, they were unanimous in 16 of this week's 21 picks)
Phil Steele's simulations have the Ducks winning, on average, 47 to 24. The Bears pass for 215 and run for 132 while the Ducks' balanced attack produces 258 rushing yards and 255 passing yards.
Ted Miller predicts 44-17 Oregon victory.
Rivals' Cal and Oregon writers predict Oregon victories of 48-24 and 49-27, respectively.

After the jump the Ducks are favored by 24, LaMichael James will return punts against Cal, and Utah's QB may miss the Cal-Utah game.

Football

The Ducks are 24-point favorites over the Bears. Would you bet that Cal will cover?
The Bears stay at 7th in Ted Miller's Pac-12 power rankings.
The bowl projection also remains the same: a Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. The more general ESPN bowl projections have Cal playing Virginia Tech at the Sun Bowl or TCU in Vegas. Those would be some entertaining matchups.
Cecil Whiteside and Chris McCain have become great friends since meeting in the spring. This has helped build a tremendous amount of trust between the two when they are on the playing field; each trusts the other to do his job. They are expected to continue to see more playing time this week. Against UW, they received the most snaps our of all the OLBs.
Chip Kelly and some of his players talk about the difficulty in preparing for the complexity of Cal's offense. A far cry from the one-dimensional offense the Ducks saw last season, the Bears incorporate pro-style plays, spread elements, pistol, and even some zone read.
Having been mostly shut down by the Bears last season, the Oregon offense may face a stiff challenge on Thursday.
As if you were not already concerned enough about special teams: LaMichael James is now returning punts for the Ducks.
JO reports from Sunday's practice. Dasarte Yarnway is out for the season (again) after undergoing a procedure to repair his MCL and meniscus.
Gorcey has some notes from Monday's practice. The Bears may or may not being using their new white helmets during practice this week. Following Tedford and Pendergast's comments last week, Stefan McClure is more involved with the defensive gameplan.
Tuesday's practice was completely closed to the media. He did mention that he believes the team is ready to handle the auditory assault from the Autzen audience.
Utah quarterback Jordan Wynn will miss several weeks with a shoulder injury. He will likely miss the matchup against the Bears, barring a seemingly inevitable full-recovery the night before the game.
JO has another article on the fake injuries, just in case you're dying to read about it again.
Cal athletes are buying more scooters than ever to go up the hill to go to practice. Giorgio is particularly fond of his Vespa, which he has named "Maria."

Basketball

Cal is one of Athlon's three possible surprise teams this season. Athlon picked the Bears to finish second in the conference this season, behind UCLA.
Jorge Gutierrez and Allen Crabbe are on the watch list for the Wooden Award, which is given annually to the nation's top player.
After the Bears surprised many with their solid play last season, they're not going to creep up on anyone this year.
Kevin Johnson was inducted into the Bay Area Sports Hall of Fame.
The new-look women's team led by Coach Gottlieb begins practice this week.

Lacrosse

Coach Ginger Miles updated her blog on the Cal Athletics website. She discussed the conference opener against Stanford and a collection of rule changes which were implemented this season.

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Comments

Cal 31 – 24 Oregon my prediction.
Same as 2007. Lets go.

by neodarksaver on Oct 5, 2011 11:07 AM PDT reply actions

I admire your optimism!

Sadly, I don’t share it.

Being an Old Blue means never accepting success.

by SoCal Oski on Oct 5, 2011 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions

I agree with your prediction!

For being a Cal football fan is expecting to win and then getting your heart ripped out of your chest!
You won’t be needing this anymore!

by Anonymous IV at Mono Lake on Oct 5, 2011 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs

kalima! kalima!

by j.lee on Oct 5, 2011 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions

The Indians around here have got to love the shout-out.

Am I known as Cugel the Clever for nothing?

by Cugel on Oct 5, 2011 8:19 PM PDT up reply actions

Oregon 38 to Cal 24. That’s the oddsmaker in me speaking. A pick or two, and great D here and there, and we win 31-24 like above. Reverse, and we lose 45 to 17.

by Calbear91 on Oct 5, 2011 11:26 AM PDT reply actions

Spent the last week and a half feeling doom, but F it, this game is winnable. Go bears.

by hunger on Oct 5, 2011 11:27 AM PDT reply actions

With 4 senior starters in Jordan, Hill, Mohamed, and Conte are gone and Kendricks is no longer on the outside, I don’t think Cal’s defensive personnel will allow them to put on a performance and run a gameplan like last year.

I’m thinking this is a game where Cal will need to score around 35 points and hold Oregon under that to win. Taking care of the pigskin and not giving the Ducks the extra possessions is crucial along with winning the field position battle.

by Cali49a on Oct 5, 2011 11:27 AM PDT reply actions

Wait wait wait, we have to score more than the opponent and hold them to less than we score now?!?!!? When did this rule come into play?!?! Eff’n NCAA….

"Remember the Maine! TO HELL WITH STANFORD!"

by CruzinBears on Oct 5, 2011 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions

I knew I was going to get a reply like this

but I’m too pressed for time to explain the reasoning behind selecting 35 and how the other things I added in goes way beyond the saying “score more points than the other team to win.”

by Cali49a on Oct 5, 2011 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions

Agreed senior leadership last year was extremely important

I fear that our young lb crew might not stay as disciplined. Hopefully, they’ll prove me wrong!

by cal85 on Oct 5, 2011 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions

I fear the only way we win thsi game is if we get multiple turn overs from Oregon and dont turn the ball over. Their offense is so explosive.

Plus, we need somethign similar to Big Game 2009 where we have like 4 8 minute long drives. The only way to stop their O is to keep it off of the field.

Also, no special teams miscues. We would won that game last year without special teams miscues (missed kick; kick return for TD).

The internet's most successful troll!
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by TwistNHook on Oct 5, 2011 11:29 AM PDT reply actions

My point prediction:

Cal wins 2-0 on a safety when Darron Thomas inexplicably runs out the back of the end zone.

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by TwistNHook on Oct 5, 2011 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions

I like that score!

by Anonymous IV at Mono Lake on Oct 5, 2011 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions

Sorry, Twist, you're wrong.

Cal will indeed win, but only by a score of 2 to 1. Oregon’s attempt to take the lead with a late field goal will fall short in end zone, where an exuberant Bear will pick up the ball and run with it in celebration out the back toward the Cal fans. Inexplicably, Oregon is awarded a Canadian rouge/single, simultaneously demonstrating that we still haven’t seen the worst from either Pac-12 officials or Cal special teams. But at least this time, such mistakes don’t cost us the game.

Go Bears!

by California Pete on Oct 5, 2011 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions

I stand corrected!

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by TwistNHook on Oct 5, 2011 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions

DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!!

Now that that is out of the way, I think we have a shot if we can execute like we did last year. That said, we need to be more efficient in the red zone; i.e. only allowing Forza Italia to see the field for PATs. Offensively, if we protect the ball and Maynard gets decent Oline play, we should be able to go after their secondary and torch them (provided Harris doesn’t see more action this game). Defensively, we need to be disciplined and keep LMJ in check and have Thomas have to beat us through the air, which scares the crap out of me given our penchant for giving up big pass plays. And considering how atrocious their receiving corp is, I could still see us giving up the big play downfield. (sigh)

In the end, our execution will make or break us. That and the crowd at Autzen.

Oregon 31
Cal 24

by golden oso on Oct 5, 2011 11:59 AM PDT reply actions

DOOOOOOM!

I don’t see much of an improvement happening after a short bye week. The secondary is going to play soft, our db’s are going to get called for PI’s, and our green-ish outside linebackers are going to overpursue and have difficulty tackling faster players. Our d line may be ok, but Oregon’s O line has been coached so well that holes will get opened. Oregon will likely put 30+ points on us, and if they have a passing game going, 45+.

Oh boy. Now, if we only had a decent O line and running back. Wouldn’t it have been something if Vereen decided to stay this year? We’d have 2 decent wideouts (though catching balls on the numbers has been a problem), a mobile QB with a decent (albeit INT prone) arm, AND an all-purpose back who can block and break tackles with speed. But we don’t. I see us putting up 20 points max, because we can’t seem to convert redzones into TD’s.

Tedford will continue to play conservatively, running wildcats with Sofele into the wall. It’ll be 3rd and long, with circus catches by MJ and KA21 to give us fans some hope. It’ll be our TE’s dropping passes that would’ve been momentum changers. It’ll be Maynard passing in traffic with a possible INT or 2.

Here’ something constructive though… If we’re going to win, the D has to hold down the option, the secondary should tighten up and we have to tackle better . We should have KA21 play safety once in a while. The O-line needs to work as a unit, the TE’s should block and catch better, Isi should not plan on running up the middle, and our FB needs to get out there and block like a juggarnaut. Tavecchio needs to kick touchbacks, the ST line needs to block better, Anger (though great) needs to kick out of bounds because our coverage sucks…blah blah blah

Oregon 42, Cal 19

I hope that I am wrong. I really hope so.

by rollonyoubears111 on Oct 5, 2011 12:23 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Tedford will continue to play conservatively, running wildcats with Sofele into the wall.

Has he even done that once this year?

California Golden Bears: 2nd place is nothing to sneeze at!

by atomsareenough on Oct 5, 2011 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions

my bad, what i meant to say was...

the option (running Isi into walls!)

by rollonyoubears111 on Oct 5, 2011 7:54 PM PDT up reply actions

God, we are so hosed.

by ginfizzbear on Oct 5, 2011 9:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Cal wins 13-0

LaMichael James gets injured on a punt return and Oregon fans boo him before realizing that (a) he’s a Duck and (b) he’s not faking it.

by Oski4Heisman on Oct 5, 2011 12:45 PM PDT reply actions

the oregun fans would still boo, even if they realize both of those facts.

Being an Old Blue means never accepting success.

by SoCal Oski on Oct 5, 2011 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Jim Beam and in-n-out privileges are a helluva drug

"Remember the Maine! TO HELL WITH STANFORD!"

by CruzinBears on Oct 5, 2011 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions

BOOM

Yes they are.

PAC-12 refs: "Where the bad officiating doesn’t stop when the whistle blows."

by Quack Patty on Oct 5, 2011 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions

MMMMmmmmm...

quack patty.

Aughughwwehgh (Homer drool noise)

by Oski4Heisman on Oct 5, 2011 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions

The Only Thing to Fear is Fear Itself

* Young OLBs record a number of sacks + turnovers.
* Stefan McClure helps stop the pass.
* CJA rules the red zone.
* Biggie gives us good field position.
* Maynard → Allen all day.

Win or lose we show the chink in Oregon’s armor, again.

by freshfunk on Oct 5, 2011 1:35 PM PDT reply actions

I predict a very exciting, offensive explosion on both sides

I also think the game will be a lot cleaner than previous battles, with few turnovers and penalties.

Georgio nails a 50+ yarder and a Maynard to KA endzone fade wins the game with 30 seconds lefts on the clock.

Cal wins 45-38

6 1st round draft picks, 2 Super Bowl Champions and counting

by Another Successful Tedford QB on Oct 5, 2011 2:00 PM PDT reply actions

I just hope I won’t want to kill Italians after the game like last year.

by j.lee on Oct 5, 2011 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions

I like this, and I think if we win, it will be a high scoring affair.

Am I known as Cugel the Clever for nothing?

by Cugel on Oct 5, 2011 10:00 PM PDT up reply actions

We're gonna win...

And do you know how? We’re gonna play soooooo slow that it will have the same discombobulating effect as Oregon’s no huddle offense. We will win 31-30.

Lawrence Ross

by alpha1906 on Oct 5, 2011 3:57 PM PDT reply actions

Are we really 24 point dogs?

I don’t see us losing by that many. Then again I didn’t see USC scoring 42 against us in the first half last year either.

by Archon on Oct 5, 2011 5:14 PM PDT reply actions

Doesn't really seem reasonable

to fans of either team. I guess bettors haven’t been watching either team this year.

by omb on Oct 5, 2011 7:17 PM PDT up reply actions

Cal’s offense: We don’t even what we’re running next.

"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark

by carp on Oct 5, 2011 6:35 PM PDT reply actions

4 VERTS ON 3RD AND 20 YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Seriously, guys, Tedford is totally a conservative offensive playcaller.

"Let me tell you a story. I was a political prisoner for two years. The instant I was released I ran to McDonald's. I had a Big Mac and a Coke.

It was fantastic."
-Toyama Koichi, US Presidential candidate from Japan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGZqOkeYbB0

by AERose on Oct 5, 2011 8:16 PM PDT up reply actions

Bet on CAL?

Sagarin says we are 17 pt dogs but the point spread is 24. I’m in Vegas, do I make the bet?

by YleeXOtee on Oct 6, 2011 2:15 PM PDT reply actions

I think everyone is overlooking...

The fact that Uncle Ted picked the Ducks! Surely Cal will be victorious tonight!

by crazedfan on Oct 6, 2011 4:23 PM PDT reply actions

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