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Golden Nuggets: Cal-Nevada Predictions

It's Thursday and that means everyone and their uncles have college football predictions.  First, Uncle Ted's prediction:

California 38, Nevada 30: Warning, warning, warning, Cal Bears! Nevada is not a push-over, particularly not at home. The Wolf Pack has averaged 592 yards and 50 points in its first two games. Cal fans, if you want my advice, you should feel nervous about this one. 

Bruce Feldman predicts a 44-35 Cal win, adding that he's been very impressed by Cal this season.

Andrea Adelson, ESPN's non-AQ blogger predicts a Cal victory:

California 28, Nevada 17. The Wolf Pack haven’t had much success against AQ opponents, losing 8 straight games. Though the defense has looked much better, and defensive coordinator Andy Buh spent the last three seasons as a Stanford assistant, California simply has too much talent on offense. The Bears will find a way to slow down Colin Kaepernick enough to win. 

John Tamahana predicts a 38-27 Cal victory, citing Cal's defense as the key to victory.

If these positive predictions are causing too much hand-wringing, take solace in the fact that four out of five CBS writers predict a Nevada victory.

Attendance Prediction: Last week the models predicted 57,283, 63,342, and 63,757 while the actual attendance turned out to be 55,440, low enough to place in the top-5 lowest turnouts since 2003.  Since I'm only predicting home game attendances, we'll have to hold off on predictions until October 9th, when the Bruins visit Cal.

After the jump Tyson Alualu gives back to his hometown, Gary Peterson has an entertaining comparison of ranked Cal versus unranked Cal, Pendergast and Nevada coach Chris Ault talk about Friday's game, and Scout previews the matchup.

Star-divide

Football

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All 5 CBS guys picked Furd over Cal last year

Yes!

o=========<| BBBBBBEARZZZZZZ
May I offer you a glass of sunshine?

by Thoroughbred on Sep 16, 2010 8:17 PM PDT reply actions  

Egg everywhere -> their face

Drew: 'Oh no.. That is certainly the meaty part alright, but it's not the thigh..."
Randy: "No... that bone is NOT connected to the thigh bone..."

www.fearthefin.com

I rushed the farm's crappy field in 2009

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by SeanCrosby87 on Sep 17, 2010 12:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

Fixed

I’m not sure why I put David.

"Some people watch adult videos on their computer - I go to YouTube and watch Jahvid Best highlight clips. That’s what gets me going."- Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions head coach

by Berkelium97 on Sep 16, 2010 9:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

And three picked UW over Nebraska. I think it is safe to ignore their opinions.

by HelloBowlesHall on Sep 16, 2010 10:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

I guess they must be nervous about Case Keenum’s injury.

The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS

by norcalnick on Sep 16, 2010 10:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

I’m not nervous about UCLA’s suckitude.

by atomsareenough on Sep 17, 2010 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

I love Tyson.

"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark

by carp on Sep 16, 2010 9:07 PM PDT reply actions  

I put down $26 on Cal tomorrow

I thought I went broke after losing too much money on the world cup, but I still have money in my account. Here’s $26 to covering the spread. Go BEARS!!!

If this fails I’m gonna have to seriously play some hardcore short stack poker and build my account back up.

by dmo580 on Sep 16, 2010 10:39 PM PDT reply actions  

The dutch won me a lot of money last world cup...

Until the last game haha.

FUCK.

Oranje bojen!

Drew: 'Oh no.. That is certainly the meaty part alright, but it's not the thigh..."
Randy: "No... that bone is NOT connected to the thigh bone..."

www.fearthefin.com

I rushed the farm's crappy field in 2009

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by SeanCrosby87 on Sep 17, 2010 12:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

Green.

o=========<| BBBBBBEARZZZZZZ
May I offer you a glass of sunshine?

by Thoroughbred on Sep 17, 2010 12:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

defensive coordinator Andy Buh spent the last three seasons as a Stanford assistant

Considering we’ve beaten him the last two years running, this should bode well for us.

CGB: Wasting Your Potential, Your Time, & Your Life Since 2006.

http://www.californiagoldenblogs.com/

by BearStage on Sep 16, 2010 10:49 PM PDT reply actions  

You need more Sunshine! Here, pump pump pump.

Fire Starkey. You... complete me.

by since1997 on Sep 17, 2010 5:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

We’re

DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMEEEEEEEEEEEEEDDDDDDDD!!!!!!!

by yorzepol on Sep 17, 2010 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

Stop being worried about positive vibes, dudes... They are warrented...

I follow the wac… and I follow Nevada football… Lots of homies at UNR, because I go skiing up in Tahoe all the time with them.

Nevada has all the offense in the world to hang with most half-decent teams… but they don’t have enough defense to stop a snail… Literally anyone can put up points on this squad…

any team that’s balanced on both sides of the ball, and can score both ways like Cal can do, is going to have no trouble putting points up against Nevada. They can run all day against anyone… and they will get yards… but they are by no means going to make this Cal defense look silly all night long… We have a strong, fast run defense, that’s opportunistic and knows what it’s doing out there. Not to mention… Nevada doesn’t exactly come out in droves and create some wild atmosphere that’s tough to play against… especially when Reno has a crapload of Cal support… so don’t expect to have a very small contingency tomorrow. I’m bringing 6 people along who I know are loud, and proud of the bears… and we are going to make Mackay stadium wish it was never built…

ROLL ON!

Drew: 'Oh no.. That is certainly the meaty part alright, but it's not the thigh..."
Randy: "No... that bone is NOT connected to the thigh bone..."

www.fearthefin.com

I rushed the farm's crappy field in 2009

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by SeanCrosby87 on Sep 17, 2010 12:42 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Amen!

o=========<| BBBBBBEARZZZZZZ
May I offer you a glass of sunshine?

by Thoroughbred on Sep 17, 2010 1:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

OMG

This is epic. Please do something very stupid in the stands that will get you on ESPN. I will be watching.

Fire Starkey. You... complete me.

by since1997 on Sep 17, 2010 5:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

We will be quite inebriated...

expect to see shirtless bears.

Drew: 'Oh no.. That is certainly the meaty part alright, but it's not the thigh..."
Randy: "No... that bone is NOT connected to the thigh bone..."

www.fearthefin.com

I rushed the farm's crappy field in 2009

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by SeanCrosby87 on Sep 17, 2010 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

Attendance Prediction: Last week the models predicted

What are these models you speak of? I love models.

Fire Starkey. You... complete me.

by since1997 on Sep 17, 2010 5:42 AM PDT reply actions  

They’re not that exciting—just a handful of OLS regression models.

"Some people watch adult videos on their computer - I go to YouTube and watch Jahvid Best highlight clips. That’s what gets me going."- Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions head coach

by Berkelium97 on Sep 17, 2010 8:02 AM PDT up reply actions  

Are they super?

"Remember the Maine! TO HELL WITH STANFORD!"

by CruzinBears on Sep 17, 2010 8:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

When they predict attendance accurately they are.

"Some people watch adult videos on their computer - I go to YouTube and watch Jahvid Best highlight clips. That’s what gets me going."- Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions head coach

by Berkelium97 on Sep 17, 2010 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

Oh no, everyone’s picking Cal! We’re doooooooomed!

by Missing Barry on Sep 17, 2010 7:12 AM PDT reply actions  

My fear ...

Hey, Ucla -
1. Get your own colors
2. Get your own fight song
3. GET A REAL BEAR!

by SoCal Oski on Sep 17, 2010 7:44 AM PDT reply actions  

I really wish Ole Miss was more cool and would make him their mascot...

Seriously. It would make me respect the SEC like .8% more.

Drew: 'Oh no.. That is certainly the meaty part alright, but it's not the thigh..."
Randy: "No... that bone is NOT connected to the thigh bone..."

www.fearthefin.com

I rushed the farm's crappy field in 2009

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by SeanCrosby87 on Sep 17, 2010 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

Gary Peterson examines the bizarre tale of two teams: ranked Cal and unranked Cal. Why is it that unranked Cal is 13 games above .500 while ranked Cal is 7 games below .500? The world may never know…

If Petersen is using these as his “recent teams” stats, and it looks like he is, then he doesn’t know how to do basic math:

The Bears have carried a Top 25 ranking in the coaches poll into 13 of their past 36 games. They are 3-10 in those games. As an unranked team over the same period, the Bears are 18-5.

3-10 is 13 games. To go .500 over 13 games, you’d need to be 6.5-6.5. Cal is 3.5 games under .500 while ranked recently.

18-5 is 23 games. A .500 record would be 11.5-11.5. The Bears are 6.5 games over .500 while unranked recently.

(BTW, “recently” is arbitrary anyway, as they’re not counting Tedford’s first 68 games, where Cal had a GREAT record while ranked. Also, not only is this “analysis” a small sample and fairly arbitrary, it also doesn’t take into account opponent quality, injuries, or many other relevant factors)

by atomsareenough on Sep 17, 2010 11:03 AM PDT reply actions  

I’m guessing if you looked at the quality of the opponent in those two groups, the group Cal played while ranked would be a decent amount better than the group Cal played while unranked…

But yes, Gary Peterson should not do statistics…

by Missing Barry on Sep 17, 2010 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

/Cal beats WSU, ASU and UCLA in consecutives weeks

/Cal gets ranked

/Cal loses to Oregon or Oregon St.

WHY CAN’T CAL WIN WHEN THEY’RE RANKED?!?!?

The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS

by norcalnick on Sep 17, 2010 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Peterson is consistent with the way “over .500” is typically used. That is, how ever many wins you take away until your wins and losses is even is how far over you are, the opposite for games under .500. Now, you can argue that that standard is misleading, and you would have a point, but that is way it is done.

by Ursa Major on Sep 17, 2010 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

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