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Roll On: How The Golden Bears Probably Attack The Buffaloes

For those who want more Cal-Colorado preview stuff, check out the biggest individual matchups to watch on Saturday between Cal and Colorado's units.

Cal pass offense vs. Colorado pass defense: Establish short and the flats, spread the field, go middle.

Biggest advantage for Cal: Senior quarterback play

Biggest advantage for Colorado: Corner coverage, deep group of rush ends

Sorry fans, this is not the week to see Kevin Riley show off his deep spiral and go balls-out with Keenan Allen and Marvin Jones--those corners are good.  If Riley is lobbing bombs, we're probably down 21-10 in the third quarter and you're all howling at the top of your lungs about suiting up Allan Bridgford.

No, this is probably the week for Riley to start showing how improved he is on his short and intermediate routes, and testing the likely weakness of Colorado's pass defense--the middle of the field and the short flats. Colorado lost two of their linebackers last season, and we all know how losing linebackers affects a team's ability to defend those areas. They lose positioning, they get faked out, they don't tackle as effectively.

Although Colorado has some good defensive linemen, they don't a team with a lot of pass rushers, so you'll often see the Buffs rush four on many plays and not get any traction. That leaves the three linebackers with a lot of real estate to cover, and they are completely untested with their edge tackling.

Although Jon Major showed ability to cover tight ends, he's still a sophomore in his first road start, and he's likely going to draw Anthony Miller's number. This is an advantage the Bears have to be ready to exploit, as Riley has shown he's quite comfortable at delivering down the middle when the receivers get draped by coverage down the sidelines. Shane Vereen could also have a big game as a receiver, and if he can get great downfield blocking from the receivers that'll open up the vertical passing action.

Star-divide

Cal run offense vs Colorado run defense: Make Colorado pay for playing their base 4-3.

Biggest advantage for Cal: Shane Vereen. This answer will probably be the same most of the season.

Biggest advantage for Colorado: Experienced depth on the defensive line

Like I said yesterday, you can't tell too much about Colorado's front four based on their clogging up Colorado State. First off, they were going against the offensive wunderkind that is Steve Fairchild, who runs the ball even if the defense is sending his running back further backwards on every play.

(Personal note: I would know about Fairchild's stubbornness. He was the offensive coordinator for my Bills before Buffalo recognized he wasn't capable of handling tasks that required a brain. Watching him call offensive plays is kind of like letting your grandpa drive the car. No, grandpa, you're going the wrong way again. I think we've been here before grandpa. Why do you still have a license again grandpa?)

Colorado played their base 4-3 against the Rams. After UC Davis boxed them in, the Bears struggled to run the ball and seemed to persist as if to see if they could run effectively with a numerical disadvantage on the line. You don't think Ludwig will let Colorado get away with seven in the box against the Bears and expect anyone to respect them as a legitimate Pac-10 threat.

The Bears need to pound the ball with their zone techniques, using their agility to double team the big defensive linemen (the Buffs have some big guys up front) out of the play before moving out to take out the smaller linebackers. They need to seal off one side of the line (preferrably the one featuring Marquez Herrod) so they can give Shane Vereen open space. And then if they can establish power, awesome, although Colorado definitely has a lot of girth they can occupy. I'd highlight Brian Schwenke as the key guy here: Schwenke struggled with technique last week, but he's easily the most physical guard on the line with Matt Summers-Gavin's move to the outside.

Vereen didn't play particularly great in Week 1. He looked very rusty coming back from injury (kind of like Best against Maryland). He didn't always find the cutback lane, he ran too often to where the action was, and just didn't look very polished. Like Hydrotech said, Isi Sofele might be tough to take down, but he's still very raw. Dasarte Yarnway might be a monster, but he keeps on dropping the ball on the turf. So this is another week to work on running back development and get everyone accustomed to the offense before the road tests begin.

Cal run defense vs Colorado run offense: Get penetration. Don't open up the outside.

Biggest advantage for Cal: Nose tackles galore

Biggest advantage for Colorado: Outside play

Speedy Stewart is probably the evolutionary scatback--a small blur of speed and juking, he'll remind plenty of Cal fans of Jahvid Best on more than one occasion. Only thing is that Best was 5'10, 195 and Stewart is 5'6, 175. I know there are plenty of cantankerous know-it-alls who go, "OH BEST ISN'T A TRUE RUNNING BACK HE GOES DOWN AT FIRST CONTACT." Well, Stewart does go down at first contact. It's not like he can help it--he's small, and smaller, faster guys usually go down when they meet linebackers running straight at them or defensive tackles who reach out and grab them.

Discipline will be key for the front seven. Stewart runs well with big holes, less so with small holes. He has a lot of the same characteristics as Best--great open field speed and a little juke move that can help him evade tacklers. But he's not as talented a receiver, and he's definitely not as great with his vision--he's just not tall enough to survey the linebackers. He needs space to run effectively, and Cal's defensive line needs to plug those gaps and make him bounce outside for the linebackers to handle him.

And when I say Cal has an advantage at nose tackle, I mean that. Colorado's left guard and center are a problem spot, and they will likely draw a steady diet of Kendrick Payne, Derrick Hill and Aaron Tipoti. Good luck to Ethan Adkins and Keenan Stevens. You've got your hands full. Stuffing those inside running lanes will quickly turn Colorado into a one dimensional team.

Cal pass defense vs Colorado pass offense: Fight off wide receiver blocks, making open field tackles.

Biggest advantage for Cal: Inexperienced quarterback, young right tackle.

Biggest advantage for Colorado: The blind side and good receivers. 

I've talked a lot about the Colorado receivers already (here and here), so let's focus on Hansen and the offensive line that's got his back (or I guess his front. Depends which side they're standing on.). He's a little bit more seasoned than Randy Wright, but he's still pretty green and doesn't have many road games under his belt. So you'd expect him to struggle early on reading coverages and handling pressure.

Hansen seems comfortable in the pocket, when he can get into his drop. But it didn't look like he really challenged himself vertically, settling for the safe screen or the "I'm sure he's wide open" pass. So it remains to be seen whether he can really go deep with any accuracy, especially if the defense can get to him.

Cameron Jordan and Nate Solder will probably battle all day--it'll make for good film review for draft-nuts, although all likelihood is that this ends in a standstill. So I look on the other side at Ernest Owusu vs the new starter David Bakhtiari. Oh, sorry, let me make that juicier: It's the seasoned Owusu and the beastly Deandre Coleman against redshirt freshman David Bakhtiari. The right tackle had a nice game last week, but he's got his hands full blocking out those two on every play.

(Actually, I just noticed Jordan played left defensive end for the UC Davis game, so it might be Owusu and Coleman vs Solder--a huge advantage for Colorado. But that means Jordan and Trevor Guyton battle Bakhtiari, a possibly bigger advantage for Cal. Colorado's tight ends are not their strength, particularly so in pass protection, and the double-teams will be needed to keep Jordan at bay.)

So I expect Cal's secondary to respect the short pass and expect Hansen to aim low and short. Open field tackling will be big--something Cal struggled with all of last season. Colorado's receivers are decent downfield blockers, so screens could play a prominent role. And I wouldn't be surprised if Cal was flashing that 2-4-5 formation against the Aggies (or 4-2-5, the linebackers are basically functioning as stand-up defensive ends there) last week in preparation for the more versatile Colorado corps.

Get yourselves strapped in. The real season begins tomorrow.

Poll
I'm most interested to see...
Cal's run offense vs Colorado's run defense
49 votes
Cal's pass offense vs Colorado's pass defense
135 votes
Cal's run defense vs Colorado's run offense
10 votes
Cal's pass defense vs Colorado's pass offense
41 votes

235 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 30 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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KEENAN ALLEN

It'll be just you, me, and Peter Nincompoop.

by BeastMode on Sep 10, 2010 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

It seems to me (and I may be wrong … again) that the key to this game is much more Cal run v CU run D than the passing game. If we can control the line of scrimmage and bust off 4 – 6 yard runs with more consistency than 2 – 3 yard runs, it will soften up that Buff defense a lot.

Sure, that aint rocket science I know, but winning the ground game takes a lot of pressure off Riley – and we’ve all see that episode where Riley has to win the game with his arm.

Of course, this is probably completely obvious …

Careful, man. There's a beverage here!

by SoCal Oski on Sep 10, 2010 7:26 AM PDT reply actions  

I agree SoCal

It is generally true that we pass up the truth for something more intellectually stimulating. I’ve acknowledged my ignorance long enough to go with the simple patterns I’ve seen from a lifetime of watching football and reading analysis: we must win in the trenches. I truly believe our 2010 Bears will go as far as our Oline will take us. We couldn’t run worth a damn in any of our blowout losses last year.

by Calbear91 on Sep 10, 2010 8:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think both of you are definitely on point.

The formula for beating us isn’t rocket science. I think every team we play knows that stopping our run, pressuring Riley, and forcing Riley to win the game with low percentage throws is the way to go. Until we prove that won’t work anymore, we’re going to see a steady diet of run blitzes and 8-9 guys in the box.

Really nice write-up and analysis, Avi. I appreciate the time and research it took to lay some serious knowledge on all of us.

Old Toothwrangler

by Kodiak on Sep 10, 2010 8:25 AM PDT up reply actions  

I agree and voted the same. Everyone voting for the Cal Passing Offense v. CU Pass D. is probably just drunk on the Keenan Allen Kool-Aid we’ve all been drinking this week. If we can run the ball effectively, Keenan will get plenty of opportunities to make the highlight reel.

The O-line is the key to me this year; if they are spotty, it’ll be a long fall.

I'd like to smell the Roses before I die.

by BTown85 on Sep 10, 2010 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

Mmmmmm tastes goooood

I drink the Kool-Aid because Riley actually seems to be able to hit him with his passes. And if Riley has higher completion % our odds of winning go up almost exponentially.

by PlayClassyBears on Sep 10, 2010 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

while i agree that the battle in the trenches is the “key” to the game, the question was what “I’m most interested to see …” and for me it’s to see what KEENAN ALLEN and Marvin Jones can do against the Buffs’s (Buffs’?) big CBs. does that mean i’m drunk on the Kool-Aid … or maybe just a light buzz.

Barney Likes You (As A Friend)

by BarneyBear on Sep 10, 2010 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Agreed.

Having two stud cornerbacks makes CU’s defensive scheme a lot more dangerous. They can afford to pressure the line of scrimmage because the CBs are comfortable/extremely capable on an island. I imagine they will also key on Miller w/ one of the 2 roving safeties.

In my mind, then, the ability of Riley to connect with Starvin Marvin and Allen in man coverage is the absolute key to this game, and as has been mentioned here before, a total harbinger of our season.

by calbeers05753 on Sep 10, 2010 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

Parker Oms (the hardest-hitting safety) is out with an ACL injury. So that might make things a little easier in terms of worrying about the safeties.

So I’d expect a lot of underneath routes or short patterns where Miller is the safety valve, and Riley exploits the mismatch. And some running back screens to Vereen.

Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash Kunnath on Sep 10, 2010 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think the problem is I phrased the poll question to say what people are most interested in. And clearly the sexy matchup is between our receivers and their corners, so that’s what they’re looking forward to the most.

Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash Kunnath on Sep 10, 2010 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Nice write-up, Avinash

I love the format

How can you not love a team that does this?

by LovinBlue on Sep 10, 2010 9:28 AM PDT reply actions  

My prediction for Saturday: Cal will generally stop Colorado from running the ball, but their QB will have a solid day and keep the Buffs close. Cal’s passing game isn’t very efficient, but Shane goes over 100 yards and Isi, Allen and Jones contribute enough big plays for Cal to win by 7-10 points or so.

Then everybody freaks out about why we didn’t beat an ‘inferior’ opponent by more points and everybody complains about Kevin Riley before agonizing for a week until we beat Nevada.

The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS

by norcalnick on Sep 10, 2010 10:22 AM PDT reply actions  

but their [Colorado] QB will have a solid day and keep the Buffs close.

I’m kind of intrigued by that. From everything I’ve seen, heard, & read about the Buff passing game (which admitttedly isn’t a lot), I really don’t see how they are much different from our passing game. Is Hansen some sort of undervalued and unappreciated QB? Sure, he’s a step up from Hawkins (who wasn’t very good), but beyond that, why is it that you think the Colorado passing game keeps this close? Is it the tremors of Colorado replicating the Ducks & Beavers passing strategy that killed us last year?

Based on what happened against UCD I can see where our passing D may be a concern, but I’m also curious about how our rush D fares against their ground game. They have a pretty decent line and I think they may test our LBs. I wouldn’t be surprised if they use a lot of mis-direction plays to try and take advantage of our LB pursuit.

Careful, man. There's a beverage here!

by SoCal Oski on Sep 10, 2010 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

I’m also curious about how our rush D fares against their ground game. They have a pretty decent line and I think they may test our LBs

They don’t have much of a ground game to speak of. They were 113th in rushing last year (88ypg) and don’t look to be much better this year. Their O-line may be big, but it doesn’t seem to be helping them with the running game.

"Some people watch adult videos on their computer - I go to YouTube and watch Jahvid Best highlight clips. That’s what gets me going."- Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions head coach

by Berkelium97 on Sep 10, 2010 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

Hansen is like where Riley was in 2008. Inconsistent on the throws you want him to make but can handle all the easy throws. I don’t think he goes beyond his first read much, which could give Cal’s corners and linebackers a chance to make some plays on the ball.

But he might just play it safe, throw screens to the outside to try and stretch Cal’s defense, which would open up the middle and the crossing routes if the screens are successful. He threw a high ball on what looked like a route to the flats that the Colorado receiver managed to snare down. He threw a good corner route to McKnight in the second quote, but CSU blew the coverage, and I mean they completely blew it.

I’d say he’ll be a little skittish throwing into the zones. But he has a pretty quality group of receivers that can make him look good if he can settle into it. Which is why he’ll probably play safe.

Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash Kunnath on Sep 10, 2010 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Correction

Agonizing for *SIX DAYS

o=========<| BBBBBBEARZZZZZZ
May I offer you a glass of sunshine?

by Thoroughbred on Sep 10, 2010 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

ANYONE KNOW WHERE THE GAME IS BROADCAST?

Either on TV or on the interweb? Help a brother out….I’m in (sigh) New Mexico.

by Glanko on Sep 10, 2010 10:55 AM PDT reply actions  

Fox Sports Net and Fox Sports West. Hopefully you get one of those channels out there. If not, there will surely be streams.

"Some people watch adult videos on their computer - I go to YouTube and watch Jahvid Best highlight clips. That’s what gets me going."- Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions head coach

by Berkelium97 on Sep 10, 2010 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

It’s an FSN national broadcast. I think most cable systems in New Mexico get Fox Sports Arizona, so you should be able to see it there.

by sycasey on Sep 10, 2010 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks guys. Yeah, it seems FSN is only listing one game (ours) for the 12:30pst time slot, with the nearest one being 9pst (Kansas/Gtech) so I should be good. Thanks again.

by Glanko on Sep 10, 2010 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

No Idea

But can someone provide the link to the stream when available for us poor folk abroad this fine saturday?

"Remember the Maine! TO HELL WITH STANFORD!"

by CruzinBears on Sep 10, 2010 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's been standard

To post stream links in the comments of gamethreads. There’ll be a reminder to follow that protocol on Saturday.

Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash Kunnath on Sep 10, 2010 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Gratzi!

"Remember the Maine! TO HELL WITH STANFORD!"

by CruzinBears on Sep 10, 2010 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

yeah imma need a stream to watch from Japan…and I’m looking at you, Avi baby, to guide me. :)

"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark

by carp on Sep 10, 2010 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

You’re going to be looking forever. I’ll be at the game.

Just look at the gamethread and someone should post something.

Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash Kunnath on Sep 10, 2010 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

wait you can't

go on justin tv in Japan? on justin tv you just need to search hard on the right side list for the cal game. I’ll try to post a link tomorrow.

by Jayd92009 on Sep 10, 2010 11:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

cleaner than the old mexico.

"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark

by carp on Sep 10, 2010 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Avinash, you brought the hilarity in this one. Good write up.

o=========<| BBBBBBEARZZZZZZ
May I offer you a glass of sunshine?

by Thoroughbred on Sep 10, 2010 12:51 PM PDT reply actions  

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