Project Kevin Riley's 2010 Cal Football Season. Can He Surpass Kyle Boller?

by Avinash Kunnath on Aug 5, 2010 12:00 PM PDT in California Golden Bears Football

This is your fun afternoon experiment. Let's make some predictions about this season!

To see how we made our projection, first let's go back in the hot tub time machine and check out Kyle Boller's stats.

PASSING GP Effic Att-Cmp-Int Pct Yds TD Lng Avg/G
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Boller, 2000    11 104.49 349-163-13 46.7 2121 15 81 192.8
Boller, 2001    10 110.24 272-134-10 49.3 1741 12 48 174.1
Boller, 2002    12 126.81 421-225-10 53.4 2815 28 55 234.6

For all the hand-wring about Riley, his stats as a junior are better than Boller's senior numbers, and WAY better than his junior numbers. However, the base-line rate of expectation had been so low that Boller's numbers looked like brilliance. (Well, that and Lashaun Ward dropping a hundred of those passes.)

Stat-expert Berkelium decided these were probably bad numbers to use--Boller had a new coach. A much, much, MUCH better coach. So we looked at Aaron Rodgers's stat improvement from his junior to senior season.

Project Kevin Riley's 2010 season and leave it in the comments!

So we pull up the stats on #8.

PASSING         GP   Effic Att-Cmp-Int   Pct Yds TD Lng Avg/G
---------------------------------------------------------------
Rodgers, 2003 13 146.58 349-215-5   61.6 2903 19 79 223.3
Rodgers, 2004 12 154.35 316-209-8   66.1 2566 24 80 213.8

The first thing you say is "Wow. Pretty." Rodgers's junior season is better than any season by any quarterback Tedford has coached (the closest is Longshore 2006). And Rodgers and Riley could have similar senior scenarios--returning offensive linemen and receivers, and an experienced tailback taking over the helm.

Now, here's Riley's past two seasons (numbers from cfbstats).

PASSING GP-GS   Effic Cmp-Att-Int   Pct Yds TD Lng Avg/G
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Riley, 2008 11-13 117.85 112-221-6   50.7 1360 14 59 123.6
Riley, 2009 13-13 128.74 209-382-8   54.7 2850 18 61 219.2

Hmm. Not real impressive. Surprisingly Boller-type stats. There are even some similarities between Boller and Riley that go beyond the numbers (strong arm, inaccuracy problems, average offensive units).

Thanks to Berkelium extrapolating the data from Rodgers's evolution with Tedford from sophomore to junior season, this is the senior season we came up with for Riley.

2492yds (2700 if bowl game)
7.77ypa
60.29% (~193/~320)
22TD (24 if bowl game)
12INT(13 if bowl game)

I'd imagine many of us would take this season. A year ago, Hydrotech forecasted that if Riley completes 60% of his passes, the Bears would win nine games....and if Riley completed the number of passes he end up completing in 2009, he should be fetching Beau Sweeney's water.

Now, Cal exceeded those expectations and won 8 games despite Riley's troubles. If Riley completed 60% of his passes, who knows how good they can be?

Would you be satisfied with this season from Riley? Should this projection to be higher or lower?

Poll

Kevin Riley __________ Kyle Boller.

is going to finish with a better Cal career than

134 votes

will probably have about the same Cal career as

44 votes

is going to fall short of the Cal career of

38 votes

216 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 23 comments | 1 recs |

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Comments

Those extrapolated numbers for Riley look pretty damn good. 60% completions is nice, but a 2:1 TD-Int ratio isn’t (3:1 would be nicer).

But the more I think about it, the less I place blame on Riley. The games last year in which he got good protection and some cooperation from the receivers (i.e Ucla, Furd) he looked impressive. It’s mainly when he gets pressure, his receivers become afraid of the ball, or we fall behind by a ton early that things look dodgy.

Careful, man. There's a beverage here!

by SoCal Oski on Aug 5, 2010 12:22 PM PDT reply actions

If there’s one category where I think my numbers will be wrong, it’s interceptions. Riley takes great care of the ball, so we’ll likely see fewer than 12 or 13 interceptions (his total was only 8 last year). Rodgers threw 8 interceptions his senior season compared to only 5 his junior year. Since I was extrapolating from that data, Rodgers’ increase was reflected in Riley’s predicted 2010 season. I wouldn’t be surprised if Riley’s interception numbers stay closer to 8 or 9 this year.

"Some people watch adult videos on their computer - I go to YouTube and watch Jahvid Best highlight clips. That’s what gets me going."- Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions head coach

by Berkelium97 on Aug 5, 2010 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions

Rodgers threw 0 interceptions his senior season…

by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions

oops, I meant junior

I wish Rodgers had a senior season…

"Some people watch adult videos on their computer - I go to YouTube and watch Jahvid Best highlight clips. That’s what gets me going."- Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions head coach

by Berkelium97 on Aug 5, 2010 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions

Exactly, hence my :(

by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions

I think a 2:1 TD-INT ratio is actually pretty good by college standards, and great for NFL standards. A ratio of 3:1 is ridic for college and NFL. Although, if Riley had 13 INTs next year (on ~320 pass attempts), that’s definitely way too many INTs (about a 4.1% INT percentage).

I do agree with Berklium97’s comment above that Riley does a pretty good job taking care of the ball so seeing him throwing 13 INTs would be surprising.

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by HydroTech on Aug 5, 2010 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions

So we looked at Aaron Rodgers’s stat improvement from his junior to senior season.

by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 12:26 PM PDT reply actions

:(:(:(

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by Thoroughbred on Aug 5, 2010 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions

good pass protection = win

"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark

by carp on Aug 5, 2010 12:49 PM PDT reply actions

You are a scientist.

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by Thoroughbred on Aug 5, 2010 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions

I wrote this back in Feb...not sure if you were alive then.

As Cal’s O-line goes, Riley goes, and the team goes: All 9 losses occurred when Cal gave up 3+ sacks. Cal’s 8 wins occurred against teams that only sacked Riley twice or less. This makes sense if you believe that nearly a full proof way to kill a drive is to yield a sack. Additionally, 9 of Riley’s 13 INT’s occurred in the games where he was sacked 3 or more times. Certainly, one could presume that Riley’s ability to judge the heat that was coming, go through his progressions, and connect with his receivers was hampered when he was frequently pressured. Things become particularly dire if one considers that the punt team could have a woopsie, and that Gregory’s defense will likely let the opponent have the ball for a long period of time. This can likely lead to a change in the score and also prevent the offense from ‘getting back after it’ in a timely fashion. The sacks are cancerous.

http://www.californiagoldenblogs.com/2010/2/10/1304386/carps-crazy-thoughts-for-a

"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark

by carp on Aug 5, 2010 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions

i rike numbers

Samuels said. "That last-minute shot at halftime sums it up. Shooting off one leg? C'mon, man."

by ikoolykedat on Aug 5, 2010 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions

Nothing on this chart is surprising, which is to say it makes total sense.

I also think you need to separate 2008 Riley from 2009 Riley. In ‘08 KR was competing for playing time, and frequently only played in portions of games. He also had accuracy problems that seemed to crop up without rhyme or reason. (For example, he’d be deadly accurate against a pretty good Michigan State team, and then suddenly couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn against a much worse CSU team.)

In 2009 it was different — Riley’s performance was directly related to how often he got sacked. If the line protects him, he does fine. If they don’t, we’re in trouble.

by sycasey on Aug 5, 2010 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions

What sycasey said. Pass protection seems to be the key to keeping Riley confident up there.

Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash Kunnath on Aug 5, 2010 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions

yeah, when I started researching that post…my thinking was “Kevin Riley is a non-BCS conference QB” and wanted to look at his performance against “quality” competition and remove the garbage time stats. What I found is that his performance really depends on pass protection. I did remove the “portions of games” that Riley played in ’08, but I counted the games that he started.

"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark

by carp on Aug 6, 2010 7:11 AM PDT up reply actions

I remember this post. It was a good one. I think this post also illustrates how important the offensive line is, and even more important than the QB behind the offensive line.

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by HydroTech on Aug 5, 2010 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions

A case for neuroscientifically informed coaching?

Yes, I loved this post. I think it’s pretty clear that Riley is especially vulnerable to good pass rush pressure.

There is an interesting neuroscientific reason for this as well. Being as how that as part of my professional specialty I get to actually contribute. yay.

For the most part, the adult brain is mostly mylenated (the white stuff on axons that improves transmission efficiency) by age 18. It’s a sign of neurological maturity if you will. There is one exception to this rule: The Prefrontal Cortex. For the most part adult humans reach their highest level of maturation of the PFC at about age 25-30.

Think of the PFC as the key to making good decisions. It overrides a lot of mental processes (especially emotional ones) and allows human beings to focus their attention effectively. That is when it is mature and/or not stressed. This is especially significant in football and why teenagers are a disaster waiting to happen (it’s the time when the PFC is the least mylenated essentially).

A lot of what these 20-22 year olds deal with is blocking out stress and distraction to allow for muscle memory to take over (the Basal Ganglia in particular). You can think of that as instinctual movement. So it is for this reason that Riley looks so good when he is calm and poised…or when things almost don’t matter (see the comebacks in the Air Force and OSU games—he’s got nothing to lose). And why he falls apart when stressed (see the above sack numbers or his overthrowing a pass). Neurologically his PFC is saying “don’t trust your basal ganglia there is a 290 pound down lineman about to eat you alive get the ball out.” The signal instead of going to muscle memory (Basal Ganglia) gets routed to the Supplementary Motor Area (SMA) which isn’t going to yield the same level of fluidity and consistency that would be yielded if it had been JUST Basal Ganglia (it’s like when you TRY and think about riding a bike, you get messed up and wobble as opposed to just going).

The thing that was so impressive about Aaron Rodgers was that the guy was unflappable. It was extremely uncommon to find an individual THAT mature. It’s likely that his PFC was well mylenated (i.e. he was mature). The biggest reason (IMHO) that QBs are most successful in the Senior year is this factor. A lot of these guys are pushing 23 or even 24 (Weinke was even older) and so their PFC is much more mature. Their brains are physically capable of dealing split second emotional decisions better and faster.

The reason that Boller was so successful was the Tedford simplified the offense for him. He only used half the field. Rodgers was a freak (as was Reggie Robertson btw). So comparisons aren’t going to be equal unless Riley has matured (neurologically). By many accounts it sounds like his partying days are past…perhaps his PFC is primed for the task ahead.

by PlayClassyBears on Aug 5, 2010 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs

Very cool stuff, PCB. Thanks for taking the time to write all of that up.

Irate Toothmonger - Will get all up in your business for food

by Kodiak on Aug 5, 2010 8:47 PM PDT up reply actions

sweet. FWIW, I like TRPV1.

"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark

by carp on Aug 6, 2010 7:16 AM PDT up reply actions

Sooo….. JC transfers FTW?

"UC Davis??? hahahahaha" - Aaron Rodgers

by atomsareenough on Aug 6, 2010 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions

agreed & thanks hydro.

"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark

by carp on Aug 6, 2010 7:15 AM PDT up reply actions

SCIENCE!

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by Thoroughbred on Aug 5, 2010 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions

as far as the poll goes.....the only stat that matters is W's.

Go Bears Go

by Rocksanddirt on Aug 5, 2010 2:15 PM PDT reply actions

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