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Golden Nuggets: Figuring Out Where Cal Will Finish in 2010

People seem to have mixed opinions on how Cal will fare in the 2010 season.  Some predict that Cal will be fighting for a top-three finish in the conference and others believe Cal will finish in the bottom half of the conference.  Let's take a look at two of these polarized predictions.

Phil Steele

Pac-10 finish: 3rd (tie)
...
Steele’s comment:
Cal has not done well when expectations are high and they are not one of the preseason favorites to win the Pac-10 for 2010. They do have a veteran O-line to go with outstanding skill players and my #2 rated D-line in the league. Cal’s had some poor finishes the past few years but they finish this season with 3 straight HG’s (home games). Cal has five Pac-10 HG’s overall and one of their road trips is at Wash St. Now that they are back in the preferred "hunters" role, I look for Cal to pull some surprises and they are a legit Pac-10 title contender.

Athlon’s
Pac-10 finish: 7th
Projected record: 7-5, 4-5
Projected bowl: Kraft Fight Hunger
...
Athlon’s verdict: Meeting expectations has been a problem for California, but the Bears begin 2010 under the radar. The key to the season could rest with quarterback Kevin Riley, who has been inconsistent and must improve for the offense to move forward. Five starters return on defense, but they have to adapt to a new coordinator and repair a secondary that was among the worst in the Pac-10 last season. The middle of the Pac-10 is wide open — the Bears could finish anywhere from fourth to seventh.

After the jump we see what the previews are saying about the rest of the Pac-10, Randle continues to try to find a home in the NBA, Riley earns a spot on the Manning Award watch list, and more.

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Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

I must have missed Emerald Bowl’s demise. Pac-10 vs. WAC doesn’t sound as exciting as Pac-10 vs ACC (despite ACC being pretty poor in football recently).

by LEastCoastBears on Jul 22, 2010 3:34 PM PDT reply actions  

We could finally get

the Cal v Fresno St battle we have all been waiting for

by Another Failed Tedford QB on Jul 22, 2010 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

I just threw up in my mouth a little

The rep that Bulldogs fans have from Cal’s trip in 2000 is enough to make any Cal fan not want a repeat.

Of course, if you were being sarcastic, then I totally understand.

by FiatSlug on Jul 23, 2010 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

I’m not sure if they could have found a lamer name to replace the old one.

by sycasey on Jul 22, 2010 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

What the bowl looses in television appeal, it makes up for in ticket sales. The ACC failed to bring anybody to the game.

by chowder on Jul 22, 2010 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

We may technically be projected for the bottom half, but I think most analysts see a giant blob of near equal teams ranging from 3-9.

by chowder on Jul 22, 2010 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

That is true that most analysts see the muddled middle, but when forced to make decisions they tend to put us in the bottom. I’m not sure why because I agree we are in the middle tier with about 5 other teams, but I would tend to put us towards the top. I guess I would agree with Phil that we have a reasonable schedule, are strong at many positions, and there are no expectations.

by Mallrat92204 on Jul 22, 2010 5:02 PM PDT reply actions  

… when forced to make decisions they tend to put us in the bottom. I’m not sure why …

Really? I’ll tell you why: because every year since 2003 when these so-called “experts” have given our guys the benefit of the doubt, or picked them as the team to make some noise, there is a collapse. The result is that, deserved or not, Cal has earned a reputation as a disappointment, and a team that will always underachieve.

I think this year, with so many of these so-called “experts” picking Cal to bottom out, it’s simply a matter of the chickens coming home to roost. They’ve been burned by their faith too many times in the past, and now they’re ready to throw the Bears away.

Personally, I kind of like that. There has been a lot of hype in the past, and the idea of having to go out and earn respect, and play without the eyes of all these doubters and skeptics focused on us is a good thing. Let the Beavers or the Furd be the new media darlings.

Careful, man. There's a beverage here!

by SoCal Oski on Jul 23, 2010 7:40 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

we will finish in the Top 3, if not No1.

by JustBear on Jul 22, 2010 6:23 PM PDT reply actions  

we are too undiciplined...

amazing how easy it is to forget in the off season.

Cue Tedford’s annual spiel on consistency, it came right about early August last year, did it not?

…followed by such gaffes as Tucker’s taunting call that came at a pivotal moment against Oregon.

Seeing Hagan getting in WR’s faces while playing spotty coverage was not pretty.

The loss to Washington last year was pretty much case in point. I probably don’t need to go on, but Cal has a rep for this kind of stuff. I’ve heard the comparison of Cal to Clemson be made… bottom line: we are inconsistent.

Granted, it could be worse (see Oregon’s off season). But, I’m pretty confident we will struggle on the road, struggle to play coverage, struggle to pass, and struggle to pass protect.

If I’m wrong, help me out in seeing how we will be better than last year. I’m all ears.

by dirt on Jul 23, 2010 2:11 AM PDT reply actions  

Inconsistent, yes. Undisciplined? I'm not going that far

To support the case of us being “undisciplined,” you cite to Tucker’s infamous penalty and Hagan’s style of play. I’ll go you one more and point to Nnabuife’s “pose” after he made the play on 1st down in the Big Game, right before Mikey Mo’s game winning pick. Do I like seeing those things? No. But it’s a little unfair to call us undisciplined as a team when we were 2nd in the Pac-10 in penalty yards (meaning fewest) and FIRST in the Pac-10 in fewest number of penalties in 2009.

Discipline isn’t my issue with our team. But I’m with you on inconsistency. We showed last year that we could step it up and play well against good competition (e.g., Arizona, Stanfurd). Yet, we had mind boggling poor performances against Oregon, USC, and Washington.

I do believe we can be better than last year. But it will take execution. I’m not a film guy, so I don’t break down what we did and didn’t do last year. Bottom line, though, we didn’t execute consistently on the offensive line and on the defensive side of the ball (pass defense in particular). If we can get better in those areas, we can be a pretty good football team.

And, yes, I know that’s a big “if.”

Yes, I am an Old Blue. Now get off my lawn.

by Ohio Bear on Jul 23, 2010 6:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm thinking the key to consistancy is discipline...

or focus. It’s not talent. It’s abut players keeping their head in the game and doing what it takes on and off the field to be championship caliber players.

I appreciate your comments on the penalties— I didn’t realize we had achieved that much success in that regard. But, the quality of the losses against Utah, Washington, USC have me feeling like we need need more focus (discipline).

by dirt on Jul 23, 2010 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

also, as a caveat, I thik the loss against Ore St

was legit. We played competitively and got beat by a better team. The other examples I listed earlier were pretty much schizophrenic losses to teams w/ equal or lesser capabilities. Not scoring a TD against USC was ridiculous.

by dirt on Jul 23, 2010 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think we’re pretty much in agreement substantively. You just call it lack of “discipline” or “focus” and I call it lack of “execution.”

I think of “undisciplined” as a team that makes unforced errors, unforced mental mistakes — like the Holmoe and Gilby days when we had countless false starts, illegal substitution infractions, illegal formation, multiple blocks in the back, stuff like that. (I remember going to a game during the Holmoe era when we committed 20 penalties. TWENTY!) We don’t really have those kinds of issues under Tedford, so I tend not to think of our inconsistency as a “discipline” issue.

Yes, I am an Old Blue. Now get off my lawn.

by Ohio Bear on Jul 23, 2010 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

For the most part, I see discipline as unforced errors: silly personal fouls, taunting, needless penalties. The biggest issue I saw last year was consistent execution. However, I still saw things last year that I simply didn’t see with previous Tedford teams. (Flexing. Posing. Taunting.) I remember when he used to bench guys for a half for a fumble. I think that some of the little things have been lost the last couple of years. We don’t show the same attention to detail. Some of this could be personnel. Some of it could be the constant change in coordinators as well as a change in position coaches. But, we’re certainly not as crisp as we used to be. I’d like Tedford to be a little more of a bad*ss and bench guys who make stupid mistakes. From what I’ve heard and read, he’s gotten into the slippery slope of playing favorites and letting things slide. I really liked it in his first few years how he’d bench a star RB or WR for putting it on the turf. It sent a message to the whole team that details matter and that the rules applied to everyone. I suppose I don’t think of our inconsistency as solely a “discipline” issue, but focus and discipline are too intertwined to write it off completely. We don’t look like a team of crazy thugs. But, we aren’t anywhere close to the surgical, ruthless precision of 2004, either.

Irate Toothmonger - Will get all up in your business for food

by Kodiak on Jul 23, 2010 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think its less about us being better...

…and more about everyone else sucking. I think we have a shot at the Bowl That Shall Not Be Named (JINX) because (1) a lot of teams will be worse off than last year and (2) our favorable home-away schedule. As to assertion #2, its not just that we play Team X at home, it is again about the difference between Team X and home and Team X on the road. For example, Oregon is a completely different team at home (thanks to Autzen) than they are on the road, while OSU seems to get along just fine being out of town (and really, can you blame them for being excited to out of Corvalis?)

Here’s my incredibly ill-informed and highly-partisan take on it:

Wazzu: They can’t get any worse.

ASU: They still suck, still have QB problems, and their only advantage over us, that is playing in Tempe, is a non-factor this year.

Washington: Yeah, they’re still a team that’s dangerous, but they’re playing in Berkeley, not Husky Stadium – which I’d say is the no.2 or 3 toughest play in the Pac-10.

Oregon State: no Canfield, and they have a bizzare tendency to lose to us when playing at home, and beating us when they are in Berkeley. So, let’s see if Bizzarro Theory holds true this year.

Whoregon : A team that plays much, much better at home than on the road (Stanfraud and Rose Bowl, anyone?) – and without Masoli. Plus massive revenge game.

UCLA: Still have QB problems, and they’re playing in Berkeley this year.

USC: Barkley is good, not great, they have a first year coach, and there is the possible let down at not being bowl eligible. Yes, the Coliseum is a tough place to play, but its not a place that decides games (Stanfraud/USC).

Stanfraud: No Gerhardt. I’m sorry, but most of Luck’s street cred comes from the fact that he had the entire defense and their sisters and cousins were huddled in the box to stop Toby Wonderbread. And their playing at Cal.

I saved Arizona for last because I think this is the only team that is actually stronger than last year. Foles is probably the best QB in the Pac-10 next to Locker, and won’t make the same idiotic mistake he made last year, which basically won the game for Cal. Plus we are playing in Tucson, where ranked teams go to die. Let’s home we’re not favored. We seem to do better then.

Just my overly-optimistic 2 cents

***Sorry for the repost – its was on a dead string before

by Glanko on Jul 23, 2010 11:46 AM PDT reply actions  

I agree. I think we have the best schedule in the Pac-10. And if all the teams are pretty much even (talentwise) in the league this year, we definitely have a good shot. Look at our past records in even number years compared to odd number years. That’s no coincidence.

I see us having a good chance of winning all home games. So if we can just win 1 of 3 between Arizona, SC and OSU, we are in great shape.

by ryandrew on Jul 23, 2010 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don’t think Arizona will be that much better. They lost a lot of guys on the offensive line and they’re putting a new set of linebackers in the middle.

Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash on Jul 23, 2010 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

So what you’re saying is…there’s absolutely no way we can lose.

by Glanko on Jul 23, 2010 1:17 PM PDT reply actions  

Tedford is too conservative. He’s a field position / clock management coach, which works well MOSTof the time, assuming he’s working with strong players in all key positions and everyone plays with disipline and avoids penalties/mistakes/turnovers. But we all know it’s impossible for college kids to play 60 minutes of mistake-free football. There comes a time in every game when the head coach needs to make a risk-taking, gut decision to change the dynamic of the game and shift momentum and the longer Tedford has coached at Cal, the less willing he is to do this. I’m thinking of the fake punt that Boise State pulled off against TCU in the Fiesta Bowl, which absolutely buried the Horned Frogs – when was the last time Tedford made a call like that? I almost died when Tedford called that “center the ball” play on third and goal in the Big Game last year instead of going for the game-clinching touchdown. As it was, Stanfurd marched right down the field; if not for the interception, we probably would have lost the game…

I like Tedford and I’m glad he’s our coach, but he needs to be willing to take more risk at pivotal moments in big games…

by RoseBowlBeforeIDie on Jul 27, 2010 4:36 PM PDT reply actions  


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