DBD 4.15.10 My Recommendation to Mr. Scott

The Bulls are going to get swept, and then Vinnie will get canned. Sorry chowder, but they’re at a disadvantage at every position except maybe center, and even that’s a stretch.

The Magic depend way too much on the three offensively to win a series in five or less—they’ll lose a game or two in every series they should win (that happened against Philly and Boston last year). They nearly blew their first round series last year when the well drew up and Hedo bailed them out. Plus the Bobcats play some of the fiercest perimeter defense in the league with Captain Jack, Wallace and Diaw all scrambling around. Howard will probably wear them down, but Larry Brown always gets the most out of his guys before he packs town and leaves. Magic in six, possibly seven if they can’t light it up from beyond the arc.

The Celtics-Heat series sucks. Boston’s looked terrible for a month. KG looks like David Robinson near the end (effective at times, out of it at others), Pierce looks totally worn out (it’s so depressing to watch him play now), and Allen is starting to wear down. Rondo’s playing great ball, but it’s amazing how abrasive the vets treat him. I kind of hope that Wade carries Miami through just because a Lebron-Wade series would be fun for two or three spectacular individual duels. Celtics in seven though, and then they get swept by Cleveland. This is the Series of the Living Dead—the Celtics look ready for retirement and Wade probably wants out of Miami.

The Hawks-Bucks series would’ve been epic for true hoops fans with Bogut in there—I was so bummed when I heard about that injury. I really wanted to see the evolutionary Luc Longley dominate the boards. Instead Atlanta will win in four or five, setting up a real exciting Orlando-Atlanta seven game series which I can’t wait to watch.

Lakers in 7 without Bynum. Lakers in 5 with Bynum. Thunder have blown a half-dozen double digit leads against all teams of all sorts the past month to blow homecourt in the first round, and I could see the same thing happening here. Fisher will get eaten alive and Kobe probably won’t play that well, but Gasol and Odom should wreack havoc inside. Of course, if the guards decide to hound the ball rather than plastering it inside, the Thunder could sneak up on them, but if LA messes around with these guys. Definitely worth watching for the Durant-Artest battle.

Dallas in 6. I like the Spurs, and if they can pull the upset I can see them in the Finals, but the Mavs are the worst possible matchup for them. They can throw Damp and Haywood at Duncan for forty minutes, and Timmy’s not exactly in dominant form anymore. George Hill is coming in sore. Tony Parker is coming in rusty. The Mavs can throw Barea and Beaubois off the bench to outquick Parker, and Terry is a capable match against Manu. Unless Ginobili has the series of his life, it’s hard to see them beating Dallas’s depth.

I could definitely see the winner of this series in the Finals. Lots of hungry vets on both sides—something I DON’T see on the top half of the West bracket.

Suns in 6. Holy great Jesus. I hadn’t paid much attention to the Suns other than box scores, but I watched them the last two nights and they CRUSHED Denver and Utah on back-to-back nights to earn that three seed. And it wasn’t like the Nugs and Jazz were screwing around and playing cards on the sideline. Phoenix has three great three point shooters in J-Rich, Dudley and Frye, Dragic has finally emerged as their quality backup point (he’s even making some Nash-like moves), Amundson’s doing his deal, Grant Hill is playing great, Amare has been monstrous, and Steve’s still being all cereberal. Favorite team of the postseason (although it’s funny they replaced an injured Robin Lopez with Jarron Collins as their 5), even if they’re probably doomed to lose in the second round.

That being said, Portland won’t go quietly. Camby will make Amare work hard for his points. Nash won’t be able to handle Miller defensively (but the same could be said the other way around). Aldridge could cause Stoudemire some problems, but Amare’s issue has always been post defense. Roy’s meniscus injury is going to really hurt their upset potential. But Portland has the best home court in the league, so they’ll probably squeeze two before succumbing to the Suns.

No way Utah wins a Game 7 in Denver. I really liked the Jazz earlier this season, but they’ve sunk off since then, and I don’t see them having the horses to stay with the Nugs. Afflalo and Lawson will make Deron work hard for his points (if they could knock around Chris Paul last year, the story should be the same here), Melo traditionally has been an awful matchup for them, and JR Smith will throw a few casual 30 point games in there. The Nuggets beat the Jazz three times this year (once without Melo and Billups); and their lone loss came without Melo and Billups. Denver’s biggest weakness has been size, but Okur is a perimeter big and Boozer is an undersized big. Their exit won’t come for another round. Nuggets in 5.

More thoughts later.