Golden Nuggets: Recruiting Rankings

by Berkelium97 on Feb 2, 2010 5:00 PM PST in Golden Nuggets

On the eve of Signing Day, today we look at whether or not to get caught up in recruiting rankings. Wilner provides one side:

There is a tendency, especially this week, to get caught up in the stars and the numbers, to fret about a recruiting class not cracking the scout or rivals or ESPN top 25.

But recruiting isn’t an inexact science because it’s not a science at all. It’s educated guesswork, with enormous potential for malfunction.

So if your tailback is ranked No. 40 in his class (Toby Gerhart in 2006) …

Or if your quarterback isn’t ranked at all (Aaron Rodgers in 2002) …

Or if your team’s class is ranked No. 78, 57 and 64 in consecutive years (Boise State from 2006-08) …

…. Try not to stress.

And Dr. Saturday has an article on how some basic arithmetic clears things up. It's too much to fit here, but I'll leave you with a compelling chart. Sure there are more 4, 3, and ≤2 stars who are All-Americans, but when you explore their sample pools a bit more, things get cleared up.

On the eve of one of the biggest news days of the year, we have only a few scraps today: Syd makes his place in Ted Miller's player rankings, JO finds out why Syd missed the Senior Bowl, Wilner hands out midseason basketball awards, and Faraudo tries to make sense of this past weekend in basketball.

Cal Football

Syd comes in at 18th in Ted Miller's Pac-10 player rankings.
Speaking of Syd, he didn't play in the Senior Bowl because he tweaked his groin in practice.

Cal Basketball

Faraudo reviews yet another week in which things didn't get sorted out in the Pac-10.
Wilner hands out his midseason awards and Randle earns "Best Player" and a spot on the all-conference team.

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Where is the equivalent stat on basketball recruit rankings?

Any idea is that study has been done?

And, also of interest, how many of the five stars make it to the pros?

by concordtom on Feb 2, 2010 5:04 PM PST reply actions

My simple guess is that basketball is even more highly correlated. Five-star hoops recruits are pretty good most of the time. The problem is measurement, as it is hard to include the one-and-done, two-and-done types in any meaningful measure of “success” for the program. Jrue Holiday is an NBA player now, but he certainly did nothing for UCLA.

by Tedfordisgod on Feb 2, 2010 5:15 PM PST up reply actions

I'm not so sure about this

It seems to me that the key players on college teams, or at least the most valuable ones, are the guys who are not elite pro prospects. Would you rather have a Jerome Randle or a Jon Brockman for four years, or a Demar DeRozan for one? (Leaving aside the “giving a scholarship to Lil’ Romeo” aspect of that whole deal.)

I feel like a good way to sneak up on people in recruiting is to go after a bunch of guys with great skills who are just slightly undersized from what people normally expect from their positions. They’re not going to leave early for the height-obsessed NBA, so you get the full benefit of four years of actually developing them.

Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."

by PaulThomas on Feb 2, 2010 8:32 PM PST up reply actions

Eh, I would guess you still want really good prospects, just the ones that stay for 2-3+ years. There really aren’t that many players that leave after 1 or two years, so after the first handful, I still think you should be going after pretty big prospects. Plus, if you can get the really, really good players (John Wall)….well, they make such an impact even as a freshman it’s probably worth it….

by Missing Barry on Feb 3, 2010 6:49 AM PST up reply actions

I'm a sucker !!!

On the eve of LOI day I feel like I did while reading the pre-season polls this past August. After the Oregon game I swore I’d never put much credence in pre-season polls and now I’m all giddy about our recruiting class prospects.

Must………keep………it…….all….in……..context.

BTW – Thanks for keeping us all so up-to-date with all the recruit news. AWESOME stuff.

I'd like to smell the Roses before I die.

by BTown85 on Feb 2, 2010 8:54 PM PST reply actions

I’d be curious to see how the Doc Saturday numbers break down by position. My guess is that blue chippers among the defensive front seven are more of a “sure thing” than, say, quarterbacks or O-linemen, whose transition to the college game can be very difficult. But that’s just a guess.

Go Bears!

by California Pete on Feb 2, 2010 11:18 PM PST reply actions

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