Golden Spotlight: UCLA Bruins
(For more preview material on the game, check out the Bruins Nation podcast where CBKWit stops by and talks Cal football.)
Last season: 7-6
This season: 3-2 (wins over Texas, Houston and Wazzu; losses to the Furd and Kansas State)
Glass half-full review: Hard not to start off with the victory against Texas, which seems to be a genuine turning point for Rick Neuheisel's Bruins. UCLA had looked like a dead duck before their twin victories against two ranked teams, but their defense shut down Houston's vertical passing game and knocked out their starting two quarterbacks. They then punched Texas's offense in the mouth for thirty minutes before the offense started clicking well enough for them to break the game open and stun the Longhorns.
Glass half-empty review: Despite the banner victory against Texas, the Longhorns shot themselves in the foot so many times in the first half that it seemed inevitable UCLA would break through. Not to take anything away from the Bruins (they earned that win) but the numerous mistakes by Texas's offense paved the way for UCLA dominance in the second half. Kinda felt more like a black swan event than anything else.
In conference play, UCLA has not looked impressive at all, getting shut down by the Cardinal and then nearly blowing a home game to the previously hapless Washington State Cougars. Nestor of Bruins Nation has remarked that based on the way the team is playing, he doesn't believe UCLA will win their next two games in Berkeley and Eugene. Worst of all, the Bruins still are committing too many turnovers, with 14 on the season so far (114th in the nation).
UCLA's Pistol Offense
After a miserable start to the season, Norm Chow's Pistol Offense seems to finally be coming together. In the past three games the Bruins have topped 250 rushing yards on each occasion, including a whopping 264 yards in their walloping of the Longhorns. Through five games, UCLA's running attack has nearly matched their entire 2009 output (1312 so far in 2010 compared to 1490 in 2009). Kevin Prince will never be making any track teams, but he has rushed for over 50 yards in his last two occasions, including a game-clinching touchdown against the Bruins.
Johnathan Franklin looks pretty good. He's matured from his freshman woes to become a solid starting tailback. He's able to hit up the cutback lanes effectively and make guys miss at first contact. Derrick Coleman isn't quite as capable, but puts up 8 yards per carry and provides a solid second back. Teaming up with Franklin, they provide the running back duo that usually the Golden Bears sport every week. The UCLA offensive line isn't especially experienced, but many of them are seniors and execute as well as they can given the attrition of the starters in front of them on the depth chart.
As good as the run game has looked though, UCLA's pass game remains a complete and utter mess. UCLA is currently dead last nationally in passer rating, with Prince and Richard Brehaut combining to complete 48 percent of their passes (117th) and an awful 4.7 yards per pass attempt (last). Eventually they're going to face a team that can shut their run game down (technically, the Cardinal already shut it down enough), and the quarterbacks will need to make plays.
Prince not be impressing anyone with his passing accuracy (generally he's good at running verticals and that's about it), but the UCLA receivers haven't exactly helped him out. Nelson Rosario is their most consistent pass-catcher, and he won't be playing this Saturday.
So it'll probably be the Pistol that'll trouble us the most yet again. More on the topic Friday. But for those who want a taste of what's to come, check out this posts on the UCLA Pistol vs. Texas courtesy of 03rdn9.
Bruins Defense
On the other side of the ball, we have similar issues arising--good run, bad pass. The UCLA defense has known to be very conservative at times, but they can also play very aggressive under Chuck Bullough. Paced by likely first round pick Akeem Ayers and solid support from defensive linemen David Carter and linebacker Patrick Larimore, the Bruins are ranked in the top 10 in sacks and tied for 15th in tackles for loss. This has caused trouble for struggling offensive lines and force offenses into 2nd/3rd and longs. The run defense is progressively getting better after their early season debacles in their losses, stuffing Texas and Wazzu on consecutive weeks.
Unfortunately, the pass defense, usually stalwart, has been getting steadily worse, culminating in Jeff Tuel lighting up the Bruin secondary last week for 311 passing yards and two touchdowns. The losses from last season prevent this team from being that great defensively, but it still could be better.
There are concerns about scheme, which Neuheisel addressed as being too predictable and easy for a good quarterback like Tuel to dissect. However, the talent just might not be there, particularly at outside linebacker or at defensive end where the most pass rush is generated. You can only send Ayers or Larimore at the quarterback so much before the opponent figures out how to hit back.
Although safety Rahim Moore and cornerback Sheldon Price are doing their best to keep the offense from attacking vertically, it seems that the Bruins secondary is always left chasing opponents rather than acting instinctively. But while they seem more able than ever to shut down the run, holding the passing game down remains a big mystery.
Bruins Special Teams
The special teams continues to be a top-notch unit, arguably the best in the conference. Kai Forbath ranks 10th in kickoffs and has hit 80% of his field goals. Jeff Locke averages 45.85 yards per punt, also good enough for 10th in the nation and Taylor Embree is currently a top 40 punt returner. UCLA's coverage teams are always solid and should prevent any huge plays in the special teams game.
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I feel like we are going to win this game. We really NEED this game.
On D, I just can’t imagine that they are going to run up huge numbers on the ground. We’re healthy, have already faced the pistol, and unless Prince pulls a Masoli 2009 on us, I don’t think he can beat us on the ground or through the air. Stop their RBs, win the game.
On O, it all comes down to our OL. I really feel like we have match-ups at the skill positions, but we need the big boys to give them time and space to make plays.
GOLD OUT MOZAMBIQUE!
No matter what sport, I am always nervous about playing Ucla. Something about those guys just raises warnings and alarms. And it seems as if something has clicked with them after getting bitch-slapped by furd. Not for nothing, but that win in Austin was impressive, and those guys deserve respect.
Objectively, I see this as a game we should win without much trouble. Tedford hasn’t lost to the baby blue in Memorial, and we’ve made them look stupid at home since ‘98. And then add in that Ucla is as one-dimensional a team as there is in the country. Just stop the run. Just sell out and make sure they don’t churn big yardage or convert crucial plays on the ground. Prince is a truly horrible throwing QB, and their backup is even worse. Stop their ground game, and you stop the bruins.
That being said, watch Prince go 25 – 30 for 350yds and 4TDs on Sat.
Hey, Ucla -
1. Get your own colors
2. Get your own fight song
3. GET A REAL BEAR!
Defense: Take away the run, force the QB to make plays.
Hmm, our defensive game plan mirrors exactly what every other team does against our offense. Ugh.
by calbeers05753 on Oct 7, 2010 9:17 AM PDT reply actions
My nightmare scenario:
Their D stuffs our run, forces Riley to throw under pressure, and Ayers/Moore each get turnovers leading to points.
We sell-out to stop their run, only Kevin Prince hits their true frosh TE for 12+ receptions including key third downs and uncovered TD’s down the middle.
/bangs head on desk
Old Toothwrangler
No really...
this is UCLA. we cant lose to them, right?
Hey, nice name!
We used to lose to UCLA all the freaking time…
by calbeers05753 on Oct 7, 2010 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions
As worrisome as the pistol is
aside from osu/usc, we are 36-1 at home, going back to 2003. The “1” was a last minute comeback win by colorado st., led by Bradlee Van Pelt, in the second home game in 2003. In other words, since that game, we are 35-0 at home against teams other than sc/osu, and we have played much better teams than ucla during that span. As much as we should have very little confidence that we can beat decent teams on the road, we should have a great deal of confidence that we can beat a team like this at home.
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
Be careful, Mr. Wit
You saw what happened after Nevada, and also what my buddy Wilner did for Stanford last week
those are road games
it’s not like we should have much faith that we can beat a decent team on the road…the last time we did that was, what, oregon 07?
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
Big Game?
Cal Football: Embrace the Horror
by Thoroughbred on Oct 7, 2010 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Although to be fair, that’s not a real road game. There are usually more Cal fans in the stands.
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by Avinash Kunnath on Oct 7, 2010 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions
UCLA also beat Texas on the road
And it’s about as tough to win there as it is to win here.
So I don’t take too much stock in how we’ve performed at Memorial the past seven years. Because they’re not taking stock either.
Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com
by Avinash Kunnath on Oct 7, 2010 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions
well, then chances are, you’re going to get burned when you think we should win on the road and we don’t, and pleasantly surprised when we win at home. There’s a reason that we’re 8.5 point favorites.
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
There’s a reason that we’re 8.5 point favorites.
…to attract equal action on both sides? Yes, Vegas probably thinks we’re better than UCLA, but it’s not by that much.
I don’t believe that past indicators like home wins by completely different teams with completely different players should be used as a measuring stick for how we perform this season. By your logic we should beat Oregon and Furd handily.
Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com
by Avinash Kunnath on Oct 7, 2010 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions
no
I think oregon and stanfurd are a different beast this year. If I had to bet, I’d say we go 1-1 in those games this year, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we were 2-0 or 0-2.
If you don’t think that you can draw any conclusions from Tedford’s tenure and make educated guesses about future performance, I don’t know what to tell you. Do you think it’s just a coincidence that we have such an awesome home record (aside from sc/osu) and have such a mediocre road record?
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
I’d say we go 1-1 in those games this year, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we were 2-0 or 0-2.
Really going out on a limb there, aren’t you? :)
by atomsareenough on Oct 7, 2010 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions
Because good-but-not-great teams tend to win at home and lose on the road?
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by Avinash Kunnath on Oct 7, 2010 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, I get that Texas is one of the traditional powerhouses, but honestly, I’m not sure how impressive that win against Texas really was. I’m sure it’s a “solid” win, but Texas very well might not be that good this year.
by Missing Barry on Oct 7, 2010 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions
I think it's pretty impressive
I also think that we would have lost to Texas on the road…because we rarely win road games of consequence.
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
Well yeah, because Texas carries that traditional powerhouse name. Would you be nearly as impressed if they had beaten Oklahoma State on the road?
by Missing Barry on Oct 7, 2010 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions
If road wins are impressive (which I agree they’re good), shouldn’t home losses be equally punished? They lost 35-0 to Stanford at home….
by Missing Barry on Oct 7, 2010 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions
And they lost to K-State on the road so it’s not like they were 1-0 in road matchups or anything….
by Missing Barry on Oct 7, 2010 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Generally, I’d look at the more recent results as an indicator of team performance. It’s likelier they’ll play like gangbusters rather than pushovers based on previous results.
Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com
by Avinash Kunnath on Oct 7, 2010 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Stanford goes on the road to the Rose Bowl and beats them 35-0. If we beat them by anything less than 35-0 (at home, no less), we’ll totally hear it from the Stanford fans.
Fortunately, for Cal (who I predict won’t win by 35 or more points), there are no Stanford fans!
CGB's Jimmy Carter
www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com
going by the most recent results
which do you think is more impressive, our performance vs az or theirs vs wsu?
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
Their defense was bad. Our offense was bad.
So I don’t know what to make of it.
Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com
by Avinash Kunnath on Oct 7, 2010 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions
On the one hand, talent levels of teams are probably constantly evolving, so more recent performances are probably coming from a closer estimate of how good they are, right now, but on the other hand……sample size……
by Missing Barry on Oct 7, 2010 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m not worried about UCLA. Their academic standards are so high that they can’t get the same quality football players that we can get at Cal, so we have no reason to suspect that they will be able to beat us.
by atomsareenough on Oct 7, 2010 10:53 AM PDT reply actions 4 recs
Regarding the Nelson Rosario injury
So you are basically saying Rosario is injured but will play and probably catch the game winning TD for ucla in the final minute?
That’s essentially what I’m saying, yes.
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by Avinash Kunnath on Oct 7, 2010 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions
All the focus on this game seems to be on the defense being able to contain
the Pistol offense, which is valid. However, in my opinion I am more worried about the offense and want to see how they respond after being held without a TD in Arizona. If we can’t get our offense rolling and scoring against UCLA, we will be in for a very long season.
I believe our offense is actually more inconsistent than our defense right now and of the two units, the offense worries me more than the defense.
Cept that our defense’s one hiccup was to a pistol offense and that is what we face on saturday (albeit the junior version w/o Ostrich McHeisman running the show)…
And our offense’s one hiccup was against the one quality defense we’ve played (depending on how you categorize Colorado’s D)…
Though generally I agree with your sentiment…
"Remember the Maine! TO HELL WITH STANFORD!"
few ways of looking at it
1. if you guys get ahead, we are not a team that is in a good position to come from behind; so if your offense gets rolling early I think you’ll be set
2. our offense is not close to Nevada’s pistol at this point in time, and it’s not all on Prince – Ostrich McHeisman could be playing for us and it wouldn’t solve all the problems in the passing game, where not a single TE or WR has stepped up and made consistent plays on balls thrown to them. In the receiving corps we have some guys who have made big plays and then managed to nullify them with dumb penalties. If things finally click we could be a genuinely formidable offensive team, but right now, we don’t even have a credible threat of being a balanced offense.
3. our defense made WSU look dangerous. I expect Riley to put up some serious yardage – and it’s not like he hasn’t done that before to a better UCLA secondary. The key will be ensuring that you manage to get no more than 2 or 3 yards on your first two downs, as 3rd and long is where everyone is making us look silly (giving up a greater percentage on 3rd & 8+ than on 3rd and 7 or shorter…) in our bend-but-don’t-break(-a-sweat), prevent(-ourselves-from-getting-a-stop) defense…
FWIW, I think 8.5 points is a fair spread. I took WSU +28 last week (before the Prince injury, which lowered the line to +24) because it seemed just a totally absurd overreaction to us beating Texas. I think anything in the 7-10 point winning margin would be reasonable. You guys have owned us at home, and I think you’ll be able to score enough, and scout our offense better than our previous opponents, to get the win, something like 30-20…
Nice write-up, Avi.
Basically, I’m very, very worried, which feels about right.

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