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What Does Pete Carroll's Departure Mean for the Pac-10?


With Pete Carroll's official resignation, the Pac-10 now moves into a new, uncertain era. Barring a huge coaching coup by the Trojans, other teams in the conference can no longer point to Heritage Hall as the reason their band isn't rocking down Colorado Avenue New Year's Day. One of the greatest coaches in college football history is gone, and now it's up to the rest of the teams and coaches to fill in the void he's left behind.

Here are the biggest questions a lot of people are asking about teams and conference, both short-term and long-term.

Can Oregon emerge as the new USC? Some Cal fans feel the Ducks have been gaining momentum to take the mantle as numero uno. Oregon's had their chances to win the Pac two of the last three seasons, beating the Trojans both times in Autzen and possessing the crown once. It's hard to imagine them replicating USC's dominance, but they certainly have performed on an upward trend the last few seasons since Chip Kelly arrived (4th, 2nd, and 1st), and it's hard to imagine them deserting that upper-tier position.

They have plenty of intrinsic advantages. The Ducks have a great offensive system that they can insert relative unknowns into, and a defense filled with playmakers that hawk the ball. They'll be returning 20 starters next year and will be the prohibitive Pac-10 title favorites and a BCS title contender. They have the best facilities in the conference, perhaps in the country. They have perhaps the strongest booster in the conference who helps provide the Ducks with state-of-the-art technology, equipment and uniforms. They are an exciting team to watch every season and a sexy pick for many recruits, especially now that they've proven they are a top tier squad with great exposure.

Oregon's not leaving the top 3 anytime soon, unless Kelly turns out to be less of a recruiter than Bellotti was.

Does the heat get put on Tedford? According to fatheads like Ray Ratto who don't know what they're talking about, this is what's the case now.

Star-divide

Some Cal fans believe that with Carroll gone, our esteemed coach is now going to feel the pressure. The big reason that Cal hasn't been to the Rose Bowl yet is that they've run into the Trojans every year and got turned back. Otherwise we would've been there twice already in Tedford's tenure (although to be fair, that seems to be the excuse for Bellotti and Riley too).

Now, no Carroll=Tedford needs to produce, right? Not really. As Thoroughbred has mentioned ad infinitum, we will only learn the strength of Tedford's recruiting over the next few years due to our facilities disadvantage/treesitter fiasco. Starting with this year's class and going forward from there, the SAHPC should be completed for our football recruits to practice in. Only then can we truly judge Tedford on a level playing field compared to everyone else.

Anyway, Tedford will be here through 2016 barring a drastic drop in performance and on-the-field results. So he's still a long ways off from 'feeling the pressure.' However, the resentment and criticism will grow every year the Bears fall short of smelling roses.

Will UCLA take over as the dominant power in Los Angeles? As Rick Neuhisel proclaimed two years back, the monopoly is over...thanks to Pete deciding he was bored of the monopoly. By default, UCLA now emerges as a sexy pick for most talented recruits--with Pete gone, a lot of talent could leave South Central for Westwood.

Remember, Rick Neuheisel has quietly assembled solid recruiting classes the past two years (13th in 2008, 14th in 2009), will probably finish around that ranking this year, and managed to pace one of the most turgid offenses in the country to bowl-eligibility and a 7-6 finish. Take all the shots you'd like at the Weasel, but Slick Rick's great at getting talented players into his program and he will certainly have a great chance to take his first one from the Trojans next December.

If he's afforded the chance and stays out of trouble, the Bruins could be making serious noise in a few seasons.

Will Mike Riley finally deliver the Beavers a Rose Bowl? Cal fans aren't the only one in the conference feeling serious angst; Oregon State hasn't been to a Rose Bowl since 1965, and with Riley signed on until 2019, he looks like the coach who could deliver on that goal. The last two years Oregon State has come up one Civil War victory short of Pasadena. With the conference schedule again in their favor (all of their toughest opponents coming to Corvallis), can the Beavers get over the hump behind the Rodgers brothers before they have to transition to a new crop of playmakers?

Can the Huskies put themselves back at the top of the crowd? For a long time in the 80s/early 90s in the Pac-10, the most dominant power wasn't the Trojans or the Bruins but the Huskies. Steve Sarkisian and Nick Holt came through the Trojan system, and are slowly piecing together strong Northwest recruiting classes. Already they beat three bowl-eligible teams in-conference; if they could learn how to win on the road they could be a sleeper for the Pac-10 crown in 2010 behind Jake Locker.

Looking long-term, the Huskies have Nick Montana as Locker's heir apparent. Although the Oregon schools will certainly make life difficult for Washington at first, the history and success of the Washington program could pull in the best of the Northwest recruits and lead to bigger and better things.

When will Washington State stop playing in an eternal state of suck? Oops. That was kind of a low-blow. My bad. Moving on...

Can Harbaugh stick around long enough to bring the Cardinal to national prominence? For all the talk about Harbaugh being the hottest commodity in college football, he's only two years younger than Tedford, and unlike Tedford, it feels like he's leveraging his current situation as a stepping stone to the pros. If he were to be around for more than a few more years, I'd be pretty shocked (but not despondent, since he's fairly overrated). Al Davis and the Raiders seem very much interested in him now, and eventually one team will be willing to take a chance on him.

For the moment, assuming Jim stays around, he has a young team with fairly solid recruiting classes--with Gerhart they could have seriously challenged for the Pac-10 crown, but without him they should still be plenty formidable with a top-notch O-line, Andrew Luck returning, and a defense that HAS to get better.

Do the Arizona schools make some noise? Hard to see Dennis Erickson doing anything other than getting fired after 2010, but Mike Stoops is another story--the Wildcats seemed like a real good team before their faceplant in the Holiday Bowl, and although they probably fall off a bit with so many starters and his defensive coordinator/brother leaving this season, there could be plenty of chances for Stoops to grab the crown.

Will the Pac-10 get even LESS respect with USC no longer dynastic? This is something not many people are thinking about right now, but already you can guess that perceptions are heavily biased against the Pac-10, and the relegation of USC to a lower playing field could end up causing more bias in favor of bigger fanbases in the Big 12 and the SEC. Nick Daschel of Buster Sports makes an interesting point.

USC is the only program in the Pac-10 that can carry the water of a national power. Oregon may have sex appeal and the money bags of Phil Knight, but it’s a relative new shooter without a large television market. Washington is located in a large metropolitan area with a large TV base. But the Huskies have been down for so long, they’ll have trouble recovering even a small piece of their former status as a national program. California can’t win the Pac-10 title, let alone the nation. UCLA is only good for so long, and then basketball season starts.

The last time USC football was down for a period was the late 1990s through early 2000s. It might have been the worst period of football the Pac-10 has seen in decades. How else can you explain Tyrone Willingham winning a Pac-10 title (1999, Stanford) and Washington State getting to the Rose Bowl twice in five years?

If you want to see the Pac-10 become as irrelevant as the ACC and Big East, go ahead, root for USC to fall apart.

While I believe that better television deals could go a LONG way to solving that problem, I do agree that without USC in place as the de facto team to watch out for, we could see a further drop-off in terms of overall appearances. That's something I didn't even think was possible years ago.

Of course, you probably only care about this if you believe in the current BCS system, or you don't want to see your team hosed out of a national title shot. Otherwise, not a huge deal for anyone.

What will the Trojans look like without Pete? I think we severely overestimate the dropoff effect USC will experience--they might no longer be dominant year-by-year, but  they'll be more than capable of winning a few Rose Bowls and an occasional title if they can get a decent enough coach who's willing to put the work into recruiting to notch the top talent.

2010 probably does not bode well for them--playmakers Joe McKnight and Damian Williams are gone, so is tight end Anthony McCoy, their front seven should improve, but their entire all-star secondary is gone, they have a 13 game schedule that might burden a younger team and trip them up somewhere in there. However it'd be foolish to expect USC to drop off the face of the Earth unless the sanction hammer falls hard on them.

Missing Barry put it well:

Can USC stay on top without Carroll? USC is USC – it has the tradition, it has the talent currently, it’s a nice private school in LA – it has lots going for it. Any coach should have all the help he could ask for in recruiting. However, Carroll has been unbelievably successful at USC, on a level no other program can really compare to. By default the program must go down. If it does….well, for the first time in years, everyone has a shot every year to compete for the Pac-10 title, and that’s gotta be great news for all y’all who’ve been waiting for a Rose Bowl.

Indeed. For now, the dynasty looks to be dormant, not dead. Time for the Trojans to really fight on in the conference or get devoured by the Pac-10 wolves.

Poll
What happens to the Pac-10 football in the 2010s?
Someone replaces USC as the alpha dog of the conference.
53 votes
Two or three dominant teams emerge and end up sharing the majority of Pac-10 crowns.
288 votes
No dominant team emerges, plenty of teams end up in the Rose Bowl.
74 votes
USC remains the dominant power for the remainder of the decade.
54 votes

469 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 48 comments |

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Comments

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SC & the future of the Pac

My vote was for two or three dominant teams to take over. The question now is, whether Cal will be one of them.

Based on the past decade (or the Oooze as I call it), we should be there. After all, we’ve consistently been among the three or four best teams in the conference along with Oregon and OSU. However, based on this last season and the Cal mojo, we might get passed along by the babybruins or the fuskies.

Carroll leaving really doesn’t affect us all that much. Not even Ucla (yet). Sure, there are those who are more than happy to celebrate the demise of a corrupt dynasty (though really, how much more corrupt was SC than any other top school? ), but the fact is, as Missing Barry said, SC is SC. Unless they screw the pooch on the new coach a la Notre Dame, they ought to come out of this without too much drop.

The bigger problem still is our coaching staff and our players. Hopefully a bit of stability with the OC and another year with the OL coach will help steady our guys and bring about some consistency. Despite what Carroll’s leaving may mean to others, I just have to believe that if we just take care of our situation, it won’t matter what those bugs in Westwood, or anywhere else do.

Whose Axe?

OUR AXE!

by SoCal Oski on Jan 12, 2010 11:30 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

According to my little average-finish-in-the-Pac-10-over-the-past-five-years calc, we are currently the 4th team in the conference behind USC (trending down), Oregon (trending up) and OSU (trending up). We are trending down so unless we get something going shortly we’ll likely get passed by Zona and Furd in the next couple years.

UW is still pretty far out of it. They are trending well but they’ve got so far to come – if they made a serious challenge it would beat Tedford’s epic turn-around. They are a couple/few years out IMHO.

by tmoran3020 on Jan 12, 2010 1:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Sounds about right. I would say that UCLA, Furd, UW and Zona will put pressure on us. UW has me the most concerned currently. Maybe because we beat the other 3 this year, but also because I think Sark can actually coach, and I’m not yet sold on Hairball or the Weasel or particularly impressed by Stoops.

GOLD OUT MOZAMBIQUE!

by OskiMonsta on Jan 12, 2010 2:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I would put as on an equal level to OSU, personally. The next question – do those trends actually have any predictive power? Just because the general trend has been one way, does that really mean we can expect the trend to continue?

by Missing Barry on Jan 12, 2010 5:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I got us behind OSU, Oregon, and USC. But I don’t feel the pressure coming from the Furd, UCLA, or Zona. Zona overachieved-thats a one time deal. UCLA hasn’t shown much and with Chow leaving them I don’t think they are going anywhere. Furd is going back down after they find that Luck is overrated and life is difficult without a Heisman candidate running game. UW is the only one I worry about moving forward but we should be better. At this point, I just don’t see us getting ahead of the Oregon’s and USC.

by YleeXOtee on Jan 12, 2010 8:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Recruiting

Tangentially, any updates on Cal’s recruiting and whether we are going after USC commits?

No recruiting thread this month

by calbearjd on Jan 12, 2010 11:42 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Its here.

President Emperor Warlord Of The Sun!

www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com

by TwistNHook on Jan 12, 2010 11:52 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Carroll leaving shouldn't affect Tedford at all

It’s not like the Trojans are the only thing standing between us and winning the Pac-10. Maybe in 2004 and 2006 that was true. But we’re a middle of the pack team right now.

Hard to say what will happen, but looks like Oregon and OSU benefit the most from this in the short-term, and UCLA in the longer term.

by HolmoePhobe on Jan 12, 2010 11:59 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

It could affect it on the field…USC has won the last six, and Carroll’s defenses have always taken out Tedford’s offenses aside from 04. It’ll be interesting to see if Tedford plays more freely in the Coliseum next October.

Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash on Jan 12, 2010 12:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ok, it’ll have an effect insofar as one additional win could have an effect.

by HolmoePhobe on Jan 12, 2010 1:27 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Chances are USC stays pretty decent. Your blurb about UCLA worries me – Neuheisel’s lack of success there made me mentally write them off so I don’t even pay attention to them, but the recruiting thing is kinda scary going forward. Hopefully the door opened for Cal to win the Pac-10 sometime in the next 3-4 years. I think it will be more like the early 2000’s before USC wen on its roll – Oregon, OSU, UW, WSU rounded out the top of a strong, deep, balanced Pac-10. Hopefully this time around Cal is one of the programs that steps up into that top tier.

by Missing Barry on Jan 12, 2010 12:25 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

UCLA always recruits well. Dorrell had great classes too. For whatever reason, they have seriously underperformed. I’m not convinced that the Weasel is a very good coach, so I’m waiting to see them actually do something with all the talent they have.

GOLD OUT MOZAMBIQUE!

by OskiMonsta on Jan 12, 2010 1:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

All I know is

I will continue to hate them with all the hatred in my heart.

by CaliforniaBone on Jan 12, 2010 12:52 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Save some for ’Furd

by atomsareenough on Jan 12, 2010 1:11 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

They’ll be back. They always are. Someone will fumble fuck around a couple of Rose Bowls (and I’m not counting on the Bears in this window unless the passing game can ever get on track) until USC regains it’s utter domination. Wilner thinks it might be Moochi.

"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark

by carp on Jan 12, 2010 12:55 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Oh come on, losing a coach like Carroll and facing potential recruiting violations is only a minor bump in the road? That’s a bit optimistic. I mean, as I said in the quote from the post – obviously you guys still have a lot going for you, but you have to acknowledge you’re likely going to take a fair big step down from where you’ve been under Carroll (even if you’re still good)….

by Missing Barry on Jan 12, 2010 1:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

the threat of an NCAA sanction to the football program is only a threat that may deter recruits and/or top-flight coaches. The NCAA, unfortunately, won’t touch this cash cow in any meaningful way.

"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark

by carp on Jan 12, 2010 1:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeap...

OU and Ala. had some big sanctions hit how did they do? OU had a down year this year but they weathered the Bomar storm fairly well…

by Paragon SC on Jan 12, 2010 1:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I’m in our New Orleans office and one of the LSU guys here said that if ’Bama’s never had the death penalty, SC sure as hell isn’t going to either.

If I were Fresno State I’d be worried though.

by DC Trojan on Jan 12, 2010 3:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

might want to remind your LSU guy about throwing stones from a glass house…

"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark

by carp on Jan 12, 2010 4:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, you could have said that about Florida after Spurrier, too, and look what happened when Zook came in.

by Missing Barry on Jan 12, 2010 5:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

No, we won’t. I’m never watching a USC game ever again!

President Emperor Warlord Of The Sun!

www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com

by TwistNHook on Jan 12, 2010 1:46 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

PC was a special coach. I don’t expect SC to suck, but it will be hard/impossible to maintain the kind of success they’ve had under him. There might be a few “can’t miss” coaches out there but after that, hiring coaches is a bit of a crap shoot. It doesn’t look like SC will get a can’t miss guy and sanctions look likely, so it’s very conceivable that they enter a period of mediocrity. Eventually they will be back, it’s just a matter of time.

GOLD OUT MOZAMBIQUE!

by OskiMonsta on Jan 12, 2010 1:12 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn’t write off SC’s ability to hire a top quality coach. Sanctions would likely only last a year, and Tedford had the same obstacle when he took the job at Cal, but it didn’t prevent us from being a high quality team in his second year. Minor blip for SC in the year, maybe two at the most, ahead….I see them then continuing to be one of the top 2-3 in the conference again after that.

The compensation provided under [Jeff Tedford's] contract is funded exclusively from athletic department revenues and private fundraising and no State or general campus funds are used in this arrangement.

by dballisloose on Jan 12, 2010 1:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I see them then continuing to be one of the top 2-3 in the conference again after that.

I would call that not maintaining their success….

by Missing Barry on Jan 12, 2010 1:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The kind of success USC has had under Carroll is an aberration. The only other recent coaches I can think of who kept their program in the top 5 for the better part of a decade were Bowden and Osborne…you can’t realistically expect anyone to maintain that kind of success indefinitely.

by HolmoePhobe on Jan 12, 2010 1:41 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It’s been one of my recurring mantras for years: eventually regression to the mean will kick in.

by DC Trojan on Jan 12, 2010 3:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

At this point, it does not look to me like they will be able to get a proven coach. Riley is out, Sark is out, Del Rio and Fisher are out. People are talking about Mooch. (!)

I just think that finding the right chemistry between coach and program is tricky and unpredictable. SC may make a great hire, or they might miss. Given that some of their top candidates don’t seem interested, I think there is a decent chance they miss. Then again, things worked out pretty well for them the last time they had to settle for their 4th choice…

GOLD OUT MOZAMBIQUE!

by OskiMonsta on Jan 12, 2010 1:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

also brings up an interesting point:

What’s the most important trait of head football coach at a major college football institution?

a) Offensive mastermind: (Bill Walsh, Chip Kelly)
b) Defensive mastermind: (Saban, I can’t think of anyone else but your mother’s a whore)
c) Recruiting mastermind (Carroll, Ed Orgeron)

I suppose the best answer is c) and either a) or b)…Saban/Carroll.

Next question: Does Tedford have enough c) in ’em?

"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark

by carp on Jan 12, 2010 1:42 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I always thought Carroll was b (and c), no?

GOLD OUT MOZAMBIQUE!

by OskiMonsta on Jan 12, 2010 1:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

yes…though I think he’s less b) than others (like Saban).

"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark

by carp on Jan 12, 2010 2:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

a)

I say offensive mastermind is the most important

Am I known as Cugel the Clever for nothing?

by Cugel on Jan 12, 2010 1:53 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I think you need all 3 on your staff. Your HC can be any of the 3, but you need good assistants to provide the other 2.

GOLD OUT MOZAMBIQUE!

by OskiMonsta on Jan 12, 2010 1:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Indeed, but I think the HC must be a no-doubt-about-it c) guy. The HC must be also able to hire great OC/DC coaches (OC Norm Chow hired by Pete Carroll, DC Charlie Strong hired by offensive guy Urban Meyer).

One could argue Ol’ Pete plays Bob Gregory-style football with the very best athletes that he and his staff recruited.

Carroll’s defensive style is the antithesis of Kelly’s offensive style. Carroll’s style is no gimmicks/bullshit and thus doesn’t depend on one key guy with an ultra-rare talent to make the whole thing work. Kelly requires his QB to be that person and I wonder if his style is really sustainable on a year in/out basis.

"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark

by carp on Jan 12, 2010 2:13 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The door's open...

…it’s just up to Cal to walk through it. I have been reduced to hoping that the even-numbered-years phenomenon will kick in, given the weak spots on the starting lineups at present.

For most of the SC run, there was a sense that Cal and Oregon were just waiting to break through as soon as the Trojans showed their weak spot. Now, you have to think the top contenders are the two Oregon schools, with the Huskies and (spit) Furd on the second tier with Cal.

Honestly, though, I think it will help the Pac-10 not to have SC winning it EVERY DAMN YEAR. Boise State may be the new hotness, but nobody thinks better of the WAC on their account – and the inability to break through against SC probably contributed to a lot of the “Pac-One” talk back East. As long as the Pac-10 schools continue to play the best non-conf schedules (anybody want to take over waxing the Penitentiary of Tennessee next year?) and get some better results in bowls, I think the rep will go up.

(Take with a grain of salt; I also believe that despite still being top dog, the SEC has been down the last couple of years and the Florida-Alabama hegemony will be harmful in the long run – as evinced by the dismal bowl record of non-BCS SEC teams this year. I mean, Nerdwestern? In OT? The hell’s wrong with you War Dumb Eagles?)

"Well, if that ain't a show, I'll kiss your ass." - Gov. Jim Folsom Sr. (D-AL), 1948-52

by VandyImport on Jan 12, 2010 1:54 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure about anything except for this:

Cal is completely fucking doomed.

"Let me tell you a story. I was a political prisoner for two years. The instant I was released I ran to McDonald's. I had a Big Mac and a Coke.

It was fantastic."
-Toyama Koichi, US Presidential candidate from Japan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGZqOkeYbB0

by AERose on Jan 12, 2010 2:40 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I think you meant

DDDOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMEEEEEEEEEEEEDDDDDDDDD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by yorzepol on Jan 12, 2010 2:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I was in Seattle this past weekend and was so jealous/envious/angry of the amount of Husky support I saw with my own eyes.

Quantity AND quantity!

by Spazzy Mcgee on Jan 12, 2010 4:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Washington

Washington currently rank top 10 in recruiting. Scary…

by CalBears123 on Jan 12, 2010 5:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

lane kiffin named new SC coach...

just saw it on espn/conquest chrons

by oski4u on Jan 12, 2010 5:46 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Hard to see Dennis Erickson doing anything other than getting fired after 2010

As a 49ers fan, I enjoyed reading that clause.

GROUGTHINK ALERT
The first Chester Arthur fanboy ever.

by groug on Jan 12, 2010 7:21 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

USC

Will Kiffin “steal” all the recruits? Trodge: http://siliconangle.com/travisrodgersnow/2010/01/14/day-one-of-the-kiffin-era-usc/

Travis Rodgers

by trodge on Jan 15, 2010 3:45 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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