CGB Top 25 - Week 1
by ragnarok on Sep 8, 2009 1:57 PM PDT
in California Golden Bears Football
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PrintI am going to get a lot of this wrong.
If you came up with a Top 25 this week, so did you. You just don't know which bits you got wrong yet.
Top 25 polls after one week are silly. Almost as silly as preseason polls. We know more about some of these teams that we did last week, but still not a whole heck of a lot. Too many teams played (and beat up) cupcakes, especially Division I-AA cupcakes. Florida destroyed Charleston Southern, as expected. I guess they get to stay at #1. For now. But a bunch of other, less-heralded teams decimated lower-division opponents. Why can't they be #1 too? For instance, Air Force beat Nicholls State 72-0 on Saturday. What the heck do I do with that piece of information? And, without doing some internet research, can any of you tell me which state Nicholls State is actually located in?
Compounding this issue is the fact that, at CGB, we have three different voters with not only differing opinions on various teams, but differing philosophies on how to even rank those teams. Avinash has decided to take a strict résumé approach to ranking teams, á la Doc Saturday. I maintain that, this early in the year, such an approach gives you a silly (though thoroughly justifiable) ballot. Yellow Fever's ballot disagreed with both of ours. Here's what our madness produced:
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| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida | |
| 2 | Alabama |  3 |
| 3 | Brigham Young | 18 |
| 4 | Texas |  2 |
| 5 | Southern Cal | 2 |
Yes, BYU in the Top 5. I had the Cougars at #6, actually, but I don't disagree with this result. Beat a Top 5 team on the road? Why, you get to be in the Top 5, son!
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Oklahoma State | 5 |
| 7 | California | 5 |
| 8 | Mississippi | |
| 9 | Boise State | 10 |
| 10 | Ohio State | 4 |
| 11 | LSU | 3 |
| 12 | Penn State | 5 |
| 13 | Miami (Florida) | |
| 14 | Virginia Tech | 5 |
| 15 | Oklahoma | 11 |
OkState, Cal, and Boise all benefit from big wins, albeit all at home. They also benefit from teams like VATech and Oklahoma. Miami (FL) debuts at #13 after besting Florida State on the road. I couldn't say why Penn State fell; I guess they didn't beat up Akron enough? Ohio State's near miss vs. Navy explains their drop well enough, but shouldn't LSU have also taken it on the chin a little for struggling with a team currently in the midst of a 14-game losing streak? If you ignore the deltas, however, I think this is a pretty reasonable ranking.
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Notre Dame | |
| 17 | Cincinnati | |
| 18 | Utah | 5 |
| 19 | Georgia Tech | 2 |
| 20 | Georgia | 4 |
| 21 | Florida State | 1 |
| 22 | Oregon State | 4 |
| 23 | North Carolina | |
| 24 | Baylor | |
| 25 | Navy |
Notre Dame and Cincinnati debut after impressive opening victories, although it remains to be seen just how impressive either victory is. Georgia and Florida State prove that falling to quality competition isn't a death knell on your season, and some other teams filled out the rest of the ballot. Including Baylor. Baylor?!? Ranked?!?! Odd, though justified after winning at Wake.
Honestly, I had a lot of trouble with my ballot after #19 or #20 or so. I picked some teams out of the mass of schools that beat up lesser competition, but I don't feel terribly confident in any of my picks.
Oregon drops out for sucking unbelievably bad on national television, and Iowa falls after needing two blocked kicks to beat a I-AA school at home. Texas Tech and Nebraska could easily be Top 25 teams, though their Week 1 performances didn't give us any indication either way. And TCU? I plum forgot TCU. I didn't even look at my preseason ballot when creating this week's, and so when I looked for teams with good Week 1 performances to rank, I ignored TCU, who didn't even play last weekend. Better luck next week, Horned Frogs.
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It's in Louisiana
But I only know that because I play Grid Iron dynasty and was their coach for awhile.
TCU didn't play this week
Which is why you forgot them and I didn’t rank them. They’ll be back here next week.
Contact if you want to chat: bearsnecessities@gmail.com
Washington you failed me.
The biggest “Huh?” in these rankings is LSU moving up 3 slots.
I thought they were already somewhat overrated (simply because they are LSU), then they don’t do that all great against Washington who as noted above, is on a very long losing streak and is expected to be at the bottom of the pac-10.
I was hoping Washington would pull the upsets, that would be a major blow to the SEC backers.. and a big bonus brownie for the pac-10
get off me bandwagoners!
http://blog.cleancutmedia.com
Also, FSU loses but moves up a spot (maybe the votes were done before UM-FSU?)…
by Missing Barry on Sep 8, 2009 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions
No, they were all done after last night. The deltas look stupid on this ballot; I fully admit that. Preseason ballots get thrown away, and not even looked at again.
Try to focus criticism instead on “this team is too high/low”, or, even better, “this team should be above/below this other team”.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
“Try to focus criticism instead on…”
Well it wasn’t criticism, just pointing out the funny things that happen in preseason/early week polls. :)
by Missing Barry on Sep 8, 2009 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions
In case anyone wanted to see my totally homicidal ballot.
1) BYU
2) Alabama
3) Oklahoma State
4) Boise State
5) Miami (FL)
6) Florida
7) Texas
8) USC
9) Ohio State
10) Cincinnati
11) LSU
12) Oklahoma
13) Virginia Tech
14) Cal
15) Ole Miss
16) Georgia
17) Baylor
18) South Carolina
19) Notre Dame
20) North Carolina
21) Penn State
22) Utah
23) Florida State
24) Georgia Tech
25) Missouri
Contact if you want to chat: bearsnecessities@gmail.com
If you’re doing it strictly on resume, shouldn’t 0-1 teams be out of the Top 25? Also, what makes a team like LSU have a better resume than someone like Cal? Playing on the road maybe, but other than that, I think you would have been hard pressed to find anyone that thought Maryland wasn’t better than Washington going into the season…
by Missing Barry on Sep 8, 2009 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions
LSU going on the road to the west coast at such a late start time to beat an improved UDub team is slightly more impressive than Cal romping on a Maryland team at home, I guess.
Contact if you want to chat: bearsnecessities@gmail.com
by Avinash Kunnath on Sep 8, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Well as long as you really think that, then I have no disagreement. I mean I think Cal’s win was a lot more impressive from a resume standpoint, but at this point we know so little about everyone that I’m very open to other opinions…
by Missing Barry on Sep 8, 2009 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions
If the scores were identical, I’d agree, but Cal straight up whooped Maryland and LSU somewhat squeaked by UW…
What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. What happens in California makes the world go round.
I feel UW will be a much better team than last year, while Maryland has dropped down quite a bit from last season.
Let’s look at it this way. If Cal went to Maryland and squeaked by while LSU romped UW in Baton Rouge, who would you rank higher?
Contact if you want to chat: bearsnecessities@gmail.com
by Avinash Kunnath on Sep 8, 2009 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions
let me take a stab at this
Top 5 – teams that beat a preseason Top 25 team. But does that matter?
Teams 6-8 – The (now) favored 3 that one this weekend. They played patsies but they also killed ’em.
9-11 – No clue. tOSU barely beat Navy. LSU should be dropped until Washington can show it can win some games. Cincy – WTF?
12-13 – I get it. Good/great teams who have a quality loss (for now). But where are Oregon, FSU and Georgia…didn’t they just lose to Top 25 teams by respectable scores if these guys are at 12/13 and BYU, Miami, an Okie St are also in the Top 5?
14 – Cal could easily be @ 9 in your poll.
15 – Who cares.
16 – There they are!
17-19 – OFN
20 – sure
21 – If tOSU is at 9, why is PSU at 21?
22-25 – FSU lost at home. The rest get a “sure”
"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark
1) Like rags said above, I’m going by resume approach at the top so this was the logical thing to do. BYU had the most impressive win, then Alabama, etc. After the top five there was a significant dropoff in quality of win.
2) Navy has been bowl-eligible the past several seasons. A very good team.
3) I believe UW will be much better this season, maybe five-six wins. I’m stupid though.
4) Cincy dismantled a Rutgers team that was supposed to make some noise in the Big East. Easily one of the top 15.
5) Oregon was comically bad against Boise, and Georgia was inept. Virginia Tech and Oklahoma were at least respectable.
6) I’d rather underrate Cal than overrate them.
7) Not really sure why I dropped down PSU, but they ran up the score on Akron. Not too impressed with them yet.
Contact if you want to chat: bearsnecessities@gmail.com
by Avinash Kunnath on Sep 8, 2009 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions
If you came up with a Top 25 this week, so did you. You just don’t know which bits you got wrong yet.
I think someone set you up the bomb, Rags…
What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. What happens in California makes the world go round.
…sigh…
Fever’s reading is correct. Sometimes, I’m too clever for my own good.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
False logic!
Here’s one of my pet-pieves… you can’t say “BYU beat a top-5 team” when you don’t have Oklahoma in your CURRENT top-5. Who cares what we thought of them last week, we’re now saying that is no longer valid by putting them lower in our polls.
All one can say about BYU at this juncture is that the beat a top-15 team. (who also happened to be without their starting QB for 3/4th of the game).
I think you could certainly argue that Oklahoma is a top-5 caliber team (after all, everyone thought so going in) – and that BYU was the reason they were without their starting QB.
No longer wanting an interview with Ryan Anderson.
arrgh
I usually spend lots of time coming up with a logically consistent ballot, and then 10 minutes on tossed-off rhetoric explaining some of the logic. My statement above == FAIL.
For the record, I had BYU at 6, Oklahoma at 10, which I think is a perfectly defensible position.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
The fundamental problem is that rankings, even the end of season rankings, is a nearly impossible logical problem. Even in the pros where there is a ton of cross pollination, it’s a difficult task. In college where cross pollination is tenuous at best, it’s near impossible.
The closest thing to a “fair” ranking is what Sangarin does and everybody loves to criticize that. When one adds in that he wouldn’t touch making a poll at this early date with a 100 yard stick and it’s pretty clear that it’s an impossible task to be logically consistent.
In the end, it’s all about how we “feel” about the teams.
Well, to be fair, there are some serious issues with Sagarin’s methodology for ranking the teams. For instance, how do you deal with injury issues and the simple fact that teams don’t have a stationary talent level, that is, their actual ability as a team will change as the season progresses? The best you can do is establish a consistent set of judgments and judge everyone based on it – my preference is to make it entirely resume based, I don’t care how good we think a team is, I care how good what they’ve accomplished is.
by Missing Barry on Sep 8, 2009 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Early Rankings
They suck loud, hard, and sloppily. And this top-25 list is no different.
BYU at #3? Really? They could beat $C, Texas or Oklahoma State? When you consider the only reason they won is because they managed to knock a Heisman winner out of the game, their ranking is way way way too high (as is all the hype about them).
Boise State at #9? Really? They could beat tOSU, Penn State or LSU? When you consider how ugly they looked, and how the only reason they won is because Oregon is much worse than their pre-season hype predicted, their ranking seems far too high as well.
It seems that there ought to be a bit more considered than simply whether a team beat someone who was “ranked.” Their level of play, and whether they needed a miracle or an injury to aid their victory is at least as important.
But that’s just me.
Yeah, well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
I think there’s a long running dispute over whether teams should be ranked on “resume,” ie ONLY what they’ve accomplished on the field, or “power,” as in which team has the strongest team as perceived by observers.
What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. What happens in California makes the world go round.
Of course, that’s correct. However, using the “resume” system for pre-season or early week games (particularly those against cupcake opponents) is not a good idea, as evidenced by BSU – Oregon. Yes, BSU beat a “ranked team” but in the light of day and hindsight, it’s pretty clear that Oregon was not a top-15 team, so why should BSU be rewarded for the mistake of Oregon being over-rated?
You get the point, I’m sure.
Yeah, well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Too soon for me to do this.
One thing I absolutely cannot stand – in any poll – is to punish one team while promoting another.
Case in Point: Boise St is up to # 9 (or # 4 in some polls_Monday ) yet they beat a piss-poor Oregon team by 11 points at home. Oregon’s out of the Top 25. Boise St didn’t look so hot either, therefore they should be closer to # 25 than # 5, imo. Either that, or Oregon shouldn’t fall that far. It’s one or the other.
BYU barely beat a deflated & injured Oklahoma team at a “neutral” site. If OU’s # 13 then, shouldn’t BYU be # 12 (or thereabouts)?
It happens all the time and I don’t like it.
I’d also like to see the rankings adjusted as the season evolves and we learn more about the “quality” wins. For example, Oregon and Oklahoma could tank…but then BYU and Boise St shouldn’t get as much credit for beating them. It kind of happens but not really. Like Alabama (Clemson and Georgia victories) last year.
"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark
Good points. I have one disagreement though – I think with the BYU/Oklahoma example it’s fair to put BYU a few spots farther up. Unless someone disagrees, I’d hardly call that a “neutral site” – I saw almost exclusively OU fans there. Beating a team like that under any conditions, essentially while on the road, is impressive. Also, while Bradford was hurt, they didn’t do much better with him than afterwards, so that seems like at least some evidence that maybe BYU was the better team…
by Missing Barry on Sep 8, 2009 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions
I completely disagree
it should be further, not farther.
What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. What happens in California makes the world go round.
To be clear
Any ballots before October 4th (hell I wouldn’t start ranking until mid-October) this year are pretty much bullshit in my eyes. So I decided to have as much fun with this as possible.
Contact if you want to chat: bearsnecessities@gmail.com
On resume ranking
First of all, let me say that I am very much a supporter of resume ranking and think it’s the only way the ‘end of season’ ballot should be completed. With that said…early season resume ranking isn’t possible.
The concept behind resume ranking is that we, as fans (or, frankly, media members and coaches) are unable to watch every game, understand every nuance, and generally incapable of objectively deciding which teams are “better.” So instead of a half-assed claim about returning starters and favorable schedules, we look at what a team has objectively accomplished.
After one week, the only thing we know about BYU is that they beat Oklahoma 14-13 in Dallas. By putting them at #1 you’re assuming that Oklahoma was the best team anybody beat on Saturday. As Mgoblog points out every year, resume ranking (a system attempting to remove bias as much as possible) the first few weeks of the season simply removes our biases by one degree – from the teams we’re ranking to the teams beaten by the teams we’re ranking.
That said, I have no qualms with putting BYU in the top 10 or even top 5. I just think that the argument in favor of doing that should be based on more than just the fact that beating Oklahoma was the ‘best’ win on Saturday.
The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS
Like I said, all polls in the first half of the season are meeeeaningless.
Contact if you want to chat: bearsnecessities@gmail.com
by Avinash Kunnath on Sep 8, 2009 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Computer rankings - Have a preference?
Which computer ranking does the best job? I’ve always leaned toward the Colley with bias free starting points, but then there is a certain silliness to considering WSU on equal footing with Florida at the start of the year. Does that make Colley resume based in a sense?
In a sense. In another sense, the computers aren’t allowed to consider the score, or if they are, they’re not allowed in the version that the BCS uses. Moreover, the computer can’t consider things like critical injuries or crazy lucky plays. It’s résumé, but with a limited data set.
I don’t know offhand how all the computers work, but I do know that once Sagarin has a complete connected graph (everybody has played someone else who played someone else, so you can make indirect comparisons between any two teams), the initial bias is removed. Before then, rankings are silly no matter how you slice it.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
One thing that would be great to see
is if some computer rankings could start to factor in game ratios like Yards per play/opponents yards per play of the variety that Doc Saturday uses for his life on the margins series.
Alternatively, if they used a ratio like expected offense/expected yards allowed which would help determine if a team played well or if a team played a bad team.
Something like that could finally start to differentiate between 12-0 or 7-5 teams in a more convincing way than SoS and MoV.
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| Fresno St. | Sat 09/03 | W 36 - 21 |
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Sat 09/10 | W 36 - 33 |
| Presbyterian | Sat 09/17 | W 63 - 12 |
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Sat 09/24 | L 23 - 31 |
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Thu 10/06 | L 15 - 43 |
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USC
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Sat 10/22 | W 34 - 10 |
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Sat 10/29 | L 14 - 31 |
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Washington St.
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Oregon St.
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