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Around SBN: College Football Preseason Top 25 Rankings

CGB Top 25 - Week 4

After 4 weeks, creating a Top 25 list is starting to get easier -- and a whole lot harder.  We've finally got a decent pile of data to work with, but some of that data starts contradicting itself as teams start giving uneven performances.  Miami (FL) looked good in winning its first two, but was outclassed at Virginia Tech.  Cal erased all memory of its 3-0 start in getting blown out of Autzen Stadium, and did the same Iowa team that needed two blocked kicks to beat Northern Iowa at home actually beat Penn State on the road?  Really?  Anyway, here's this week's best guesses:

RankTeamDelta
1 Alabama 1
2 Boise State 3
3 Virginia Tech 7
4 Florida 2
5 Cincinnati 1

Alabama benefits when Virginia Tech takes out Miami, reclaiming the top spot in our poll.  VaTech benefits quite a bit themselves, while Boise State is aided by Oregon's resurgence.  I have no idea why Florida jumped Cincy and Texas; probably because I didn't look at last week's ballot when I voted this week.

Star-divide

RankTeamDelta
6 Texas 3
7 Houston 8
8 LSU 1
9 Southern Cal 4
10 Auburn 13

Have you compared LSU's résumé to Auburn's?  They're remarkably similar.  LSU - W 31-23 @ Washington, W 23-9 vs. Vanderbilt, W 31-3 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette, W 30-26 @ Mississippi State.  Auburn - W 37-13 vs. Louisiana Tech, W 49-24 vs. Mississippi State, W 41-30 vs. West Virginia, W 54-30 vs. Ball State.  Other than LSU's willingness to play (and win) on the road, there's not much difference.  Is UW a better win than West Virginia?  Is playing Miss St at home that much an advantage?  Frankly, I can't see much reason why LSU is in the Top 10 while Auburn is unranked.

RankTeamDelta
11 Ohio State 3
12 TCU 13
13 UCLA 1
14 Iowa
15 Miami (Florida) 14

TCU jumps as a whole bunch of teams lose.  Probably too high, but I'm guessing they'll come down to earth soon enough.  That win at Clemson can only be worth so much.  Iowa jumps back in our poll after taking out Penn State on the road.  Impressive, or was PSU just overrated to begin with?  Meanwhile, Miami drops a bunch, especially coupled with Florida State's choke job vs. South Florida, but two good wins still means they can only drop so far.

RankTeamDelta
16 Oregon 8
17 Oklahoma State 4
18 Wisconsin
19 Nebraska 1
20 South Carolina

Oregon takes a big leap for obvious reasons.  Wisconsin jumps into our poll for mysterious ones, while South Carolina gets a vote of confidence after surviving an ugly win over Ole Miss.  Blame Avi for that one; I didn't think either team merited Top 25 consideration.

RankTeamDelta
21 Georgia
22 Michigan 2
23 Oklahoma 6
24 Missouri
25 South Florida
Last week's ballot

Michigan almost lost to Indiana.  At home.  That's almost a fireable offense right there; what they're still doing in the Top 25 is a mystery to me.  South Florida beats FSU to debut in our poll, but how much is that win worth?  The Seminoles looked great in beating BYU the week before, but nearly lost to Jacksonville State the week before that.  Will the real Florida State please stand up?

Dropped Out: California (#8), Penn State (#9), Florida State (#11), Washington (#16), Brigham Young (#19), Mississippi (#22).

I don't think I really need to explain why most of these teams dropped out of our poll, but it's probably worth noting that BYU dropped because Florida State gagged vs. South Florida and their non-Matt Grothe quarterback.  If I don't vote for FSU, I certainly can't vote for BYU at this point, road win over Oklahoma or not.

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Comments

Display:

hmmm

I think Arizona/Iowa/Penn State are all better than Oklahoma State/Georgia. And all five of them are better than Wisconsin. Pretty clear that Boise can play with anyone, though.

by ohsooso on Sep 29, 2009 5:53 AM PDT reply actions  

Penn State is only 6.5 point favorites at Illinois. Don’t mean to alarm anyone, but Illinois sucks.
Wisconsin, interestingly enough, is underdogs at Minnesota.

Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash on Sep 29, 2009 6:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

AZ?

Seriously? That team is not that good this year. I get that they beat Or State and all, but Oregon State is going their usual ‘lose at completely baffling times early in the season’ period.

The Cats looked completely unimpressive in wins against Central Michigan and Northern Arizona. They’re not that good.

Of course, Okie State and Georiga have looked pretty bad this year at times as well, but Georgia’s schedule thus far has been way more difficult than Arizona’s, Iowa’s, or Penn State’s.

by CAJason80 on Sep 29, 2009 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

Also should be noted

LSU are currently underdogs at Georgia. Not too good for a top 5 team.

Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash on Sep 29, 2009 6:08 AM PDT reply actions  

LSU

They barely beat Mississippi State on the road and now they have to play Georgia on the road. I’m not surprised that LSU is an underdog.

The Ultimate Opportunist

by Rated-R Superstar on Sep 29, 2009 7:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think LSU is in top 5 by default more than actual performance.

by sec119 on Sep 29, 2009 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions  

Except for the year they ended #2,

Georgia almost always disappoints. LSU will probably beat them but good (though they probably are both overrated). I like the Auburn and Alabama rankings, though: those teams have been extremely impressive so far (though one wonders a little about the Tide defense after that Arkansas game).

Penn State will beat Illinois by a lot more than 6. Picking against Zook last week was like shooting fish in a barrel.

by ohsooso on Sep 29, 2009 9:02 AM PDT reply actions  

Georgia is like the SEC version of Cal except with a bit more BCS successes.

In other words, Go Bears!

by royrules22 on Sep 29, 2009 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

Err…four times more, if you count co-championships …

by sec119 on Sep 29, 2009 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

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