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CGB Top 25 - Week 3

CGB's Top 25 can sometimes be a pretty strange beast.  Here, we have three different voters with three different voting philosophies, so not only do we differ on our opinions regarding the quality of the football teams that we've seen, but we also disagree on which qualities are most important in terms of rankings.  Combining three disparate opinions into one coherent and internally consistent Top 25 is a challenge, and it's not always achievable.  Normally, I simply run the three ballots through a Borda count (25 points for 1st place, 24 for 2nd, etc. -- the same system as the AP and coaches use), and what we get is what we get.  However, with only 3 ballots, outliers can really screw with the system.

For instance, this week Avinash decided to vote for Auburn.  Neither Yellow Fever or I did so (I never really considered them).  Had Avinash put his lone Auburn vote at the bottom of his ballot, it would have been basically thrown away, like my vote for Iowa at #25.  However, Avinash put Auburn in his Top 10, and the resulting Borda count value (16) was enough to check the Tigers in at #23, despite YF's and my indifference.

Is this a fair way to combine ballots?  Is there a better way?  I'm considering switching my combination method to some sort of modified version of an instant runoff, which would have the advantage of negating any one voters' wild enthusiasm or disdain for a particular team, perhaps producing a ballot that the three of us could agree on.  Thoughts?  Potential pitfalls?  Anyone had experience with such a system?

Anyway, on with our Top 25:

RankTeamDelta
1 Miami (Florida) 18
2 Alabama
3 Texas 2
4 Cincinnati 6
5 Boise State 2

Welcome to the top, Miami.  I hope your stay up there is longer than USC's, although with a trip to Virginia Tech looming this weekend, I'm not so sure that that will be the case.  'Bama holds steady, while Texas and Boise State take advantage of USC and BYU losing to move up.  Although I'm not sure how stiff a test the Big East will be for Cincinnati, they've looked darn good so far in taking down Oregon State and dismantling Rutgers; few other teams have a better résumé.

Star-divide

RankTeamDelta
6 Florida 2
7 LSU 4
8 California 2
9 Penn State 1
10 Virginia Tech 8

Well, LSU's win over UW now looks significantly better after the Huskies knocked off USC.  Cal gave me something to worry about at Minnesota (our kicking game looks like it's going to cost us at least one close game this year, if not more), and Penn State continues to beat up tomato cans (no one is impressed with a win over Temple).  I think the Nittany Lions should drop further.  Virginia Tech, on the other hand, takes a big leap after beating Nebraska.  I'm still not sure how much that win should be worth, but the Hokies tilt with Miami will tell us a lot this weekend.

RankTeamDelta
11 Florida State
12 UCLA 4
13 Southern Cal 12
14 Ohio State 1
15 Houston 6

Yeah, I think we all know that USC is a better team than Washington, and will almost certainly end up higher in the standings.  But I'm really starting to doubt that the Trojans are that good -- which doesn't speak well for Ohio State, either.  Florida State, meanwhile, scores a huge win -- a week after nearly gagging vs. Jacksonville State, they crush BYU in Provo.  Welcome back to the Top 25.  UCLA beating Kansas State doesn't impress me, but I moved them up after Tennessee hung in there with Florida.  Houston, meanwhile, doesn't play, and gets passed by a bunch of teams that did something last weekend.

RankTeamDelta
16 Washington
17 Oklahoma 2
18 Nebraska
19 Brigham Young 16
20 Michigan 6

And UW at 16?  Well, they have the same record as USC _and_ they beat them head-to-head, plus the loss to LSU is entirely respectable.  Avi and I both have the Huskies above USC, while Fever (rightly) considers that USC is almost certainly still a better team than Washington, and so leaves the Huskies well below the Trojans.  Regardless, their first foray back in the Top 25 in years could be a short one if they don't bring their A-game down to the Farm.  Meanwhile, BYU saw it's "best argument for crashing the BCS title game" go up in flames as they were buried at home vs. FSU.  The Oklahoma win still holds weight, but how much?  Nebraska isn't punished for a close loss at VaTech, while Oklahoma and Michigan bear nobodies soundly, and get passed by other teams in the process.

RankTeamDelta
21 Oklahoma State 1
22 Mississippi 10
23 Auburn
24 Oregon
25 TCU 5
Last week's ballot

Oregon ends Utah's winning streak and steals their place in the Top 25.  Okie State is still buoyed by that win over Georgia.  Ole Miss, Auburn and TCU have played some games, but nothing that tells me anything.  They might be good, they might not.  Frankly, on further consideration, Penn State rather belongs down here -- their résumé isn't materially different from Mississippi or Texas Christian.  Something to consider for next week, perhaps.

Dropped Out: Georgia Tech (#17), Utah (#21), North Carolina (#23), Oregon State (#24), Kansas (#25).

Georgia Tech, Utah, and Oregon State all lose and drop out, and all three lose by a margin of more than one score.  Meanwhile, North Carolina and Kansas drop just because they got passed by other, more deserving teams, but not far -- they were the first two teams out this week.  Beat someone impressive and they'll be back.

Finally, in the interest of full disclosure, here's our individual ballots:

ragnarok Avinash yellow fever
1. Alabama 1. Miami (FL) 1.       Florida
2. Miami (FL) 2. Cincinnati 2.       Texas
3. Cincinnati 3. Boise State 3.       Alabama
4. Boise State 4. Texas 4.       California
5. Texas 5. Alabama 5.       Miami
6. Florida 6. LSU 6.       Boise State
7. LSU 7. Florida State 7.       Penn State
8. California 8. UCLA 8.       LSU
9. Virginia Tech 9. Florida 9.       Mississippi
10. Michigan 10. Auburn 10.   Cincinnati
11. UCLA 11. Cal 11.   USC
12. Penn State 12. Penn State 12.   Virginia Tech
13. Houston 13. Washington 13.   Ohio State
14. Washington 14. Virginia Tech 14.   Oklahoma
15. USC 15. Nebraska 15.   TCU
16. Florida State 16. USC 16.   Houston
17. Nebraska 17. BYU 17.   Oklahoma State
18. Ohio State 18. Ohio State 18.   Florida State
19. Oregon 19. North Carolina 19.   Kansas
20. BYU 20. Oklahoma 20.   Oregon
21. Oklahoma 21. Houston 21.   BYU
22. Oklahoma State 22. Oklahoma State 22.   UCLA
23. Georgia 23. Georgia 23.   Pittsburgh
24. Utah 24. Michigan 24.   Missouri
25. Iowa 25. Oregon 25.   South Florida

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I think this is the reason I jumped on Auburn

They’re averaging 42 points a game against D-I competition (West Virginia, Mississippi State, and Louisiana Tech). FORTY TWO! AUBURN! They’ve scored forty two points three times in the last five seasons!

I’m not sure if this’ll last, but their resume the first three weeks has been mighty impressive.

Contact if you want to chat: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash Kunnath on Sep 22, 2009 5:16 PM PDT reply actions  

I watched the game against West Virginia, and while Auburn definitely hasn’t gotten the kinks out they’re running the Gus Malzahn hurry-up with BCS athletes. They won’t necessarily set the world on fire this year, but they are going to be a screaming death machine down the road. As of right now, they’re in my favorite teams to watch category along with Miami, Texas Tech, and Michigan. (Also perhaps Georgia Tech if they could get their blocking issues settled, which they won’t.)

"Let me tell you a story. I was a political prisoner for two years. The instant I was released I ran to McDonald's. I had a Big Mac and a Coke.

It was fantastic."
-Toyama Koichi, US Presidential candidate from Japan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGZqOkeYbB0

by AERose on Sep 22, 2009 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

You are aware that Auburn’s 42 a game against D1 competition is less than Cal’s 43.5, right?

Florida State at #7. Is that serious? They have a loss. Yes, they beat a decent BYU team, then again they struggled mightily with a D2 team. That apparently doesn’t matter.

Explain to me why Texas is so high and Florida is so low. Their schedules are identical and their margin of victory is nearly identical.

At some point your poll has to make sense, I’m guessing toward Thanksgiving, I hope.

It'll be just you, me, and Peter Nincompoop.

by BeastMode on Sep 22, 2009 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

They lost to Miami (whose #1 on my ballot) on the final play on a pass that could’ve been caught in the end zone. They had an understandable hangover the next week. They curbstomped BYU in BYU. That’s a pretty worthy 2-1 team, if you ask me.

Texas played a quality Texas Tech team and beat them decisively. To me, UCLA played a better quality game against Tennessee than Florida. So I think there’s a disparity between the two.

Contact if you want to chat: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash Kunnath on Sep 22, 2009 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

FSU had a hangover, yes, against a D2 team. They almost lost to them. That isn’t just a hangover, that’s inexcusable from a Top 10 team.

It'll be just you, me, and Peter Nincompoop.

by BeastMode on Sep 22, 2009 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

Jacksonville State is not D2. They’re actually ranked in the top 20 for FCS teams. They’re not a bad team, and certainly better than a number of FBS teams. FCS is D1, keep that in mind (the difference is technical and has to do with scholarships, but what it really means is that they give out lots of scholarships and play some decent football).

by Missing Barry on Sep 23, 2009 7:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: FSU

They had 2-3 days of practice for Jacksonville State. That as much as anything explains why they played so poorly.

The games against Miami and BYU are much better indicators of their potential. They’re going to score a lot of points this season.

by Nashville on Sep 22, 2009 9:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

There is no point in quibbling over the justifications of these any more, but seriously, I think Avi may be doing these when he’s drunk.

Ucla at #12? How? Because Tenn played Florida "tough’? And how on earth could he say with a straight face that Ucla played Tenn better than Florida did? Whew! This weird subjective/objective thing is confusing.

Mark it "8", Dude.

by SoCal Oski on Sep 22, 2009 6:43 PM PDT reply actions  

Hmmm, maybe Tennessee played Florida better than they played UCLA. I might be mixing converses up.

Contact if you want to chat: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash Kunnath on Sep 22, 2009 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Either way it doesn’t make sense. It’s rewarding Ucla for either Tenn playing poorly against them (which means Ucla isn’t as good as the result indicates), or for Florida not being as good as thought.

The same sort of internal contradictions and logic is in a lot of your picks. I don’t mean to be a pest at all, and your list may well be way more accurate than I think, but I really just don’t get the rationale here.

Mark it "8", Dude.

by SoCal Oski on Sep 22, 2009 6:57 PM PDT reply actions  

We’ll see. My ballots will probably make more sense in a month.

Contact if you want to chat: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash Kunnath on Sep 22, 2009 7:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

I got you Avi, do your thing, just do your thing. Handle your business!

by CaliforniaCMB on Sep 22, 2009 7:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

My ballots will probably make more sense in a month.

When they actually have a large body of data to draw from, yes.

"Let me tell you a story. I was a political prisoner for two years. The instant I was released I ran to McDonald's. I had a Big Mac and a Coke.

It was fantastic."
-Toyama Koichi, US Presidential candidate from Japan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGZqOkeYbB0

by AERose on Sep 22, 2009 7:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

My ballot will make sense when the season is over. Then we will have all the data to work with.

by YleeXOtee on Sep 22, 2009 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Aren’t you the guy who always puts Cal #1???

You say that like it’s a bad thing and we shouldn’t be ranking Cal #1…?!

by Missing Barry on Sep 23, 2009 7:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

Wow

Yeah I thought this was a joke before I started reading comments……turned out the joke was on me. Maybe your ballots are spot on but I highly doubt it, seriously not a fan of “experts” but there is sometimes a bit of knowledge in the herd of sheep @ espn and the ap. How miami, FSU, Cincinnati, and UCLA are ranked above Cal….. I get Miami has played some good competition, but it hasn’t been that impressive especially their defense. I’m not even going to start on Auburn lol. Well I am always interested in opinions concerning ranking so I suppose sometimes I am going to see rankings that are completely fracked.

by finster112 on Sep 22, 2009 8:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hi finster, a lot of people who compile polls do so using different strategies. One of the strategies is known as “resume ranking,” where teams are ranked completely oblivious to preseason notions: only based on the quality of wins they have. by that note, one can easily make the argument that Miami’s wins over Vtech AND FSU (who in turn blasted BYU, who beat UO etc…) are so far more impressive than Cal’s victories over two very mediocre-to-poor BCS opponents and a 1-AA laugher.

What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. What happens in California makes the world go round.

by Spazzy Mcgee on Sep 23, 2009 12:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

I predict we finally win a Blogpoll award of some sort.

The Tyrant Boy-King Is Returning!

www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com

by TwistNHook on Sep 22, 2009 9:15 PM PDT reply actions  

Woohoo, labels of shame awards!

I am a horrible bruin-bear crossbreed.

by GBB4188 on Sep 22, 2009 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

As weird as this one is, there are some truly wacky resume ballots that would win most swing and most divergence. The CGB poll might be closest to winning the award for lowest ranking of your team, cause Cal will probably check in at #4 in the final poll.

Didn’t CGB win the ’Mr. Numb Existence 2 or 3 times last year? When only Rags did the voting?

The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS

by norcalnick on Sep 22, 2009 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

We did win it 2 or 3 times last year, and that was with three voters then, too (although we had CBKWit instead of Avinash’s wacky ballot). Multiple voters tends to smooth out the wacky individual opinions, although Avinash is doing his best to defy that trend.

So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!

by ragnarok on Sep 22, 2009 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Honestly, I’m re-thinking my decision not to do this. I thought that my unimaginable stupidity would ruin this. I see now that Avi has made it virtually impossible for me to do any further damage.

Perhaps I should start voting! I can vote by selecting runes out of a top hat!

The Tyrant Boy-King Is Returning!

www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com

by TwistNHook on Sep 22, 2009 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think if there’s anything I’d want to suck at doing, submitting top 25 ballots is probably the thing I’d sacrifice first.

Contact if you want to chat: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash Kunnath on Sep 23, 2009 12:14 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

5th place in Straight Bangin'

Hooray!

Contact if you want to chat: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash Kunnath on Sep 23, 2009 11:06 AM PDT reply actions  

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