More Hype for our beloved Golden Bears

by SoCal Oski on Sep 2, 2009 8:06 PM PDT

So, it appears that What If? Sports has done this thing where they've simulated every game of the FBS season 10,000 times and have come up with some interesting predictions. Some good, some bad for the Bears.

The good: Cal gets a win at Oregon, Tedford gets his first win in LA, we keep the axe . And, can you say BCS? Cal goes 11-1 on the year and takes on Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.

The bad: $C still beats us. Even at home. Even in October. Even with a freshman at QB.

The ugly: Cal loses to Oklahoma.

Of course, that is still a pretty great season.

The opinions expressed in a FanPost are, in every way, reflective of the opinions of every California Golden Blogs Marshawnthusiast. Moreover, they are reflective of every employee of SBNation, including Tyler "Blez" Bleszinski.

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You know what? I’d take it. I really, really would

So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!

by ragnarok on Sep 2, 2009 9:07 PM PDT reply actions

Totes agree

Where do I sign up to take this?!?

Praise be to Tedford!

by Ohio Bear on Sep 3, 2009 6:04 AM PDT up reply actions

agreed.

"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark

by carp on Sep 3, 2009 7:08 AM PDT up reply actions

Their predicting winning % for Cal:

vs. Maryland – 95%
vs. Eastern Washington – 95%
@ Minnesota – 92.4%
@ Oregon – 72.1%
USC – 6.6%
@ UCLA – 95%
vs. Washington State – 95%
@ Arizona State – 92.4%
vs. Oregon State – 87.7%
vs. Arizona – 88%
@ Stanfurd – 90.7%
@ Washington – 95%
vs. Oklahoma – 9%

I dunno, these percentages just don’t pass the smell test. Too extreme — too many on one side of 90% or the other.

So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!

by ragnarok on Sep 2, 2009 9:17 PM PDT reply actions

One thing I didn’t see (or just didn’t read close enough to see), was what criteria or what platform these guys used to simulate the games.

That being said, the only games on that list that really seem too extreme to me are Oregon. SC, Ucla, and Oklahoma.

Yeah, well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by SoCal Oski on Sep 2, 2009 9:26 PM PDT up reply actions

completely agreed. the percentages would have more credibility if they were in the 65%-85% range.

Interesting concept though.

by chowder on Sep 2, 2009 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions

6.6 and 9% are insane. We have a 95% chance of winning at the Rose Bowl? Seriously?

I think I remember being bored and simulating Cal vs USC 2004 fifteen-twenty times. Cal won once. By a point. So I’m not totally sold on the veracity of this simulator.

Contact if you want to chat: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash Kunnath on Sep 2, 2009 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions

Agreed Rags

The simulator seems to think that Eastern Washington in Berkeley is just as difficult (easy?) as UCLA on the road. As much as I would love for that to be true, I’m not expecting UCLA to have a I-AA type season.

The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS

by norcalnick on Sep 2, 2009 10:10 PM PDT up reply actions

6% vs. USC? That’s ridic. 50/50 or 60/40 is probably better.

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by HydroTech on Sep 2, 2009 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions

I wish it had displayed the average margin or victory/defeat in these cases.

by CaliforniaCMB on Sep 3, 2009 7:30 AM PDT up reply actions

If we go Fiesta Bowl in this simulation

I guess that means USC also has at least one loss and goes to the Rose Bowl?

Praise be to Tedford!

by Ohio Bear on Sep 3, 2009 6:05 AM PDT reply actions

yeah. USC goes 9-0 in the Pac-10, but loses @ Ohio State and goes to the Rose Bowl.

So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!

by ragnarok on Sep 3, 2009 8:04 AM PDT up reply actions

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Golden Bears Football Schedule

Fresno St.	Sat 09/03	W 36 - 21
@ Colorado The Ralphie Report	Sat 09/10	W 36 - 33
Presbyterian	Sat 09/17	W 63 - 12
@ Washington UW Dawg Pound	Sat 09/24	L 23 - 31
@ Oregon Addicted To Quack	Thu 10/06	L 15 - 43
USC Conquest Chronicles	Thu 10/13	L 9 - 30
Utah Block U	Sat 10/22	W 34 - 10
@ UCLA Bruins Nation	Sat 10/29	L 14 - 31
Washington St. CougCenter	Sat 11/05	W 30 - 7
Oregon St. Building The Dam	Sat 11/12	W 23 - 6
@ Stanford Rule Of Tree	Sat 11/19	L 28 - 31
@ Arizona St. House Of Sparky	Fri 11/25	W 47 - 38
@ Texas Burnt Orange Nation	Wed 12/28	L 10 - 21

Pacific-12 Conference Standings

(updated 1.2.2012 at 11:12 PM PST)

North	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
Oregon Ducks Addicted To Quack	8	1	12	2
Stanford Cardinal Rule Of Tree	8	1	11	2
Washington Huskies UW Dawg Pound	5	4	7	6
California Golden Bears California Golden Blogs	4	5	7	6
Oregon St. Beavers Building The Dam	3	6	3	9
Washington St. Cougars CougCenter	2	7	4	8

South	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
USC Trojans Conquest Chronicles	7	2	10	2
UCLA Bruins Bruins Nation	5	4	6	8
Utah Utes Block U	4	5	8	5
Arizona St. Sun Devils House Of Sparky	4	5	6	7
Arizona Wildcats Arizona Desert Swarm	2	7	4	8
Colorado Buffaloes The Ralphie Report	2	7	3	10