I love football statistics (yes, I am a huge nerd). Having spent a fair amount of time looking at Cal's Tedford-era numbers, and having seen much wailing and gnashing of teeth regarding certain game situations (playing UCLA in LA, playing OSU at home, etc.), I thought it would be interesting to break down our performance at home and away against each of the other Pac-10 schools.
For obvious reasons, I'm using 2002-2008 data. Big shoutout to Royrules for sharing his data with me.
Team-by-Team Statistics 2002-2008
To give this some context, here are conference records, PPG/rushing/passing numbers for each Pac-10 team by year. The top 3 in each category are bolded (top 1 would just be a lot of USC).
Pac-10 Record
Arizona | 19 | 40 | 32.20% |
Arizona State | 32 | 28 | 53.33% |
California | 36 | 23 | 61.02% |
Oregon | 36 | 24 | 60.00% |
Oregon State | 35 | 24 | 59.32% |
Stanford | 17 | 42 | 28.81% |
UCLA | 31 | 28 | 52.54% |
USC | 52 | 7 | 88.14% |
Washington | 14 | 45 | 23.73% |
Washington State | 25 | 34 | 42.37% |
Offensive PPG
PPG (Offense) | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | Average |
Arizona | 18.92 | 15.1 | 14.9 | 22.9 | 16.6 | 28 | 36.6 | 21.86 |
Arizona State | 32.29 | 24.8 | 29.8 | 36.8 | 26.8 | 32.3 | 22.8 | 29.37 |
California | 35.58 | 32.6 | 36.8 | 32.9 | 32.8 | 29.3 | 32.6 | 33.23 |
Oregon | 32.08 | 27.4 | 25.6 | 34.5 | 29.5 | 38.2 | 41.9 | 32.74 |
Oregon State | 31.85 | 33.3 | 26.7 | 26.6 | 27.8 | 27.8 | 30.5 | 29.22 |
Stanford | 20.45 | 16.9 | 22 | 24.5 | 10.6 | 19.6 | 26.3 | 20.05 |
UCLA | 29.77 | 19.1 | 30.1 | 39.1 | 23 | 22.4 | 17.7 | 25.88 |
USC | 35.77 | 41.1 | 38.2 | 49.1 | 30.5 | 32.6 | 37.5 | 37.82 |
Washington | 30.62 | 26 | 14 | 21.5 | 21.8 | 29.2 | 13.3 | 22.35 |
Washington State | 33.15 | 30.3 | 25 | 33.5 | 24.6 | 25.7 | 12.7 | 26.42 |
Points of Interest:
- The 2005 Trojans were pretty ridiculous.
- Cal's PPG is pretty consistent, more so than that of Oregon (although Oregon's PPG the last two years is scary good).
Opponent PPG
PPG (Defense) | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | Average |
Arizona | 25.83 | 35.75 | 25 | 26.4 | 19.6 | 26.8 | 21.3 | 25.81 |
Arizona State | 29.07 | 27.33 | 24.5 | 29.9 | 25.1 | 22.5 | 22.7 | 25.87 |
California | 26.5 | 24.36 | 16 | 21.2 | 19.3 | 26.8 | 19.9 | 22.01 |
Oregon | 27.85 | 26.77 | 25.6 | 23.2 | 26.5 | 23.6 | 28.2 | 25.96 |
Oregon State | 20.54 | 23.15 | 24.5 | 33.2 | 22.2 | 22.6 | 23.1 | 24.18 |
Stanford | 34.27 | 29.45 | 21.2 | 30.6 | 31.4 | 28.3 | 27.4 | 28.95 |
UCLA | 25.08 | 23.46 | 25.8 | 34.2 | 19.9 | 22.3 | 29 | 25.68 |
USC | 18.46 | 18.38 | 13 | 22.8 | 15.2 | 16 | 9 | 16.12 |
Washington | 26.31 | 26.33 | 30.4 | 30.6 | 25.9 | 31.6 | 38.6 | 29.96 |
Washington State | 22.77 | 19.77 | 27.9 | 31.5 | 23.1 | 32.4 | 43.8 | 28.75 |
Points of Interest:
- The 2004 Trojans were also ridiculous. The 2008 Trojans...um...yeah.
- Cal's average opponent PPG during the Tedford era is quite a bit lower than anyone else's (apart from USC, of course). 2 points less than OSU may not look like much, but given how closely bunched together all the others are, I think it's at least somewhat significant. If you looked at 2004-2008 this would be even more true.
Passing YPG
Passing Offense | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | Average |
Arizona | 289.75 | 183.67 | 170.5 | 229.3 | 168.7 | 308.5 | 244 | 227.77 |
Arizona State | 303.86 | 274.25 | 317.3 | 373.4 | 197.6 | 262.6 | 220.3 | 278.47 |
California | 247.58 | 264.64 | 235.7 | 192.7 | 253.2 | 241.8 | 189.8 | 232.20 |
Oregon | 227.62 | 252.92 | 238.3 | 304.5 | 241 | 215.8 | 204.8 | 240.71 |
Oregon State | 262.62 | 328.08 | 308.8 | 296.5 | 242.4 | 196.7 | 249 | 269.16 |
Stanford | 178.18 | 187.18 | 247.3 | 223.9 | 166.8 | 211.3 | 152.2 | 195.27 |
UCLA | 229.62 | 203 | 225.1 | 270.3 | 200.3 | 182.6 | 200.5 | 215.92 |
USC | 306.77 | 291.62 | 271.7 | 319.8 | 263.8 | 237.7 | 259.8 | 278.74 |
Washington | 346.23 | 269.67 | 190.8 | 222.8 | 193.8 | 191.2 | 163.8 | 225.47 |
Washington State | 292.69 | 271.23 | 240.6 | 277.3 | 259.8 | 319.7 | 146 | 258.19 |
- Cal seems to be in the middle of the pack here. There doesn't seem to be a particularly strong correlation between passing offense and overall success.
Opponent Passing YPG
Passing Defense | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | Average |
Arizona | 224.33 | 279.25 | 255.5 | 225.1 | 206.6 | 234.2 | 181.9 | 229.55 |
Arizona State | 244.29 | 253.92 | 236 | 289 | 210.3 | 227.8 | 208.7 | 238.57 |
California | 278.83 | 251.14 | 238.4 | 240.4 | 240.8 | 214.4 | 193 | 236.71 |
Oregon | 291.15 | 259.92 | 216.8 | 223.8 | 170.6 | 249.2 | 270.2 | 240.24 |
Oregon State | 199.31 | 204.31 | 196 | 298.7 | 223.7 | 235.5 | 180.9 | 219.77 |
Stanford | 252 | 296.27 | 248.9 | 285.9 | 177 | 265.5 | 226.7 | 250.32 |
UCLA | 228.23 | 200.69 | 222.8 | 235.3 | 223.4 | 234.1 | 167.7 | 216.03 |
USC | 201.77 | 276.23 | 199.9 | 230.4 | 204.8 | 189 | 134.4 | 205.21 |
Washington | 259.46 | 233.42 | 185.8 | 275.7 | 240.2 | 261.4 | 211.2 | 238.17 |
Washington State | 255.23 | 227.69 | 233.2 | 289.1 | 243.1 | 257.7 | 195.8 | 243.12 |
- Cal clearly improving here.
- 2008 seems particularly pass-unfriendly across the board.
Rushing YPG
Rushing Offense | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | Average |
Arizona | 43.83 | 123.83 | 118.4 | 122 | 84.2 | 76.8 | 158.4 | 103.92 |
Arizona State | 89 | 117.33 | 118.1 | 145.7 | 169.7 | 137.3 | 89.1 | 123.75 |
California | 108 | 168.29 | 256.8 | 235.3 | 162.8 | 165.7 | 186.2 | 183.30 |
Oregon | 145.62 | 131.92 | 158.7 | 134.3 | 181.8 | 251.7 | 280.1 | 183.45 |
Oregon State | 148.69 | 134.92 | 70.7 | 122.5 | 118.2 | 174.9 | 158.1 | 132.57 |
Stanford | 133.18 | 95.82 | 81.2 | 92.3 | 65.1 | 111.2 | 199.6 | 111.20 |
UCLA | 127.54 | 91.92 | 184.9 | 160.7 | 129.8 | 151 | 82.8 | 132.67 |
USC | 142.46 | 155.92 | 177.4 | 260 | 128 | 197.2 | 194.8 | 179.40 |
Washington | 74.46 | 119.5 | 120.2 | 135.2 | 127.9 | 203.1 | 99.3 | 125.67 |
Washington State | 129.23 | 115 | 128 | 212 | 128.3 | 115.9 | 95.1 | 131.93 |
- Cal in 04-05 and Oregon in 07-08 put up way more yards than anyone else over this period.
- Overall Cal, Oregon and USC are bunched very closely together - and almost 50 yards/game more than anyone else.
Opponent Rushing YPG
Rushing Defense | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | Average |
Arizona | 161.83 | 180.75 | 123.91 | 183.73 | 119.67 | 138 | 131.08 | 148.42 |
Arizona State | 119.36 | 150.83 | 122.92 | 179.75 | 117.62 | 117.31 | 126.33 | 133.45 |
California | 114 | 133.71 | 82.5 | 119.17 | 125.38 | 164.46 | 122.23 | 123.06 |
Oregon | 118.15 | 107.08 | 122.09 | 133.92 | 151.46 | 132.77 | 119.38 | 126.41 |
Oregon State | 94.23 | 84.38 | 117.33 | 108 | 110.14 | 70.69 | 131.23 | 102.29 |
Stanford | 132.73 | 137.55 | 143.36 | 156 | 210.5 | 169.92 | 152.92 | 157.57 |
UCLA | 129.54 | 116.92 | 210.08 | 232.75 | 91.08 | 109.15 | 169.75 | 151.32 |
USC | 83.15 | 60.15 | 79.38 | 130.54 | 91.08 | 84.15 | 87.38 | 87.98 |
Washington | 97.69 | 151.58 | 183.64 | 143.36 | 139.17 | 185 | 240.58 | 163.00 |
Washington State | 87.23 | 90.85 | 133.45 | 153.55 | 114.08 | 163.42 | 247.62 | 141.46 |
- 2007 notwithstanding, Cal has clearly been consistently successful against the run.
- Pretty impressive numbers from OSU, particularly in 2007.
Turnover Margin (by season)
Turnover Margin | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | |
Arizona | -7 | -5 | 3 | -9 | 7 | 0 | 6 | -0.71 |
Arizona State | 4 | -4 | 5 | 7 | -1 | 3 | 5 | 2.71 |
California | 18 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 6 | -3 | 15 | 5.00 |
Oregon | 5 | -5 | -2 | 13 | -10 | 9 | 5 | 2.14 |
Oregon State | 8 | -8 | 3 | -14 | 8 | 0 | 1 | -0.29 |
Stanford | -5 | 1 | 8 | 4 | -11 | 2 | -4 | -0.71 |
UCLA | 2 | -1 | -7 | 6 | 4 | -4 | -10 | -1.43 |
USC | 18 | 20 | 19 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13.00 |
Washington | 1 | -4 | -19 | -3 | -8 | -1 | -17 | -7.29 |
Washington State | -4 | 8 | -1 | -5 | 6 | -2 | -25 | -3.29 |
- Despite Joe and Nate's excellent adventure(s), Cal has done a great job keeping the turnover margin positive.
Cal's record against each Pac-10 opponent 2002-2008
Arizona (4-3)
# | Pts | Opp Pts | Pass Yds | Opp PYds | Rush Yds | Opp RYds | Total Yds | Opp Yds | TO |
Average | 34.43 | 22.71 | 231.29 | 251.00 | 167.57 | 82.71 | 398.86 | 333.71 | 0.14 |
Home (3-1) | 39.00 | 23.25 | 196.75 | 292.75 | 191.25 | 63.50 | 388.00 | 356.25 | 1.00 |
Away (1-2) | 28.33 | 22.00 | 277.33 | 195.33 | 136.00 | 108.33 | 413.33 | 303.67 | -1.00 |
Arizona State (5-1)
# | Pts | Opp Pts | Pass Yds | Opp PYds | Rush Yds | Opp RYds | Total Yds | Opp Yds | TO |
Average | 37.67 | 21.17 | 238.00 | 254.83 | 156.00 | 112.17 | 394.00 | 367.00 | 2.33 |
Home (3-0) | 33.33 | 11.67 | 211.00 | 193.33 | 150.67 | 144.33 | 361.67 | 337.67 | 3.33 |
Away (2-1) | 42.00 | 30.67 | 265.00 | 316.33 | 161.33 | 80.00 | 426.33 | 396.33 | 1.33 |
Oregon (4-2)
# | Pts | Opp Pts | Pass Yds | Opp PYds | Rush Yds | Opp RYds | Total Yds | Opp Yds | TO |
Average | 27.83 | 23.17 | 206.83 | 225.33 | 170.00 | 140.83 | 376.83 | 366.17 | -0.17 |
Home (3-0) | 33.00 | 22.33 | 226.67 | 196.67 | 195.33 | 139.00 | 422.00 | 335.67 | -0.33 |
Away (1-2) | 22.67 | 24.00 | 187.00 | 254.00 | 144.67 | 142.67 | 331.67 | 396.67 | 0.00 |
Oregon State (2-5)
# | Pts | Opp Pts | Pass Yds | Opp PYds | Rush Yds | Opp RYds | Total Yds | Opp Yds | TO |
Average | 27.57 | 23.86 | 233.57 | 183.71 | 120.43 | 177.86 | 354.00 | 361.57 | -0.71 |
Home (0-3) | 23.00 | 29.67 | 195.33 | 202.00 | 148.00 | 201.00 | 343.33 | 403.00 | -1.33 |
Away (2-2) | 31.00 | 19.50 | 262.25 | 170.00 | 99.75 | 160.50 | 362.00 | 330.50 | -0.25 |
Stanford (6-1)
# | Pts | Opp Pts | Pass Yds | Opp PYds | Rush Yds | Opp RYds | Total Yds | Opp Yds | TO |
Average | 28.86 | 12.14 | 203.29 | 210.00 | 206.86 | 74.14 | 410.14 | 284.14 | 0.43 |
Home (4-0) | 33.50 | 11.50 | 168.25 | 209.75 | 235.00 | 76.50 | 403.25 | 286.25 | 1.75 |
Away (2-1) | 22.67 | 13.00 | 250.00 | 210.33 | 169.33 | 71.00 | 419.33 | 281.33 | -1.33 |
UCLA (4-3)
# | Pts | Opp Pts | Pass Yds | Opp PYds | Rush Yds | Opp RYds | Total Yds | Opp Yds | TO |
Average | 31.71 | 26.29 | 225.86 | 235.71 | 171.57 | 102.71 | 397.43 | 338.43 | 1.00 |
Home (4-0) | 35.25 | 21.00 | 203.00 | 265.50 | 182.25 | 77.75 | 385.25 | 343.25 | 2.00 |
Away (0-3) | 27.00 | 33.33 | 256.33 | 196.00 | 157.33 | 136.00 | 413.67 | 332.00 | -0.33 |
USC (1-6)
# | Pts | Opp Pts | Pass Yds | Opp PYds | Rush Yds | Opp RYds | Total Yds | Opp Yds | TO |
Average | 16.43 | 25.14 | 208.43 | 225.86 | 126.14 | 147.86 | 334.57 | 373.71 | -1.57 |
Home (1-2) | 19.33 | 27.67 | 219.00 | 217.33 | 170.00 | 175.33 | 389.00 | 392.67 | -2.00 |
Away (0-4) | 14.25 | 23.25 | 200.50 | 232.25 | 93.25 | 127.25 | 293.75 | 359.50 | -1.25 |
Washington (6-1)
# | Pts | Opp Pts | Pass Yds | Opp PYds | Rush Yds | Opp RYds | Total Yds | Opp Yds | TO |
Average | 41.14 | 18.71 | 243.57 | 253.57 | 267.00 | 118.29 | 510.57 | 371.86 | 1.86 |
Home (3-0) | 44.33 | 12.67 | 252.33 | 213.00 | 335.67 | 100.00 | 588.00 | 313.00 | 4.00 |
Away (3-1) | 38.75 | 23.25 | 237.00 | 284.00 | 215.50 | 132.00 | 452.50 | 416.00 | 0.25 |
Washington State (4-1)
# | Pts | Opp Pts | Pass Yds | Opp PYds | Rush Yds | Opp RYds | Total Yds | Opp Yds | TO |
Average | 37.40 | 21.80 | 230.20 | 314.80 | 221.80 | 95.80 | 452.00 | 410.60 | -0.20 |
Home (2-1) | 33.33 | 34.33 | 287.00 | 400.67 | 180.33 | 111.33 | 467.33 | 512.00 | -1.00 |
Away (2-0) | 43.50 | 3.00 | 145.00 | 186.00 | 284.00 | 72.50 | 429.00 | 258.50 | 1.00 |
There are some interesting pieces of information in here. For example, despite our losing record against UCLA on the road, it seems that yardage-wise location doesn't have a huge impact on how we do. The turnover margin, on the other hand, is definitely better at home.
That illustrates a couple of issues to keep in mind when looking at these numbers:
1. Sample sizes are tiny
2. It's difficult to determine causality.
Having said that, I think there is some interesting data in here. A couple of things that jump out at me:
- There seems to be little correlation between offensive PPG and Cal's conference record
- The opposite is true for defensive PPG
- Rushing offense/defense seems somewhat more closely correlated than passing
- Our passing defense seems to be trending better; our rushing defense does not - but it's pretty good to begin with
- Despite the 4-3 record against Arizona, we have done well against them on paper. Some of this might be skewed by the high scoring games in (if I recall correctly) 2002 and 2003.
- While our yardage numbers are similar to those of ASU, the scoring and turnover numbers are not.
- We're very evenly matched with Oregon.
- Somewhat bizarrely, when we play OSU the away team seems to do better. This is probably a function of low sample size.
- Stanford sucks, even when we spot them a couple of turnovers.
- The UCLA numbers are weird. I don't really know what to make of them.