Cal vs. the Pac-10 in the Tedford Era
I love football statistics (yes, I am a huge nerd). Having spent a fair amount of time looking at Cal's Tedford-era numbers, and having seen much wailing and gnashing of teeth regarding certain game situations (playing UCLA in LA, playing OSU at home, etc.), I thought it would be interesting to break down our performance at home and away against each of the other Pac-10 schools.
For obvious reasons, I'm using 2002-2008 data. Big shoutout to Royrules for sharing his data with me.
Team-by-Team Statistics 2002-2008
To give this some context, here are conference records, PPG/rushing/passing numbers for each Pac-10 team by year. The top 3 in each category are bolded (top 1 would just be a lot of USC).
Pac-10 Record
| Arizona | 19 | 40 | 32.20% |
| Arizona State | 32 | 28 | 53.33% |
| California | 36 | 23 | 61.02% |
| Oregon | 36 | 24 | 60.00% |
| Oregon State | 35 | 24 | 59.32% |
| Stanford | 17 | 42 | 28.81% |
| UCLA | 31 | 28 | 52.54% |
| USC | 52 | 7 | 88.14% |
| Washington | 14 | 45 | 23.73% |
| Washington State | 25 | 34 | 42.37% |
Offensive PPG
| PPG (Offense) | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | Average |
| Arizona | 18.92 | 15.1 | 14.9 | 22.9 | 16.6 | 28 | 36.6 | 21.86 |
| Arizona State | 32.29 | 24.8 | 29.8 | 36.8 | 26.8 | 32.3 | 22.8 | 29.37 |
| California | 35.58 | 32.6 | 36.8 | 32.9 | 32.8 | 29.3 | 32.6 | 33.23 |
| Oregon | 32.08 | 27.4 | 25.6 | 34.5 | 29.5 | 38.2 | 41.9 | 32.74 |
| Oregon State | 31.85 | 33.3 | 26.7 | 26.6 | 27.8 | 27.8 | 30.5 | 29.22 |
| Stanford | 20.45 | 16.9 | 22 | 24.5 | 10.6 | 19.6 | 26.3 | 20.05 |
| UCLA | 29.77 | 19.1 | 30.1 | 39.1 | 23 | 22.4 | 17.7 | 25.88 |
| USC | 35.77 | 41.1 | 38.2 | 49.1 | 30.5 | 32.6 | 37.5 | 37.82 |
| Washington | 30.62 | 26 | 14 | 21.5 | 21.8 | 29.2 | 13.3 | 22.35 |
| Washington State | 33.15 | 30.3 | 25 | 33.5 | 24.6 | 25.7 | 12.7 | 26.42 |
Points of Interest:
- The 2005 Trojans were pretty ridiculous.
- Cal's PPG is pretty consistent, more so than that of Oregon (although Oregon's PPG the last two years is scary good).
Opponent PPG
| PPG (Defense) | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | Average |
| Arizona | 25.83 | 35.75 | 25 | 26.4 | 19.6 | 26.8 | 21.3 | 25.81 |
| Arizona State | 29.07 | 27.33 | 24.5 | 29.9 | 25.1 | 22.5 | 22.7 | 25.87 |
| California | 26.5 | 24.36 | 16 | 21.2 | 19.3 | 26.8 | 19.9 | 22.01 |
| Oregon | 27.85 | 26.77 | 25.6 | 23.2 | 26.5 | 23.6 | 28.2 | 25.96 |
| Oregon State | 20.54 | 23.15 | 24.5 | 33.2 | 22.2 | 22.6 | 23.1 | 24.18 |
| Stanford | 34.27 | 29.45 | 21.2 | 30.6 | 31.4 | 28.3 | 27.4 | 28.95 |
| UCLA | 25.08 | 23.46 | 25.8 | 34.2 | 19.9 | 22.3 | 29 | 25.68 |
| USC | 18.46 | 18.38 | 13 | 22.8 | 15.2 | 16 | 9 | 16.12 |
| Washington | 26.31 | 26.33 | 30.4 | 30.6 | 25.9 | 31.6 | 38.6 | 29.96 |
| Washington State | 22.77 | 19.77 | 27.9 | 31.5 | 23.1 | 32.4 | 43.8 | 28.75 |
Points of Interest:
- The 2004 Trojans were also ridiculous. The 2008 Trojans...um...yeah.
- Cal's average opponent PPG during the Tedford era is quite a bit lower than anyone else's (apart from USC, of course). 2 points less than OSU may not look like much, but given how closely bunched together all the others are, I think it's at least somewhat significant. If you looked at 2004-2008 this would be even more true.
Passing YPG
| Passing Offense | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | Average |
| Arizona | 289.75 | 183.67 | 170.5 | 229.3 | 168.7 | 308.5 | 244 | 227.77 |
| Arizona State | 303.86 | 274.25 | 317.3 | 373.4 | 197.6 | 262.6 | 220.3 | 278.47 |
| California | 247.58 | 264.64 | 235.7 | 192.7 | 253.2 | 241.8 | 189.8 | 232.20 |
| Oregon | 227.62 | 252.92 | 238.3 | 304.5 | 241 | 215.8 | 204.8 | 240.71 |
| Oregon State | 262.62 | 328.08 | 308.8 | 296.5 | 242.4 | 196.7 | 249 | 269.16 |
| Stanford | 178.18 | 187.18 | 247.3 | 223.9 | 166.8 | 211.3 | 152.2 | 195.27 |
| UCLA | 229.62 | 203 | 225.1 | 270.3 | 200.3 | 182.6 | 200.5 | 215.92 |
| USC | 306.77 | 291.62 | 271.7 | 319.8 | 263.8 | 237.7 | 259.8 | 278.74 |
| Washington | 346.23 | 269.67 | 190.8 | 222.8 | 193.8 | 191.2 | 163.8 | 225.47 |
| Washington State | 292.69 | 271.23 | 240.6 | 277.3 | 259.8 | 319.7 | 146 | 258.19 |
- Cal seems to be in the middle of the pack here. There doesn't seem to be a particularly strong correlation between passing offense and overall success.
Opponent Passing YPG
| Passing Defense | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | Average |
| Arizona | 224.33 | 279.25 | 255.5 | 225.1 | 206.6 | 234.2 | 181.9 | 229.55 |
| Arizona State | 244.29 | 253.92 | 236 | 289 | 210.3 | 227.8 | 208.7 | 238.57 |
| California | 278.83 | 251.14 | 238.4 | 240.4 | 240.8 | 214.4 | 193 | 236.71 |
| Oregon | 291.15 | 259.92 | 216.8 | 223.8 | 170.6 | 249.2 | 270.2 | 240.24 |
| Oregon State | 199.31 | 204.31 | 196 | 298.7 | 223.7 | 235.5 | 180.9 | 219.77 |
| Stanford | 252 | 296.27 | 248.9 | 285.9 | 177 | 265.5 | 226.7 | 250.32 |
| UCLA | 228.23 | 200.69 | 222.8 | 235.3 | 223.4 | 234.1 | 167.7 | 216.03 |
| USC | 201.77 | 276.23 | 199.9 | 230.4 | 204.8 | 189 | 134.4 | 205.21 |
| Washington | 259.46 | 233.42 | 185.8 | 275.7 | 240.2 | 261.4 | 211.2 | 238.17 |
| Washington State | 255.23 | 227.69 | 233.2 | 289.1 | 243.1 | 257.7 | 195.8 | 243.12 |
- Cal clearly improving here.
- 2008 seems particularly pass-unfriendly across the board.
Rushing YPG
| Rushing Offense | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | Average |
| Arizona | 43.83 | 123.83 | 118.4 | 122 | 84.2 | 76.8 | 158.4 | 103.92 |
| Arizona State | 89 | 117.33 | 118.1 | 145.7 | 169.7 | 137.3 | 89.1 | 123.75 |
| California | 108 | 168.29 | 256.8 | 235.3 | 162.8 | 165.7 | 186.2 | 183.30 |
| Oregon | 145.62 | 131.92 | 158.7 | 134.3 | 181.8 | 251.7 | 280.1 | 183.45 |
| Oregon State | 148.69 | 134.92 | 70.7 | 122.5 | 118.2 | 174.9 | 158.1 | 132.57 |
| Stanford | 133.18 | 95.82 | 81.2 | 92.3 | 65.1 | 111.2 | 199.6 | 111.20 |
| UCLA | 127.54 | 91.92 | 184.9 | 160.7 | 129.8 | 151 | 82.8 | 132.67 |
| USC | 142.46 | 155.92 | 177.4 | 260 | 128 | 197.2 | 194.8 | 179.40 |
| Washington | 74.46 | 119.5 | 120.2 | 135.2 | 127.9 | 203.1 | 99.3 | 125.67 |
| Washington State | 129.23 | 115 | 128 | 212 | 128.3 | 115.9 | 95.1 | 131.93 |
- Cal in 04-05 and Oregon in 07-08 put up way more yards than anyone else over this period.
- Overall Cal, Oregon and USC are bunched very closely together - and almost 50 yards/game more than anyone else.
Opponent Rushing YPG
| Rushing Defense | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | Average |
| Arizona | 161.83 | 180.75 | 123.91 | 183.73 | 119.67 | 138 | 131.08 | 148.42 |
| Arizona State | 119.36 | 150.83 | 122.92 | 179.75 | 117.62 | 117.31 | 126.33 | 133.45 |
| California | 114 | 133.71 | 82.5 | 119.17 | 125.38 | 164.46 | 122.23 | 123.06 |
| Oregon | 118.15 | 107.08 | 122.09 | 133.92 | 151.46 | 132.77 | 119.38 | 126.41 |
| Oregon State | 94.23 | 84.38 | 117.33 | 108 | 110.14 | 70.69 | 131.23 | 102.29 |
| Stanford | 132.73 | 137.55 | 143.36 | 156 | 210.5 | 169.92 | 152.92 | 157.57 |
| UCLA | 129.54 | 116.92 | 210.08 | 232.75 | 91.08 | 109.15 | 169.75 | 151.32 |
| USC | 83.15 | 60.15 | 79.38 | 130.54 | 91.08 | 84.15 | 87.38 | 87.98 |
| Washington | 97.69 | 151.58 | 183.64 | 143.36 | 139.17 | 185 | 240.58 | 163.00 |
| Washington State | 87.23 | 90.85 | 133.45 | 153.55 | 114.08 | 163.42 | 247.62 | 141.46 |
- 2007 notwithstanding, Cal has clearly been consistently successful against the run.
- Pretty impressive numbers from OSU, particularly in 2007.
Turnover Margin (by season)
| Turnover Margin | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | |
| Arizona | -7 | -5 | 3 | -9 | 7 | 0 | 6 | -0.71 |
| Arizona State | 4 | -4 | 5 | 7 | -1 | 3 | 5 | 2.71 |
| California | 18 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 6 | -3 | 15 | 5.00 |
| Oregon | 5 | -5 | -2 | 13 | -10 | 9 | 5 | 2.14 |
| Oregon State | 8 | -8 | 3 | -14 | 8 | 0 | 1 | -0.29 |
| Stanford | -5 | 1 | 8 | 4 | -11 | 2 | -4 | -0.71 |
| UCLA | 2 | -1 | -7 | 6 | 4 | -4 | -10 | -1.43 |
| USC | 18 | 20 | 19 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13.00 |
| Washington | 1 | -4 | -19 | -3 | -8 | -1 | -17 | -7.29 |
| Washington State | -4 | 8 | -1 | -5 | 6 | -2 | -25 | -3.29 |
- Despite Joe and Nate's excellent adventure(s), Cal has done a great job keeping the turnover margin positive.
Cal's record against each Pac-10 opponent 2002-2008
Arizona (4-3)
| # | Pts | Opp Pts | Pass Yds | Opp PYds | Rush Yds | Opp RYds | Total Yds | Opp Yds | TO |
| Average | 34.43 | 22.71 | 231.29 | 251.00 | 167.57 | 82.71 | 398.86 | 333.71 | 0.14 |
| Home (3-1) | 39.00 | 23.25 | 196.75 | 292.75 | 191.25 | 63.50 | 388.00 | 356.25 | 1.00 |
| Away (1-2) | 28.33 | 22.00 | 277.33 | 195.33 | 136.00 | 108.33 | 413.33 | 303.67 | -1.00 |
Arizona State (5-1)
| # | Pts | Opp Pts | Pass Yds | Opp PYds | Rush Yds | Opp RYds | Total Yds | Opp Yds | TO |
| Average | 37.67 | 21.17 | 238.00 | 254.83 | 156.00 | 112.17 | 394.00 | 367.00 | 2.33 |
| Home (3-0) | 33.33 | 11.67 | 211.00 | 193.33 | 150.67 | 144.33 | 361.67 | 337.67 | 3.33 |
| Away (2-1) | 42.00 | 30.67 | 265.00 | 316.33 | 161.33 | 80.00 | 426.33 | 396.33 | 1.33 |
Oregon (4-2)
| # | Pts | Opp Pts | Pass Yds | Opp PYds | Rush Yds | Opp RYds | Total Yds | Opp Yds | TO |
| Average | 27.83 | 23.17 | 206.83 | 225.33 | 170.00 | 140.83 | 376.83 | 366.17 | -0.17 |
| Home (3-0) | 33.00 | 22.33 | 226.67 | 196.67 | 195.33 | 139.00 | 422.00 | 335.67 | -0.33 |
| Away (1-2) | 22.67 | 24.00 | 187.00 | 254.00 | 144.67 | 142.67 | 331.67 | 396.67 | 0.00 |
Oregon State (2-5)
| # | Pts | Opp Pts | Pass Yds | Opp PYds | Rush Yds | Opp RYds | Total Yds | Opp Yds | TO |
| Average | 27.57 | 23.86 | 233.57 | 183.71 | 120.43 | 177.86 | 354.00 | 361.57 | -0.71 |
| Home (0-3) | 23.00 | 29.67 | 195.33 | 202.00 | 148.00 | 201.00 | 343.33 | 403.00 | -1.33 |
| Away (2-2) | 31.00 | 19.50 | 262.25 | 170.00 | 99.75 | 160.50 | 362.00 | 330.50 | -0.25 |
Stanford (6-1)
| # | Pts | Opp Pts | Pass Yds | Opp PYds | Rush Yds | Opp RYds | Total Yds | Opp Yds | TO |
| Average | 28.86 | 12.14 | 203.29 | 210.00 | 206.86 | 74.14 | 410.14 | 284.14 | 0.43 |
| Home (4-0) | 33.50 | 11.50 | 168.25 | 209.75 | 235.00 | 76.50 | 403.25 | 286.25 | 1.75 |
| Away (2-1) | 22.67 | 13.00 | 250.00 | 210.33 | 169.33 | 71.00 | 419.33 | 281.33 | -1.33 |
UCLA (4-3)
| # | Pts | Opp Pts | Pass Yds | Opp PYds | Rush Yds | Opp RYds | Total Yds | Opp Yds | TO |
| Average | 31.71 | 26.29 | 225.86 | 235.71 | 171.57 | 102.71 | 397.43 | 338.43 | 1.00 |
| Home (4-0) | 35.25 | 21.00 | 203.00 | 265.50 | 182.25 | 77.75 | 385.25 | 343.25 | 2.00 |
| Away (0-3) | 27.00 | 33.33 | 256.33 | 196.00 | 157.33 | 136.00 | 413.67 | 332.00 | -0.33 |
USC (1-6)
| # | Pts | Opp Pts | Pass Yds | Opp PYds | Rush Yds | Opp RYds | Total Yds | Opp Yds | TO |
| Average | 16.43 | 25.14 | 208.43 | 225.86 | 126.14 | 147.86 | 334.57 | 373.71 | -1.57 |
| Home (1-2) | 19.33 | 27.67 | 219.00 | 217.33 | 170.00 | 175.33 | 389.00 | 392.67 | -2.00 |
| Away (0-4) | 14.25 | 23.25 | 200.50 | 232.25 | 93.25 | 127.25 | 293.75 | 359.50 | -1.25 |
Washington (6-1)
| # | Pts | Opp Pts | Pass Yds | Opp PYds | Rush Yds | Opp RYds | Total Yds | Opp Yds | TO |
| Average | 41.14 | 18.71 | 243.57 | 253.57 | 267.00 | 118.29 | 510.57 | 371.86 | 1.86 |
| Home (3-0) | 44.33 | 12.67 | 252.33 | 213.00 | 335.67 | 100.00 | 588.00 | 313.00 | 4.00 |
| Away (3-1) | 38.75 | 23.25 | 237.00 | 284.00 | 215.50 | 132.00 | 452.50 | 416.00 | 0.25 |
Washington State (4-1)
| # | Pts | Opp Pts | Pass Yds | Opp PYds | Rush Yds | Opp RYds | Total Yds | Opp Yds | TO |
| Average | 37.40 | 21.80 | 230.20 | 314.80 | 221.80 | 95.80 | 452.00 | 410.60 | -0.20 |
| Home (2-1) | 33.33 | 34.33 | 287.00 | 400.67 | 180.33 | 111.33 | 467.33 | 512.00 | -1.00 |
| Away (2-0) | 43.50 | 3.00 | 145.00 | 186.00 | 284.00 | 72.50 | 429.00 | 258.50 | 1.00 |
There are some interesting pieces of information in here. For example, despite our losing record against UCLA on the road, it seems that yardage-wise location doesn't have a huge impact on how we do. The turnover margin, on the other hand, is definitely better at home.
That illustrates a couple of issues to keep in mind when looking at these numbers:
1. Sample sizes are tiny
2. It's difficult to determine causality.
Having said that, I think there is some interesting data in here. A couple of things that jump out at me:
- There seems to be little correlation between offensive PPG and Cal's conference record
- The opposite is true for defensive PPG
- Rushing offense/defense seems somewhat more closely correlated than passing
- Our passing defense seems to be trending better; our rushing defense does not - but it's pretty good to begin with
- Despite the 4-3 record against Arizona, we have done well against them on paper. Some of this might be skewed by the high scoring games in (if I recall correctly) 2002 and 2003.
- While our yardage numbers are similar to those of ASU, the scoring and turnover numbers are not.
- We're very evenly matched with Oregon.
- Somewhat bizarrely, when we play OSU the away team seems to do better. This is probably a function of low sample size.
- Stanford sucks, even when we spot them a couple of turnovers.
- The UCLA numbers are weird. I don't really know what to make of them.
The opinions expressed in a FanPost are, in every way, reflective of the opinions of every California Golden Blogs Marshawnthusiast. Moreover, they are reflective of every employee of SBNation, including Tyler "Blez" Bleszinski.
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Comments
4-3 against Arizona during this period is a maddening head scratcher. None of Zona’s teams has been particularly good during this stretch. I can sort of give us a pass on the 2002 loss, but we had no business losing the 2006 and 2008 games.
Praise be to Tedford!
Arizona was favored to win the 2008 game though
And considering our relative difference in record, I’d say they won that one pretty well.
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by Avinash Kunnath on Sep 2, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions
There’s no one who can convince me that 2008 Arizona was a better team than 2008 Cal. We shouldn’t have lost the game. Period.
Praise be to Tedford!
by Ohio Bear on Sep 2, 2009 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Rec'd!
Great post.
It’s kind of hard to make overarching statements due to the small sample size and the fact that correlation does not imply causation.
But it’s still interesting to see that Cal’s TO margin on the road is wildly different compared to the home margin (Oregon notwithstanding).
In other words, Go Bears!
I should have put this in the fanpost:
Cal’s net home turnover margin 2002-2008: 27
Cal’s net away turnover margin 2002-2008: -6
Overarching statements needed
I think 7 seasons is plenty big enough to draw some conclusions so I reject the small sample size argument. I did wonder why we only have 5 games against WSU and 6 agains ASU and Oregone during that time. Haven’t we been doing round robin play for that whole time?
PS. Correlation DOES actually imply causation. (It just doesn’t demonstrate causation directly)
I do not believe we started the round robin until 2005. Maybe 2006?
ALL HAIL SUPREME LEADER AVINASH!
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Round robin started in 2006
with the addition of the 12th game.
In prior years, some teams played 12+ regular season games, but only 8 conference opponents.
Um, correlation does not imply causation. Statistics 101…
by Missing Barry on Sep 4, 2009 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Stat 102
correlation implies causation, thats why we do those studies first before the more expensive, complicated experiments (if possible) to demonstrate actual causation. For some things, we even accept correlation as proof enough (i.e. smoking causes cancer in humans). But this is all semantics.
Your point was – the numbers don’t “prove” anything directly. On that we agree. I just think they are stronger evidence than you.
Oh I wasn’t weighing in on the numbers themselves (I wasn’t involved in this conversation earlier), just pointing out that all correlation means is two variables move in a correlated fashion. That does not imply any sort of causation on its own. If you have a sound theory for why you think they might be correlated, run a test on them, and find they are, you can start making some conclusions with some evidence (and follow up with further testing), but again, it doesn’t necessarily imply causation. Even with correlation, there are a number of possibilities that exist why there may not be causation, including reverse causation and extraneous variables.
To use a wikipedia example, you can look to see how the number of fireman at the scene affects a fire (you would think it would cause the fire to be smaller with more firemen to stop it), but you find there’s a positive correlation there. However, this is reverse causation as the size of the fire causes the number of firefighters at the scene. It’s a simple example and may not seem relevant, but this type of thing can happen pretty often in the real world depending on what field you’re in, and it’s often much harder to figure out which variable is the cause. (I get the impression you know all this and I’m lecturing unnecessarily, but oh well, maybe someone else out there can learn a thing or two)
Basically, correlation does not mean causation, and while it can imply causation, it does not have to and you need more information to draw any real conclusion.
by Missing Barry on Sep 4, 2009 9:06 AM PDT up reply actions
Also…
both variables we’re looking at could be influenced by a third, independent variable. That’s why I’m reluctant to make any claims about causality here.
dboneisloose
“Extraneous variables are variables other than the independent variable that may bear any effect on the behavior of the subject being studied.”
:)
by Missing Barry on Sep 4, 2009 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions
On 2008 USC PPG allowed...
If that defense hadn’t decided to take the 4th quarter off against Penn St., that figure would be around 7 ppg.
Also, I wonder how much lower it would sink if you discounted every point scored by the other team’s defense, by special teams, and by short fields (e.g. on the Trojans side of the half) as those aren’t really points allowed by the defense.
I bet it’d drop below a TD a game if you did that.
For that matter
I bet Cal’s defensive ppg would really improve based on that standard. I can think of three TDs in the first three games that were much more the fault of the offense than the defense.
Working from memory only
I can think of these points that can be deemed not the “fault” of the defense:
14 points vs. Michigan State (INT return for TD and TD set up by blocked punt deep in Cal territory)
7 points vs. Maryland (TD set up by INT return inside Cal’s 20)
7 points vs. Arizona (INT return for TD)
7 points vs. Fucla (blocked punt for TD)
21 points vs. OSU (KO return for TD; punt return to 1 yard line; INT return for TD)
Total = 56 points
Reduces the defensive ppg average to 15.6.
Praise be to Tedford!
The UCLA numbers are weird. I don’t really know what to make of them.
special teams have been huge in the UCLA games. We missed 3 FG in an overtime loss in 2003. Maurice Jones killed us on returns in 2005. Desean destroys UCLA on returns in 2006. None of that data would be reflected in what you’ve gathered here – in each of these games the winning team gained less yards than the loser!
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by norcalnick on Sep 2, 2009 8:42 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
The records against Oregon State and Arizona are head scratching, only because I can’t think of many years when either school was favored against Cal. Only this past year can I remember thinking “Oregon State should win this game.” Arizona hasn’t had a winning season (until this year) since 1998.
I haven’t looked through Cal’s schedule, but my guess is a couple of these loses happened during the same year. What would have happened with 1-2 more wins each year. Just something to think about that.
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