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Cal vs. the Pac-10 in the Tedford Era

I love football statistics (yes, I am a huge nerd). Having spent a fair amount of time looking at Cal's Tedford-era numbers, and having seen much wailing and gnashing of teeth regarding certain game situations (playing UCLA in LA, playing OSU at home, etc.), I thought it would be interesting to break down our performance at home and away against each of the other Pac-10 schools.

For obvious reasons, I'm using 2002-2008 data. Big shoutout to Royrules for sharing his data with me.

Team-by-Team Statistics 2002-2008

To give this some context, here are conference records, PPG/rushing/passing numbers for each Pac-10 team by year. The top 3 in each category are bolded (top 1 would just be a lot of USC).

Pac-10 Record

Arizona 19 40 32.20%
Arizona State 32 28 53.33%
California 36 23 61.02%
Oregon 36 24 60.00%
Oregon State 35 24 59.32%
Stanford 17 42 28.81%
UCLA 31 28 52.54%
USC 52 7 88.14%
Washington 14 45 23.73%
Washington State 25 34 42.37%

 

Offensive PPG

PPG (Offense) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Average
Arizona 18.92 15.1 14.9 22.9 16.6 28 36.6 21.86
Arizona State 32.29 24.8 29.8 36.8 26.8 32.3 22.8 29.37
California 35.58 32.6 36.8 32.9 32.8 29.3 32.6 33.23
Oregon 32.08 27.4 25.6 34.5 29.5 38.2 41.9 32.74
Oregon State 31.85 33.3 26.7 26.6 27.8 27.8 30.5 29.22
Stanford 20.45 16.9 22 24.5 10.6 19.6 26.3 20.05
UCLA 29.77 19.1 30.1 39.1 23 22.4 17.7 25.88
USC 35.77 41.1 38.2 49.1 30.5 32.6 37.5 37.82
Washington 30.62 26 14 21.5 21.8 29.2 13.3 22.35
Washington State 33.15 30.3 25 33.5 24.6 25.7 12.7 26.42

 

Points of Interest:

  • The 2005 Trojans were pretty ridiculous.
  • Cal's PPG is pretty consistent, more so than that of Oregon (although Oregon's PPG the last two years is scary good).

Opponent PPG

PPG (Defense) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Average
Arizona 25.83 35.75 25 26.4 19.6 26.8 21.3 25.81
Arizona State 29.07 27.33 24.5 29.9 25.1 22.5 22.7 25.87
California 26.5 24.36 16 21.2 19.3 26.8 19.9 22.01
Oregon 27.85 26.77 25.6 23.2 26.5 23.6 28.2 25.96
Oregon State 20.54 23.15 24.5 33.2 22.2 22.6 23.1 24.18
Stanford 34.27 29.45 21.2 30.6 31.4 28.3 27.4 28.95
UCLA 25.08 23.46 25.8 34.2 19.9 22.3 29 25.68
USC 18.46 18.38 13 22.8 15.2 16 9 16.12
Washington 26.31 26.33 30.4 30.6 25.9 31.6 38.6 29.96
Washington State 22.77 19.77 27.9 31.5 23.1 32.4 43.8 28.75

 

Points of Interest:

  • The 2004 Trojans were also ridiculous. The 2008 Trojans...um...yeah.
  • Cal's average opponent PPG during the Tedford era is quite a bit lower than anyone else's (apart from USC, of course). 2 points less than OSU may not look like much, but given how closely bunched together all the others are, I think it's at least somewhat significant. If you looked at 2004-2008 this would be even more true.

Passing YPG

Passing Offense 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Average
Arizona 289.75 183.67 170.5 229.3 168.7 308.5 244 227.77
Arizona State 303.86 274.25 317.3 373.4 197.6 262.6 220.3 278.47
California 247.58 264.64 235.7 192.7 253.2 241.8 189.8 232.20
Oregon 227.62 252.92 238.3 304.5 241 215.8 204.8 240.71
Oregon State 262.62 328.08 308.8 296.5 242.4 196.7 249 269.16
Stanford 178.18 187.18 247.3 223.9 166.8 211.3 152.2 195.27
UCLA 229.62 203 225.1 270.3 200.3 182.6 200.5 215.92
USC 306.77 291.62 271.7 319.8 263.8 237.7 259.8 278.74
Washington 346.23 269.67 190.8 222.8 193.8 191.2 163.8 225.47
Washington State 292.69 271.23 240.6 277.3 259.8 319.7 146 258.19

 

  • Cal seems to be in the middle of the pack here. There doesn't seem to be a particularly strong correlation between passing offense and overall success.

Opponent Passing YPG

Passing Defense 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Average
Arizona 224.33 279.25 255.5 225.1 206.6 234.2 181.9 229.55
Arizona State 244.29 253.92 236 289 210.3 227.8 208.7 238.57
California 278.83 251.14 238.4 240.4 240.8 214.4 193 236.71
Oregon 291.15 259.92 216.8 223.8 170.6 249.2 270.2 240.24
Oregon State 199.31 204.31 196 298.7 223.7 235.5 180.9 219.77
Stanford 252 296.27 248.9 285.9 177 265.5 226.7 250.32
UCLA 228.23 200.69 222.8 235.3 223.4 234.1 167.7 216.03
USC 201.77 276.23 199.9 230.4 204.8 189 134.4 205.21
Washington 259.46 233.42 185.8 275.7 240.2 261.4 211.2 238.17
Washington State 255.23 227.69 233.2 289.1 243.1 257.7 195.8 243.12

 

  • Cal clearly improving here.
  • 2008 seems particularly pass-unfriendly across the board.

Rushing YPG

Rushing Offense 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Average
Arizona 43.83 123.83 118.4 122 84.2 76.8 158.4 103.92
Arizona State 89 117.33 118.1 145.7 169.7 137.3 89.1 123.75
California 108 168.29 256.8 235.3 162.8 165.7 186.2 183.30
Oregon 145.62 131.92 158.7 134.3 181.8 251.7 280.1 183.45
Oregon State 148.69 134.92 70.7 122.5 118.2 174.9 158.1 132.57
Stanford 133.18 95.82 81.2 92.3 65.1 111.2 199.6 111.20
UCLA 127.54 91.92 184.9 160.7 129.8 151 82.8 132.67
USC 142.46 155.92 177.4 260 128 197.2 194.8 179.40
Washington 74.46 119.5 120.2 135.2 127.9 203.1 99.3 125.67
Washington State 129.23 115 128 212 128.3 115.9 95.1 131.93

 

  • Cal in 04-05 and Oregon in 07-08 put up way more yards than anyone else over this period.
  • Overall Cal, Oregon and USC are bunched very closely together - and almost 50 yards/game more than anyone else.

Opponent Rushing YPG

Rushing Defense 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Average
Arizona 161.83 180.75 123.91 183.73 119.67 138 131.08 148.42
Arizona State 119.36 150.83 122.92 179.75 117.62 117.31 126.33 133.45
California 114 133.71 82.5 119.17 125.38 164.46 122.23 123.06
Oregon 118.15 107.08 122.09 133.92 151.46 132.77 119.38 126.41
Oregon State 94.23 84.38 117.33 108 110.14 70.69 131.23 102.29
Stanford 132.73 137.55 143.36 156 210.5 169.92 152.92 157.57
UCLA 129.54 116.92 210.08 232.75 91.08 109.15 169.75 151.32
USC 83.15 60.15 79.38 130.54 91.08 84.15 87.38 87.98
Washington 97.69 151.58 183.64 143.36 139.17 185 240.58 163.00
Washington State 87.23 90.85 133.45 153.55 114.08 163.42 247.62 141.46

 

  • 2007 notwithstanding, Cal has clearly been consistently successful against the run.
  • Pretty impressive numbers from OSU, particularly in 2007.

Turnover Margin (by season)

 

Turnover Margin 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Arizona -7 -5 3 -9 7 0 6 -0.71
Arizona State 4 -4 5 7 -1 3 5 2.71
California 18 3 2 -6 6 -3 15 5.00
Oregon 5 -5 -2 13 -10 9 5 2.14
Oregon State 8 -8 3 -14 8 0 1 -0.29
Stanford -5 1 8 4 -11 2 -4 -0.71
UCLA 2 -1 -7 6 4 -4 -10 -1.43
USC 18 20 19 21 4 2 7 13.00
Washington 1 -4 -19 -3 -8 -1 -17 -7.29
Washington State -4 8 -1 -5 6 -2 -25 -3.29

 

  • Despite Joe and Nate's excellent adventure(s), Cal has done a great job keeping the turnover margin positive.

Cal's record against each Pac-10 opponent 2002-2008

Arizona (4-3)

# Pts Opp Pts Pass Yds Opp PYds Rush Yds Opp RYds Total Yds Opp Yds TO
Average 34.43 22.71 231.29 251.00 167.57 82.71 398.86 333.71 0.14
Home (3-1) 39.00 23.25 196.75 292.75 191.25 63.50 388.00 356.25 1.00
Away (1-2) 28.33 22.00 277.33 195.33 136.00 108.33 413.33 303.67 -1.00

 

Arizona State (5-1)

# Pts Opp Pts Pass Yds Opp PYds Rush Yds Opp RYds Total Yds Opp Yds TO
Average 37.67 21.17 238.00 254.83 156.00 112.17 394.00 367.00 2.33
Home (3-0) 33.33 11.67 211.00 193.33 150.67 144.33 361.67 337.67 3.33
Away (2-1) 42.00 30.67 265.00 316.33 161.33 80.00 426.33 396.33 1.33

 

Oregon (4-2)

# Pts Opp Pts Pass Yds Opp PYds Rush Yds Opp RYds Total Yds Opp Yds TO
Average 27.83 23.17 206.83 225.33 170.00 140.83 376.83 366.17 -0.17
Home (3-0) 33.00 22.33 226.67 196.67 195.33 139.00 422.00 335.67 -0.33
Away (1-2) 22.67 24.00 187.00 254.00 144.67 142.67 331.67 396.67 0.00

 

Oregon State (2-5)

# Pts Opp Pts Pass Yds Opp PYds Rush Yds Opp RYds Total Yds Opp Yds TO
Average 27.57 23.86 233.57 183.71 120.43 177.86 354.00 361.57 -0.71
Home (0-3) 23.00 29.67 195.33 202.00 148.00 201.00 343.33 403.00 -1.33
Away (2-2) 31.00 19.50 262.25 170.00 99.75 160.50 362.00 330.50 -0.25

 

Stanford (6-1)

# Pts Opp Pts Pass Yds Opp PYds Rush Yds Opp RYds Total Yds Opp Yds TO
Average 28.86 12.14 203.29 210.00 206.86 74.14 410.14 284.14 0.43
Home (4-0) 33.50 11.50 168.25 209.75 235.00 76.50 403.25 286.25 1.75
Away (2-1) 22.67 13.00 250.00 210.33 169.33 71.00 419.33 281.33 -1.33

 

UCLA (4-3)

# Pts Opp Pts Pass Yds Opp PYds Rush Yds Opp RYds Total Yds Opp Yds TO
Average 31.71 26.29 225.86 235.71 171.57 102.71 397.43 338.43 1.00
Home (4-0) 35.25 21.00 203.00 265.50 182.25 77.75 385.25 343.25 2.00
Away (0-3) 27.00 33.33 256.33 196.00 157.33 136.00 413.67 332.00 -0.33

 

USC (1-6)

# Pts Opp Pts Pass Yds Opp PYds Rush Yds Opp RYds Total Yds Opp Yds TO
Average 16.43 25.14 208.43 225.86 126.14 147.86 334.57 373.71 -1.57
Home (1-2) 19.33 27.67 219.00 217.33 170.00 175.33 389.00 392.67 -2.00
Away (0-4) 14.25 23.25 200.50 232.25 93.25 127.25 293.75 359.50 -1.25

 

Washington (6-1)

# Pts Opp Pts Pass Yds Opp PYds Rush Yds Opp RYds Total Yds Opp Yds TO
Average 41.14 18.71 243.57 253.57 267.00 118.29 510.57 371.86 1.86
Home (3-0) 44.33 12.67 252.33 213.00 335.67 100.00 588.00 313.00 4.00
Away (3-1) 38.75 23.25 237.00 284.00 215.50 132.00 452.50 416.00 0.25

 

Washington State (4-1)

# Pts Opp Pts Pass Yds Opp PYds Rush Yds Opp RYds Total Yds Opp Yds TO
Average 37.40 21.80 230.20 314.80 221.80 95.80 452.00 410.60 -0.20
Home (2-1) 33.33 34.33 287.00 400.67 180.33 111.33 467.33 512.00 -1.00
Away (2-0) 43.50 3.00 145.00 186.00 284.00 72.50 429.00 258.50 1.00

 

There are some interesting pieces of information in here. For example, despite our losing record against UCLA on the road, it seems that yardage-wise location doesn't have a huge impact on how we do. The turnover margin, on the other hand, is definitely better at home.

That illustrates a couple of issues to keep in mind when looking at these numbers:

1. Sample sizes are tiny

2. It's difficult to determine causality.

Having said that, I think there is some interesting data in here. A couple of things that jump out at me:

  • There seems to be little correlation between offensive PPG and Cal's conference record
  • The opposite is true for defensive PPG
  • Rushing offense/defense seems somewhat more closely correlated than passing
  • Our passing defense seems to be trending better; our rushing defense does not - but it's pretty good to begin with
  • Despite the 4-3 record against Arizona, we have done well against them on paper. Some of this might be skewed by the high scoring games in (if I recall correctly) 2002 and 2003.
  • While our yardage numbers are similar to those of ASU, the scoring and turnover numbers are not.
  • We're very evenly matched with Oregon.
  • Somewhat bizarrely, when we play OSU the away team seems to do better. This is probably a function of low sample size.
  • Stanford sucks, even when we spot them a couple of turnovers.
  • The UCLA numbers are weird. I don't really know what to make of them.

Be nice. You can find the original CGB team at WriteForCalifornia.com.

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