Varmit Cong: How Cal's Defense Should Stop Minnesota's Offense
by Avinash on Sep 17, 2009 3:00 AM PDT
in Football
39 comments
We'll look at Cal's offense versus Minnesota's defense tomorrow. (Big ups to danzig for cutting the Minnesota videos for the two part preview!)
Force Minnesota's quarterback Adam Weber into obvious passing down situations.
You know how we talked yesterday about opposing defenses wanted to force Riley into 3rd and long situations? I couldn't come up with a better way to describe what Cal's defense should do to Adam Weber.
Weber is an excellent precise, accurate passer...on the first two downs. He threw around 58% in the first two games this season on first and second down, but on 3rd down dipped to 48%. That isn't just an isolated occurrence. Last season he completed over 67% of his passes on 1st and 2nd down, but only went for around 48.7% on 3rd down. The Gophers have been an awful team on 3rd down these past few seasons, going from 36th in D-I schools in 2007 to 96th in the country in 2008, to around 87th in the country through the first two games. Not a promising sign for a team with its toughest games ahead.
Let's take a look at the gametape of Weber from the first two games this season. Based on the video below, what do you see?
One thing I see is Weber throws his passes a little too early. Whether he's rushing the throw, whether he feels the pressure is coming, or whether his throwing motion is a little off...all of those factors lead the receiver to being a step short on his route, and forcing him to lunge for the ball. See how many times in the clip above the receiver has to lay out to try and make a play on the ball on 3rd down, and contrast that to the other downs where the receiver catches the ball in stride.
What do you guys feel like Cal's defense should do to break down Minnesota's offense?
Danzig's thoughts on the video, plus more things Cal fans should look at are after the jump.
With those two things in mind, I see Gregory doing several things we didn't see in the first two games.
Cal should try their best to force Weber not only into 3rd down situations, but also to guard tightly against the 1st and 2nd down throws. Weber is deadly accurate here because either run or pass is a likely possibility, completing his passes at a 66% clip the past two seasons. So the Bears will have to be more aggressive in how they defend the pass theree; they can't play the straight zone they utilized versus Eastern Washington or Weber should pick them apart given the opportunity.
Also, expect a lot of three man rushes in passing situations and dropping our linebackers into coverage. It has never been Gregory's tendency to blitz on 3rd down, and I don't see that changing up Saturday. He might shade a linebacker into medium coverage for the screen passes that have SHREDDED Cal's defense in the first two games, but we'll probably see plenty of zone coverage, although it shouldn't be as soft as we saw on Thursday. If the Bears are going to get anywhere against some of the West Coast/pro-style offenses in the Pac-10, recognizing the screen and swing passes is crucial.
Want one more interesting stat on Weber? After completing about 60-65% passes in most of the field, in 2008 and 2009 he's completed only 42% of his passes in the red zone (although he has the majority of his TDs here). Look for Cal to defend against the run and dare Weber to test his accuracy in this area.
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Will Squid go one-on-one against Decker?
There's a third thing I didn't mention that Cal's secondary and linebackers could utilize to their advantage. The receiver in that video was always Eric Decker.
danzig sent these additional notes on the Weber-Decker relationship.
When Weber rolls to his right, he always throws to Decker who is coming back for the ball. 99% of the time. In these two games, this rule was broken only once.
When rolling to his left, he doesn't go to decker... but it is very rare that he rolls to his left. Seen this twice.
When Web is in duress, he will just throw it to decker... no matter what the coverage. Any rush or penetration... he will just throw it up for decker. They look just like Rudy [Carpenter]/[Chris] McGaha.
Decker caught about a third of Minnesota's passes last season, and he's caught about a half this season. That doesn't include all the times he's been thrown to. Now, we shouldn't take anything away from Decker, who has been one of the most productive receivers nationwide (2nd in receptions, 3rd in receiving YPG this year, 21st in receptions & 17th in receving YPG last year). But even Daily Gopher seemed worried about Weber's tendency to lock onto his main man.
Adam Weber is going to get Eric Decker killed in the Big Ten season. HE HAS GOT TO STOP THROWING TO HIM ALL THE TIME. Worst indication of this: Hayo Carpenter (another wide receiver) came in in the second quarter and BLOCKED FOR DECKER ON A SCREEN PLAY. Anyone else see something wrong with this? There is no way teams with solid secondaries, such as NU, UW, OSU, PSU and Iowa are going to let Decker beat them, so it's imperative to develop Stoudermire, Green and Carpenter more than we are.
Syd'Quan Thompson did not have his best week against the Eagles, so he could be looking for redemption against Decker. However, Thompson is giving up SIX INCHES to Decker (5'9" to 6'3"). That's a huge disadvantage for a corner. We could Weber try a lot of fade routes or elevated throws over the middle that could take advantage of this weakness.
So how well Cal's safeties play will be critical in defending against Decker's abilities. Expect either Ezeff or Johnson to be shading Decker a lot, especially if Weber is staring down his favorite target or moving on the go. They have to do their best to keep him from breaking into open field, and also to make sure they don't provide him too much of a buffer for him to catch passes in the flat.
Hopefully we'll see the secondary and the linebackers monitoring whether Weber is staring down Decker, or if he gets rushed or flushed out of the pocket, in turn leading to a likely throw to Decker. If they can do all of that, we might get a few more of those interceptions they've been missing from the first two weeks.
Attacking the strong right side.
You might be able to see above the dominant part of the Golden Gophers is the right side of their front, with Matt Carufel (Notre Dame transfer) and Jeff Willis combining for nearly 700 pounds. It's safe to say Cameron Jordan has his hands full this week, and we might see plenty of Trevor Guyton and Ernest Owusu alternating to that side to give Minnesota all the fresh bodies they can handle. On the touchdown run against Syracuse and the long run against Air Force, you see those behemoths open up the side through containment and leave the running back with the inside hole or the outside lane.
Thus, it'll be crucial for Tyson Alualu and Derrick Hill to get penetration on the more vulnerable left front. If Hill is able to push Minnesota's center Jeff Tow-Arnett around (Hill does have 14 pounds more on Tow-Arnett), that'd allow for linebackers like Kendricks and Holt to get inside and stuff the holes the right side opens up. Mike Mohamed (who has been playing a lot along on the right side) will play a big role in trying to seal the edge.
Wrinkle: The Wildcat. Minnesota has used the Wildcat this season, with a mixed bag of results (two first downs, one decent carry, one huge loss, and a fumble). Marquis Gray is usually lining up at quarterback in this formation. Unless he hands it off, he's either asked to run up the middle or off tackle depending on which way the blockers are moving. We might find out if the Bears have better lateral speed this season, since it looks like the Gophers like running to the corners.
Beware the second half adjustments.
If Cal jumps to an early lead, don't start planning for Eugene. Decker and the Daily Gopher both concur on this one.
I think offensively, coming out in the first half and getting more consistent drives put together. Obviously putting points on the board will help. You know, we finished well in both games; (we) had to come back from behind to win those games. That shows a lot of character about this team.
So how about the offense?:
Stat
1st Half
2nd Half
Total Yards
225
421
Points
17
19
Interceptions
1
0
Indeed, Minnesota has been a strong second half team this season; they seem to start slow before getting on track. If Cal is spotted an early lead, the Bears not only need to execute their defensive gameplan. They'll have to be ready to adapt to whatever the Gophers come up with coming out of the locker room.
And if they fall behind? Well, it's up to the offense. That's for tomorrow.
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Good analysis. It is really remarkable how many times he is just staring down Decker, especially on the short routes.
I would play a lot of press to take away the short outs and slants with a safety over the top. You also see about 5 clips were they throw a quick out to Decker if the CB is playing off. Hard to say if it’s an audible or just a read, but we might be able to bait them and then jump the route for a pick-6. I smell our first INT of the season!
GOLD OUT MOZAMBIQUE!
+1
It is really remarkable how many times he is just staring down Decker, especially on the short routes.
He really stares down Decker. If Web comes out of the play action looking left… he will throw left. If looking right, he will throw right.
If you take a look at Decker catching the ball, many times you will notice two, three or even four defenders around him, yet he’s still thrown the ball. This isn’t because he’s getting triple coverage….he’s getting bracketed, but it’s because Web stares him down and the DBs close in on Decker by the time he gets the ball.
The interesting thing is the whole Rudy/McGaha thing. Decker is the bailout guy. Whenever there is pressure on Web, he’ll roll out and Decker will come back to bail him out. He will throw the ball to Decker 99% of the time… even if it’s ill advised.
My prediction is we get our first INT in this game… and it will be Hagan.. not Syd. They’ll spread the ball out more, but Web will still not look off defenders.
by danzig on Sep 17, 2009 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
defendersbq. Blockquoted paragraph My prediction is we get our first INT in this game… and it will be Hagan.. not Syd. They’ll spread the ball out more, but Web will still not look off defendersbq. Blockquoted paragraph
Agreed, but, not necessarily by Hagan. The lack of check downs, if noticed by us ( how could we miss it?) is on every mind of our DB’s already….and, they are prolly licking their chops. Also, the absence of a blitz will be changed when our Bears are expecting a pass.
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The long route that Syd got burnt on vs EWU was a hitch and go where Syd jumped the hitch, then got burnt over the top. So I’d be worried that Minnesota saw that on tape and will try to make an adjustment, especially if they’ve established this pattern of Decker coming back to the ball.
Whew
However, Thompson is giving up SIX FEET to Decker (5’9" to 6’3").
Before I read the height measurements in parens, I was scared that Decker was 11 feet tall.
Praise be to Tedford!
What does Varmit Cong mean?
Is it like Viet Cong, in that Gophers hide in tunnels and then SURPRISE ATTACK!?
Internet Game Feed
Could someone post a likely internet site that will be feeding the Minnesota game? I have to open my store at 10am and only have access to the internet there. Thanks!
PRD has already confirmed he will be broadcasting this game
Perhaps on his main channel:
http://www.justin.tv/probono_2009
But that could change and usually does.. the final link will be posted in the threads on gameday.
Won’t this be on ESPN 360? It is on ESPN after all.
by wearecb4life on Sep 17, 2009 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, it will be.
"Delhomme, Panthers back in playoff form"
-- Headline of the Charlotte Observer after Jake Delhomme threw four interceptions on Sunday
by yellow fever on Sep 17, 2009 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes, but don’t you have to have a qualifying ISP to get it for free?
by CaliforniaCMB on Sep 18, 2009 2:25 AM PDT up reply actions
What is your store? Please say haberdashery + monoclist…
What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. What happens in California makes the world go round.
by Spazzy Mcgee on Sep 17, 2009 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Although Decker is a great WR, I don’t really see Cal switching to man defenses. Cal is primarily a zone defense team and will probably stay that way in this game too. Decker will probably find the seams in the zones and will have a decent amount of catches. But if Weber stares down Decker, Weber increases his chances of getting INTed against Cal’s zone defenders who will be watching Weber’s eyes.
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
I don’t know. What I saw was a ton of timing routes for Decker. Most of the time the ball is out before Decker makes his break… if that’s what the do, they they can dink and dunk us to death.
AF seemed first jam Decker at the line, then release him to bracketed coverage and it seemed to work pretty well for them. Web kept throwing to Decker while being covered by multiple guys.
I don’t think we switch to man either, btw.
Hydro, you might be right that Gregory will stick with the zone defense, but what I saw was a very quick and accurate passer on 1st and 2nd down, which could negate any zone we throw their way (it’d be like that Eastern Washington drive where they scored a touchdown). If I were the Bears I’d seriously think about playing receivers closer to the vest and keeping the safeties ready for double coverage.
Contact if you want to chat: bearsnecessities@gmail.com
Somebody want to explain to me what a “soft zone” is? (really more of a rhetorical question)
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A soft zone means that all the safeties and cornerbacks are playing back, five or ten yards off the line. The free safety will often play as much as 20 yards back. There will be no jamming of receivers on the line. The zone means that each defensive back is responsible for an area of the field, so they’re all watching the quarterback’s eyes instead of running stride for stride with a receiver. It is very easy for the offense to make short plays against this defense, gaining four to eight yards per play, but it’s almost impossible for the offense to make a big play of 20 or more yards against this sort of defense.
You could be right Hydro, they might just stay with the soft zone since it’s all about monitoring Weber.
Contact if you want to chat: bearsnecessities@gmail.com
Well, the point I was getting at is that I don’t think there really is a “soft” zone or a “hard” zone. Zones are zones. I doubt any defensive coordinator would say “we play ‘soft zones.’” What I think fans are getting at, but fail to verbalize, is depth of the zones. If the defenders are 20 yards off the LOS, that’s a “soft zone.” But merely being 10 yards off the LOS is not really a “soft zone.” Furthermore, Cal only plays “soft zones” on third and really long. However, Cal fans will say that Cal plays “soft zones” ALL THE TIME, even when Cal is not.
Basically, it comes down to this:
If the offense completes a pass against Cal’s zone defense then Cal is playing “soft zone” (regardless of whether they truly are or not.
If the offense doesn’t complete a pass against Cal’s zone defense then Cal is not playing “soft zone” (regardless of whether they truly are or not.
So in essence, my opinion may be a bit harsh and I’m certainly not trying to hurt feelings or be ass, but I don’t think a lot of people know what they’re talking about. The whole “soft zone” term is just another phrase, much like the “bend but don’t break” that lay fans use to define something they think they understand but don’t really understand.
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
And for clarification, I am of the opinion that we shouldn’t be using the term “soft zone,” because it implies there is something opposite of a “soft zone,” such as a “hard zone” or something. But there’s no such thing as soft or hard zones. It’s all about depth – how deep are the zones. Depth is a much more accurate word to describe what’s going on, rather than the word “soft” or “hard.”
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
So…deep zone vs. shallow zone? How would you describe playing 20 yds off the LOS to 10 yds off?
What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. What happens in California makes the world go round.
by Spazzy Mcgee on Sep 17, 2009 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions
I think “deep” and “shallow” are better descriptive words than “soft” or “non-soft” or “hard” or whatever else people might conjure up. When coaches talk about zone defenses, I’m pretty sure they’re talking about depth and location. I don’t think you’ll ever hear them saying to their players “hey, play a soft zone!” It’s either, “get deeper!” or “you’re too deep!” something like that. Linebackers need to hit the correct depth on their zones. On short downs, they can’t get more than 10 yards off the LOS – perhaps even less. On 3rd and 20s, they can get depth of 15 yards or so if they want.
But I don’t think a lot of fans even know when a zone is too deep or not. Cal can run two plays on defense. On the first play Cal allows an easy completion, and everyone is screaming “soft zones!” On the second play Cal can cause an incompletion, and nobody is screaming “soft zones!” But the Cal defense is playing the same defense on both plays. In other words, your typical fan automatically assumes that if there is a completion it’s because Cal is playing “soft zones.” And if there is no completion, then it’s because Cal is doing something else. But in reality Cal was doing the exact same thing.
Against EWU, I saw Cal running their zone defense with the same depth in similar situations. Some times they stopped EWU and in which case nobody was complaining about soft zones. But then as soon as EWU gets a completion, it’s because of soft zones.
It comes down to depth and defenders covering the receivers in their zone. In my opinion, “soft” is wayyy too ambiguous of a term to use.
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
by HydroTech on Sep 17, 2009 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
I agree, I think soft gives the idea that the D itself is more lenient. That isn’t the case; deep vs shallow would be better descriptors.
What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. What happens in California makes the world go round.
by Spazzy Mcgee on Sep 17, 2009 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions
a breast.
What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. What happens in California makes the world go round.
by Spazzy Mcgee on Sep 17, 2009 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions
More Caddyshack
I couldn’t help of think of the later scene in Caddyshack where Murray puts the plastic explosive in the shape of a bunny down the gopher hole and says “Hi, it’s just me Mr. Rabbit, not a plastic explosive or anything.” (Or something like that).
Which got me thinking about this football alternate:
“Hi, it’s just me Mr. Owusu, backup defensive lineman, not a sack threat or anything.”
That's about right.
Excellent work. That does cover quite a bit about how to beat us. However, there was an emerging trend last Saturday against Air Force. In both games we’ve started throwing more in the 2nd half, which is what the players are probably more comfortable with after 2 years of the Dunbar spread. But what was interesting was that while Weber was still throwing to Decker at about a 2-to-1 rate, he was also throwing completions his other receivers. Players like Green, Stoudermire, and the TE Tow-Arnett are the key to the Gophers moving the ball.
by WhiteSpeedReceiver on Sep 17, 2009 3:56 PM PDT reply actions
If Weber can spread the ball around instead of focusing on Decker, then Cal’s secondary is going to have to bring their A-game. They’ve played pretty well the first two weeks, but this team does seem to be good at making second half adjustments.
Contact if you want to chat: bearsnecessities@gmail.com
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