The following charts compare the success of Cal players relative to their ranking amongst the recruiting services. I cited both ESPN and Rivals’ evaluation of the 2006 and 2007 recruiting classes. The player’s status on current depth chart is based on the post-spring depth chart for 2009. As a point of reference, the 2006 class consists of either redshirt juniors or true seniors, while the 2007 class consists of either redshirt sophomores or true juniors.
A couple of notes:
1) I did not include JC transfer players.
2) The post-spring depth chart extends two deep at most positions, exceptions are at wide receiver, right guard, and fullback.
3) I assumed Kevin Riley will win the starting job, followed by Brock Mansion.
|
2006 |
ESPN |
RIVALS |
|||||
|
Name |
Proj. Pos. |
Position Rank |
Grade |
Stars |
RR |
Status on Current Depth Chart |
|
|
DB |
8 |
82 |
4 |
5.9 |
*Starting cornerback |
'=) |
|
|
Derrick Hill |
DT |
8 |
81 |
4 |
6 |
*Starting nose tackle |
'=) |
|
Kevin Rily |
QB |
14 |
80 |
4 |
5.8 |
*Starting quarterback |
'=) |
|
OL |
5 |
80 |
4 |
5.8 |
*Starting center |
'=) |
|
|
RB |
42 |
77 |
4 |
5.9 |
Transferred |
||
|
RB |
48 |
77 |
4 |
5.8 |
Transferred |
||
|
DT |
34 |
76 |
3 |
5.6 |
*Back-up right tackle |
||
|
RJ Garrett |
FB |
10 |
76 |
3 |
5.5 |
||
|
WR |
73 |
75 |
3 |
5.7 |
|||
|
Keith Browner Jr. |
DE |
62 |
74 |
3 |
5.6 |
||
|
Brandon Jones |
DB |
61 |
72 |
3 |
5.7 |
Transferred |
|
|
Mike Costanzo |
OL |
63 |
70 |
4 |
5.8 |
||
|
DT |
76 |
67 |
3 |
5.6 |
|||
|
WR |
175 |
61 |
3 |
5.5 |
*Back-up wide receiver |
||
|
- |
- |
40 |
3 |
5.7 |
Starting defensive end |
||
|
- |
- |
40 |
3 |
5.5 |
|||
|
Mike Mohamed |
- |
- |
40 |
2 |
5.2 |
*Starting LB |
|
|
* Indicates Redshirt |
|||||||
|
=) Started as Redshirt So. or earlier |
|||||||
|
Summary: |
|||||||
|
17 Recruits |
35% are Starters |
||||||
|
6 Starters |
12% are Back-ups |
||||||
|
8 Players on the 2-deep chart |
53% not on depth chart |
||||||
|
9 Players not on the 2-deep chart |
18% transferred |
||||||
|
3 Player transfers I'm aware of. |
|||||||
|
1 Position switch |
|||||||
|
2007 |
ESPN |
RIVALS |
|||||
|
Name |
Proj. Pos. |
Position Rank |
Grade |
Stars |
RR |
Status on Current Depth Chart |
|
|
RB |
22 |
79 |
4 |
5.9 |
Starting running back |
'=) |
|
|
Brock Mansion |
QB |
18 |
78 |
3 |
5.7 |
*Back-up quarterback |
|
|
OL |
25 |
78 |
4 |
5.9 |
*Back-up left guard |
||
|
DJ Campbell |
DB |
31 |
77 |
3 |
5.6 |
*Back-up safety |
|
|
K |
9 |
77 |
3 |
5.5 |
*Starting punter |
||
|
Sam Demartinis |
OL |
44 |
77 |
3 |
5.6 |
||
|
DJ Holt |
DE |
51 |
76 |
3 |
5.7 |
*Back-up linebacker |
|
|
WR |
93 |
74 |
3 |
5.6 |
*Starting slot receiver |
||
|
Robert Mullins |
LB |
41 |
74 |
3 |
5.7 |
||
|
OL |
105 |
72 |
3 |
5.7 |
*Starting right tackle |
'=) |
|
|
Savai'I Eselu |
TE |
78 |
69 |
3 |
5.7 |
||
|
DB |
97 |
69 |
3 |
5.6 |
*Back-up safety |
||
|
Scott Smith |
DE |
133 |
69 |
3 |
5.6 |
||
|
DB |
68 |
68 |
4 |
5.8 |
Back-up cornerback |
'=) |
|
|
Soloman Aigamana |
DE |
- |
40 |
2 |
5.4 |
||
|
Mike Calvin |
WR |
- |
40 |
3 |
5.6 |
*Third wide receiver |
|
|
OL |
- |
40 |
3 |
5.7 |
*Third right guard |
||
|
OL |
- |
40 |
3 |
5.7 |
|||
|
DE |
- |
40 |
3 |
5.7 |
*Back-up defensive end |
||
|
LB |
- |
40 |
3 |
5.5 |
*Back-up fullback |
||
|
RB |
- |
40 |
4 |
5.9 |
*Back-up running back |
||
|
DE |
- |
40 |
3 |
5.6 |
Starting defensive end |
||
|
* Indicates Redshirt |
|||||||
|
=) Started as Redshirt So. or earlier |
|||||||
|
Summary: |
|||||||
|
22 Recruits |
23% are Starters |
||||||
|
5 Starters |
50% are Back-ups |
||||||
|
16 Players on the 2-deep chart |
27% not on depth chart |
||||||
|
6 Players not on the 2-deep chart |
0% transferred |
||||||
|
2 Position switch |
|||||||
|
2006 |
|||||||
|
Ranking |
Total |
Starter |
Back-up |
Not on Depth Chart |
|||
|
4 Stars |
7 |
4 |
57% |
0 |
0% |
43% |
|
|
3 Stars |
9 |
1 |
11% |
2 |
22% |
67% |
|
|
2 Stars |
1 |
1 |
100% |
0 |
0% |
0% |
|
|
80+ |
4 |
4 |
100% |
0 |
0 |
0% |
|
|
78-79 |
0 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
75-77 |
5 |
0 |
0% |
1 |
20% |
80% |
|
|
70-74 |
3 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0% |
100% |
|
|
65-69 |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0% |
100% |
|
|
60-64 |
1 |
0 |
0% |
1 |
100% |
0% |
|
|
40 (unranked) |
3 |
2 |
67% |
0 |
0% |
33% |
|
|
2007 |
|||||||
|
Ranking |
Total |
Starter |
Back-up |
Not on Depth Chart |
|||
|
4 Stars |
4 |
1 |
25% |
3 |
75% |
0% |
|
|
3 Stars |
17 |
4 |
24% |
8 |
47% |
29% |
|
|
2 Stars |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0% |
100% |
|
|
80+ |
0 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
78-79 |
3 |
1 |
33% |
2 |
67% |
0% |
|
|
75-77 |
4 |
1 |
25% |
2 |
50% |
25% |
|
|
70-74 |
3 |
2 |
67% |
0 |
0% |
33% |
|
|
65-69 |
4 |
0 |
0% |
2 |
50% |
50% |
|
|
60-64 |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0% |
0% |
|
|
40 (unranked) |
8 |
1 |
13% |
5 |
63% |
25% |
|
|
COMBINED |
|||||||
|
Ranking |
Total |
Starter |
Back-up |
Not on Depth Chart |
|||
|
4 Stars |
11 |
5 |
45% |
3 |
27% |
27% |
|
|
3 Stars |
26 |
5 |
19% |
10 |
38% |
43% |
|
|
2 Stars |
2 |
1 |
50% |
0 |
0% |
50% |
|
|
80+ |
4 |
4 |
100% |
0 |
0% |
0% |
|
|
78-79 |
3 |
1 |
33% |
2 |
67% |
0% |
|
|
75-77 |
9 |
1 |
11% |
3 |
33% |
56% |
|
|
70-74 |
6 |
2 |
33% |
0 |
0% |
66% |
|
|
65-69 |
5 |
0 |
0% |
3 |
60% |
40% |
|
|
60-64 |
1 |
0 |
0% |
1 |
100% |
0% |
|
|
40 (unranked) |
11 |
3 |
27% |
5 |
45% |
27% |
|
I wanted to just post the data and then let the reader derive their own conclusions, however there are a few points I'd like to accentuate:
1) It is okay to get excited about the big name recruits. All players rated at 79 or better started by their Redshirt Sophomore season. Meanwhile the percentage of 4-Star recruits not on the current depth chart is dramatically lower, and strongly influenced by James Montgomery and Tracey Slocum's decision to transfer.
2) Beware of the mid-range prospect. Prospects rated in the 70-77 range by ESPN have the lowest success rate of becoming either a starter or a primary back-up.
3) Don't fear the unknown. 12 of the 17 prospects rated 69 to unranked are poised to be major contributors this year. These players include the likes of Mike Mohamad, Cameron Jordan, Tyson Alualu, and Shane Vereen.
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