FanPost

Recruit Rankings vrs. Current Depth Chart

 

The following charts compare the success of Cal players relative to their ranking amongst the recruiting services.  I cited both ESPN and Rivals’ evaluation of the 2006 and 2007 recruiting classes.  The player’s status on current depth chart is based on the post-spring depth chart for 2009.  As a point of reference, the 2006 class consists of either redshirt juniors or true seniors, while the 2007 class consists of either redshirt sophomores or true juniors.

A couple of notes:

1)       I did not include JC transfer players.

2)      The post-spring depth chart extends two deep at most positions, exceptions are at wide receiver, right guard, and fullback.

3)      I assumed Kevin Riley will win the starting job, followed by Brock Mansion.

2006

ESPN

RIVALS

Name

Proj. Pos.

Position Rank

Grade

Stars

RR

Status on Current Depth Chart

Darian Hagan

DB

8

82

4

5.9

*Starting cornerback

'=)

Derrick Hill

DT

8

81

4

6

*Starting nose tackle

'=)

Kevin Rily

QB

14

80

4

5.8

*Starting quarterback

'=)

Chris Guarnero

OL

5

80

4

5.8

*Starting center

'=)

James Montgomery

RB

42

77

4

5.9

Transferred

Tracy Slocum

RB

48

77

4

5.8

Transferred

Justin Prueitt

DT

34

76

3

5.6

*Back-up right tackle

RJ Garrett

FB

10

76

3

5.5

Daniel Lofton

WR

73

75

3

5.7

Keith Browner Jr.

DE

62

74

3

5.6

Brandon Jones

DB

61

72

3

5.7

Transferred

Mike Costanzo

OL

63

70

4

5.8

Isaac Leatiota

DT

76

67

3

5.6

Jeremy Ross

WR

175

61

3

5.5

*Back-up wide receiver

Tyson Alualu

-

-

40

3

5.7

Starting defensive end

Charles Amadi

-

-

40

3

5.5

Mike Mohamed

-

-

40

2

5.2

*Starting LB

* Indicates Redshirt

=)  Started as Redshirt So. or earlier

Summary:

17 Recruits

35% are Starters

6 Starters

12% are Back-ups

8 Players on the 2-deep chart

53% not on depth chart

9 Players not on the 2-deep chart

18% transferred

3 Player transfers I'm aware of.

1 Position switch

2007

ESPN

RIVALS

Name

Proj. Pos.

Position Rank

Grade

Stars

RR

Status on Current Depth Chart

Jahvid Best

RB

22

79

4

5.9

Starting running back

'=)

Brock Mansion

QB

18

78

3

5.7

*Back-up quarterback

Matt Summers-Gavin

OL

25

78

4

5.9

*Back-up left guard

DJ Campbell

DB

31

77

3

5.6

*Back-up safety

Bryan Anger

K

9

77

3

5.5

*Starting punter

Sam Demartinis

OL

44

77

3

5.6

DJ Holt

DE

51

76

3

5.7

*Back-up linebacker

Alex Lagemann

WR

93

74

3

5.6

*Starting slot receiver

Robert Mullins

LB

41

74

3

5.7

Mitchell Schwartz

OL

105

72

3

5.7

*Starting right tackle

'=)

Savai'I Eselu

TE

78

69

3

5.7

Sean Cattouse

DB

97

69

3

5.6

*Back-up safety

Scott Smith

DE

133

69

3

5.6

Chris Conte

DB

68

68

4

5.8

Back-up cornerback

'=)

Soloman Aigamana

DE

-

40

2

5.4

Mike Calvin

WR

-

40

3

5.6

*Third wide receiver

Justin Cheadle

OL

-

40

3

5.7

*Third right guard

Todd Huber

OL

-

40

3

5.7

Ernest Owusu

DE

-

40

3

5.7

*Back-up defensive end

John Tyndall

LB

-

40

3

5.5

*Back-up fullback

Shane Vereen

RB

-

40

4

5.9

*Back-up running back

Cameron Jordan

DE

-

40

3

5.6

Starting defensive end

* Indicates Redshirt

=)  Started as Redshirt So. or earlier

Summary:

22 Recruits

23% are Starters

5 Starters

50% are Back-ups

16 Players on the 2-deep chart

27% not on depth chart

6 Players not on the 2-deep chart

0% transferred

2 Position switch

2006

Ranking

Total

Starter

Back-up

Not on Depth Chart

4 Stars

7

4

57%

0

0%

43%

3 Stars

9

1

11%

2

22%

67%

2 Stars

1

1

100%

0

0%

0%

80+

4

4

100%

0

0

0%

78-79

0

-

-

-

-

-

75-77

5

0

0%

1

20%

80%

70-74

3

0

0%

0

0%

100%

65-69

1

0

0%

0

0%

100%

60-64

1

0

0%

1

100%

0%

40 (unranked)

3

2

67%

0

0%

33%

2007

Ranking

Total

Starter

Back-up

Not on Depth Chart

4 Stars

4

1

25%

3

75%

0%

3 Stars

17

4

24%

8

47%

29%

2 Stars

1

0

0%

0

0%

100%

80+

0

-

-

-

-

-

78-79

3

1

33%

2

67%

0%

75-77

4

1

25%

2

50%

25%

70-74

3

2

67%

0

0%

33%

65-69

4

0

0%

2

50%

50%

60-64

0

0

0%

0

0%

0%

40 (unranked)

8

1

13%

5

63%

25%

COMBINED

Ranking

Total

Starter

Back-up

Not on Depth Chart

4 Stars

11

5

45%

3

27%

27%

3 Stars

26

5

19%

10

38%

43%

2 Stars

2

1

50%

0

0%

50%

80+

4

4

100%

0

0%

0%

78-79

3

1

33%

2

67%

0%

75-77

9

1

11%

3

33%

56%

70-74

6

2

33%

0

0%

66%

65-69

5

0

0%

3

60%

40%

60-64

1

0

0%

1

100%

0%

40 (unranked)

11

3

27%

5

45%

27%

I wanted to just post the data and then let the reader derive their own conclusions, however there are a few points I'd like to accentuate:

1)  It is okay to get excited about the big name recruits.  All players rated at 79 or better started by their Redshirt Sophomore season.  Meanwhile the percentage of 4-Star recruits not on the current depth chart is dramatically lower, and strongly influenced by James Montgomery and Tracey Slocum's decision to transfer.

2)  Beware of the mid-range prospect.  Prospects rated in the 70-77 range by ESPN have the lowest success rate of becoming either a starter or a primary back-up.

3)  Don't fear the unknown.  12 of the 17 prospects rated 69 to unranked are poised to be major contributors this year.  These players include the likes of Mike Mohamad, Cameron Jordan, Tyson Alualu, and Shane Vereen. 

The opinions expressed in a FanPost are, in every way, reflective of the opinions of every California Golden Blogs Marshawnthusiast. Moreover, they are reflective of every employee of SBNation, including Tyler "Blez" Bleszinski.

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