Grading The '09-'10 Cal Basketball Schedule
by ragnarok on Jul 13, 2009 5:00 AM PDT
in Basketball
32 comments
Last week, Cal released their 2009-10 men's basketball schedule. My initial reaction? I'm actually quite excited. While still flawed, especially the lackluster non-conference home schedule, the overall level of both the competition and the opportunities for exposure is a big step up from previous schedules. Last year, I gave the non-conference schedule a disappointing 'C+' grade; this year's slate is a significant upgrade.
Before we get to the grading, I'll recap my own personal scheduling preferences, which inform my grading rubric:
As a fan, I have certain scheduling preferences, which may or may not agree with the philosophy of the coach actually doing the scheduling. I of course like home games, but I like them against interesting opponents. Nationally-recognized opponents are of course great, but local mid-majors are also fun to have on the schedule. Tournaments are great, especially when they lead to some nationally-televised games on ESPN. I like to see a challenging (though not brutal) non-conference slate, something that will prepare our team for the rigors of the Pac-10. I don't like playing terrible teams just to get a guaranteed win, and I'm not interested in seeing Cal beat up on a team I've never heard of. A quick rule of thumb: if I don't know what state a team is from, I'm probably not interested in seeing Cal play them.
Now, on with the judging!
*all Ratings listed here come from Ken Pomeroy .
Nov. 9 - Murray State Racers (19-12 last year, 13-5 in the Ohio Valley Conference (2nd); PomRating last year : 137; Avg. PomRating last 4 years : 160)
Nov. 11 - Detroit Titans (7-23 last year, 2-16 in the Horizon League (10th); PomRating last year : 279; Avg. PomRating last 4 years : 213)
The Cal Bears open their season at home with a couple games that open the Coaches v. Cancer Classic. These games, however, are hardly likely to be classic. The Bears open against a school that you very well may never have heard of. The first red flag that went off for me? "Murray" is not a State (unlike Kentucky, where the school is actually located). Then, two days later, they take on Detroit, whose team is about as bad as the rest of the news coming out of Detroit lately. We're entering Chump City, folks.
Actually, the Murray State Racers' record last year was actually pretty decent (and they lost @ Missouri by just 11, a far better showing that the Bears put up), so it might be a mistake to overlook these guys, almost all of whom are coming back this year. If Cal is truly ready to contend for the Pac-10 title, Murray State shouldn't present an overwhelming challenge, but if the Bears aren't careful...well, it'd be a disastrous way to start the season. Other than the fact that I've never really heard of these guys, this seems like a good mid-level opponent to start off the season, and since this game comes as part of the Coaches v. Cancer package, I'm even more in support of it.
The Detroit game? Not so much. The Titans are almost certain to be anywhere from bad to awful next season, and I'm anticipating a lot of playing time for the Bears' bench in the second half. But rather than bore you with talk about this team, I'll use this space to rant about how shady it is that this tournament includes a number of teams that have absolutely no chance to win this event -- not only that, but they're not even mentioned anywhere on the event's website! From the official site:
New Format
- The 2009 tournament will include a 12-team field with games at four regional sites (Syracuse, North Carolina, Ohio State and Cal) between November 9-13. Championship Round games will be played on November 19 & 20.- The four regional hosts will play two games at home and then automatically advance to the Championship Rounds in New York City, regardless of the regional results.
- All other participants will automatically advance to play a round-robin series at one of two other sub-regional sites. Thus, every participating team will be guaranteed four games.
- Thus, every participating team will be guaranteed four games, regardless of the regional results.
Lame!! Anyway, to get the good games with the exposure in New York City, you gotta accept a couple of chumps beforehand. Oh well, I guess I can live with it. My grade might be higher if Detroit didn't suck so much, but they do, so... Grade: B+
Nov. 19-20 - Coaches vs. Cancer Classic - North Carolina Tar Heels (34-4 last year, 13-3 in the Atlantic Coast Conference (1st); PomRating last year : 1; Avg. PomRating last 4 years : 3) -- or -- Syracuse Orange (28-10 last year, 11-7 in the Big East Conference (6th); PomRating last year : 15; Avg. PomRating last 4 years : 35) -- or -- Ohio State Buckeyes (22-11 last year, 10-8 in the Big Ten Conference (4th); PomRating last year : 37; Avg. PomRating last 4 years : 22)
I absolutely love these games; there's basically no downside. Big-time exposure in New York and on TV, quality, big-name opposition...even if the Bears don't win a game, as long as they don't embarrass themselves in front of a national audience, nobody will hold it against them.
And on the upside? If the Bears can win this tournament, they could solidify a Top 10 ranking and mark the coming-out party of a national basketball power. It won't be easy -- North Carolina may not repeat as national champions, but they're hardly going to fade into obscurity, and both Syracuse and Ohio State will be tough matchups as well. Regardless of the outcome, this tournament is exactly the kind of thing that past Golden Bear schedules have lacked, and exactly the kind of non-conference preparation that a team picked to contend for the Pac-10 title will need. Grade: A+
Nov. 24 - Jacksonville Dolphins (18-14 last year, 15-5 in the Atlantic Sun Conference (1st); PomRating last year : 127; Avg. PomRating last 4 years : 233)
Competition-wise, Jacksonville is a decent opponent (other than their leading rebounder, they return basically everyone from a team that won the Atlantic Sun last year), but in terms of fan interest, it could really hardly be lower. I wouldn't necessarily say I'm the most knowledgable college basketball fan out there, but if I've never heard of Jacksonville University, I'd be willing to bet most other Cal fans haven't either. Just as the Coaches vs. Cancer games in New York offer the Bears nothing to lose, a game like this offers them virtually nothing to gain. A win, and nobody is surprised (or even notices, really), whereas a loss looks poorly on their record. Assuming the Bears win without too much trouble, this game offers a chance to get a bunch of players some work, but don't expect too many fans to show up. Grade: C+
Nov. 29 - Princeton Tigers (13-14 last year, 8-6 in the Ivy League (2nd); PomRating last year : 260; Avg. PomRating last 4 years : 270)
I can't help but think that Cal's frustrating inability to defeat the less-talented Oregon State Beavers and their Princeton offense last season led Coach Mike Montgomery to schedule a practice game against the original article, the Princeton Tigers. Princeton hasn't been very good these last few years, but perhaps returning nearly everyone from last year's team will allow them to master a complicated offense. This game should draw at least some mild fan interest, though I don't know if the level of competition will match it. However, if the practice helps the Bears to finally beat the Beavers, it will have been more than worth it. Grade: B-
Dec. 2 - at New Mexico Lobos (22-12 last year, 12-4 in the Mountain West Conference (1st); PomRating last year : 39; Avg. PomRating last 4 years : 79)
Playing at "The Pit" is never an easy proposition, even moreso when the defending Mountain West champs are playing well. While New Mexico does lose a number of important seniors, and so will be rather young next year, this still won't be an easy road game. I like this game, as it not only should be a good test for our Bears, but it gets Cal a return home game for the 2010-11 season. Grade: A-
Dec. 5 - Iowa State Cyclones (15-17 last year, 4-12 in the Big Twelve Conference (10th); PomRating last year : 112; Avg. PomRating last 4 years : 102)
I'm a big fan of the Big XII / Pac-10 Hardwood Challenge, as it gets schools from both conferences home-and-home series with tough BCS conference schools. However, whoever scheduled this series has done a disservice to both Cal and Iowa State, creating the biggest mismatch of the series. Cal, widely picked to finish either first or second in the Pac-10, gets and Iowa State squad that won just 4 conference games last year, and will struggle to crack the top half of the conference. Overall, I like the series, but am disappointed in this particular opponent. What's more disappointing? This is probably the best home game the Bears will get this year before the conference season begins. Grade: B
Dec. 9 - at Pacific Tigers (21-13 last year, 10-6 in the Big West Conference (2nd); PomRating last year : 113; Avg. PomRating last 4 years : 135)
Last year, Pacific gave the Bears a bit of a test before losing by 12 to open the season. This year, the Bears return the game to Stockton, though they'll face a Tigers squad that has lost a number of important seniors, including players who scored 34 of the 56 points Pacific scored in losing at Haas last year. Not a great game, by any means, though it should be another decent road test for the Bears in front of what I can only assume will be a pretty amped-up crowd in Stockton, one that ought to contain at least a fair number of Cal fans. If the Bears are going to play mid-majors, I'd much prefer they be local ones that garner at least some interest within the Bay Area. Grade: B
Dec. 22 - at Kansas Jayhawks (27-8 last year, 14-2 in the Big Twelve Conference (1st); PomRating last year : 10; Avg. PomRating last 4 years : 5)
Fresh off of final exams, the Bears will travel to Lawrence, Kansas to face a much bigger test: a road game against the consensus preseason favorite to win it all next year. I expect some good TV expsoure for this game, and win or lose, the experience should pay dividends down the road. As a added bonus, the Bears get a return visit to Haas from Kansas in 2010. Grade: A+
Dec. 28-29 - Golden Bear Classic - Furman Paladins (6-24 last year, 4-12 in the Southern Conference (11th); PomRating last year : 325; Avg. PomRating last 4 years : 263) -- and -- UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (16-15 last year, 8-8 in the Big West Conference (4th); PomRating last year : 169; Avg. PomRating last 4 years : 158) -- or -- Utah Valley Wolverines (17-11 last year; PomRating last year : 159)
Finally, the Bears wrap up the non-conference season with the annual Golden Bear Classic, and just like the last however many years, I once again struggle to care. UC Santa Barbara is at least somewhat local and not completely awful (though they did lose their best player to graduation), but Utah Valley is both miscelaneous and new to Division I, and until TwistNHook told me, I didn't even know what state Furman was in! (South Carolina, in case you were interested.) Furman (whom I'm assuming will be Cal's opening round opponent) is also one of those teams that is so bad (one of the 20 worst teams in Division I last year) that just by playing them, the Bears will do harm to their RPI.
I've railed about the uselessness of this tournament before, but it obviously hasn't improved anything. At best, this tournament gives these kids a chance to play two games in two days; at worst, they'll lose a game, drawing embarassment and damage to their NCAA tournament résumé. Coming after the Kansas game, these games will be both a letdown in competition and a poor tune-up for Pac-10 competition. Meh. Grade: C-
Overall, it's a big improvement over last season's schedule, but there's still some weak spots. Specifically, the home non-conference slate is pretty much devoid of interesting games (Iowa State and Princeton are the headliners, and neither game is inducing this fence-sitter to finally pony-up for season tickets), and the Golden Bear Classic once again fails to be worth of the name "Classic". But the road/neutral schedule offers plenty of challenges, and I expect this team to be battle-tested (with a decent RPI to boot) come the beginning of Pac-10 play, hosting Stanford on January 2, 2010. Though the non-conference schedule was close to earning a B+, I'm giving it a final mark (go ahead, add up the GPA!) of a solid Grade: B
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It is ambitious enough for us to gain some national recognition if we advance in the cancer tourney or beat Kansas, yet soft enough for us to get 20+ wins by the end of the season (and you know plenty of journalists who don’t pay attention to anyone in the Pac-10 besides UCLA use that as a metric for determining if a team is good enough to make the NCAA tourney). Great improvement over last year.
Whose domicile? OUR DOMICILE!
by Berkelium97 on Jul 13, 2009 8:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Kansas is going to murder us.
All aboard the Jahvid Best rickshaw!
by rollonubears on Jul 13, 2009 9:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think you are too generous. The lowest grade is a C-! Are you worried that you’re going to hurt someone’s feelings?! How will you ever set the curve!
But aside from that, I agree with everything you’ve said, which frankly makes a very boring conversation. It’s almost like we’re the same person….
Honk if you think Rags is great!
by AndBears on Jul 13, 2009 10:55 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The Scandanavian Sensation Part II!
Joe Starkey...Scholar, Humanitarian, Cal legend, worst radio play by play man of all time.
by Fire Starkey on Jul 13, 2009 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Rags is a bit high off the schedule this year. It isn’t that much better. Maybe the excitement coming into this year made him more excited about the schedule, because it represents the start of the season.
All aboard the Jahvid Best rickshaw!
by rollonubears on Jul 13, 2009 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I honestly tried to keep my grading scale consistent with last year’s grading, in which I did hand out both Ds and Fs. Although much of this year’s schedule is fairly comparable to last year’s, it does have a couple of significant upgrades, and no significant downgrades.
First, the Kansas game is a significant step up — there were some decent non-conference matchups, but only the Missouri game got on TV, and only because it was part of the Big XII / Pac-10 Hardwood Challenge, and even then not in the Bay Area (I had to watch it streaming online).
Coaches vs. Cancer is a huge step up over the tournament the Bears played in last year, which didn’t have a name at the time I wrote my schedule review (and I’ve since forgotten it, other than the fact that it was terrible). Not only is the competition better, but last year’s tournament didn’t get on TV. Anywhere. No exposure, national or otherwise.
Finally, there’s no game on this year’s schedule as bad as the Colgate game last year (which I gave an ‘F’ to). Jacksonville is the closest thing, but gets better marks because a), Jacksonville might actually provided some modicum of competition, and b) the game comes earlier in the year, when tune-ups against lesser competition are more important. I still don’t care about the game, but I can at least understand why it was scheduled.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
by ragnarok on Jul 13, 2009 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Golden Bear Classic should get an F.
All aboard the Jahvid Best rickshaw!
by rollonubears on Jul 13, 2009 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark
by carp on Jul 13, 2009 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps I go easy on the GBC because I realize how difficult it is to get quality clubs to come and play in some fourth-rate tournament that won’t even be on TV, and don’t hold those games to as high of a standard as I should. You may be right, a ‘D’ or an ‘F’ might be warranted.
It’s still no worse than the last dozen or so Golden Bear Classics.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
by ragnarok on Jul 13, 2009 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well there is a culture of suckitude with the GBC. Cal is actually good this year. We could definitely have gotten some decent teams to come out, and in turn gotten TV coverage.
All aboard the Jahvid Best rickshaw!
by rollonubears on Jul 13, 2009 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
did this used to be the Pete Newell challenge? Is Cal playing in that this year?
"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark
by carp on Jul 13, 2009 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, the Pete Newell Challenge was a doubleheader that usually featured both Cal and Stanford facing high-profile opponents, usually at the Oakland Arena. It’s history included good opponents, good TV coverage, and some classic games. I was sad to see it go, as it almost always provided a good non-conference opponent for the Bears.
As for why it folded? I have no idea. I know that it hasn’t occurred for several years, so it didn’t have anything to do with Mr. Newell’s passing, but beyond that, I couldn’t say.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
by ragnarok on Jul 13, 2009 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that’s right. I think Cal beat (or almost beat) N. Carolina in that several years ago. Is that right?
"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark
by carp on Jul 13, 2009 6:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cal beat UNC in the Newell Challenge in 1998.
Praise be to Tedford!
by Ohio Bear on Jul 13, 2009 7:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've heard of Jacksonville University
The one that throws me is Jacksonville State in Alabama. Why can’t they put it in Jacksonville Florida with JU? Much less confusing that way.
Joe Starkey...Scholar, Humanitarian, Cal legend, worst radio play by play man of all time.
by Fire Starkey on Jul 13, 2009 11:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
IIRC, Jacksonville U. is the alma mater of Artis Gilmore.
Praise be to Tedford!
by Ohio Bear on Jul 13, 2009 7:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
* Cal will advance to NY in the Coaches vs. Cancer regardless of the outcome of the Murray State and Detroit games, which means the Bears get two guaranteed dates vs. UNC/Ohio State/Syracuse.
They’d be best off facing Carolina and Ohio State, which should be top-10/15 teams. Syracuse probably won’t be at that level after losing point guard Jonny Flynn to the NBA.
* Kansas could very well be No. 1 and undefeated when Cal visits Lawrence before Xmas.
(If memory serves, Mike Montgomery beat the Jayhawks the last time he faced them: In the Dec. ‘03 Wooden Classic in Anaheim.)
The Jayhawks will visit Berkeley in the 2010-11 season in the return game.
* So right there, that’s at least two and possibly three games against top-tier foes, depending on the C vs. C situation: KU and either OSU or UNC, and maybe KU and OSU and UNC.
The selection committee loves that.
* But the strength of the schedule also depends on Iowa State and New Mexico.
If the Cyclones and Lobos are average, then the schedule’s no worse than solid. But if the Cyclones and Lobos are good, the schedule becomes first rate — loaded with quality depth.
The guess here is that ISU, which returns its top-three scorers from a team that went 15-17 — including first-team all-Big 12 forward Craig Brackins — is good.
* Between Brackins, Kansas’ Cole Aldrich and possibly UNC’s Ed Davis and John Henson, the Bears will face two (or four) of the very best big men in the country.
They’re all ‘10 first rounders, much better than any big men in the Pac-10.
* Lastly, while I haven’t included the Pac-10 schedule here, there are two items worth noting:
1) Cal opens league play Jan. 2 vs. Stanford and finishes the regular season March 6 at Stanford.
2) Cal and Stanford have drawn the dreaded back-to-back road weekends this season (it happens to each set of travel partners every few years).
The Bears and Cardinal will visit Arizona in late January and turn around and head to Los Angeles in early February.
"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark
by carp on Jul 13, 2009 1:16 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
We may get to face Mark Titus!
All aboard the Jahvid Best rickshaw!
by rollonubears on Jul 13, 2009 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Although this post is about non-conference schedule, I am still a bit depressed over the fact that 3 of the best Pac10 teams visit Berkeley before most people return from winter vacation.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah TwistNHook!
www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com
by TwistNHook on Jul 13, 2009 1:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Only six home games during the spring semester, none against California schools. Four straight games on the road totally blows.
by Avinash on Jul 13, 2009 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed, though since the conference schedule is totally out of Cal’s hands, I decided not to whine about it too much.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
by ragnarok on Jul 13, 2009 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
pics or they’re Pagans and won’t go home for the holidays.
"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark
by carp on Jul 13, 2009 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a schedule addressed very much to the NCAA selection committee
and not to the polls. All the big games are road/neutral, which is very unusual for a major-conference team.
But the thing is, the committee doesn’t really care if you can pull off a shock win at home if it’s obviously a fluke. The upside of road/neutral games is a lot higher and the downside is a lot lower. If you lose… well, is that really so bad? There are enough patsies in there that even an absolute worst-case scenario is something like 8-5, which is still enough wins to secure a tournament bid if the team makes a decent amount of hay in the non-conference schedule.
This isn’t football, where the correct strategy is to schedule as many home cupcakes as you can put on your schedule with a straight face. Road-neutral wins are where it’s at. I give the schedule an A.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 13, 2009 4:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
hay in the conference schedule*
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 14, 2009 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
holidays
from a student’s perspective – what really disappointed me is that both the stanfurd and UCLA home games are during the winter holidays. Those two games were the most fun by far and they’re not going to be nearly as exciting (or loud) now. I hope that doesn’t take away from our home court advantage.
by calbear112 on Jul 13, 2009 6:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah, it sucks. as i’m from the bay area, i was always able to make it into berkeley over the holidays to attend basketball games, but a lot of other students weren’t able, and it really showed in the diminished attendance on The Bench. alums and other season ticket holders will still show up, especially given the opponents, but i do think our home-court advantage is diminished some over the winter break.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
by ragnarok on Jul 13, 2009 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps the ticket sellers have a different perspective. By scheduling the really big games, ones most likely to bring in fans/alums, they are trying to fill seats during a tough time of year when a lesser game wouldn’t bring in anyone.
you think?
Honk if you think Rags is great!
by AndBears on Jul 14, 2009 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unfortunately
I don’t think we have a say in how the Pac-10 schedule works out – so they schedule it regardless of how it affects ticket sales (and I don’t think they’d put both games with the biggest draw when students are out of town – they want to draw the ancillary student crowd – who don’t have season tickets, but who might come and watch Toby Bailey, Damon Stoudamire and Sean Elliot come to town (are my references dated enough?)
Or Cal students who are from LA should just follow my example – I drove up on several long weekends over winter break to catch Cal games. My parents were not in love with that idea. But I had to do it. Harmon beckoned.
by LeonPowe on Jul 14, 2009 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
Someone is going to have 3 home games in the first 2 weekends. Just a fact— every year, one team is going to get hosed in that respect. Last year it was Washington State. This year it’s Cal. Next year, it’ll be someone else.
As long as it rotates, that’s fine.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 14, 2009 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There is a difference, though, between 3 home games and 3 home games that include Stanford, UCLA, and USC.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah TwistNHook!
www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com
by TwistNHook on Jul 14, 2009 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Iowa State
Will be a good non-conference game. ISU is a top half Big 12 team and probably a NCAA tournament team next year. Brackins is back for another year, and #2 JUCO Gillstrap is coming to ISU. Doug Gottlieb has put Gillstrap as one of the 10 players he’s looking most forward to seeing play next year
by Mark Kieffer on Aug 5, 2009 7:48 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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